We’re almost there. Opening Day is just 11 days away (10 if you’re counting down to the Cubs/Cards game on Sunday night), which means that fantasy draft season is in full swing. For those of you who are veterans of the FBB world, you know that draft day can be quite unpredictable. Average draft positions can mean next to nothing at times, particularly in competitive leagues. What should you do if Kershaw falls into your lap unexpectedly at the turn? How about if pitching is flying off the board and productive hitters start dropping an extra round or two below ADP (or more importantly, your own personal rankings)?
If you find yourself in the latter position, fear not. Resist the urge to get caught up in the SP positional run and load up on the hitting values that fall your way. Maybe even grab an elite RP like Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, or Greg Holland if the price is right. But what starting pitchers should you target after that?
That brings us to this week’s exercise. In daily formats with shallow benches that allow you to stream pitching to your heart’s content (e.g. the RCL format), it’s important to build a foundation of low WHIP, low ERA pitchers to offset the potential ratio damage that can be inflicted in those categories by a streamer off of the waiver wire. How do you identify the SPs who are most likely to be ratio helpers for your team? Let’s take a look at today’s search criteria:
2013-14 MLB seasons
Minimum 100 IP
BB% of less than 7%
K/BB ratio of at least 3
xFIP of 3.75 or under
The thinking here is relatively simple – limit the number of walks allowed which limits the amount of baserunners and thus run-scoring potential for the opposing team. There’s no strikeout requirement here other than the amount of Ks needs to be triple the amount of walks allowed. If a pitcher can’t punch out at least a few hitters, he’s not terribly useful in the majority of formats regardless of how low his ratios might be. The xFIP criterion is included to try to eliminate defensive and luck factors when evaluating a pitcher’s performance.
As always, for context and peace of mind, here are the MLB averages for starting pitchers during the 2013-14 campaigns:
Season | K% | BB% | K-BB% | K/BB | HR/9 | BABIP | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 18.90% | 7.40% | 11.40% | 2.54 | 1.01 | 0.295 | 1.31 | 4.01 | 3.91 |
2014 | 19.40% | 7.10% | 12.30% | 2.73 | 0.91 | 0.296 | 1.27 | 3.82 | 3.78 |
There are 47 starting pitchers who fit the criteria. Since that’s a fairly large number of qualifiers, we’ll split the results up into two tables. Table #1 features the 24 pitchers who produced a BB% of 5.5% or lower, and can be seen here (sorted by BB%):
Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | K/BB | HR/9 | BABIP | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cliff Lee | PHI | 304 | 23.90% | 3.60% | 20.40% | 6.68 | 0.86 | 0.308 | 1.11 | 3.08 | 2.84 |
David Price | – – – | 435 | 24.10% | 3.70% | 20.40% | 6.49 | 0.85 | 0.303 | 1.09 | 3.29 | 2.98 |
Phil Hughes | – – – | 355 | 20.60% | 3.80% | 16.80% | 5.39 | 1.01 | 0.323 | 1.25 | 4.11 | 3.66 |
Brandon McCarthy | – – – | 335 | 17.80% | 3.80% | 13.90% | 4.65 | 1.02 | 0.325 | 1.3 | 4.24 | 3.23 |
Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 136.1 | 26.00% | 3.90% | 22.10% | 6.71 | 0.99 | 0.299 | 1.06 | 2.77 | 2.58 |
Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 398.2 | 21.50% | 4.00% | 17.50% | 5.38 | 1.02 | 0.268 | 1.03 | 3.05 | 3.08 |
Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 413 | 20.60% | 4.10% | 16.50% | 4.97 | 0.7 | 0.286 | 1.08 | 2.96 | 3.3 |
Doug Fister | – – – | 371.2 | 16.60% | 4.40% | 12.20% | 3.76 | 0.77 | 0.301 | 1.21 | 3.12 | 3.61 |
Matt Harvey | NYM | 178.1 | 27.70% | 4.50% | 23.20% | 6.16 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.93 | 2.27 | 2.63 |
Dan Haren | – – – | 354.2 | 19.70% | 4.50% | 15.30% | 4.39 | 1.4 | 0.288 | 1.21 | 4.34 | 3.7 |
Adam Wainwright | STL | 468.2 | 21.50% | 4.60% | 16.90% | 4.68 | 0.48 | 0.287 | 1.05 | 2.67 | 3.06 |
Matt Shoemaker | LAA | 126.1 | 23.00% | 4.60% | 18.40% | 5 | 0.64 | 0.291 | 1.06 | 2.78 | 3.24 |
Hiroki Kuroda | NYY | 400.1 | 18.00% | 4.70% | 13.30% | 3.79 | 0.9 | 0.281 | 1.15 | 3.51 | 3.57 |
Yusmeiro Petit | SF | 110.2 | 25.30% | 4.90% | 20.40% | 5.18 | 1.14 | 0.308 | 1.16 | 4.47 | 3.24 |
Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 434.1 | 28.40% | 5.00% | 23.40% | 5.67 | 0.41 | 0.263 | 0.89 | 1.8 | 2.51 |
T.J. House | CLE | 101 | 18.80% | 5.20% | 13.60% | 3.64 | 0.89 | 0.336 | 1.34 | 3.39 | 3.09 |
Rick Porcello | DET | 375.1 | 17.30% | 5.20% | 12.10% | 3.31 | 0.86 | 0.307 | 1.26 | 3.88 | 3.45 |
Felix Hernandez | SEA | 440.1 | 26.70% | 5.30% | 21.40% | 5.04 | 0.63 | 0.284 | 1.02 | 2.55 | 2.58 |
Tim Hudson | – – – | 320.2 | 16.30% | 5.30% | 11.00% | 3.07 | 0.7 | 0.293 | 1.21 | 3.73 | 3.56 |
John Lackey | – – – | 387.1 | 20.20% | 5.40% | 14.80% | 3.74 | 1.16 | 0.293 | 1.22 | 3.67 | 3.49 |
Chris Sale | CWS | 388.1 | 28.00% | 5.50% | 22.50% | 5.11 | 0.83 | 0.285 | 1.02 | 2.67 | 2.9 |
Corey Kluber | CLE | 378 | 26.00% | 5.50% | 20.50% | 4.76 | 0.69 | 0.321 | 1.16 | 3 | 2.77 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | 344 | 20.70% | 5.50% | 15.20% | 3.76 | 0.6 | 0.306 | 1.2 | 3.17 | 3.27 |
Marcus Stroman | TOR | 120.1 | 21.10% | 5.50% | 15.60% | 3.81 | 0.45 | 0.3 | 1.15 | 3.29 | 3.16 |
Some thoughts and observations on these results:
• Just 4 out of these 24 qualifiers posted a WHIP above 1.22, while 15 of these SPs posted a WHIP of 1.16 or less.
• Kershaw, Harvey, Felix, Sale, etc. A who’s who of elite talent appears here. Limiting baserunners and luck seem to lead to success. Who knew?
• An unfortunate knee injury recently suffered by Stroman has prematurely ended his 2015 campaign. The outlook for Cliff Lee doesn’t look much better. Ryu is currently experiencing shoulder discomfort and is likely to begin the season on the disabled list. Just a reminder of how unnatural it is for the human body to throw a baseball 90+ mph several dozen times every five days (not to mention the breaking stuff).
• T.J. House looks to have an inside track on a rotation spot for the Cleveland Indians this season. His 60.5% GB% as a starter last season would’ve been the 2nd highest mark in all of baseball had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Maintained an extremely low 5.2% BB% as well, as you can see in the table above. Looks like a player to target in the later rounds.
Now let’s take a look at Table #2 which features the SPs who produced a BB% between 5.5% and 7%:
Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | K/BB | HR/9 | BABIP | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kris Medlen | ATL | 194 | 19.20% | 5.70% | 13.50% | 3.37 | 0.79 | 0.297 | 1.22 | 3.11 | 3.55 |
Zack Greinke | LAD | 380 | 23.10% | 5.80% | 17.30% | 3.99 | 0.76 | 0.294 | 1.13 | 2.68 | 3.06 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 406.2 | 21.50% | 5.80% | 15.70% | 3.71 | 0.97 | 0.277 | 1.12 | 3.03 | 3.74 |
James Shields | KC | 455.2 | 20.00% | 5.90% | 14.00% | 3.36 | 0.85 | 0.297 | 1.21 | 3.18 | 3.64 |
Andrew Cashner | SD | 289 | 18.10% | 6.00% | 12.10% | 3.03 | 0.56 | 0.272 | 1.12 | 2.83 | 3.56 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 398 | 27.10% | 6.20% | 20.90% | 4.37 | 0.88 | 0.292 | 1.09 | 3.08 | 2.83 |
Mike Minor | ATL | 350 | 20.70% | 6.20% | 14.50% | 3.34 | 1.11 | 0.294 | 1.23 | 3.86 | 3.75 |
Madison Bumgarner | SF | 418.2 | 24.90% | 6.30% | 18.70% | 3.98 | 0.77 | 0.275 | 1.06 | 2.88 | 3.15 |
Cole Hamels | PHI | 424.2 | 23.10% | 6.30% | 16.80% | 3.67 | 0.74 | 0.295 | 1.15 | 3.05 | 3.33 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | 208.1 | 20.70% | 6.30% | 14.40% | 3.3 | 0.82 | 0.283 | 1.17 | 3.41 | 3.48 |
Collin McHugh | – – – | 177.2 | 22.70% | 6.30% | 16.40% | 3.61 | 0.86 | 0.281 | 1.14 | 3.65 | 3.3 |
Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 124 | 22.70% | 6.30% | 16.50% | 3.64 | 0.58 | 0.324 | 1.28 | 4.35 | 3.07 |
Jon Lester | – – – | 433 | 22.20% | 6.40% | 15.80% | 3.45 | 0.73 | 0.299 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.49 |
Mat Latos | CIN | 313 | 20.10% | 6.50% | 13.60% | 3.11 | 0.66 | 0.289 | 1.19 | 3.19 | 3.7 |
Jose Quintana | CWS | 400.1 | 20.60% | 6.50% | 14.10% | 3.17 | 0.74 | 0.3 | 1.23 | 3.42 | 3.62 |
Gerrit Cole | PIT | 255.1 | 22.90% | 6.50% | 16.40% | 3.5 | 0.63 | 0.31 | 1.19 | 3.45 | 3.2 |
Derek Holland | TEX | 247.1 | 20.70% | 6.60% | 14.10% | 3.13 | 0.73 | 0.306 | 1.25 | 3.13 | 3.67 |
Anibal Sanchez | DET | 307 | 24.20% | 6.70% | 17.50% | 3.62 | 0.38 | 0.294 | 1.13 | 2.93 | 3.18 |
Scott Kazmir | – – – | 348.1 | 22.50% | 6.70% | 15.80% | 3.36 | 0.9 | 0.303 | 1.23 | 3.77 | 3.49 |
Max Scherzer | DET | 434.2 | 28.30% | 6.80% | 21.40% | 4.13 | 0.75 | 0.288 | 1.07 | 3.02 | 3.14 |
Homer Bailey | CIN | 354.2 | 22.20% | 6.80% | 15.40% | 3.26 | 0.91 | 0.285 | 1.17 | 3.58 | 3.42 |
Jeff Samardzija | – – – | 433.1 | 23.20% | 6.80% | 16.50% | 3.44 | 0.93 | 0.298 | 1.2 | 3.66 | 3.26 |
Johnny Cueto | CIN | 304.1 | 24.40% | 6.90% | 17.50% | 3.53 | 0.86 | 0.238 | 0.98 | 2.37 | 3.21 |
• 21 out of these 23 SPs produced a WHIP of 1.23 or lower. Fourteen of these players produced an ERA of less than 3.20 as well.
• Andrew Cashner looks like a potential pitcher of interest. Perhaps he will learn to better utilize his fantastic stuff under the tutelage of a proven ace like James Shields (who also qualifies here).
• Collin McHugh, aka Sky’s man-crush, had the 6th lowest WHIP among all SPs who threw at least 100 IP last season. His 18.7% K-BB% (17th best) and 2.73 ERA (t-19th) weren’t too shabby either. Just don’t mention the fact that he qualified for the same list as Fister. Sky wouldn’t be able to take it.
Do you plan on utilizing a hitting heavy approach in the early rounds and targeting any of these ratio-helpers to fill out your pitching staff later on?