Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

I figured it was finally time to switch things up and have an OBP-only post every now and then (thanks to the many of you who commented with this idea). This will be an attempt to run through a lot more players, instead of the usual handful I cover in the OPS posts. I’m still working through the format and how often I’ll do this, so feel free to chime in with your thoughts in the comments. We’re only one month into the season, so it’s important not to overreact, but there are quite a few players that have produced interesting results. Here’s my take for what it means in OBP leagues:

Anthony Rizzo is doing his best Joey Votto impression. With a significantly increased walk rate, decreased strikeout rate, and increased line drive rate, his OBP should exceed his pre-season projections. He may not be able to sustain his current .407 OBP, but I could see him getting on base at a .380 clip the rest of the season if he maintains his 2014 approach.

Speaking of Votto, he’s managed to up his walk rate to a career-high 20.6%, which is beyond amazing. The craziest thing is that his .444 OBP could increase for the rest of the year, especially if his BABIP increases to his normal rate.

Jason Heyward seems to continually frustrate his fantasy owners. His current .292 OBP is an insult to those expecting him to be an asset in that category but, despite his increased strikeout rate, I’m confident that he’ll improve. The main thing for me is that he’s not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone more than last season which, combined with many of his other numbers resembling last year, lead me to believe that he’ll approach last season’s .350 OBP going forward.

Jean Segura’s 2% walk rate says all you need to know about him. His BABIP could improve going forward, raising his current .286 OBP, but last season’s .329 OBP looks out of reach.

Starlin Castro resembles the player we knew before last season’s disaster. He still doesn’t walk much, but a decrease in his strikeouts and an increase in his line drive rate should allow him to maintain his current .339 OBP.

Billy Butler had been dependable for so long that his .292 OBP this year is flabbergasting. I have no doubt that he’ll improve, but not to his normal level. The problem is that he’s hitting more ground balls and a man of his stature (carriage?) will have a hard time getting any infield hits, so I doubt that his OBP will exceed .350.

I’m not really worried about Wil Myers. There aren’t any red flags, so I think he’ll approach at least a .340 OBP for the rest of 2014.

I mentioned Carlos Ruiz last week, but I’ll mention him again because his current .416 OBP isn’t as much of a fluke as it would seem, considering the several ~.380 OBP years he had prior to 2013.

I mention Carlos Quentin and Josh Willingham too much, but they’re both worth keeping an eye on because they could provide you with a nice OBP boost when they return. They could be available on your waiver wire…

I don’t trust Yasiel Puig or his .396 OBP, but I trust Mark Teixeira’s .385 OBP even less. On a happier note, I’m encouraged by the 2014 version of Desmond Jennings.

Since when did Jay Bruce learn to walk? Seriously, his 19% walk rate is more than double his 2013 rate. I didn’t realize the Dusty Baker effect was so strong…

 

You can find Tom Jacks on Twitter @votetomjacks. He spends far too much time praying for the Cubs, planning his next concert, and wondering if there’s an instrument that could ever rival the theremin (there isn’t).

  1. Birdmann says:
    (link)

    would you try to trade Prince for Albert keeper league, I have one more season with Prince. I was hoping for big things from his move to Texas but I am starting to worry. If I made the deal I’d get stuck keeping Albert which I am not to keen on, but I go for the win not the keeper every year. I am also in first so Prince isn’t killing me yet. Thoughts? My league does avg. not OBP but I find your article valuable as a good OBP means good stuff across the board and many of my league mates don’t pay attention to it since it isn’t a stat we keep.

    • Birdmann says:
      (link)

      @Birdmann: I also pay attention to K per 9 on the pitching side we only use SO, great for picking up MR. I feel that you should always look at other stats than the ones your league uses to gauge a players value. Another one that has been a good one XBH per at bats, J-FOH brought that one to my attention a few years back. Two first and a third place finish in the last four years makes me feel good, I don’t want to talk about last year.

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
        (link)

        @Birdmann: Right, stats like that are better measures of performance than the ones used in a standard 5×5 format. XBH is one of my favorites.

    • Peter Nincompoop says:
      (link)

      @Birdmann: I wouldn’t be too keen on keeping Pujols either, but at this point you can’t argue with the Pujols/Fielder comparison. Fielder looks absolutely terrible right now and there’s nothing promising that suggests a rebound is imminent. He looks like an aging 300lb 1st basemen…wait a minute. I bailed on him a couple days ago in a similar league, packaging him along with Scherzer and Uehara for Cargo and Minor. I’d take a walkabout with Pujols if I were you.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Birdmann: I’d hold right now. I think there’s a good chance Fielder improves and Albert doesn’t maintain his current performance, making them a lot closer than they are now. Add in that you’d be stuck keeping Albert next year, which you don’t want, and I wouldn’t make the deal.

  2. The Theory says:
    (link)

    I am in two leagues that feature OBP-esque stats (without actually using OBP), so I’m definitely in the market for these kinds of articles. Daily. I want them daily.

    …ok, that is probably too much to ask for, huh?

    • Birdmann says:
      (link)

      @The Theory: does you league count walks?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @The Theory: Thanks for the feedback. I write posts every week, so I’m leaning towards writing OBP posts at least a couple times a month. Maybe every other week? And I plan to incorporate some OBP info in the OPS posts, so it will get some coverage every week.

  3. cubsin2020 says:
    (link)

    Tone the Bone Rizzo. Who would’ve thought he would improve so much? Gray and every Cubs fan, that’s who. I hope the Votto comp comes to fruition. Nice Job Tom Jacks.
    In my h2h leagues I use obp in claiming drafting and trading for players. Now, I don’t know if there is any science to it. But I always do well. I would like to see at least one of these a week until a weeks worth of at bats won’t affect obp much.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @cubsin2020: Thanks for the feedback. As a fellow Cubs fan, Rizzo’s performance has me ecstatic.

  4. Scott says:
    (link)

    Standard 5×5 with BA (not OBA), Springer or Aramis Ramirez?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Scott: Aramis, as long as it’s not a keeper.

  5. Matt B says:
    (link)

    Thanks for the OBP article! Wondering if I should go after Rizzo…?
    12 team, weekly h2h 1-win 5×5 (OBP instead of AVG), C/1B/2B/SS/3B/OFx3/Util for bats. Also keeper league

    1) 1B Hosmer has been a black hole for me, do I give up on him? I have Big Papi at Util so if I trade for Rizzo, Hosmer goes to the bench.
    2) If so, I have 2B Aaron Hill (2B Profar on DL), 3B/2B A Rendon (3B R Zimmermann on DL, Middlebrooks on bench). Would you swap Rendon for Rizzo?
    Thanks!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Matt B: I wouldn’t give up on Hosmer, but I really like the idea of trading Rendon for Rizzo.

      • Matt B says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: Thanks. What about giving up Teheran for Rizzo in an OBP keeper?
        I could maybe sell Hosmer down the road for another arm. Owner wasn’t biting for a Rendon deal. I do have an offer of Hamels for Rendon.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Matt B: I’d trade Teheran for Rizzo. The Hamels deal isn’t a bad deal, but I’d probably hold. I think waiting until Hosmer boosts his trade value is a good move.

  6. Malon says:
    (link)

    Appreciate the OBP article. Keep ‘em coming.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Malon: Thanks, will do!

  7. Wade Boggs says:
    (link)

    Who wins. Zimmerman (3b) and fister for marte and Cingrani? Wondering thought on fister and Cingrani for ROS in general?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Wade Boggs: I’d take the Fister side since I’d prefer him over Cingrani ROS.

  8. SwaggerJackers says:
    (link)

    Yes! #OBPpost

    Happy to say I own Rizzo in both of my OBP leagues.

    I also have Abreu in both leagues and while he’s hitting a ton of bombs, he isn’t walking as much as I hoped.

    Who would you recommend for steals the rest of the way in OBP? Rajai Davis, EYJ, Revere. I worry about playing time for EYJ and Rajai.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @SwaggerJackers: Hey! Good times with Rizzo. I’d go with Revere.

  9. centerfield_ballhawk says:
    (link)

    I’m thinking about offering an owner in my league my Segura for his Lowrie. 6×6 OBP. Good move or hold?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @centerfield_ballhawk: It’s ok in a redraft league, but you’d be selling low and buying high, which isn’t ideal

Comments are closed.