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Looking over Shortstop in OBP leagues is not pretty. Even the top-5 gets ugly quick; Troy Tulowitzki (.432), Hanley Ramirez (.369), Ben Zobrist (.354), Danny Santana (.353), and Starlin Castro (.339) round out the top-5. The top guys tend to have good OBP numbers and will be a plus at the position while there are a few guys throughout the rankings that will kill your OBP…

Ian Desmond, not quite an OBP killer – I originally started this year thinking there is no way I can recommend or draft Desmond, but here I am. I know that he is going as the second SS off the board and is ranked at worst 3rd almost anywhere but you may be able to get him at a bit a bargain in an OBP league and he may not be as bad as you would think.

YEAR R HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP
2012 72 25 73 30 21 0.292 0.335
2013 77 20 80 43 21 0.280 0.331
2014 73 24 91 46 24 0.255 0.313

Those are his numbers over the past three years. He clearly had a dip in OBP and AVG in 2014 but I like to look at averages. His average OBP over the past 3 years is .326 and while that isn’t top at the position by any means it is still top 10 last year and again in the top 10 at the position vs Steamer projections. He isn’t a big walk guy but his walk percentage has increased each of the last 5 years. His OBP is tied closely to his AVG but I think that has a chance to come up as well. So an increased or sustained walk rate and an increased AVG back to his career number, plus his seemingly in the bank 20/20 season makes him good option in OBP leagues as well as standard leagues. I am targeting him in the late second or early third, and due to his down OBP year you may be able to snag him later and get a nice bargain.

 

Alexei Ramirez, an OBP bust – Over his career, Alexi has been all over the place on HR’s and SB’s while I am not as pessimistic as most seem to be going into this year for his power and speed numbers I think in OBP leagues he is going to be an easy bust.

YEAR R HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP
2012 59 9 73 16 20 0.265 0.287
2013 68 6 48 26 30 0.284 0.313
2014 82 15 74 24 21 0.273 0.305

Just looking at the numbers over the past three years you can clearly see 2014 as the outlier. For power I look at his career and other than 2012 and 2013 he has hit at least double digit HR’s so I think it isn’t a stretch to think 2014 is more what to expect than ’12 or ’13. For SB’s he has been in the mid-teens most of his career and think again he reaches that in 2015. So we are looking at a player that hits 10-15 HR’s and steals 15-20 SB’s but I still think in OBP leagues he is going to bust. His three year average in OBP is .302 and his career average is .314 and that is just something I couldn’t draft on my team anywhere close to where he is going. Just a few names projected to finish with a better OBP: Jean Segura, Chris Taylor, and Jose Iglesias. Shortstop isn’t a great position for OBP but he is going to drag you down and at 33 my optimism for his power and speed numbers seem like a best case. I am hoping to have SS covered by the time he is going (ADP:107) or I am waiting to get a shortstop later.

 

Jed Lawrie, late round target – I’m not willing to go full sleeper on him mostly due to his age. While I don’t think 2014 signaled the end, I also don’t think he has a breakout year coming. I am however taking the risk for a mild bounce back in 2015. He is going as the 29th SS and 300 overall, so basically undrafted.

YEAR R HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP
2012 43 16 42 43 2 0.244 0.331
2013 80 15 75 50 1 0.290 0.344
2014 59 6 50 51 0 0.249 0.321
Just looking at the numbers for the last three years he’s been consistent at two things: taking about 50 walks and not stealing bases. Steamer has him projected to be the 7th best SS in OBP and his three year average (.333) would put him 6th last year. He isn’t going to be a top-5 SS by any stretch, but I think he will hit double digit HR’s and walk enough to have a decent/good OBP for the position. If I missed out on the top guys I am very likely waiting to grab Jed near the end of my drafts.