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Oh, boy, Bill James has gone and done it again.  His misguided love for all things Chris Davis has reemerged for Paul Goldschmidt.  He gives him the 2012 projections of 93/32/99/.266/9.  Wow.  Maybe after Goldschmidt’s done curing cancer he can also invent a Facebook Dislike button so I can properly grade all of my so-called friends’ posts.  Or if you’re to believe that James line, maybe I should be writing an overrated post for Goldschmidt instead of a sleeper one.  Alas, I’m taking into consideration that most people ignore Bill James or just don’t follow his projections when it comes to fantasy.  (Yes, lots do follow his projections that read this site, but, let’s be honest, you’re the two-percenters.  The average fantasy baseballer (<–my mom’s term!) doesn’t follow Bill James’s projections.  Then when you consider that the ‘smart fantasy baseballers’ that do know about James’s projections also know to ignore them, the percentage gets even smaller.)  So I’m gonna say most aren’t taking Bill James’s line that seriously and Goldschmidt will still have some sleepitude to him.  So what can we expect of Paul Goldschmidt for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

He really can hit 30+ homers and steal 9 bases.  Yup, I said it.  Just about everything else Bill James said is crackers.  But because the rest is crackers it’s gonna make the 32/9 tough to come by.  I’ll explain.  He’s not coming close to .266.  His K-rate last year was 29.9%.  That’s not that far off where it’s gonna be in 2012.  The only hitters with enough ABs to qualify last year that had a K-rate that high were Mark Reynolds (31.6%) and Drew Stubbs (30.1%).  Only one hitter of eleven with a K-rate over 25% hit over .255 (Stanton at .262, who also had some luck to hit that high).  Now not one of those 25%+ K-rate hitters also scored as many as 93 runs.  Stubbs came closest but he also hit leadoff for 408 ABs, something Goldschmidt will not do.  As for RBIs, Ryan Howard was the only one to clear 99 RBIs.  When you hit .250 or lower, as Goldschmidt will do, it cuts back on your counting stats.  The other problem with hitting that low is if a slump gets in his head then he won’t hit 30+ homers or steal 9 bases.  The margin for error is pretty great.  I’d give him a line of 75/27/85/.245/7, which is a decent late round-slash-cheap sleeper at corner infidel with nice upside.

  1. Tony says:
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    This defnitely looks like a guy I’ll be avoiding.

    Nice stats, but almost KNOWING he’s going to bat sub .250? bleh

  2. The Gig says:
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    Good post but I like Goldilocks a bit more than you do. His minor league history showed an improved k-rate as his moved from A+ to AA ball and his BABIP is consistently high….I think pounds the shizz outta the ball. He can take a walk too.
    I am concerned about all the pieces Grey mentions but I think there is some Mini-Donkey/Carlos Pena (the good years) potential here.

    I have him at $10 (cheap) in a deep NL keeper league and I’m trying to decided whether I want to keep him or Kenley Jansen at $4. I like them both.

  3. royce! says:
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    Re Mets from last post: I remember Beltran buckling but I was trying to focus on the good times, which kinda involved forgetting there was a game 7. So thanks for reminding me!

    Re James: he also has Chris Davis K’ing 27% of the time yet hitting .265, so there must be something off with his system generally. It seems to have something to do with his predicting higher BABIPs for all these high K people. Bill James, the Eternal Optimist.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Bill James frowns your way.

    @The Gig: I’d keep the bat.

    @royce!: James usually can’t rate rookies who have only seen half a season. That was what happened to Davis too.

  5. Tony says:
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    @Grey: haha, im staying away from these low avg drains this year.

  6. Terrence Mann says:
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    Rockies get Slowey for a player to be named later. Of course I’m a homer but I like the moves O’Dowd has made the past year – a lot.

  7. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    Sergio Santos to Jays for highly-regarded pitching prospect Nestor Molina.

  8. chata says:
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    @VinWins:

    do the other molina’s know about this ?

    am hoping one them gets the opportunity to refuse to catch for this kid .

  9. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey:

    lmao….considering the numbers he put up while pitching in the Metrodome, he’s still an improvement over everyone on the staff except for Chacin and DLR. Between Slowey, Pomeranz, White, Nicasio, and Rogers, we should at least be able to field a staff this year so we don’t have to pull 19 year olds from AA.

  10. chata says:
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    @chata:

    edit*
    one OF them

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Nicasio should be decent if his neck is okay.

  12. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    @chata: Ha! I’m sure they don’t recognize him as a Molina.

  13. OaktownSteve says:
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    I think the Jays get a closer to lure Fielder ever closer. Who closes for the Sox now. Can’t be Matt Thornton, can it? He bombed like Ishtar.

  14. Grey, these are my projections which solely involve taking Bill James numbers and slicing off a fourth: 70/24/74/.250*/7

    Notice they are remarkably similar to yours.

    I think I have developed the handicap to all Bill James youth projections.

    *1/4 off .066, not .266 ’cause that would give a terrible average

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @OaktownSteve: Bard for right now, but they’re not done.

    @ChrisV82: Pretty solid numbers even after taking off a fourth. Shows you how absurd the original numbers were.

  16. Jobanian says:
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    Grey, shopping Adam Jones right now. Team is willing to offer Morse or Quentin + Tabata or Adam Dunn. Enough value? If so, which combo would you pick?
    5×5 H2H keeper league – 12 keepers.

  17. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Have you done the recap of your (and Rudy’s) pre-season award picks and how they turned out? I like revisiting those, but feel like I may have missed it.

  18. royce! says:
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    Yeah that Slowey to the Rockies trade is ridiculous. An extreme fly ball pitcher in Coors? Maybe they’re planning to only start him on the road. I wish the Padres would have grabbed him, because Slowey and Petco would be a perfect fit.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jobanian: You and the O’s. I’d take Morse and Tabata…

    @Awesomus Maximus: Nah, haven’t recapped them, but I did well this year. Might’ve had my best year.

    @royce!: Yup

  20. Doug Ault says:
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    @OaktownSteve: AA is backing off the 120 mil Beaston said was available, no Fielder in the Chanukah stocking for the Jays, unless it’s a smokescreen

  21. chata says:
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    ok guys .
    here’s the forum thread for your outlandish predictions :
    http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=21869

    don’t tell me that adrian gonzalez is going to hit .290 with 30 HRs .
    go out on a freakin’ limb .
    give us a guess where everyone will think that you’re nuts , but
    will make you appear genius when it comes true .

    think ubaldo will win 26 game this year , and the cy young ?
    neither do i .
    but you get the picture .

  22. Steve says:
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    Lot of talks between Marlins and MLB officials going on. Pujols contract is the subject reportedly.

    How do they have all this money? Something to do with the new stadium?

  23. Anthony says:
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    @Grey: just completed one of those mock drafts on mockdraftcentral. What do you think of my team? OH PS i wasnt aware it was going to be a full 23 picks ughhh heres my team:

    C Carlos Ruiz PHI R23 P3
    1B Ike Davis NYM R17 P3
    2B Dustin Pedroia BOS R3 P3
    2B Jemile Weeks OAK R14 P8
    SS Jhonny Peralta DET R10 P8
    OF Jose Bautista TOR R1 P3
    OF Shane Victorino PHI R6 P8
    OF Carlos Beltran FA R8 P8
    OF Michael Cuddyer FA R12 P8
    OF Melky Cabrera SF R15 P3
    OF Jeff Francoeur KC R19 P3
    DH Michael Young TEX R2 P8
    DH Victor Martinez DET R4 P8
    DH Jesus Montero NYY R22 P8
    SP James Shields TB R5 P3
    SP Ricky Romero TOR R7 P3
    SP Michael Pineda SEA R11 P3
    SP Gio Gonzalez OAK R13 P3
    SP Hiroki Kuroda FA R18 P8
    SP Cory Luebke SD R21 P3
    RP Mariano Rivera NYY R9 P3
    RP Joakim Soria KC R16 P8
    RP Brandon League SEA R20 P8

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: It hasn’t been finalized yet, has it? Yeah, they’re counting on stadium money. Likely will be a fire sale in two years after they win the World Series.

    @Anthony: 10 team?

  25. Steve says:
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    @Grey: No – nothing finalised, but lot of Twitter chatter (Twatter?) about it.

    When you say “stadium money” what do you mean by that? Does MLB give them a whole bunch of money cos they build a new park?

  26. chata says:
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    @Steve:

    i think it means the taxpayers gave them a new stadium ,
    which they turned around and mortgaged to the hilt ,
    so they could spend their new-found money .

    or something like that .

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: They’re banking on future revenue from ticket sales to pay for these contracts. They’re gonna be bankrupt in 3 years.

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: @Steve: Yes, taxpayers paid for the stadium cause the Marlins were ‘poor’ but now are spending everything they have. The federal government is also investigating how ‘poor’ they were.

  29. black_toshiba says:
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    @grey
    How do you feel about Madison bumgarner for 2012? Is he a top 20? Will his K-rate stay at 8+ in 2012?
    Thanks

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @black_toshiba: He’s on the cusp of the top 20, maybe in it once I do my rankings. I like him; no reason to think his K-rate falls.

  31. Steve says:
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    Pagan to Giants for Torres and Ramirez.

    Big whoop.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Be hard to find a much more even trade.

  33. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Maybe it’s actually a fantasy trade between the two GMs and they released it to the media by mistake.

  34. Steve says:
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    And Frank-Frank to the Mets, where he will close. Rauch to set up.

    How cosy.

  35. Steve says:
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    @Steve: By that I mean it’s so nice those two guys get to stay together.

  36. Anthony says:
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    @Grey: Yeah 10 team

  37. Steve says:
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    Angels chasing Pujols now too it seems.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: They’re regular Laurel and Hardy.

    @Anthony: Team looks solid, would prefer a better 1st baseman and you look like on power. Melky and Frenchy kinda bleh. The pitching’s a little upside heavy.

  39. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    i think i’ve gone from being one who couldn’t care less about the marlins ,
    to someone who hopes they lose every game .

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Yeah, saw that about Hanley. So weird, he’s usually such a team player.

  41. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    shirley .

  42. Anthony says:
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    With that team if i had it i would use Michael Young at 1b since he can play all over and can hit. Montero Would be backup Catcher or DH and i think the outfield of Victorino Beltran & Cuddyer is pretty solid. Melky and Frenchy arent too shabby as backups

  43. anthony says:
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    @Grey — what u think of my last comment ?

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Anthony: Sorry, just saw this. Take followups to my newest post in the future. Beltran, Cuddyer isn’t solid. Melky and Frenchy just had career years. You have 4 number three or four outfielders. I wouldn’t want that outfield.

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