Comments on: MLB Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings Now Posted

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 19:47:24 +0000

@Peoria: Point Shares have Botto and Morneau about even. There's a wildcard with Morneau b/c he's playing in a new park this year. Morneau at #50 is a much better value than Votto at #36. But I wouldn't bet on Morneau lasting that much after Votto....

By: Peoria

Peoria — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 02:03:50 +0000

If you had the choice between Votto and Morneau, who would you rather have? In my ESPN mock draft Votto went 36th and Morneau went 50th. I really like Votto and want him on my team, but would it be wise to hold off on Morneau if I can? Getting him 50th overall seems like a ton of value. Thanks!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:40:24 +0000

@Jeff Jaffee: Thanks Jeff. A few options. You could copy/paste to Excel or you could right click in the spreadsheet and choose 'Open in New Tab'. This should expand the frame and make it easy enough to print. Let me know if you have any issues!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 14:40:40 +0000

@Ernie: Hey Ernie. I just use the playing time estimates from BP. Last year, I made a few adjustments based on injury prone players (Josh Hamilton comes to mind). They have Harden at 168 IP. The last two years he's pitched 148 and 141 innings. So I think you've got a point there. If you knock his IP back to 140 IP he tumbles about 80 spots in value. Translation: If there's any pitcher that you don't feel confident will give you at least 160 IP, don't draft them until the 15th round or so. That includes Jean-Luc Bedard.

By: Jeff Jaffee

Jeff Jaffee — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 07:38:29 +0000

Love your point of view. Great sense of humor plus superior knowledge of the game, but how do you print out this point share list? Thanks. Jeff Jaffee

By: Ernie

Ernie — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 06:56:04 +0000

Rudy, explain something to me. On your 12-team Point Shares, I’ve noticed that Harden is estimated to give 1.18 points AND is ahead of SPs as: Nolasco, J.Johnson, and Wandy to name a few. For one, I can’t remember the last time having Harden on my team has added anything except for frustration. The guy is the 2010 version of Glass Joe. Just so I understand, are the point shares taking into account that a player will stay healthy all year because I thought it took projected innings into account?

By: Goat Slywinkle

Goat Slywinkle — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:12:29 +0000

Apologies, I meant he has the second highest point share for strikeouts. If that is fixed he’s presumably much lower than 93rd.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 23:42:10 +0000

@Goat Slywinkle: 2nd highest? He's down at #93 overall....still inflated due too his hybrid SP/RP stats but not as crazy as #2 overall....

By: Goat Slywinkle

Goat Slywinkle — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 23:23:41 +0000

Kris Medlen has the second highest point share among pitchers in a ten-team league.

This seems like a mistake.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 23:15:03 +0000

I don’t like speed-only guys to begin with but I like them even less in SBs. You can’t really count on SBs on a week-to-week basis. They come in bunches. I’d punt it for H2H and maybe keep a guy on the bench you can swap in if need be (and maybe trade to a sucker)…

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

@IowaCubs: I'd say values don't change, but how players are used can change. In roto, I'd try to avoid a guy like Bourn, but when all you need is one guy to get you three steals to beat your opponent then values for particular players change for your team.

By: Steve

Steve — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 22:52:53 +0000

@IowaCubs: :-O

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 21:31:32 +0000

Hey Rudy/Grey… How do the values change for a H2H league that uses standard categories?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 21:14:05 +0000

@Scott: The Point Shares have a tough time with a guy like Kris Medlen who’s a hybrid of SP and RP. That said, he’s one of my favorite late round fliers. He’s next in line for starts in Atlanta but will relieve until then. Check out his stats from last year. 72Ks in 67 IP. A 3.35 FIP. Has some control issues but otherwise looks really good. But not as good as he looks in Point Shares

@matthole: thanks!

@DonSlaught’sOnslaught: nice spinal tap callback.

By: DonSlaught'sOnslaught

DonSlaught'sOnslaught — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 20:55:25 +0000

It’s like, how much great could this be. And the answer is none. None more great.

By: matthole

matthole — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 20:21:46 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Thanks for the responses and for the good work

By: Scott

Scott — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 20:10:54 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Thanks for all the hard work, Rudy. Medlen's ranking seems crazy to me. Are saves really not that important? Is this an argument for punting saves?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 20:04:31 +0000

@CocoPoolies: Beckham’s value would go up from $7 to $10 if he qualified for 2B – above Ian Stewart and below Dan Uggla.

I really like Beckham and that flexibility in deep leagues can come in handy. But he’s still a hitter who likely won’t 1) > .300, 2) > 20 HRs, 3) 90+ RBIs or Runs, and 4) > 15 SBs.

So I wouldn’t draft him much higher than the 90th pick in a 10-12 team MLB league…

By: CocoPoolies

CocoPoolies — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 19:50:07 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Rudy, what is your take on Beckham and where does he fit in your 2b rankings?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 19:26:48 +0000

@peter: I'd say around the 120th pick would be the earliest. We got Escobar in the 200s in a recent draft which was sweet. If you're in need of speed, you've got to move up to draft them....much better than relying on a speed-only OF...

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 19:23:44 +0000

@CK: I tested the Point Shares in a test run by Tom Tango at Insidethebook and in various drafts. Not really conclusive either way but generally promising.

Here are the 2009 projected point shares:
http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings/razzball-2009-projected-point-shares-12-team/

And the 2009 end of year point shares:
http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings-final/2009-fantasy-baseball-player-rater-end-of-year-point-shares/

In the end of year, i provide the ADP so you can see whom it was bullish vs. bearish. Wright at #1 definitely hurts but Metco just wasn’t accounted for in the projections…

By: peter

peter — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:51:49 +0000

@Stephen: This whole time I’ve been planning on grabbing Everth or Alcides late in the draft; let others reach for the likes of Andrus and Alexei. Now I’m trying to figure out how long I can wait on them…

What’s the earliest you’d pick Everth/Alcides? I’m not too worried about it in 12 team leagues, but I do need some speed from SS. I’d feel better if I had more confidence in Aybar’s speed (a third option).

By: CK

CK — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:47:40 +0000

Last ? from me Rudy… andy btw, thanks for being available and answering some many of these from us…

How did these projections fair last year, when they were compared to the actual results from 2009. I assuming somebody must have checked into this.

By: peter

peter — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:29:54 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Great stuff today, Rudy - both the post and in the comments. Many thanks.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:28:18 +0000

@Asdrubal Bastardo: No, he's fine there.

By: tyler

tyler — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:22:51 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: beautiful, thanks so much for all your work.

By: Asdrubal Bastardo

Asdrubal Bastardo — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:21:03 +0000

@Grey: I just got Reynolds at pick 54 in a draft. Is he still a schmohawk at that spot? I feel that I am getting good value for him there, your thoughts?

By: Stephen

Stephen — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:05:05 +0000

@ThePoonTycoon: Super true. Brad Evans was just hyping up Everth Cabrera yesterday too. Guess I should have pushed for an early draft but my league would have none of that. They want to wait three weeks into spring training to get a feel for younger players and see if any injuries happen.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:04:49 +0000

@tyler: awesome question. yes, you definitely want to stay flexible during a draft and adjust to the strategies of those around you. given the value of SPs, i’d be willing to go above ADP for many but not too far. I prefer to counterpunch in a draft and/or lead the runs of a certain position vs. be caught at the tail end (like how we ended up with Berkman at 1B though we had less control on the draft since it was 20 team).

So if there’s a SP run, it might mean there’s better bargains for hitters.

All that said, if you have a special feeling about a guy, you can reach. The differences in Point Shares are pretty volatile based on playing time and the projections. Just consider the Point Shares to be a second opinion that you’re referencing when putting together the draft sheet and making your picks…

By: tyler

tyler — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:00:17 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: I'm with you on SPs being typically undervalued. I'm also with you on waiting til slightly before ADP before picking them in most drafts. That said, there is the rare draft where SPs go significantly higher than their ADPs and more in line with their "true" values. I take it that if you recognize such a trend by, say, the 5th/6th rd, you would start ignoring ADP and drafting closer to the projected value?