Comments on: Nerd Speak’a My Language: Fantasy Starters Who Will Increase Or Decrease Strikeouts

By: Jake

Jake — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 19:58:38 +0000

@oh_dad55, Thanks for the props, oh_pops.

By: oh_dad55

oh_dad55 — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 19:28:41 +0000

Good job.

By: BWC

BWC — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 15:28:03 +0000

@Jake, I’ll be going a little beyond my knitting in this post, since I’m not a stats professor but I think the issue is that you could start out with the reverse hypothesis, that 2009′s strikeout rate is highly correlated with “expected strikeouts” (which it would be) and you could make an equally valid claim that expected strikeouts is going to regress to the observed strikeouts. You don’t know which one is going to move unless you run some year to year regressions (or first half of season, second half of season). And every time I run those, the better predictor of future strikeouts is last years strikeouts with expected strikeouts not adding any additional explanatory power. This could be because of a number reasons, but two come to mind, either a) there are other ways to get strikeouts besides the variables the formula uses and those variables will consistently create the same variation between expected strikeout and actual strikeout or b) the underlying variables in expected strikeout are a result of being a strikeout pitcher and those variables will move in line with the norms predicted by the actual strikeout level (not vice versa, as the dray post suggests). To answer the actual question you asked me, instead of blathering on some more, I got the expected strikeout data from the dray board (the link you posted) and then pulled strikeout data from Fangraphs for 2010. Just to take up some more of your time, what I’ve been working on to try and predict strikeouts is to look at a per pitch data and see whether a strikeout pitcher is a) better at getting to 2 strikes or b) better at converting 2 strikes. So far it looks much more like B than A and that A isn’t even indicative of B. Anyways, I could talk about strikeout rates for ever. If you want the pitchfx database I put together, let me know and I’ll try to find a way to get it to you (it’s about 1 gig but has every pitch thrown from ’07 through ’11).

By: Jake

Jake — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 14:50:17 +0000

@BWC, Thanks. I’m sure Grey appreciates that, as I appreciate his graciousness in letting me sit in for a couple sessions.

I imagine it’s possible 2009-2010 was a one-year not-wonder, though only to a limited extent. Even so, what you’ve done is worth further pursuit since I don’t recall reading about anyone else looking into it. The DRaysBay formula was created using 2003-2008 stats so single-year variation shouldn’t be an issue there. I don’t claim to know entirely how the process of running regression analyses works, so I’ll have to take your word(s) for the results.

Even if we can’t predict next year using the math, we can try to predict what should’ve happened within an individual year as accurately possible, then use that to make a better-educated guess for next year. Since this formula is good after 30 IP, another thing we CAN do is use early season stats to see if pitchers are improving or tanking. Then we can choose whether to act on that info. The trouble is having access to the data and picking points at which the data has been updated so it (mostly) jives between sites.

Just out of curiosity, from where did you pull the stats you used?

By: Jake

Jake — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 22:53:46 +0000

@Whiskey Diet, Thanks, I really appreciate it. Understandable on Greinke, he’s probably the one about whom I’m speculatin’ most. My stake’s less about his mentality than his approach. He’s been effective while being less aggressive with the zone. Typically though (if I recall better than a crotchety 49er), F-Strike% tends tends to correlate with BBs. I’m supposing this means less margin for error to induce swings. His “luck stats” should normalize but if he Ks a few less, he’ll allow more BR anyway. Hitters will have had more time to adjust to him as well. I think he’ll end up with a bit better ERA, but similar WHIP and less Ks; all in all, comparable value to last year. Cust kayin’, I’m not banking on a major strike in profit.

By: BWC

BWC — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:00:22 +0000

@Jake, Hey Jake. Oh, the article was great, as with all the razzball articles, it was insightful, well written and funny. I’m amazed a group like grantland/cbs/yahoo/fox haven’t tried to just acquire razzball en masse since you blow most of their fantasy work away. I’ve just been obsessed trying to find a way to predict k-rate changes and this was my first chance to vent my frustrations

By: Whiskey Diet

Whiskey Diet — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 07:31:28 +0000

Awesome stats, Jake. Really, really impressive post. Easy to read and funny, too.

Only complaint – I gotta disagree with you on Greinke. His stuff is good enough like you said, but I really think he’s got his head back on. Super competitive guy and I think he’s just getting comfortable in the NL.

By: Jake

Jake — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 05:11:22 +0000

@cockyphoenix, A full-grown mane, thank you. You’re referring to the Google Doc of the Excel spreadsheet I used? FG indicates stats I pulled from FanGraphs.com and SC are stats from StatCorner.com. The Cl in ClStr% is called strikes.

Good article on Kershaw’s slider. It sure is nasty. He also bumped up its use almost 6% and its velocity 2.4 MPH last year. What if he goes to it even more because it IS so effective vs. righties? CK was 12th among 2011 qualified starters in slider usage. Only Ogando threw both more FB and SL than him. Al Albequerque’s FB/SL combo was effective last year too… It’s not an elbow’s death knell, but surely something to consider if you’re a fan.

By: Jake

Jake — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 04:15:03 +0000

Ah, a more statistically inclined mind than my own. There’s a lot going on in there, and in your comment too, so I’ll do my best to answer. From what I’ve read, those who post similar studies run similar regression anayses with variable variables and end up with variable results. This particular formula seemed to provide the most logical analysis to a layman AND the highest correlation. To me, this = good. Not to mention, which ironically means I am mentioning it, the model does include subsets of SwStr% as two parts of the equation. It sounds like you’re telling me you’ve run similar analyses and found that these correlations aren’t necessarily predictive from year to year. First, that sucks, squared. Second, it seems most similar studies never go so far as to look at year to year results. Finally, I can’t disagree with you. What I think you might be missing though, is all the other things in the blurbs about the particular pitchers I chose to mention, using this and other metrics as foundation for opinions. It’s admittedly not all scientific, and that’s the tongue-in-cheek/pinkie-to-mouth/feather-in-cap-called-macaroni point here anyway. All the analysis in the world doesn’t tell you what to do with it. I feel pretty confident in my opinions having gone through the mental exercise. I’d also like to think the O-word has worked pretty well for me in the past… which, again, is not guarantee of future results. If you don’t agree with my assessments, that’s cool. Hopefully, you at least had a chuckle or two, with me and/or at my expense.

By: cockyphoenix

cockyphoenix — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 04:02:35 +0000

Wow that’s a lot of math. Thanks mane. Seriously great post. But like what do FG, SC and Cl refer to? I haven’t seen those abbreviations yet.

also, regarding Kershaw, that’s not just any slider; it seems to be better than his fastball: http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2011/7/22/clayton-kershaws-platoon-proof-slider.html
how does that flow for you?

By: BWC

BWC — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 00:32:30 +0000

Hi, thanks for the posts. Other times I’ve simply seen swinging strike percentage used to predict K rate. The issue I find when I’ve tried to use analysis like these is that although the regression formula does a good job explaining K% in that same year, it isn’t as predictive of the next year K-Rate as simply using the last years k-rate. I come to that conclusion 2 ways, a) running a regression of 2010 K% based simply on 2009 K% results is a 38% R(sqr) (so 2009 K% explained 38% of the variation in 2010 K%), 2009′s eK% explained only 36% (so despite the high correlation in the same year, it is more likely that the “peripheral” stats regress to the k-rate than vice versa. A second way is to use the differential between 2009 K% and 2009 eK% to predict the change in 2010. Running that regression results in a significant variable (P VALUE about 1%) but the R(sqr) is .037. So 3.7% of the variation explained. So it is telling you something, but it might not move the needle. I didn’t run for 2010 or other years, so perhaps 2009-2010 was just a bad year for this stat. Anyways, let me know if you think I’m missing something.

By: Jake

Jake — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 23:00:31 +0000

@dingbat, Thank you, and you are welcome. I appreciate the feedback and that you got something out of it as well.

By: dingbat

dingbat — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 22:56:35 +0000

Fantastic post, all around. Thanks for doing this analysis and sharing it.

By: Jake

Jake — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 21:03:50 +0000

@Chris, Thank you kindly. It’s sort of “hair nation” around these parts. Past performance is no guarantee of future success… or whatever the financial types say… but having this info in hand sure doesn’t hurt.

By: Chris

Chris — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 20:45:01 +0000

Good post, I enjoyed it. Your mullet is bountiful as well.

This post will probably cause me to invest a bit more heavily in Marcum and Baker. Cheap price tag, solid WHIP, and even more Ks to come. I like it.

By: Jake

Jake — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 20:13:45 +0000

@ryan, I pulled stats from both fangraphs.com and statcorner.com for this. Look here for Latos. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3815&position=P#pitchtype

By: ryan

ryan — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 20:10:06 +0000

Where do you get your pitch usage stats? Was looking for this a couple of weeks ago and couldn’t find it. Like i really need actual stats to tell me that Latos throws a lot of sliders……