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The Allais Paradox:

Gamble A: 100% chance of receiving $1 million.

Gamble B: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, 89% chance of receiving $1 million, and 1% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble C: 11% chance of receiving $1 million, and an 89% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble D: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, and a 90% chance of receiving nothing.

Most people would choose A over B, less money for no risk. Those same people would choose D over C, though, more money for more risk. Below is the expected value for each:

Gamble  Expected Value
A $1 million
B $1.39 million
C $110,000
D $500,000

* Formulas for the above can be found here.

Therein lies the paradox. If you are about expected value, you choose B and D, especially since the probabilities are the same.

You know what the real paradox is, though? I’m Asian, math SAT score was almost-perfect, English SAT score was ESL-esque (I was born in this country), and I get paid (not much) to write and I barely understand the Allais Paradox. No wonder my parents disowned me (They didn’t really, but I wouldn’t blame them if they did).

Damnit SON!!! What is all this mumbo jumbo and what does it have to do with Paxton and Urías?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Chris Davis is barely a replacement player in most standard points leagues. Some might find it hard to believe that a guy that is nearly a lock for close to 40 home runs almost deserves to go undrafted, but it’s the truth. In auction leagues I love to nominate him and let people throw away their valuable auction dollars on Davis. According to my valuations, he is worth one dollar. Yes, to no surprise here are his sale prices in my last few auctions: $13, $3, $12 and $6. That should read $1, $1, $1 and $1. I am very glad it does not because that means that one team in my league now has that many less dollars to spend on players and they spent it foolishly.

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These regrets don’t harken back to the day I drafted Mike Greenwell over Ryan Klesko and his gorgeous sideburns, only to waste a career year from Ray Lankford.  That was a miserable time to be Grey.  I remember not brushing crumbs from my mustache for a month, and little kids coming up to me and asking me if I were homeless.  I felt homeless!  I’ll tell you that!  No, no, these regrets are profound, but not THAT profound.  These are regrets I’m feeling for the last month of fantasy baseball.  Things I wish I did differently with my drafts or my rankings or my projections, but didn’t for one reason or another.  Anyway, here’s my biggest regrets for the 2017 fantasy baseball preseason:

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It’s Sunday, and I’m feeling a little scatterbrained this morning. With my AM coffee I’m looking to cover a wide variety of dynasty/prospect/small righty related content. Some of the low hanging fruits from the tree of prospector knowledge. With such a bountiful harvest it’s a crime not to share. There’s a lot of nothing to talk about, which is a polite way to say spring training stats. If you’re anything like me, then you wish you could press fast forward on the next week, right up until the moment the games begin. Hit play, and immerse yourself in baseball until late October. So far in 2017 I’ve given you my sleepers, my breakouts, my Top 100 Prospects, and my top prospects from every damn team’s farm system. It’s been a busy offseason, to say the least. One that never really ended or began. As good Ole Rust Cohle would say, time is a flat circle. In my case it’s a flat circle that spans 30 minor league systems, and a non-stop quest to know every player that ever played baseball. Today’s post is me just rounding out some performances, and giving you some of my takes on names I feel we’ll be discussing quite a bit in 2017. If there’s anything or anyone you’d like to discuss, then you know the drill, come with any and all Fantasy related questions in the comments.

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Everyone that reads Razzball knows me as the guy that writes about points leagues. Either that, or the dude whose posts you never read. What most don’t know is that I secretly dislike points leagues, at least traditional head-to-head leagues. I might have mentioned that at some point in some post in the past, but that’s a discussion for another day. While I focus on points leagues for Razzball, I studied the art of rotisserie baseball at a young age. I was introduced to fantasy baseball back in 1991 when I was only fourteen years old. It was supposed to be an NL-only league, but shortly before the draft the league fell apart so I took over a team in the AL-only league. My dad paid and I played. The league was all adults and me, and I somehow managed to finish in third place out of ten teams. Nowadays the only place you can find an adult league that allows boys is through NAMBLA. Do yourself a favor and do not google that acronym. Is google and official verb yet?

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Holy moly, are we talking actual live MLB players past their limits this week? Yessiree Bobby Jimmy! Michael Halpern the smooth, and debonair brains behind Imaginarybrickwall.com, and yours truly bust into our Top Dynasty Targets for 2017. While we do blur the lines of reality, and talk some major leaguers, we don’t leave you hanging on the prospect front. It’s an all out attack on the senses. Seriously, this episode is so good you can both smell and taste it. Yummy seafood chowder! Am I selling hard here? Good, because in all truthiness, this is the episode where you get a new Ralph, a subdued Ralph. A Ralph who writes about himself in the third person. Maybe I always do that. We go in on everyone from Marcus Stroman to Tyler O’Neill, it’s the whole lot of dynasty values. So take heed, listen up, and check out the latest episode of the Razzball Prospects Podcast.

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I think the biggest question I always get when I’m out for dinner trying to inconspicuously eat is: Who should I cuff and when should I start drafting handcuffs for the inevitable closerpocalypse?  My advice is always: As soon as I am done eating, I will tell you.  I then proceed to give them the Irish goodbye and smile as I gleefully think that I got the best of them.  But in all seriousness, the biggest question is: Do I cuff myself or do I cuff someone else’s closer?  Me personally, I am a “cuff someone else’s” kinda guy.  This way, it gives you better odds to have another closer.  Where as if you cuff yourself, you are only replacing what you already drafted to expect.  So in theory, look for the best cuff options that you currently don’t own and steal them from someone else.  Leaving them short and for you, the possible plus one.  So with this theory in mind, I have made a list of the guys that I would want to draft first, second and so on.  I have done closer lists with their back-ups, holds guys, and the pecking order and now you get the best handcuff options to draft and sit on.  Enjoy!

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Writing this as I watch the WBC Championship game I might be drafting Marcus Stroman on a few teams.  The World Baseball Classic is pretty darn entertaining with so many good lineups and watching the US pull off the win has been awesome.  I like that over the past couple weeks I can have it on in the background because it’s competitive baseball, but there’s no fantasy implications so I can just enjoy it.  These are all-stars playing for their country (for the most part, we all know that “team” Italy, Israel and the Netherlands are stretches) and so so so much better than watching spring training games.

Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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Raisel Iglesias slipped in the shower and hurt his elbow and hip, which could cause him to miss Opening Day.  This has to be the nastiest Reds locker room incident since Aaron Harang dropped the soap and fell on Dick Pole while showering.  Previously, Harang had only slipped on a banana peel, ya know, a by-product of being The Harangutan.  The 2nd nastiest Reds locker room incident happened when Johnny Cueto swept Bronson Arroyo’s leg and he fell into Dick Pole.  Now that I think about it, all Reds locker room incidents involved Dick Pole.  So, Church’s elbow and hip sound like they will be fine, but Drew Storen, Michael Lorenzen and Tony Cingrani, likely in that order, could sneak into the closer’s role, and steal the job, since I get the feeling Reds manager, Bryan Price, doesn’t really want Raisel in the closer role indefinitely.  This will likely be a shituation where Raisel, Storen and others share 30 saves, say, 17 saves for Raisel, 9 for Storen and the rest for others.  I’ve updated my fantasy baseball rankings, namely the top 500.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for fantasy baseball:

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As the final days of spring training wind down, and teams make final cuts, opening day rosters begin to take shape. While many re-draft players are busy drafting their teams over the next week plus. Dynasty managers are on the other side of the spectrum, as this is the time when you look to acquire players that you see as potential breakouts. In my humble opinion these weeks leading up to the season can be amongst the most important for managers looking to reload and rebuild. So how should you approach this buying window? Who should you be looking to add? That’s a great question, but a difficult one to answer, because unlike re-draft not everyone is in contention every year. Values in dynasty and deep keeper leagues are dependent upon your team’s current window for competing. This is why player values from manager to manager within your league can vary greatly. So keep in mind, not every player is a fit for every roster. You need to decide what your window is, and build with that in mind. For example, if you have a win now team, with a great deal of aging vets you might be looking to get a little younger. Or you might throw caution to the wind, go full Dombrowski, and buy for today. While a non-competing team might be looking to acquire the best talent under 25, no matter position. Regardless of where your team falls on the competitive spectrum, it’s important to identify players you want to own, and those you’re looking to acquire. Below is a list I’ve made of the players I want to own. So all those in leagues with The God Emcee (that’s me) look away. I’m sure that worked. Now that my leaguemates are out of the room, let me just say I love these players. Some are prospects, while others are young vets. These are the guys I can see taking a step forward. These aren’t all that players with breakout upside, but they’re the ones I felt like writing about.

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