Oh, boy, Bill James has gone and done it again. His misguided love for all things Chris Davis has reemerged for Paul Goldschmidt. He gives him the 2012 projections of 93/32/99/.266/9. Wow. Maybe after Goldschmidt’s done curing cancer he can also invent a Facebook Dislike button so I can properly grade all of my so-called friends’ posts. Or if you’re to believe that James line, maybe I should be writing an overrated post for Goldschmidt instead of a sleeper one. Alas, I’m taking into consideration that most people ignore Bill James or just don’t follow his projections when it comes to fantasy. (Yes, lots do follow his projections that read this site, but, let’s be honest, you’re the two-percenters. The average fantasy baseballer (<–my mom’s term!) doesn’t follow Bill James’s projections. Then when you consider that the ‘smart fantasy baseballers’ that do know about James’s projections also know to ignore them, the percentage gets even smaller.) So I’m gonna say most aren’t taking Bill James’s line that seriously and Goldschmidt will still have some sleepitude to him. So what can we expect of Paul Goldschmidt for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
He really can hit 30+ homers and steal 9 bases. Yup, I said it. Just about everything else Bill James said is crackers. But because the rest is crackers it’s gonna make the 32/9 tough to come by. I’ll explain. He’s not coming close to .266. His K-rate last year was 29.9%. That’s not that far off where it’s gonna be in 2012. The only hitters with enough ABs to qualify last year that had a K-rate that high were Mark Reynolds (31.6%) and Drew Stubbs (30.1%). Only one hitter of eleven with a K-rate over 25% hit over .255 (Stanton at .262, who also had some luck to hit that high). Now not one of those 25%+ K-rate hitters also scored as many as 93 runs. Stubbs came closest but he also hit leadoff for 408 ABs, something Goldschmidt will not do. As for RBIs, Ryan Howard was the only one to clear 99 RBIs. When you hit .250 or lower, as Goldschmidt will do, it cuts back on your counting stats. The other problem with hitting that low is if a slump gets in his head then he won’t hit 30+ homers or steal 9 bases. The margin for error is pretty great. I’d give him a line of 75/27/85/.245/7, which is a decent late round-slash-cheap sleeper at corner infidel with nice upside.