Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Last week, I talked about how you should believe in your studs. No, not Studs Terkel, but he was the man. No, not Macho Man Randy Savage either. Why did you even bring him up? Though his hip hop album is easily one of the best (or worst) things I’ve ever heard. Where was I? This week I’m looking at a few guys that I believe are either off to a hot start and undervalued or off to a slow start and worth buying low in OPS leagues. After all, the season isn’t even 10% over, so it’s too early to make drastic assumptions about a player’s performance (that’s for next month!).

Seth Smith – So the title of this article is slightly outdated since Smith went to Oakland last year, but that doesn’t matter too much because everybody forgets about him. Dude is currently mashing and is probably on your waiver wire. Go ahead, check – I’ll still be here after you pick him up. He is a reliable .800+ OPS guy and is even better in daily leagues, where you can bench him against lefties like the A‘s do. His playing time should be even more consistent now with Cespedes on the DL.

Jose Altuve – A couple months ago I said, “I’ll let you in on a little secret. Or maybe it’s a big secret. James Brown came to me in a dream last night and took me to the Apollo Theater where I became his band leader. When he played “I Feel Good” he started improvising about how Jose Altuve was going to lead his fantasy baseball team to the promised land. So James and I are in agreement about Altuve being a great stolen base guy in OPS leagues, especially considering the weak position. Yes, we’re on a first name basis now.” What I’m trying to say is that I’m all in on Altuve as a great OPS second baseman and, despite his solid start, you may still be able to buy him relatively cheap. Why? Well, either his owner isn’t buying his hot start or doesn’t really want to own an Astros’ player. These aren’t mutually exclusive.

Pedro Alvarez – He’s getting dropped in a ton of leagues right now, so he’s a good buy low (free?) player. I still believe he’ll approach his numbers from last year.

Brandon Belt – He’s available in a lot of leagues as well and had a slow start to the season. He was also sick (of Bochy) and we have no idea how much that contributed to his poor performance. I would take a chance on him, ABBA. His upside is, has been, and will continue to be very enticing.

Carlos Beltran – Maybe I just like players with “belt” in their names. What does that say about me? Don’t answer that. I feel like it’s common for an ageless wonder like Beltran to take a couple weeks to warm up. He’s still trying to shake off the cryogenic residue from his offseason preservation program. This is an awkward way of saying I think he’s neat. Also, I could see a repeat of last year so I would buy if his current owner is afraid that Father Time has come to reclaim his soul. I hear you’re next, Konerko.

David Ortiz – Sounds like my OPS king will be returning to the lineup soon. I’d try to buy low if you can. I covered him here and here. Basically, as long as he can still swing a bat, I’ll be getting excited about him in OPS leagues and you can too! Sit, Ubu, sit. Good dog.

81 Responses

  1. Roman says:
    (link)

    Pedro Alvarez…barf no thanks

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Roman: That’s a typical response to Pirates players.

  2. Sky

    Sky says:
    (link)

    Pedro and Ike Davis almost mirrored each other last season in terms of starts to the year. Think Ike’s struggles drug on a bit longer but both have reasonable line drive rates right now and low BABIPs for 2013. Anyone looking for 30 HRs from their CI should be diving in on both.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Sky: Good comparison. I still believe in Davis too. Hopefully Coors gives him a boost this week.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: Hopefully the play games in Coors period this week…ugh, should be an offensive extravaganza but it’s been nasty weather.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Sky: Yeah, it’s been bad weather everywhere this season. I feel like at least a handful of games have already been postponed. Stupid Mayans.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks: Are you telling me the Mayans did the scheduling this year? I thought the calendar only went to 2012…

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
              (link)

              @Sky: I think whoever calculated 2012 forgot to carry a one somewhere…

              Or maybe their apocalypse has a standard deviation and the end was supposed to come in 2012 plus or minus a few years?

              • Sky

                Sky says:
                (link)

                You sound like that preacher guy who said to give all your money to the Lord before the rapture and then said ‘my bad, I meant next year!’

                • Tom Jacks

                  Tom Jacks says:
                  (link)

                  @Sky: You sound like the guy who helps said preacher guy cash in on this…

                  Did you hear about this? http://www.aftertherapturepetcare.com/

                  Let’s start something like that for fantasy teams instead of pets. “You wouldn’t be able to RIP, while your dynasty team suffers, would you?”

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
                    (link)

                    Ha, that’s awesome! Thankfully I’m going to hell so Waldo is safe. I did find this a while back:

                    http://www.fantasysportsinsurance.com/

                    Pretty sure it was created by the Law Firm Dewey, Cheatum & Howe.

                    • Tom Jacks

                      Tom Jacks says:
                      (link)

                      @Sky: Good stuff. That’s how Grey can make his next m(b?)illion.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      He’ll have a Bernie Madoff portrait hanging up in his new office with the mahogany desk.

                    • Tom Jacks

                      Tom Jacks says:
                      (link)

                      @Sky: Grey “Pete Rose” Albright?

                    • Tom Jacks

                      Tom Jacks says:
                      (link)

                      @Sky: Indeed, Sir. Indeed.

  3. Will says:
    (link)

    Potential buy (free) candidate?? Rizzo just got dropped in my 10 team standard 5×5 (OBP instead of AVG). Pretty shallow league, only three bench spots which I use to stream in starters (2P, 3SP, 2RP pitching set up where I keep 2 closers in my P spots so I roll 4 at a time).
    C- Perez
    1B – Votto
    2B – Gyorko
    SS – Rollins
    3B – Frazier
    CI – Goldschmidt
    MI – Segura
    OF – J Upton, A Jones, Jennings, Pence, Chris Davis
    UTIL – Panda
    SP- Hamels, Scherzer, Niese, S Miller, J Fernandez, Minor
    RP – Wilhelmsen, Papelbon, Frieri (Madson on the DL), Romo
    Should I make a move for Rizzo? Should I blow my bench spot on him? Should I waste my top waiver priority on it?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Will: YES – grab Rizzo. I’d absolutely use your bench and waiver spot on him. I’m very high on him this year and beyond (to infinity?). Also, Bill James is literally high on him and projected 33 homers.

      • Will says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: Thanks! I took a double-take when I saw he was dropped. I was high (on Rizzo) on draft day but just missed him. I just wasn’t sure what to do now with the way my roster is currently constructed.

      • Will says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: Also, who shall I drop for the impending Rizzo add?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Will: I’m thinking Frieri since Madson is returning soon. Otherwise your weakest starter is probably Fernandez. Those aren’t easy guys to drop but I’d much rather have Rizzo than either.

          • Will says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks: I could dump Frieri till Madson returns (especially since the Angels seem inept at giving him save opportunities) but when Madson returns I’ll have to rosterbate again to find him a spot….

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
              (link)

              @Will: I’d do that for now. Maybe you could then explore a 2 for 1 deal that opens up a spot before Madson returns.

  4. shibboleth says:
    (link)

    Woah Alvarez had 30 home runs last year? How… how did I miss that… That’s gotta be worth a spec grab… Thank you for what you guys do!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @shibboleth: Thanks! His home runs should come around very soon.

  5. STEVE B says:
    (link)

    belt just doesnt have it .he was missing a loop from the beginning

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @STEVE B: If by loop, you mean heart, then I agree.

  6. stumanji says:
    (link)

    FWIW, Ortiz missed a rehab game yesterday with a sore heel. I agree that he’s a good buy low, but just know that he comes with risk, namely that he doesn’t play at all. I “bought low” last year right when he was supposed to come off the DL and he had setback after setback and ended up not even playing a game for me in fantasyland.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @stumanji: Yeah, he certainly does have risk, but the potential is worth taking a gamble on in most cases. I’m crossing my fingers right now and assuming that does something besides make it more difficult to type.

  7. Fister Furbush says:
    (link)

    Weiters
    Encarnacion
    Altuve
    Beltre
    Tulo
    Cargo
    Prado
    Beltran
    Headley

    Aoki
    Melky

    Gio
    Medlen
    Gallardo
    Cueto
    Peavy
    Iwakuma
    Kuroda
    Morrow
    Fernando Rodney

    Thoughts on my team in a points league? Please and thank you

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Fister Furbush: Offense is a nice mix of great power, some speed, and even decent batting average. Pitching should be ok – I don’t trust most of these guys, but the strikeouts should be there. Loving Iwakuma and Aoki as your depth. How many teams are in this league?

      • Fister Furbush says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks:

        It’s a 10 team league on cbssports.com.

        Iwakuma and medlen are both rp eligible, so I use one of them in my two rp spots.

        I’ve been making a lot of trades trying to mold this team into how I want it to look , and I feel like I’m close. I picked Headley off waivers and I really hope he can come back to his normal hitting. ..he is slated to come back tomorrow so I am throwing him in my lineup for next week.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Fister Furbush: Nice pick up on Headley. Good use of the RP slots too.

          If it’s a 10 team league, maybe there are still solid catchers on the waiver wire? If so, maybe you could package Wieters with Prado for a stud outfielder and then grab a decent catcher off the wire? Just a thought.

          • Fister Furbush says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks:

            That’s good advice, I will try and do that.

            Aj p.
            Luccroy
            And Salvador Perez are on the wire

            Who do you like the most there?

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
              (link)

              @Fister Furbush: I’d take Perez first, then Lucroy.

              • Fister Furbush says:
                (link)

                @Tom Jacks:

                Thanks for all your advice Tom, I appreciate it. You’ve given me more input than grey and the others bloggers have combined.

                Until next time! Looking forward to your next blog

                • Tom Jacks

                  Tom Jacks says:
                  (link)

                  @Fister Furbush: No problem – good luck!

  8. Rico says:
    (link)

    Lucroy got dropped and I have Jesus Montero. Have to pick up Lucroy right? Jesus is not getting the starts he needs and he’s in the doghouse with the manager. Jesus projects well due to the DH starts, but he’s not getting them yet.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Rico: Yeah I’d make that switch.

  9. Ron says:
    (link)

    I have fallen into the trap of too many bats and not enough arms in this young season. Would I be giving too much if I offered C. Davis and L. Cain for Latos?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Ron: No, that’s not too much. Go for it.

  10. AJL says:
    (link)

    In a 20 team league, I have K. Morales, E. Encarnacion, and B. Belt. Need to shed one for a LF. Best bet to get rid of Kendrys? Any help is appreciated!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @AJL: Yeah, that’s your best bet and you’re definitely not getting rid of Encarnacion. I slightly prefer Belt to Morales, but I wouldn’t want to cut either. I’d imagine you could trade either for something in a 20 team league…

  11. Hawk says:
    (link)

    Holy Jesus. Is it time to drop Jesus Montero? Salty, AJ, Doumit and Avila are on wire. Drop for any of them? Thanks!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Hawk: Yeah, I would for Doumit.

  12. Ron says:
    (link)

    Thanks for answering my other question. I’m entertaining another deal. Is now the best time to trade C. Davis FOR Stanton?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Ron: No problem. If you could get the other owner to agree to that deal, you win the gold star. It’s certainly worth a shot.

  13. Chris says:
    (link)

    Thoughts on barry zito? Hold/drop?
    Thank you

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Chris: You can drop him in mixed leagues. He’s more of a matchups play in my mind. He wasn’t going to keep it up and I bet he will have another couple nights like tonight in the future.

      • Chris says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: Thank you

  14. Ramblings says:
    (link)

    Rosario
    Davis
    Bonifacio
    Cabrera, Miggy
    Rutledge
    Jones
    McCutchen
    Rios
    Choo

    Segura
    Gardner
    Aoki
    Suzuki

    Moore
    Bailey
    Zimmerman
    Milone
    Holland
    Perkins
    Maholm

    Cahill
    Cishek
    Greinke (DL)

    10 Team Yahoo! 5×5 H2H

    I have great depth at OF. Wouldn’t mind another 1B. I do think Davis will turn the corner here before too long. My weakest position is RP. Need help with possible pickups or good trade options. Any other comments on team would be great too.

    Belt is available on wires, but his numbers are similar to Davis’ at this point of the season. Smith is available too, perhaps a better option than Suzuki (Hey, Suzuki was free at the time, but isn’t that the automobiles slogan too?)

    RP on Waivers is a tough one, Casilla, Ortiz, O’Day, Smyly are the “top” 4 avail. Villaneuva also avail.

    I know that it is still early so I don’t want to give up on players too early.. but I know Perkins won’t have too many save opportunities and Royals and Detroit look like they are going with closer by committee approach.

    Well those are my thoughts, help guide my ramblings…

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Ramblings: I wouldn’t give up on Davis and I like your offense overall. The one thing I’d want is to upgrade from Bonifacio. Maybe you could package him and Aoki for a better 2B? If you’re able to do this, then I’d look at picking up Belt or Smith off the wire to replace Aoki on your bench.

      I’d give Suzuki til the end of the month before dropping him. If it’s a daily league, you could bench him against lefties, especially when he’s away from Yankees Stadium. He really benefited from playing there last year.

      I’d prefer to stick with Perkins unless either he loses the job or a better, full-time closer is on waivers. Even closers on bad teams tend to reach at least 30+ saves because their teams are probably more likely to win close games instead of blowing out the other team.

  15. Jason says:
    (link)

    Would you move Jose Fernandez and starlin marte for heyward?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Jason: Yes, absolutely. I love Heyward.

  16. Mike says:
    (link)

    dynasty league trade, which side wins? Round value next to each player. Pedroia(2),Chris Davis(10),Brett Anderson(23) for Kipnis(9),Middlebrooks(27),Tillman(24).

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Mike: The Pedroia side is better for this year and the Middlebrooks side should be better for future years. I’d rather have the Middlebrooks side in a dynasty league.

  17. troy says:
    (link)

    is beltre victorino and niese for cabrera and masterson a fair deal?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @troy: Yes, it seems close and I would trade that package to land Miggy.

      • Troy says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: would you trade miggy to get that back? 5 of league 8 by 8 I actually improve in 6 of the 8 hitting cats based off projection wise and replace fiers with niese

      • Troy says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: sorry the new offer was melky victorino niese and beltre for miggy and pence better or worse? 5 of league as well so 5 good starters r hard to come by

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Troy: This deal might be slightly worse than the previous one, but it sounds like you should do it because you need to replace Fiers and have holes in your outfield. If that’s the case, I’d do it. Beltre should be fine this year too.

          • Troy says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks: if you don’t mind ill break my team down to u right now have wieters hosmer gyorko miggy Rutledge Dunn/carter aybar Bruce pence de aza Gordon and either parmelee or bonifacio at my 5th of with morneau at util could also put Dunn or carter there whoever I don’t have at ci. League also has ci and mi spot. Bench is taveras Saunders ( on dl) pitchers are stras Cobb dempster masterson Harvey cing rani fiers ogando and Shelby miller with chapman kimbrel and Perkins at closer. Does this change ur opinion at all? Sorry I’m really torn on this deal lol

            • Troy says:
              (link)

              @Troy: and 12 team league with 28 roster spots 13 starters on offense 9 pitchers and 6 bench spots. Once again Ty

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
              (link)

              @Troy: Yeah, that changes it for me. You’re not in as bad shape as it sounded. I wouldn’t do it unless you don’t have to give up Pence. I’d hold out for Miggy for Beltre, Victorino, and Niese.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Troy: I’ll add that I wouldn’t do this in a 10 team league, but it sounds like your league is deeper than that.

  18. Dominic says:
    (link)

    I’m pretty set on speed with 7 guys on my squad with at least 2 steals, do you think a trade like B.J. Upton for David Ortiz would be a good idea for my UTIL spot (goldy at 1st, jones, j. up and trout, aoki at OF)?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Dominic: I’d rather have B.J. Upton than Ortiz. Maybe you could trade Aoki (since he’s been on fire) and pitching for Ortiz?

  19. Bill says:
    (link)

    Why is Chris Young OF (not SP) being overlooked? He is playing every day in on a good Oakland team and has put up 8R, 8RBI, 4SB and as many HR’s as the Miami Marlins (Ok that last part is not saying much). Last year’s “Potential Breakout Player of the Year Who Went Bust and Ruined My Fantasy Team” is owned in less than 10% of leagues and is producing in 3 categories. With a .188 BA and .687 OPS I see upside. Am I whacked?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Bill: Yeah, there’s upside, but probably not a ton. Maybe a .230 BA and .750 OPS for a best case scenario? Although, like you said, he should get you some counting stats.

  20. I like smith. Reminds me of Kubel a few years ago when I grabbed him off waivers, and he put up great numbers in a platoon situation (great for a 4th OF). Then, he got a starting gig and was overpaid for in every year since.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @gbaked: That’s a good comparison.

  21. Fister Furbush says:
    (link)

    What are your thoughts on Wade Davis after shutting down the Braves today? Im thinking about starting him as a two start next week VS Cle and @Det over Jake Peavys one start vs Cle

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Fister Furbush: To be blunt, he scares me. I’m afraid that he’ll have a start like Zito’s last one, especially against Detroit. I’d only consider him in AL-only leagues.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      To back up Tom’s point, Eddings was behind the plate. Did some research on him and he averaged 15.8 K/9 called in 2011. He was letting pitches that were both off the plate and high on the right side get called strikes. He had an advantageous umping matchup, which I didn’t know was possible. I’d abstain.

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
        (link)

        @Sky: Wow, that’s an insane K rate. Great research.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Really didn’t do much, honestly; he was calling the game so bad I had to look him up and stumbled upon a deadspin article from April or May of last year that gave those stats. He was consistently bad…that’s about the only thing I could say good about him but there were plenty of pitches high and tight on righties that were striking them out that never should’ve.

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
            (link)

            @Sky: Crazy. Maybe he gets paid the same amount regardless of how many hours he puts in per game, so he just figures to hurry it up?

            • Fister Furbush says:
              (link)

              @Tom Jacks:

              Great Advice guys. i have another question!

              In a points league, would you accept a trade where you’d get Giancarlo Stanton for Matin Prado straight up? Prado will have eligability at 2nd 3rd and OF in my league. I already have Altuve and Beltre/Headley, so i dont really need those eligabilites from him.

              Stanton is returning tomorrow for Miami from his shoulder injury…His power would make for a great number 2 OF for me behind Cargo.

              Is his health too questionable, and is being on the Marlins hitting in that theme park too much of a con to trade for him?

              Thanks ,
              FF

              • Tom Jacks

                Tom Jacks says:
                (link)

                @Fister Furbush: I’d accept that trade ASAP! Seems like a steal to me.

                • Fister Furbush says:
                  (link)

                  @Tom Jacks

                  I had to throw Morrow and Wade Davis in. He needed pitching. Hopefully this doesn’t get vetoed because of how one sided it kind of looks.

                  His outfielders are stacked though with J Upton Hamilton and Adam Jones with Tori Hunter. No pitching at all either. Fister is his best.

                  Now lets hope Stanton can keep up his slugging percentage!

Comments are closed.