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Today I had jury duty for the very first time. As a lot of you know, that means I sat in a room doing literally nothing for eight hours hearing about some guy who accidentally burnt himself, while I’m sitting there wishing the trial was actually for a drug-deal-gone-bad-quadruple-homicide. After about five hours I was simply staring at the hottest fellow juror because at that point I no longer cared what she or anyone else in the room thought of me. As you might assume, all the time I didn’t spend making phony racist assertions and promising that in no way will I be a fair judge, I was fantasizing about fantasy baseball. It was the only thing that kept me from scratching my eyes out, God of War combo-punching everyone, and subsequently getting shot in the face by a security guard, which now seems like it might have been the best course of action because I have to go back tomorrow. “Who the hell is Yoervis Medina and why did he get a save last night?” “Excuse me, sir, phone usage is discouraged.” “LOL, yeah.” In a way, the entire day’s proceedings were eerily similar to a lost fantasy season — as time went on, things seemed bleaker, time moved slower, and windows seemed more appealing. Even if this season is a jury duty of a season, don’t let next year’s be. That’s why we have our beloved keepers — guys on whom we develop creepy man-crushes and who symbolize hope.

The trade deadline is approaching fast, or actually just as fast as anything else approaches. But… still… fast, I guess? Anyway, it’s time to make moves, even if it’s only for 2014. Instead of looking at just two dudes, let’s check out a longer list of guys — that deadline ain’t waiting for this column to come out each week — whom you want to target if you have that slim playoff hope or if you want to stock up on promising keepers who’ll deliver next year, the year after that, and the year after that, assuming they don’t suffer the same fate as James Gandolfini . By the way, if a random Italian stroke can snuff out TV’s veriest epitome of masculinity, then my screen is already dimming. Anyway, let’s gander at some keepers you’ll consider when considering 2014 — some are worth getting, and some will make you love high windows as much as I did earlier today. Keepers, just like Obi-Wan, are sometimes our only hope.

Anthony Rizzo (109.4 ADP in 2013 ESPN leagues, will be around 145.0 in 2014)

After today, we’re starting this thing off with someone who I don’t like for next year.

Remember when there was talk earlier this year that Rizzo might be sent down because he might “need more development”? Well, Dale Sveum is actually a bona fide idiot, so don’t ever listen to what he says. After a gruesome start following his stint on the Italian WBC squad despite spending an entire life in Fort Lauderdale, Rizzo’s strikeout rate has stabilized, his walk rate has surpassed last year’s by 2.9%, and he’s driving 49% of his hits for extra bases — an unsustainable number that is still as sexy as that girl I was staring at in the courthouse.

There’s a cap here. I don’t think Rizzo’s one of those 32-37 homer guys that a lot of people hoped he was, but his 25-28-homer power that he showed in the Minors is obviously legitimate. He’s young and he’s definitely acquirable.

Get him, especially if his friend…

Starlin Castro (37.4, similar next year)  turns back into Starlin Castro, which he will.

BAbip is used so carelessly by so many people that it’s almost become as superficial a stat as BA or OBP, but Starlin’s average when he puts it in play is too low for it to remain. A 19% line-drive rate, which is legit, although perhaps not by Starlin standards, doesn’t fit with a .283 BAbip, especially considering Castro’s speed. He’s fast, yet, ironically, this is the part where I take a shot at his speed.

At some point, perhaps when idiot Dale Sveum is fired, someone will realize that when a player steals 25 bases in 38 attempts and is hitting in front of Anthony Rizzo, it’s not worth attempting to steal at all. He’s 6-for-7 this year, which is dandy, but don’t be fooled — he’s been getting caught too much his whole life.

Potentially a perennial top-3 SS, and he doesn’t have that frustrating injury history. I like him for a resurgence in the second half — a resurgence that will at least keep his stock where it was this year, and a resurgence you’ll want to precede.

Wil Venable (doesn’t matter) and Ben Revere (147, 130 next year)

In leagues that count “LOLZ there’s no chance you’re getting a hit here” catches, keep Venable. In any other league, disregard. This is also a simple way to get this catch into this post.

Wil Venable's disregard for death

courtesy of Triples Alley

Venable is waiver-wire jailbait — he’s an underage girl that will screw you then screw your team, that is — but Revere has value going forward because you got him for in exchange for your last disembowelment and he gives you the freedom to go for some of those Prince Fielder types without worrying about lost speed. Well-rounded teams with a handful of 10-to-15 SB guys are good, but you always want one of those fast super-freaks. Revere has much higher speed potential than the guy I spoke about last weekStarling Marte. He’ll have a speed explosion in the second half this year and is getting better.

You’ll also want him in those LTNCYGAHH leagues.

Ben Revere diving catch

courtesy of The Big Lead

Big Lead should take some GIF-making tips from Triples Alley, or at least ask him what software he uses. And which catch was better?

Andrelton Simmons (186.4, same in 2014)

God I love guys who don’t strikeout. God I hate guys who can’t draw a walk. What I hate even more? Guys with speed who insist on hitting the ball in the air because they hit a deep homer once and think they’re cool. Cough, Desmond Jennings. Cough, Simmons after his sweet World Baseball Classic.

After a GB/FB rate of 1.30 last year, Simmons notched himself the leadoff spot in Atlanta’s Opening Day lineup, but now that rate’s at 0.81 and Simmons OBP has dipped 50 points. His BAbip is lower despite hitting line-drives at a 4% higher rate — yes, LD% is shoddy — and he’s not stealing bases.

Perhaps he’s eating Upton grits or just wants to be crappy like his frand Jason Heyward, but a shortstop without much power and who doesn’t care about it isn’t someone you want to hold on to. In a few of my leagues people are banking him for next year — don’t be one of those guys. Remember, his hot WBC raised his stock this year and now he’s disappointing.

Anthony Rendon (N/A)

326 Minor League plate appearances, 12 homers and a .269 BA in those 326 Minor PAs, an inauspicious injury history that is cropping up yet again this season. Like, what? In Rendon’s spurious defense, he was beloved by GMs around the league, was Baseball America’s #30 prospect pre-2013, and basically has a 1:1 BB:K Minor ratio that denotes a Major approach. That BB:K is inflated to 8:16 during his Nationals time this year, which doesn’t mean much, but am I the only one who thinks inexperience and injuries is disheartening? This guy was basically Axe Body Sprayed — I do play in one league with only bikini-clad women, I just tuck it in — in my leagues upon his call-up earlier this year, and people suspect some super-freak guy with a superior hit-tool. This 2b experiment that has him as the team’s everyday second-baseman obviously sprouts that value, but what could he be next year? Jason Kipnis with a few extra BA notches, less power and less speed? Give me a break. A break, I say.

With a guy like Rendon we can’t look at ADP, but his perceived value right now is probably in the 140.0 range — right around guys like David Freese. Rendon isn’t worth that and you’d be getting gouged for an unpromising guy.

Next week: a look at some pitchers at the deadline with the intention of next year. Hint: Chris Sale won’t be on it.

Follow sha keeper boi on Twitter @TerseRazzball. It’ll help his low self-esteem and he’ll talk to you during his jury duty.

 

  1. Kevin says:
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    Send Marte and Moreland (both not starting) for Adam Jones? Fair offer?

    I can pick up Crawford in a 10 team mixed redraft. Thanks

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Kevin: I’d do it if they’re not starting, but Crawford still hurt.

      • Kevin says:
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        @Terse:

        K, thanks.

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @Kevin: Friend, I am here to serve.

  2. KB says:
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    Was offered R.Zim/G.Parra/H.Bailey for A.Rizzo/C.Headley. 16-Team Keeper – I already have Votto. What do you think?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @KB: I think I’d pull the trigger

  3. Ewokian says:
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    No that’s like offering two plus sized JC penny models for a Victoria’s Secret angel.

    • Kevin says:
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      @Ewokian:

      I assume that’s a reply to my post. I could offer Choo instead of Marte…my other OFs are Giancarlo,Holliday,Ellsbury.

    • Kevin says:
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      @Ewokian:

      I assume that’s a reply to my post. I could offer Choo instead of Marte…my other OFs are Giancarlo,Holliday,Ellsbury.

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @Kevin: Hey man, some peeps love themself a chubber. Two chubbers? chubber sammich

    • Jack says:
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      @Ewokian: The “i’ll go with quantity over quality” technique, just leaves you with another manager hating you more.

  4. Big Kev Nasty says:
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    Hello?!???! Not even a whisper about Shelby Miller? Guy had to have gone undrafted in 99% of leagues. #StudCity #KeeperAllDay

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Big Kev Nasty: look at the second-to-last paragraph

  5. Blue says:
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    I’ve got Matt Harvey as an 11th round single-year keeper and Shelby Miller as an 16th round. I’m thinking of shopping them for a non-keeper stud pitcher and a first/second round talent non-keeper bat. That sound like a reasonable starting point?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Blue: It does if you’re in contention right now, but Harvey as an 11th-rounder is pretty sexy. always play for this year if you have chances at success, though

      • Blue says:
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        @Terse: I’m in second but desperately need more HR/RBI/SB. I’d trade ‘em both to win this year in the right deals.

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @Blue: If you need to make a move, trade Milley while he’s uber-hot. Harvey is legit and I’d try my best to keep him around.

  6. Hondo says:
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    Jury duty, WTF? Don’t you have a chiropractor to get you out of it like a normal person?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Hondo: I wish. I talked my way out of the first case yesterday and today was for a new one, but fortunately I was able to weasel out of that one too, so now I’m done. I’m starting as an editor at a magazine on monday, which complemented that “bias” I felt toward the cases. Honestly the most boring thing in the world

  7. diaperman says:
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    Who wins here: A-Gon for Samardjiza and G. Cole?

    Standard scoring except OBP instead of AVG, and QS replacing W. Thanks in advance!

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @diaperman: I’m one of those dudes scared of Cole’s BB and K rates, so he’s kind of just a throw-in, streaming option at this point. A-Gon should continue at this rate and his OBP is pretty gerd. AGon wins the trade!

      • diaperman says:
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        @Terse: Thanks!

  8. Shibboleth says:
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    Terse, great write up, but the Rendon opinion was disheartening. I juggle him and Rutledge at 2b (double argh!). Of those two putzes (putzii?) which would you say holds better keeper value?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Shibboleth: Thanks! Much appreciated. And if it’s not “putzii”, it should be.

      Close one: Rendon is the better prospect and has the better approach. I think the Nats like Rendon better than the Rocks like Rutledge, too. Rendon, though, offers NO speed and sub-par pop. In a few years, he’ll be the better BA guy by like 50 points — a lot of points.

      Rutledge has looked like a fool since he’s come up — 1-for-22, 7 strikeouts. He’s making slow progress, but have superior speed and superior power.

      For next year: Rendon.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Shibboleth: I do like dictionary.com’s second definition for “putz” and I’m going to use it often in my columns. “Vulgar. penis.”

      • shibboleth says:
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        @Terse: Haha thanks for the breakdown, Rendon it is. Also, I had no idea of Putz’s meaning… always assumed it was a variant of Schmuck. And I think I got all those from Grumpy Old Men…

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @shibboleth: getting all your knowledge from Grumpy Old Men is alright

  9. in a keeper league, auction 5×5

    a 1$ Taveres for a too expensive to keep Reyes?

    I am weak in AVG, R, SB… so Reyes is just what I need.

    good deal to explore?

    • @gbaked: i say this sitting in 4th place with the best pitching #s in the league. So if I can improve my hitting a bunch I can make a real run at it.

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @gbaked: haha I obviously typed that while you were typing yours. If you can, wait to make sure Reyes avoids a setback

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @gbaked: I’d prefer to make sure Reyes is coming back healthy before I pull that trigger. If your’e in contention, it’s definitely worth considering, but only if you really have a shot.

      Taveras is most scouts’ favorite guy and he can RAKE. $1? That’s freakin awesome for next year.

      • @Terse: cool.

        i was trying to get reyes and fielder for tevares and minor. but he balked at that.

        I will wait and keep trying to let him drop the price.

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @gbaked: I don’t blame him for not biting at that. If those are the categories you need, though, I’d definitely continuing playing for Reyes

  10. k claw says:
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    what’re your thoughts on freddie freeman in a keeper league where we keep 8?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @k claw: Still reducing his K-rate every year and getting on base a lot. Surprisingly, I don’t like the lineup around him, but Freeman is legit. He’s no .317 hitter — he has a nuts 32% LD rate — but .260-.270 and 28 homers perennially? You know it.

      He’s getting the ball in the air more often yet isn’t popping up, and is has improved his approach vs. lefties drastically. Only 23, too.

      Fred <3

  11. Scott says:
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    Thanks for the write up. I noticed these are all NL guys. Who would be some AL guys to target? I like Oswaldo Arcia.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Scott: Hey Scott, no problem.

      Wasn’t even intentional, just was looking at guys I thought were interesting. In regard to Arcia — good gaps power and will spring you 15-20 homers in his apex. Nice on-base skills, too. What’s even better is that many consider Minnesota to have the best farm system in baseball, which should bode well for his near-future surroundings — Byron Buxton is uber-duber-AWESOME AS HELL and might be the #1 prospect in baseball. Considering you got Arcia for so cheap, roll with him.

      • Scott says:
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        @Terse: Sticking with the Minnesota outfielders, what do you think about Hicks in 2014. Obviously got off to a horrific start this season but had 6 HR in May. Should get plenty of steals too.

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @Scott: Hicks might be good someday, but he’s not ready and he’s not close to ready.

  12. Dan says:
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    Hi,

    Joined a league part way through last year that was a keeper, made the play-offs but stumbled. Have made some good pick-ups and trades and am in a very healthy place this year. Will make the play-off but am starting to think about next year.

    Which players should I be considering keeping? , can I package a couple of borderline keepers for a true stud ? Should I even be thinking about next year ? Shoul I just concentrate on winning this year ? There is no money involved just pride. Am also concerned about my rookie pitchers being shut down and struggling in the play-offs. Also we have 3 OF and 2 utils which means I have too many OF and 1B when Kemp comes off the DL.

    My possible keepers, we keep 8, – Trout, Stanton , Kemp , Jones, Choo , Votto , Machado , Rizzo, Wainwright , MadBum , Miller , Latos , Bailey , Chapman , Wheeler, Gerrit Cole.

    Been sent a trade offer my Trout and Wheeler for his Cano and Greinke.

    Advice appreciated,

    An Engliish Dan

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Dan: Hello English Daniel,

      Sweet team, I’m jealous. If you even enjoy your life even a little bit, keep Trouty, buy one of these (http://gamedayr.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Mike-trout_fishhat_promo-angels.jpg) , and giggle.

      Of those 8 I’d be keeping Trout, Jones, Votto, Machado, Rizz, Bum, Stanton, Wainright.

      I think you’d only have to worry Wheeler and cole getting shut down because Miller will be contending for the playoffs.

      After his good first start, I’d flip Wheeler — I’m not a huge fan — and would flip Cole — don’t like him either. thinking about next year isn’t bad, but don’t trade one of your studs for a few good keepers — never do that. Not everything pans out and the longer in the future you look the less chance you have of being correct, obviously.

      That said, if you can trade Kemp, or even Stanton after his 2-homer game for another ace and good fielder, do that. Wheeler, Cole, too.

      • Dan says:
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        @Terse:

        Thanks,

        I have to get myself one of those hats !!!

        The team was a bit of good luck on who I had when I took it over and some good drafting based on Razzball advice (Machado !!!) and a couple of nice trades.

        Am hearing you about Cole. I want Wheeler to suck then the Giants look less like chumps for trading him for 3 months of Beltran.

        Dan

  13. Jason says:
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    Fraizer or Rizzo for the 2nd half?
    Rutledge or Rizzo ?

    Thanks!

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Jason: Rizzo, Rizzo

  14. That's What She Said says:
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    would you offer Tulo and Cueto for Casto and Cain?
    Buy low, sell high type of situation.

      • Fister Furbush says:
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        @Terse: thanks man! will not do it

  15. Oz says:
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    I’m in a h2h points, dynasty league (keep 25/38). Right now I’m debating b/w who I would keep between Anthony Rendon and Nick Franklin. My other options at 2b/SS/3B right now are Zobrist (2b/SS), Utley, Segura, R. Zimmerman. I’m tryin to trade utley or zobrist, but if I can’t I can’t afford to keep everyone above. Who should be kept?? Thanks.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Oz: So many people hate Franklin, but f dose guyz, yo. I really like Franklin and would definitely prefer him over Rendon. The best of all those options is Segura, though.

  16. JK says:
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    HeyTerse,

    14 team mixed, 7×7 H2H categories (wins / Ks / Saves / ERA / OBA / Whip / K/BB)… does Dempster have any trade value? I’m tiredof him. Sometimes I think I should drop pitchers like Dempster and MIlone, forget about wins (and maybe Ks), and start T.Rosenthan and J.Crain for their ratios. Here’s my staff..

    C. Lee
    M.Minor
    J.Lester (trading him today for Adam Dunn)
    T.Milone
    R.Dempster
    M.Leake
    Z.Wheeler
    G.Cole
    M.Gonzalez
    E.Ramiriz (*stash)

    Thanks for your thoughts.

    • JK says:
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      @JK:

      Also, yeah… I punt Saves.

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @JK: Hi JK,

        Dempter is so annoying, He strikes people out but, honestly, how many guys can a veteran walk? I like Milone more than him — they’re actually like the opposite type of pitcher. Alas, I’d drop Cole before I dropped either of them.

        Also, a girl on whom I used to have the biggest crush ever’s initials were JK. Is there any chance you’re a 5’6″ brunette female? If so, call me.

  17. Shawn of the mostly living says:
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    Nice article, especially since I recently traded puig and myers for Rizzo, Castro. I hope our thoughts of resurgence come through. BTW, what do you think of that trade?

  18. Shawn of the mostly living says:
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    One more question, Josh Hamilton. Resurgence likely or stay away? I got a guy in my league looking to deal him. I’m thinking about offering him Andrus and Fernando Rodney for old Joshy.. The Castro trade is killing Andrus’s value and I’m about to give up on saves this year because Rodney is the only guy I have left and not much hope of landing anyone, no one will deal their closers. So, do you like a Andrus/Rodney trade for Hamilton?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Shawn of the mostly living: I wouldn’t give up on saves necessarily. If you’re in a >12-team league you can hope to get lucky, pick up a newly-named closer, and compete in saves. Benoit just got named closer, so try getting him.

      Trading in your situation makes sense, but I don’t think there’s a resurgence coming from Josh. He’ll have some hot week and I’ll look wrong, but he looks like a friggin idiot up there. It’s so ugly.

      Andrus stinks but is better than this, obviously.

      It’s tough, but, yeah, I guess it makes sense. Depends on which direction you’d want to go

      • Shawn of the mostly living says:
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        Everyone is @Terse: Everyone is a hawk in this league. Benoit was stashed by someone over a week ago. I’ve had luck getting bats and SP’s but nothing for newly named closers. I started with Rodney, Putz, Motte. So yeah, right in the ass on those 3. I was thinking Carter Capps, but I don’t really like him, even if he does get the call. Not sure what Im going to do yet. I’m not fan of Hamilton this year, I guess I was just looking for someone to push me in that direction. Maybe I’ll package G.Cole and Andrus for a closer. Hmmm. Thanks for the advice

        • Terse

          Terse says:
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          @Shawn of the mostly living: big time in the ass on that one. I think Medina will get the next Seattle save chance, so don’t go with Capps. He’s not very good, anyway.

          See if you can package cole/andrus for an outfielder. The only closer worthy of those two are pap, kimbrel, grilli. If not, then just plug Elvis in your MI slot

  19. John Mycell says:
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    Here is the deal I have on the table:

    Harvey, Wheeler, Cishek, Utley, Vmart for Adam Jones, Carlos Santana, Greg Holland.

    Which side?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @John Mycell: not much info there, but in vacuum i’d go a.jones side

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @Terse: like Tehold said, see if you can get the guy to throw in Paige

  20. Thorbs says:
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    Keep 20 league…currently starting Pierre, Choo, Bruce, Martin and one of Ethier/Schierholtz in my OF.

    I can flip Braun for J-Up and Myers…leaning towards yes. Thoughts?

    • ShowtimeYork says:
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      @Thorbs: yes I would do it

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Upton side

      • Terse

        Terse says:
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        @Grey: agreed, too thin in OF not to do it

  21. ShowtimeYork says:
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    Would you trad Puig and Minor for Prince Fielder?

  22. Mike says:
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    KROD or Tazawa?
    Thanks!

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Mike: Ugh, yuck. KRod because of his being an official closer. Grey would disagree long-run —and he’s right — and Andrew Bailey is pooping the bed (and did again tonight), but for now I’d say KRod.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      K-Rod

  23. Mike says:
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    Gyorko back next week
    Would u drop Arenado,franklin,or Rendon to pick him up??
    Thx!

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Mike: I’d drop any of the three, but Arenado first

  24. Pope says:
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    Great stuff man, thanks

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Pope: thanks right back at you

  25. hmmm says:
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    would you trade sheilds to get castro?

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @hmmm: If I were looking to the future, yeah. But right now, no probably not

  26. Soaphead says:
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    Would you trade Shelby Miller and Ryu for Fister and Pujols.

    I cant keep either Pujols or Fister.

    Current 1B is Swisher/Lind.

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Soaphead: Tough one because I’m scared Pujols might hit surgery or the DL once LA realizes they don’t have a chance at the postseason. Lind is hitting and I think it’s legit, so I probably wouldn’t because Miller is dealing. If you can get someone sexy for Miller straight up, I’d do it, because he’s not THIS good.

  27. Psychedelic says:
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    If you were to trade Matt Moore in a dynasty (16 team 40 man roster) league, what would you be looking to get in return? Is there a tier of pitchers/batters I should target? If so could you list some names in that range

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Psychedelic: You’d have been better off pushing him before his recent crapstreak, natch, but there will probably be a few buyers who will be willing to ignore it.

      Think in the Ellsbury/Gomez, Bumgarner range. I’d take any of those guys for him. Don’t be tricked into taking some overachiever like Corbin or something.

      I’m with you, frand, I’m not as enamored by Moore as a lot of people are.

      • Psychedelic says:
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        @Terse: Ya I like him some just worried about his velocity drop and inability to throw strikes. The rays have a good track record of developing quality pitchers so I have some hope he can turn it around, he’s still young also. His delivery is as smooth and easy as it gets but not sure he has the “killer” mentality to turn himself into an “ace”.
        Since it’s a dynasty I was thinking there’s gotta be someone who believes in his long term potential.

        Thanks abunch for the response !

  28. Blanky17 says:
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    Need some help on who to keep in my 16 team keeper
    4 PLayers keep, re draft
    Posey
    Belt
    Weeks
    Iglesias
    Hardy
    Choo
    Holliday
    D. Brown
    De Aza
    Y. Betancourt
    N. Franklin
    Arencibia

    Kershaw
    G. Gonzalez
    J. Zimmerman
    Iwakuma
    Nolasco
    Wilhelmsen
    J. De La Rosa

    • Terse

      Terse says:
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      @Blanky17: posey, kershaw, jzimm, franklin

Comments are closed.