In our ongoing 2010 fantasy baseball rookie look, we bring you a name I went over as recently as August in a Neftali Feliz keeper post. Thank you for reading from The Department of Redundancy Department! Because he still falls in the rookie category (under 50 innings pitched), I must, I must increase my Neftali Feliz fuss. Feliz went to the Rangers from the Braves in the trade of Teixeira. (Also included in that trade was Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltymochachino. This was the last major move by Schuerholz. It’s like when your boss at El Pollo Loco tells you in the morning that today is your last day, then you replace the shredded cheese with your pubic hair and rob the cash register, leaving a note that says, “It was the new guy.” Schuerholz left that note for Frank Wren.) Feliz proceeded to cruise through the minors — in 276 innings, he had 325 Ks and a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Then he dominated in the majors — in 31 innings, 39 Ks, 1.74 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. What’s next? The moon! Gravity’s for junk ball throwers! But, first, let’s look at what we can expect from Neftali Feliz in 2010 fantasy baseball.
10-7/4.42/1.35/102 in 128 and a 1/3 innings. Wow, pretty specific on the predictions, huh? Actually, those are David Price’s numbers in 2009. I tell you that line so you keep expectations in check. Neftali Feliz is going to be a great one. I think there’s a good chance that he can throw 130 innings in 2010 (whether the Rangers start him in the rotation or bullpen or bring him up in June is still unknown). He’s capable of a terrific 130 innings. There’s a chance, at least. Chance being the key word. Rookie pitchers, even ones that have nasty stuff, are a risk. Don’t expect a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP over the course of the season. The nice thing is he can strikeout one guy per inning. There will likely be hiccups. There always is. There’s also rumblings that he might get moved to the bullpen to be groomed to be the closer. I doubt it happens, but those are rumblings you should be aware of. To be conservative, I’d say Neftali Feliz’s 2010 is 130 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 120 Ks. Definitely someone that can be a solid number 3 to 4 in fantasy. Upside, I’d say his 2010 looks like Tommy Hanson’s 2009. So if you can get Feliz, you should be happy. (Spanish pun point for Grey.)
Grey- so if you make it out of the first two rounds with no 1B who would you target later? votto? butler?
Ok, in the draft it looks like I will be able to pick any one except for:
Hanley
Pujols
Braun
Kemp
Utley
Miggy
A-Rod
Tex
Howard
Mauer
Prince
Mini Donkey*
Lincecum*
Longoria*
Kinsler*
*Players who haven’t been picked yet, but I’m pretty sure will be gone.
Who do you think I should take? I drafted Mauer in the first round. I’m thinking either JUpton or Tulo. Anyone else you think I should take at that spot? I didn’t make it out of round 1 with a 1B, but there aren’t any that I would take over those two.
Thanks
I think he gets less babied with Nolan Ryan’s no-nonsense approach and because he’s been in the majors before, but his K/BB ratio in AAA was 5:2 (not overwhelming) and his K/BB as a reliever was not approaching an elite 6:1 (4.875: 1). These numbers combined with the ballpark factor lead me to believe that he is closer to a 4-ERA-type guy than a Hanson redux.
@GopherDay: I’d take TULO over J-up. J-Up might have more upside, but he’s an OF’er, and TULO fills that SS hole. TULO is a SS with 30/20 .300 potential.
I’m leaning more and more to taking TULO in my draft next year at #13 overall on the turn. Snag Howard or Fielder, then take TULO.
The point you’re at in your draft i’d say Snagging up TULO would be solid.
the more i keep thinking about it TULO at the turn keeps sounding better and better…. am i jumping the gun grey? Like I’ve said i’m in a 12 teamer, we’re doing contracts for 3 years at the end of this year… If i pass on him in the spring i KNOW he’s not coming back.
@Tony: Votto
@GopherDay: Tulo… This is partially because you took Mauer in the 1st round.
@sean: I hear ya, and you may be right, but I think that’s as much a problem as rookie pitchers in general as Neftali.
@Tony: If you’re doing contracts for three years, I can understand it, but last year was Tulo’s speed peak and his average may come down a bit. You’re looking at closer to a 34/12/.280 guy.
Bill James is a crazy mofo: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9892&position=OF
92/38/95/.274/10
On which planet would you consider this possible?
Grey, Rudy might have gone over this (BRAN post, maybe?), but don’t MI drafted early have a ridiculous rate of underperformance?
This definitely scares me with the amount of power we saw last year from MIs (Tulo, Hill, Zobrist) without tremendous track records (Utley, Kinsler, Phillips).
I know this will end up being oft-covered by you as we hit re-draft season, but wouldn’t it make more sense to look for cheap alternatives to these likely overrated and underproducing MIs?
It just makes me itch when I see someone say he’s going to take Tulo with the 13th pick. His propensity to find slumps and injuries make him a “someone else’s problem” type guy for me…
@IowaCubs: 38 bombs coming off of wrist surgery? Even A-Rod thinks that’s too much juice.
@sean: I wish someone would do some analysis of Bill James versus other projectioneers. Sounds like a job for RUDY!
@IowaCubs: The planet where the Reds make all the right pitching moves.
@sean: At 25, Tulo doesn’t seem like he’s fluky on the power. Fluky elsewhere. Also, I told the guy who took Mauer to take Tulo, because he should be trying to get power where there isn’t usually power to make up for the missing power at the usual power positions. I’m not taking Tulo that early either. Probaly would vie for Wright, Reyes or Rollins, not in that order.
To a certain extent, I don’t believe Zobrist is being trusted cause he should go in the 2nd or 3rd round if last year is to be believed. Hill is being believed to a certain extent, though I probably won’t own him.
@Grey: 34 homers and 12 SB’s from my SS sounds pretty nice…. and in his two full seasons in the majors he’s hit .291 and .297
I think he can hit .290-.300 and if he’s doing most of in the second half .296 in 2007 and .344 in 2009, he’s money for H2H. I guess he doesn’t like the cold aprils and mays in colorado? haha…. he bats like .200 in those early months, if he could just hit .250 he’s EASILY a .300 hitter….
he might almost be a great player to let someone else take, let him slump for his first month or so and then try and BUY LOW? I dont think i can take the risk of that tho, i doubt whoever else is taking TULO that high is going to sell him and have another SS to back him.
@Tony: I agree with what you said. He looks like he just starts late in the Colorado’s cold climate. As long as the slump doesn’t get in his head and carry over too long like in 2008.
@Grey: You’d take ROLLINS at #13 but not TULO?
I couldnt do it. I’ll see what i feel like closer to spring on TULO, but I KNOW rollins wont be my 2nd overall pick at #13.
my main thing is i like having a solid SS and I know Hanley is gone…. so its tulo or?
I hate jeter, rollins, and reyes. OLD, OLD, and RISKY as hell.
@Tony: Rollins had an off year for average and still went 21/31 and he’s only 31. Not over the hill yet.
ya the batting .250 turns me off, i know he’s a career .275 hitter but he is 31, the SB’s dipped last year, and like i mentioned before its a 3 yr contact redraft…. thats gotta weigh in when taking a 31 yr old Rollins or a 25 year old TULO….
gotta like rollins in that line up…. but there’s something i just dont like about the guy…
@sean: you did watch last season? TULO went 32/20 and hit .297 from the SS position.
All i’m saying is SS, besides Hanley is alot of guys I dont particularly like. I’m all about taking the guy with the most value at each spot in the draft. If the right guys fall to me I’ll take them over TULO. Say if LONGO is there or maybe someone else to compliment my ideal #1 of RYAN HOWARD. Right now tho if I’m choosing between a TULO at #13 and J-Upton I’d probably go with TULO. He might go 30-10, but its 30-10 at SS. Upton might go 30-30, but thats at OF…. OF is pretty deep and there’s alot of 20/20 upside OF’ers that are going to be available in the draft late. NOT MANY SS’s.
Is there any relevance to the middle infielders underperforming? I guess that could be true, alot of them have a little more to focus on than the average fielder….
maybe relevenace wasn’t the correct word… is there any validity to that?
I can think of quite a few infielders in the past that have underperformed so i understand what you’re saying. But tulo in the two fully years he’s played has done well…. i’d say as long as he’s healthy he’s a lock for 25-10 and batting .280
which is that second round material? probably not, but you’re hoping another 2009….. i just find it hard to take a grady, or reyes, or one of these risky guys…. could return huge, could be hurt all year….
mauer AL MVP
@Tony: why not just take the best available at #13 instead of forcing yourself to take a ss….then take a sagnof later, like an everth cabrera or alicedes escobar
@IowaCubs: I can believe those #s. Bruce hit a HR every 15-16 ABs, and had an abysmal BABIP last year. Over a full year (around 600 AB), he could easily hit 36-40 HR and bring up his average to a respectable .270. Not sure about the speed, but he did steal 12 between AAA and the majors in 2008.
@matthole:
is Justin Upton/evereth Cabrera going to be better than TULO and say a carlos gonzalez, etc….
I can get an OF much later and get good value out of them than a SS. But i do understand. I wanna take the BEST player there and not just take TULO because he’s a SS, but i think he’s MORE than JUST a SS.
30-20 and a .290 average is pretty solid, SS or OF.
Even if its 30/10, thats not bad…. maybe more mid to late 2nd round, but sometimes you gotta reach a few spots.
@matthole: MAUER MVP = wayyyy overrated in 2010, he’ll probably be hurt half the year.
@royce!: BRUCE is gonna beast it up one of these years… he’s been slow to mature, but if i can get him around the 10th rd again like last year i’d take him….
@matthole: Figured. Who voted Miggy for a 1st place? Must’ve been a Freep reporter.
@Tony: @Grey: tulo or dwright at #13 (if both there?)
@matthole: Wright
@GopherDay: We’re following your every move
@Grey: Hey buddy, just realized I forgot to pay off our bet. Enjoy a couple Daiquiris on me………….and of course, the Yankees!
@Grey: Sorry to repeat myself, but a daquiri is all that’s missing from this picture:
http://www.pricy-spicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/royal-botania-hammock-copy2.jpg
@Steve: Where’s the hot chick? You’re slipping Steve, I’m worried about you.
@BigFatHippo: You’ll have to ask Grey. That’s him in the picture. He only sleeps in hammocks, apparently.
@Steve: That’s how the homeless people live in LaLa land………….not even gonna ask where he keeps his laptop!
Why can’t you throw up Hanson’s numbers instead of Price’s? Let’s get expectations up for once! Nobody ever wants to get expectations up. You want the moon. I’ll give you the moon!
@Grey: Tulo was actually taken before my pick, along with Zimmerman, so I picked Kinsler with mt 17th pick.
Trade my Rajai Davis and Magglio Ordonez for his Edwin Jackson in an AL Only league? Would also clear 3 dollars in cap room for me. My pitching is the pits and I have Julio Borbon and Michael Brantely as Rajai poor men.
@BigFatHippo: I’ll bet you Pujols wins the NL MVP.
@Mark: Ha!
@GopherDay: Nice, not bad at all.
@Charlie: I’d take Jackson there.
@Grey: Won’t take that bet, but it wouldn’t surprise me if I won considering what happened to the Cy………………
@BigFatHippo: Ready to choke out Keith Law, eh?
@BigFatHippo: Checked out the sssllllllooooowwww draft yet? I’m concerned my second pick might retire before my turn comes.
@Steve: “No hurry to get started is there? Let’s at least get into the second half of november” That would be me quoting you just prior to draft start.
@Simply Fred: Touche. But now that we have started…
@Grey: Keith Law can suck my BigFatUnmentionable………….
Listened to an interview with him on local ESPN radio with Randy Karraker, went something like this………….
KL-Javier Vazquez’ numbers were clearly superior to Carpenters
RK- How many times have you voted for the Cy Young?
KL- This is my first
RK- Nuff said…….
We now live in a world where wins, era, whip and baa mean squat! I’m not sure that’s a world I wanna live in, thinking of committing hippocide………………
@BigFatHippo: I’m obviously a little late to this party, but I’m about to listen to that interview right now.
@Grey: Kinsler or Tulo for next year?
@GopherDay: Kinsler
@Grey: Good, don’t puke when it’s over…………
I’m fixing to dive off my balcony into a vat of Jello.
Downside: I die
Upside: There’s naked Jello wrestling.
Wish me luck…………..
@BigFatHippo: Law is no dummy, but he makes the unfortunate mistake of talking like he’s talking to dummies. I think it’s called condescending.
@BigFatHippo: Aren’t you a little new to the ‘hood for that?
@Steve: Gotta make a splash somehow……………why not Jello?
@Grey: So, in what round would Feliz’s line put him in 5X5, 12-teamer? (I’ll elevate RCL about 10 rounds earlier from a regular draft).
@Simply Fred: Around the 17th or so, but we need to know what his role is going to be first.
@Grey: Understand. Was just looking for a starting point. Good enough. Thanks.
BTW: There’s something “very exciting” about six guys making small talk waiting for one guy to get back from a 12-hour trek to the outhouse.
@Simply Fred: Ha!