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One of the things I love most about baseball, but particularly covering prospects, is when a guy I totally missed on pops up, and exceeds expectations. Sure, I could become obsessed with my own reputation, and shoot down any suggestion that I missed on a player. But what fun is that? So, when it comes to Nick Pivetta, I’m not ashamed to say I didn’t see this coming. Hell, I wrote up 15+ Phillies prospects, and name dropped another 7-8, and didn’t even mention Pivetta. Fangraphs covered 33 Phillies prospects, and Pivetta ranked in at 27! All this to say, that the “out of nowhere” label is somewhat appropriate when it comes to the Phil’s righthander. After an outstanding outing vs the Red Sox at home a few weeks ago, the strikeouts, and numbers in general seem to be trending in the right direction. So why not check him out, and see if we in fact have a breakout bubbling. Before we begin, big shouts to Oaktown Steve, who’s been hyping up Pivetta in the comments the past few weeks like a Sabermetrics Flavor Flav. Only he turned in his giant clock (read that fast), for an abacus, which I’ve heard can get a bit bulky when worn as a necklace. Anyway, let’s get into Pivetta’s last start vs the Cardinals at home, the second time he’s faced the Redbirds in four starts. He’s going today in Arizona, so maybe we’ll see if he’s worth rolling out… Actually no rookie pitcher with a heavy fly-ball approach should be started in Arizona, but that’s just common sense. On to the profile!

 

Scouting Report: A back end fourth round draft pick out of New Mexico Junior College, Pivetta was yet another pitching jewel uncovered by the Nationals scouting department. While he never showed the ability to miss bats in college, or early in his professional career for that matter, the stuff, particularly on his four-seam fastball was always there. He toiled the first few years in the Nationals system before being moved to the Phillies at the deadline in 2015 for closer and noted lunatic Jonathan Papelbon. He struggled through his first 7 starts at AA Reading following the trade, but returned in 2016, and had a very solid campaign between AA and AAA Lehigh Valley. Accumulating a 12-8 record along the way, with a 3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and a 3.1 Bb/9. This is the first time his strikeout % ticked above 25% for any stretch of his career. After missing the cut in spring training he returned to Lehigh Valley ready to dominate, going 3-0 in his first three starts with 0.95 ERA, .174 batting average against, and 24 K’s to 2 Bb’s, across 19 innings.  On April 30th he was called up, making four starts, in which he struggled with command, and to keep the ball in the ballpark (5 homers in 19.1 innings), before being sent back down. Since the recall on June 5th, things have gone much more smoothly, as Pivetta has translated his swing and miss game, and plus command from the minors.

As for his arsenal, Pivetta throws two variations of his fastball, a hard four-seamer, and a sinking two-seamer, at a similar speed to his four-seamer. His fastball has nice movement, even getting some cut from time to time, as well as a little backspin. This is by far his highest volume pitch, as he leans on his heat nearly 70% of the time. The two varations at times are tough to differentiate. He features two breaking balls, and there’s some debate as to whether or not he throws a slider or a hard curve, but there’s definitely noticeable break between the two pitches. His slider has some two plane movement cutting toward the glove-side as it drops. His curveball is more loopy, dropping in with more downward movement than his slider, and clocks in usually in the high-70’s in terms of velocity. He also features a fringe changeup, he throws maybe 3%-7% of the time, that’s a little harder than his slider in the mid-80’s with some backspin. A majority of Pivetta’s contact is of the flyball variety.

 

Nick Pivetta vs. the St. Louis Cardinals, Wednesday June 21st, 2017 Citizen’s Bank Park Philadelphia, Pa

First Inning

Matt Carpenter – 93 MPH fastball on the outside part of the plate, ball 1, fastball at 94 inside to Carpenter, is swung on and missed, strike 1, 94 MPH fastball inside is hit to left for a lazy flyball out.

Dexter Fowler – 94 MPH Fastball inside is swung on and missed, strike 1, some cut on that cheese, fastball 95 high and outside, ball 1, 94 MPH fastball low and outside catches the corner, strike 2, 83 MPH slider, stuns Fowler for Pivetta’s first strike out looking.

Stephen Piscotty – 94 MPH fastball outside to the strike 1, slider at 83 loops inside on Piscotty for ball 1, nasty break in that one, 82 MPH slider catches the middle of the plate, but is hit on the ground to Freddy Galvis at short, he throws to first for the third out.

Excellent first for Pivetta as records a flyout, a strikeout, and a groundout on just 10 pitches. The fastball is great so far, and has already gotten some swinging strikes.

Second Inning

Jedd Gyorko – Starts him off with a fastball low and inside for strike 1, a curveball over the plate snaps down for a ball, 94 MPH fastball too far inside for ball 1, a fastball middle in at 95 is swung on and missed, for strike 2, a 95 MPH fastball on the outside is reached on and hit the other way for a bloop single.

Yadier Molina – 94 MPH fastball low and outside, ball, 95 MPH outside hit foul, strike 1, 94 MPH high and outside, swung on and missed, strike 2, 95 MPH fastball low and outside, gets a check swing by Molina, and the first base ump rings him up.

Tommy Pham – 95 MPH down main st., strike 1, 94 MPH outside is fouled on a check swing, strike 2, slider is taken up in the zone for ball 1, 82 MPH slider on the middle part of the plate for strike 3. Second strikeout looking in the slider

Greg Garcia – 94 MPH fastball high in the zone, strike 1, 80 MPH curveball on the outside for strike 2, 97 MPH fastball in the outside, ball, slider at 81 inside, ball 2, 96 MPH fastball on the outside is hit for flyball to left.

Another strong inning for Pivetta, he’s doing a good job of mixing in the two variations of his breaking pitch with his fastball to keep guys off balance. Lots of looking strikes on the slider, and swinging strikes on the fastball.

Third Inning

Paul Dejong – Fastball over the plate swung and missed, strike 1, a slider on the outside gets another swing and miss for strike 2, fastball at 94 MPH on he outside, fouled off, fastball at 95 on the outside, swung on and missed, strike 3.

Michael Wacha – 94 MPH on the outside, ball 1, 94 MPH fastball on the outside, ball 2, 94 MPH on the middle of the plate to for strike 1, another fastball at 95 over the plate taken for strike 2, 94 MPH on the outside hit foul, 95 MPH on the outside again is fouled off, 95 MPH down and inside, fouled off again, 80 MPH curveball in the outside, taken for ball 3, high fastball at 94 is swung and missed on for strike 3.

Matt Carpenter – 80 MPH slider bounces in the dirt between Carp’s feet, ball, fastball at 93 high and outside for ball 2, fastball at 94 down Main St. taken for strike 1, 95 MPH fastball inside taken for strike 2, 95 MPH on the outside is hit foul, fastball hit to right, looks like it’s headed into the stands but Altherr makes a great catch to scratch the ball from heading into the stands, outstanding play.

Fourth Inning

Dexter Fowler – Fastball down and in, ball 1, another fastball down and in, ball 2, fastball high and outside is fouled off, strike 1, fastball at 94 on the outside corner called ball, fastball low and inside is hit on the ground to first, Pivetta covers the bag for out number 1.

Stephen Piscotty – 94 MPH on the inside, swung on and missed, strike 1, fastball at 95 high and middle is fouled back, strike 2, fastball at 97 high and outside, ball, 85 MPH slider on the outside gets a check swing, he couldn’t hold up, strike 3.

Jedd Gyorko – 84 MPH slider on the outside taken for ball 1, fastball at 95 in the outside, ball 2, 95 MPH fastball high and outside hit to Galvis at short, he makes a great play to his left going into a slide before throwing in front of the bag, Gyorko’s safe.

Yadier Molina – Fastball to the outside, ball, curve on the outside fouled off, strike 1, 94 MPH high and inside, check swing strike 2, fastball at 96 is hit and skied to left center for the third out.

Fifth Inning

Tommy Pham – Fastball at 94 on the outside corner, strike 1, fastball at 94 inside fouled off, strike 2, 95 MPH on the outside, taken for ball 1, slider breaks down over the plate but too low, ball 2, 95 MPH fastball on the outside hit foul, 96 MPH high and inside, fouled off again, 80 MPH curveball on the outside ball 3, full count, fastball inside, fouled off, another fastball this time inside, another foul ball, 95 MPH down Main St., fouled off again, 95 MPH on the outside, foul, 95 MPH fastball on the outer part of the plate is crushed to deep center for a homer. Middle-middle and Pham was all over that one.

Greg Garcia – 87 MPH slider in the dirt, ball 1, 95 MPH inside, fouled off, strike 1, fastball at 95 hit foul again, 79 MPH curve bounces on the outside, ball 2, 81 MPH slider down in the zone gets a swing and miss, strike 3.

Paul Dejong – Fastball at 81 MPH on the outside, strike 1, slider on the outside at 81 gets a swing and miss, strike 2, 95 MPH outside on the black rings him up.

Chad Huffman – Slider at 80 MPH, ball 1, fastball at 94 high and inside fouled off, strike 1, curveball in the outside at 78, strike 2, slider at 83 in the inside, swung on and missed, strike 3.

Serious way to rebound, after a tough at-bat, that led to an eventual homer from Pham. Pivetta struck out the next three batters. He’s really working to both sides of the plate with his fastball, slider, and curve. There’s definitely distinct movement differences between the two, as well as a few ticks on the gun.

Sixth Inning

Matt Carpenter – 93 MPH fastball on the inside, strike 1, got away with one there, curveball at 77 way outside, ball 1, 79 MPH curveball inside, ball 2, 94 MPH fastball low and inside, strike 2, 95 MPH fastball down and outside, taken for strike 3.

Dexter Fowler – 94 MPH fastball inside, swung on and popped up to short.

Stephen Piscotty – 82 MPH slider high and inside, hit foul, strike 1, 81 MPH slider on the outside, just misses, ball 1, fastball on the outside for ball 2, 94 MPH fastball high for ball 3, 94 MPH fastball high and inside, swung on and missed, full count, 96 MPH high and inside, ball 4. First walk!

Jedd Gyorko – First pitch fastball on the outside of the plate is hit the other way down the line in right, home run! What bad luck. Wasn’t a bad pitch, but Gyorko muscled it out of the park.

Yadier Molina – 94 MPH on the outside of the plate strike 1, slider at 82 is swung on and hit for a lazy popup to short.

Summary: What a depressing way to end a very nice start from Pivetta. He was one pitch away from getting out of the inning, but he threw that fastball way off the mark in the 3-2 count to Piscotty, and then Gyorko had a nice swing on a pitch on the outside part of the plate, and voila, two runs. In closing I’ve come away impressed by Pivetta. The fastball is excellent, the slider is a solid secondary offering, and he’s effective mixing in the loopy curveball. He works high and low, in and out of the zone to both righthanders and lefties, keeping hitters off balance. He’s not a comfortable at bat at all (good call OTS). The fastball had some nice cut and backspin on it, and hitters have a tough time picking it up versus his slider and curve. My take, the strikeouts are real, but his flyball tendencies will hurt him in certain matchups.

 

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Max Scherzer, WAS 
2 Chris Sale, BOS
3 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
4 Alex Wood, LAD 
5 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
6 Yu Darvish, TEX
7 Jacob deGrom, NYM  
8 Chris Archer, TB
9 Zack Greinke, ARI 
10 Carlos Martinez, STL  
11 Corey Kluber, CLE
12 Lance McCullers, HOU 
13  Carlos Carrasco, CLE   
14 Robbie Ray, ARI
15 Jake Arrieta, CHC  
16 Luis Severino, NYY
17 Jason Vargas, KC  
18 Jose Berrios, MIN    
19 Johnny Cueto, SF
20 Michael Fulmer, DET  
21 Jeff Samardzija, SF
22  James Paxton, SEA 
23 Jon Lester, CHC
24 David Price, BOS 
25 Sean Manaea, OAK 
26 Gio Gonzalez, WAS 
27 Ivan Nova, PIT 
28 Jon Gray, COL
29 Chase Anderson, MIL
30 Marcus Stroman, TOR  
31 Dan Straily, MIA 
32 J.A. Happ, TOR
33 Lance Lynn, STL
34 Jimmy Nelson, MIL 
35 Gerrit Cole, PIT 
36 Ervin Santana, MIN 
37  Dylan Bundy, BAL
38 Cole Hamels, TEX   
39 Sonny Gray, OAK 
40 Jose Quintana, CHW 
41 Justin Verlander, DET
42 Rich Hill, LAD 
43 Zack Godley, ARI   
44 Brandon McCarthy, LAD   
45 Michael Pineda, NYY 
46 Steven Matz, NYM  
47 Jacob Faria, TB  
48 Taijuan Walker, ARI 
49 Drew Pomeranz, BOS     
50 Jake Odorizzi, TB  
51 Carlos Rodon, CHW    
52 Jameson Taillon, PIT    
53 Kenta Maeda, LAD        
54 Tyler Chatwood, COL  
55  Ariel Miranda, SEA 
56 Jordan Montgomery, NYY
57 Mike Foltynewicz, ATL  
58 Marco Estrada, TOR  
59 Rick Porcello, BOS  
60 Brad Peacock, HOU  
61 Aaron Nola, PHI   
62   Mike Clevinger, CLE
63 Felix Hernandez, SEA    
64 Jeff Hoffman, COL  
65 Edinson Volquez, MIA  
66 John Lackey, CHC      
67 German Marquez, COL   
68 Junior Guerra, MIL    
69 Kyle Freeland, COL   
70 Trevor Bauer, CLE
71  Jose Urena, MIA 
72 Sean Newcomb, ATL  
73 Alex Cobb, TB     
74 Antonio Senzatela, COL    
75 Nick Pivetta, PHI  
76 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY     
77 Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD  
78 Jaime Garcia, ATL
79 Tanner Roark, WAS   
80 Mike Leake, STL  
81 Derek Holland, CWS   
82 Daniel Norris, DET 
83 Ty Blach, SF 
84 Randall Delgado, ARI 
85                         Francisco Liriano, TOR                      
86 J.C. Ramirez, LAA 
87 Scott Feldman, CIN
88 Jesse Hahn, OAK  
89 Mike Montgomery, CHC 
90 Luis Perdomo, SD 
91 Brandon Finnegan, CIN     
92 Dinelson Lamet, SD
93  Zach Davies, MIL      
94 Joe Ross, WAS
95  Adam Wainwright, STL  
96 Andrew Moore, SEA
97 Michael Wacha, STL
98 Jake Junis, KC
99 Sam Gaviglio, SEA 
100 Julio Teheran, ATL

 

Disabled List (Ranking When Active): Madison Bumgarner, SF (3) , Noah Syndergaard, NYM (8), Dallas Keuchel, HOU (13), Danny Duffy (19), KC, Kyle Hendricks, CHC (33), Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (31), Aaron Sanchez, TOR (34), Charlie Morton, HOU (46),  C.C. Sabathia, NYY  (51) Matt Shoemaker, LAA  (54)Andrew Triggs, OAK (61), Trevor Cahill, SD (66), Matt Andriese, TB (68),Vincent Velasquez, PHI (73), Zack Wheeler, NYM  (75)Kendall Graveman, OAK (76), Jerad Eickhoff, PHI (91), Matt Harvey, NYM (99)

Coming Up: Brandon Woodruff, MIL (DL), Chance Adams, NYY, Jose De Leon, TB, Brent Honeywell, TB, Jack Flaherty, STL, Luke Weaver, STL

Dropped off: Kevin Gausman, BAL, Trevor Williams, PIT, Joe Musgrove, HOUErasmo Ramirez, TB, Danny Salazar, CLE, Patrick Corbin, ARI, Chad Kuhl, PIT, Amir Garrett, CIN, Matt Garza, MIL, Tyler Anderson, COL, Jesse Chavez, LAA, Jeremy Hellickson, PHI, Ricky Nolasco, LAAJosh Tomlin, CLEAlex Meyer, LAA, Tyson Ross, TEX, Robert Gsellman, NYM, Joe Biagini, TOR, Wade Miley, BAL  

  • Goodbye Robert Gsellman, I’ll always remember you when I think about the 2017 pre-season, and I’ll always remember how much you sucked!
  • Welcome the Brewers Chase Anderson to the Top 30! Well deserved, but what’s driving it? There’s been a jump in velocity on all four of his pitches, so there’s that. But how much do trust jumps in velocity this year with the new measurement system? Maybe he’s always thrown that hard, amirite? What I do see that’s evolved is his pitch usage. He’s been leaning on the cutter this year 13.2% of the time, compared to his usage of it around 6% of the time last year. It gives him another legit secondary to pair with his curve and change, and has been driving a spike in popups, and downturn in homers, and hard contact in general.
  • I dumped Mike Leake way down week over week. The early season mirage is behind us, and he’s been awful for a month now. In his last 6 starts he’s 0-4 with a 5.15 ERA, and his usual crap-tastic K per numbers. If Leake isn’t sprucing up my ratios he can eat a D. That D stood for drop, what did you think I was saying?
  • I hate Masahiro Tanaka! You can ask The Crabs too, I predicted he’d toss a gem on ’em against the Rangers. What was this inside carnal knowledge I was privy too? Oh, nothing, just seemed like he hadn’t sucked us back into his web of lies recently. Because, you know, he’s just been sucking. I watched the whole start, as it was Tanaka vs. Yu. And my take is this, he was locating well again, had his pinpoint control and command, and was challenging hitters with the high fastball. He’s been vocal about the seam change, so maybe he figured out how to get the right spin back on the splitter.
  • Since returning from the DL on the first of the month, Corey Kluber has been the best pitcher in baseball. Sorry, Alex Woodies… He’s recorded quality starts in all 5 turns, and has dropped a stupid doo-doo dumb K/Bb of 8.67! He’s also recorded double digit K’s in 4 of his 5 starts, and outpitched his 1.29 ERA to the tune of a 0.77 FIP. Slow down Kluby, you killin ’em.
  • Might just be time to drop our pre-season-conceived notions about Gio Gonzalez, and embrace the great wide open. He’s been excellent, and less lucky, in June, actually outpitching his 3.03 ERA to the tune of a 2.73 FIP. He’s really cut down on the walks the last month, amazing what some confidence can do.
  • Oh hey, Mad-Bum’s beginning his rehab assignments. I’ve read that there will be several, but we’ll see. Casue I’m a dang fool, I think he comes back and is the Bumgarner of old, but what do I know.

Follow me on Twitter @Ralphlifshitzbb, and check out my weekly Live Baseball Show on Fantrax YouTube channel Tuesday’s at 9 PM EST

   
  1. lwomack58 says:
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    Would you start J. Montgomery @ CHW today-SON has him -1.3

    CHW pitcher is Holmberg -25

    Looking for the win and decent ratios

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @lwomack58: I’d take a gamble.

  2. Zubaz says:
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    Would you do either of these trades? 1 of them? or Neither?

    Give Rizzo – get Bum and Carpenter

    Give Rizzo and Verlander – get Kluber and DJL

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Zubaz: Hold Rizzo

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Wow, he looked super easy throwing pretty hard, nice breakdown!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Grey: Yeah OTS was right, Pivetta looks legit. Wouldn’t touch him today in AZ tho…

  4. Thomas says:
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    Nice write up. So I should drop Mike Montgomery or Tajuan Walker for Jon Gray. Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Thomas: Montgomery

  5. facebreaker says:
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    Speaking of late round jewels, are there any organizations that are known for turning late round picks (talking 5-10) into prospects? I have a first round player draft in a very deep league where we will draft 200+ rookies, and i want to increase my chances of finding a gem late.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @facebreaker: no one is like the Dodgers, but Red Sox, Giants, Nats, Cubs, and Mets always find some.

  6. RICE says:
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    Great run down!

    Also curious about the Mike Montgomery ranking? Grey has been pumping him up pretty hard all week.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @RICE: Rest of season and I have no idea how many starts he gets. In a vacuum I like him, three pitches last year that had 50% GB rates and 10%+ SwStr% but who knows if he makes even another 5 starts.

  7. HomerHWBush says:
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    Who do you like for the rest of the season in a IP/QS/ERA/WHIP/K9 league, Joe Ross or Tanner Roark?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @HomerHWBush: Roark by a hair.

  8. Sampson says:
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    Great list as always

    What do you think about giving up Cueto for Villar. My pitching is very deep, and I need SS help bad.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Sampson: If that’s your best option I don’t love it but understand why you would do it.

      Any other SS available?

  9. SMITTY says:
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    Great breakdown Ralph!
    Have you given up completely on Mike Fiers? The last month he has pitched 31.1 inn. with 29 K’s, 1.72 ERA, 1.05 whip and 4 wins. I’ve been streaming and dumping him but his numbers are starting to tell me to hold on.
    Thanks Buddy!

    PS- give me a couple pitchers that you would look to aquire in exchange for Bellinger.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @SMITTY: There’s always one that gets away somehow. Thought he was on the list. He’s somewhere in the 80’s.

  10. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    I know the Cards don’t deserve any respect, but it’s Dexter Fowler.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @VinWins: Brain fart, Dustin is a Yanks prospect. This is what happens when you’re responsible for 5,000 words in 36 hours.

      Thanks!

  11. Crime Dog says:
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    What’s up with Strasberg jumping Darvish after Stras had a bad outing and Darvish had his best of the year so far? worried about that tricep at all?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Crime Dog: Tricep and just general numbers on the year. I’m not looking at one start, I’m looking to see what I overlooked. Stras has been better.

      • Crime Dog says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: good points, thank you. Great write up too

  12. Chucky says:
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    Would you opt for Vargas 1 start v Minny as opposed to two starts Guerra v Mia @ Cin, Wacha v Cin/Wash or other one starts Godley v StL, Hoffman @ SF or Nola @ Seat

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Chucky: Yes Vargas for me. Guerra’s walks will come back to bite him soon.

  13. Oranje says:
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    Start Finnegan for his two starts this week? Or Montgomery for 1 start. Would sit Melancon to gain the innings and Ks… I start Colome and Rodney as well for saves.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Oranje: I’d stay away from Finnegan this week. Scares me.

  14. Prog Nation says:
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    Should I drop Salazar for Jon Gray?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Prog Nation: I would

      • Prog Nation says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks Ralph. Should have given more detail. Here’ my current SP, 1 I use for streaming:

        Taillon
        Carrasco
        Delgado – AZ-Streamer
        Manaea
        Straily
        Salazar DL

        12 team league 2 DL spots, both taken. Who knows when Salazar is getting back.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Prog Nation: Still would add Gray.

  15. Swfcdan says:
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    In reply to your response on your other thread earlier:

    Wow so you prefer Eloy to Rodgers despite the different positional values. Is it because you expect Eloy to hit 35 in his prime and Rodgers only 25? I find it hard to overlook Coors effect, and that Rodgers likely gets up sooner. I might be switching them in a trade why I’m asking.

    As for the shirt, yes of course Im talking about that hillarious photo at the game, what else! I know man you’re in better shape than me going by your video shows, hope you didn’t think I was being serious there haha. It’s just so funny how it came out due to the massive shirt they gave you.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Swfcdan: Yeah it’s so damn close, Eloy just looks like his ceiling is Miggy type all-time bat. Rodgers could 100% be a multi-time all-star. They’re probably 2-3 spots away in my top 100.

      Oh it kills me. I’m a total beeyatch about my weight. Bad genes mean I gotta hustle. It’s all good, I figured you were joking.

  16. bigbear says:
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    Tanaka – stream or stash?

    Does a rock solid Peacock have staying power?

    Is there an average SP any more? Seems like there’s an elite tier and a grab bag for the rest… Some exceptions, but it’s pretty hit/miss from start to start for the rest.
    From 1-14 = elite.
    From 15 – Teheran = Russian roulette.

    • bigbear says:
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      @bigbear: Guess I should add for standard 12 team leagues for Tanaka.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @bigbear: Hahaha I think from Paxton to Cole is very good, then above average from Santana to Walker then average is Poemranz to Leake is average haha.

      Stream, for most formats. He’s a tough own.

      Not sure, he needs to control his pitches and keep his counts low. If he does that then yes.

  17. joeg414 says:
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    Cobb vs Pit
    or
    Nola vs Sea
    5×5 roto, need era and whip

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @joeg414: Nola vs Seattle, the curve was biting last time out. Change looks improved too.

  18. StevenDeGafney says:
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    How is Kenta still at 53 when he’s essentially a long reliever at this point?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @StevenDeGafney: He’s in the rotation, he starts tomorrow. He’s 51st amongst SP on the player rater too. I kinda have to rank Dodgers and hope they start and don’t get DL’d

  19. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    Who do you like better long term — Severino or Berrios?

  20. Christian Herman says:
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    Thoughts on Luis Castillo & his heattt

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Christian Herman: I’ve always viewed him as a safe control type guy, but he was anything but that in his debut. The fastball has serious giddy up, saw he was hitting 99, usually was maxing out at 97 in the MiLB starts I watched the last two years. He should strikeout a lot more batters than he does with that fastball.

  21. PM_me_alexwood_woodies says:
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    About time someone gives Alex Wood his due.

    Now, let’s talk about how he’s better than Kershaw. Move him #3 you ninny-headed eunuch!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @PM_me_alexwood_woodies: Woodies, I mean Jake, I mean Woodies! You got a shout out!

  22. John says:
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    Great write up.

    Any concerns about Darvish ROS? Seems like he’s been prone to more clunkers than you’d hope for from that stud SP1. In addition to the tricep flare up.

    Was looking to offer him up to two pitching hungry teams. Which offer do you like better/is reasonable return?

    G. Sanchez/Manaea or Samardzija/Myers.

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @John: I like both, depends on team need.

      Yeah, I’m a little concerned so I dropped him down, despitebis best start of the year. That said it was pouring on and off in that Yu vs Tanaka matchup. I bet that played a role.

  23. Wacha Wacha says:
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    I was offered shark and Kemp for Pineda and Conforto in 10 team h2h obp. Trading Pineda for shark looks like a win based on your rankings but not sure about the giving up Conforto for kemp part. What would you advise Ralph?

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Wacha Wacha: I’d do it, Kemp’s having a great year quietly.

  24. Steeve says:
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    Faria, SP for the ROS? Projections?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Steeve: Yes, and I would guess a 9 k/9, 3.50 ERA, 3.5 Bb/9

  25. Alan says:
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    Great write up. Just got Pivetta a week ago for the Cardinals start and got lucky and sat him today………Can you group these guys into tiers or rank in order of preference?? Also, are there 3-5 that really stand out above the rest based on upside potential in NL ? Feranando Tatis, Adrian Morejan, Luis Urius, Mitch White, Edwin Rios, Mauricio Dubon, Colton Welker, Luplow, Andrew Stevenson, Trammel, Carter Kiebom, Gatewood

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Alan: No Doubt Top 100 guys Tatis, Urias, Morejon, Trammell, Welker.

      On the line for Top 100 Mitchell White, Rios, Luplow, Dubon, Stevenson, Kieboom, and Gatewood

      • Alan says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks so much!! I forgot the most intriguing one you guys were talking about in the podcast Saturday. Shed Long !!

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Alan: Long after Tatis.

  26. demribbies says:
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    Rolling w/ Manaea @HOU tomorrow?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @demribbies: Only in formats where I have to start everyone. In roto with daily moves, I wouldn’t

  27. demribbies says:
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    Move Adam Jones for Ivan Nova in a QS league? Feels like an overpay on name value alone, but Nova is in a 3 way tie w/ Bundy and Fulmer for 4th w/ 12 QS. (CK, Sale, Scherzer have 13). Dude is steady as they come. Adam Jones is my worst OF behind Blackmon, JoRam, Domingo, ManciniIan Desmond. I guess Desmond is a hair worse than AJ but at least he’s swiping bags and the hot days @Coors are coming.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @demribbies: I’d do it, Nova is great for that format.

  28. Whatever says:
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    Wow, Alex Wood at #4. I like that since I just traded for him couple of weeks ago.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Whatever: When I think about it there’s only three guys I’d start over him.

  29. Joeg414 says:
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    Who’s a better pickup K.Maeda vs LAA, then AZ.
    Or Luis Castillo (Reds) vs Milw, then @ Col. (Ouch)
    6×6 daily roto

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Joeg414: Maeda

  30. BoSoxBB says:
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    Would you trade Dansby Swanson for Alex Wood and Zack Cozart in a 16 team dynasty league? I have Eduardo Nunez stashed on the DL and my Brandon McCarthy (shockingly, I know) just went down.

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @BoSoxBB: Yes, and then I’d send the guy a fruit basket. Run don’t walk to the accept button.

  31. Beastman says:
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    Nice write-up Ralph!

    In a 16-team QS league where nearly every regular SP is owned and depth is key, what do you think of trading Duffy for Mike Montgomery and Snell? A bit of a gamble with Montgomery’s unknown usage and Snell’s awful start to the season, but wondering if it might be a risk worth taking.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Beastman: If it’s a dynasty and you’re playing from down the road it’s not awful. It’s still a gamble though.

  32. Freepeterise says:
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    Nice analysis the breakdowns are great

    What do you think of this trade

    Thames and Sano for

    Trout and melancon?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Freepeterise: Still like the Trout side in dynasty, would go the other side in re-draft.

  33. ice river says:
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    robbie ray or just turner in a redraft? need a hitter

    thx

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @ice river: Answer is in the question, Turner.

  34. David says:
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    Ralph, is it time to drop J. Urias in dynasty? Thanks.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @David: No! Do not drop him in dynasty. You hold as long as you can. If you can’t stash him in the minors and you’re competing you should try and trade him.

  35. Luvdarooks says:
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    Provera or Luis castillo reds –rest of way
    need strikeouts when it’s not so much ERA or whip just no blowups

    • Luvdarooks says:
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      Pivetta

      • Luvdarooks says:
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        Not proverba who spell check thought was a major leaguer
        PS add in perdomo chacin N Martinez and homer Baily to the choices
        Thx!

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Luvdarooks: I’d go Pivetta, he’s the best K guy of that group

  36. Earl says:
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    1) What do you make of Jeff Hoffman going forward?

    2) Do you think Chance Adams has a chance (pun intended) to make it to the bigs in next couple of weeks? I decided to pick him up and stash on bench for the hopeful time.

    3) What is wrong with Carrasco? Seems to pitch great for game or two and then go off into la la land and forget how to pitch (like last night).

    Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Earl: I like Hoffman, and think he’ll have his bad games, Arizona is an awful matchup fro anyone. He’s still a solid mid-tier option with upside.

      Yes, I think so. Always cautious with rookie starters in the AL east.

      He’s got 2016 Kluber disease? It’s 2017 MLB, everyone has blowups. I don’t think anything is wrong.

    • My Seven Rizzos says:
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      @Earl: Good work, Earl. I also picked up Chance Adams, I need him up ASAP!

  37. Sampson says:
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    I drafted Bundy because of your pre-season rankings. He’s been awesome so far, thank you.

    I haven’t heard anything about an innings limit this year, but he only pitched 109 IP last year. Do you anticipate him getting shut down? I can’t have a dead roster spot during playoffs (it’s a dynasty league so don’t wanna drop him then either)

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Sampson: Perhaps in September, not a bad sell IMO.

  38. WalleyWorld says:
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    Curious about your take on some of the pitchers I currently own in a 20 team dynasty. I have Keury Mella, Kodi Medeiros, Junior Fernandez and Garrett Davila. Are any worth hanging onto? Some names I can add include Dustin May, Rogelio Armenteros, Zac Gallen, Joey Lucchesi, Crismatt, Corbin Burnes and most of the ‘others’ you listed in your breakouts column. Thanks for any help, love reading your material, always great stuff.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @WalleyWorld: I’d dump all those guys for May, Lucchesi, Burnes, and Crismatt.

  39. trev says:
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    How do you feel about Pivetta vs. Aaron Nola in a dynasty? Both young guys, probably going to be droppng Gsellman or Lugo.

    10 man h2h

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @trev: I’ll take Nola, he’s the more talented player.

  40. Chris says:
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    Welp Guerra is frustrating. Drop him for rodon 2 starts next week or for morton coming back soon.

    Have sale degrom nova nola peacock sanchez taillon vargas manaea faria

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Chris: That’s tough, I want to see Rodon before I’m saying you have to add him, but he’s less risky than Morton or Guerra.

  41. Brett says:
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    Ralph,

    Would you cut Peacock for Maeda? Do you think Maeda is back in the rotation for good?

Comments are closed.