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Razzball Point Shares are now up for the following 5×5 league formats:

MLB 10-team league

MLB 12-team league

MLB 14-team league

MLB 16-team league

Point Shares are our proprietary methodology for ranking players.  See here for a primer.  If you’re in a rush or don’t care to read a methodology post, these rankings estimate a player’s impact on a team’s points vs. the average drafted player at that position.  Ever wonder what the value is of , say, Carl Crawford’s SBs?  Our estimate in a 12-team league is 3.3 points – so if you have a team with average speed and Crawford, you’ll fall close to 10 points (average is 6.5 + 3.3).  How bad does Jacoby Ellsbury’s HR/RBI hurt you vs. an average OF?   He costs you 1.6 points in HR and another 1.5 points in RBI (that’s why he comes in at #102 vs. the very high pick in other rankings).

I don’t recommend that you use this as a de facto draft rankings.  You have to factor in how the other teams in your league will value players.  No reason to draft a player a few rounds before anyone else will.

You’ll find that Point Shares value pitchers more than any set of drafters ever would.  Before you go all crazy and draft 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds, remember that these estimates are based on adding  a player to the average team.  Once you add a stud pitcher like Lincecum, your pitching staff is way above average.  Any additional pitcher will have less incremental value.  Unlike Spinal Tap’s amplifiers, you can’t go past 10 in a category if you’re in a 10 team league no matter how much you dominate.

In the next week or so, we’ll be posting 8-team, 10-team, and 12-team AL-only and NL-only.

Comment below if you have any questions…

From Around The Web

  1. Peoria says:
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    There’s a minor error in the 16-team one, where the dollar value is under the “HR,” which puts the other numbers under the wrong column as well. Just thought I’d give ya a heads up. Otherwise, everything looks good. Nice work!

  2. AdamK says:
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    But this one goes to eleven!

  3. polczek5 says:
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    Rudy

    Awesome stuff, as always. The statistical analysis I read on this site puts that of other sites – *cough* ESPN *cough* – to shame.

    How confident are you in the playing time estimates going into these projections. Do you think they need tweaking beyond new injuries or specific position battles?

  4. sean says:
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    Rudy, how is it that value over average player drops to 0 in a ten-team league at the 81st player? That’s not even a third of the way through rostered players.

  5. Django says:
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    Where’s Teix?

  6. @polczek5: Ha. Thanks. Every once in a while I find a decent article or analysis on ESPN but they continue to disappoint me given the huge dataset they have at their disposal. We’ve got 20 commenter leagues going this year which I’m hoping will be enough of a sample to test some hypotheses.

    I feel pretty confident in the playing time estimates. But if you have a gut feeling that a player will have significantly more time than publicly expected, I’d adjust your draft board accordingly.

    @sean: It’s not an even distribution. The top players are above 0 more than the bottom players are under 0. Plus, I only weigh on position by 75% and overall hitters by 25% to avoid inflating the impact of, say, Catchers. Only two catchers in 10 team (Mauer and McCann) are above 0 whereas 10 1Bs are above 0.

  7. Giacomo says:
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    Rudy, what types of adjustments would one need to make if the starting positions in my leagues differ from those that you have assumed for Pointshares? More specifically, if the leagues that I am in have only 3 OF, no CI or MI, 4 SP and 2 RP instead of 9 P, wouldn’t this cause you to dramatically increase the value of the top players at all positions? I am very interested in your thoughts.

  8. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: what are some of these hypotheses?

  9. AdamH says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Are these the $ values you would use in an auction draft?

  10. Tony says:
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    @grey or rudy or anyone: Heyward has had a good start to spring ball, yes i know two games? LOL but chipper is endorsing him to be on the big league team from day 1…. if heyward is on fire through all of spring ball is there anyway they keep him in the minors?

    What do you think is the percentage is of him making the team? 50%? 72% 96%????

    I dont think i’ll be on the hype train in my league since we ONLY keep two players, but what round would you take this guy if we KNOW he’s gonna make the team in a 12 team league….?

  11. polczek5 says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Actually, I agree with you. Every so often there is a decent analysis on ESPN. Tristan Cockcroft usually posts decent stuff. AJ Mass, on the other hand, makes me cringe. A few weeks back he did an analysis where he dropped the three worst starts for each pitcher in 2009. Guess what…they’re overall numbers were better. You gotta at least balance that shiz and drop the best three starts.

    Can’t wait for your new-and-improved risky pitchers post.

  12. polczek5 says:
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    @Tony: Regarding Heyward, I heard Jason Grey the other day saying that he thinks he starts the year in the majors. He cites talks with Braves front office indicating that (1) they feel they could have made the playoffs last year with Hanson from the start and don’t want to make the same mistake and (2) they gotta go big on Bobby Cox’s last year. Obviously you just have weight that with other things you hear, but I’m not sure anyone *knows* whether he’ll be up or not.

  13. polczek5 says:
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    @AdamH: I asked the same question for Grey a few posts back and he said this is what he’d use, but knowing that it overvalues pitchers (as Rudy points out in the post).

  14. aj says:
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    Rudy: In the 16-team one, the HR column is populated with the $$ value.

  15. Dingo says:
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    Are these still based on CHONE projections? If so, that’s another thing to keep in mind when using these rankings to guide your draft. Using the Ellsbury example, CHONE projects 84 runs and 48 SBs, both of which are lower than the totals he posted in 2009 (94/70) and 2008 (98/50). In your previous Point Shares post, you said that you’d be adding ZiPS projections to reweight the values, but it doesn’t look like ZiPS is available yet.

  16. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Holy Crap! Why are Chone projections so conservative?

  17. Mikey boy324 says:
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    How come the rankings come out so differently then greys?

  18. TBat says:
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    Pitcher keeper advice sought!

    League settings: 10 teams head-to-head, stats: W, L, K, HR allowed, SV, ERA, QS

    Options (Keep 1): Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, Jonathan Broxton

  19. @Giacomo: There would be slight differences based on the depth at each position. For instances, 1B is very top-heavy (sometimes literally) but really thins out in deep leagues (especially with some 1Bs potentially poached at OF like Dunn and Robot Jones). I’d use a Point Shares for a smaller league then you’re in. If you’re in a 12 team league, the 10 team Point Shares would be better. We used the 16 team Point Shares – with some slight alterations – for the 20 team draft we just did.

    @AdamH: These estimate what we think will be the player’s value. Per polczek5’s post (and Grey’s initial feedback), you don’t need to spend these amount for SPs and you’ll likely have to go higher to get hitters. I recommend trying to get the best bargains on both.

    @Tony: I like Heyward’s chances to start the season with the team. The fact it’s Bobby’s last year definitely plays a factor. But I think he’s a 4th/5th OF in 12-team leagues. He’s got great upside but can’t really expected more than .280/18 HRs.

    @polczek5: Yeah, Tristan had a nice post recently on how 2H performance isn’t any better of a predictor for next year success than the whole past year. AJ Mass stuff hasn’t impressed me but at least he’s trying some analysis…

  20. Atherton32 says:
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    I am new to the point shares so i just have a question. I am in a 14 team, head to head, 12×12, mixed league. So, does that make the average player 7.5? And if that is correct what is the number I should shoot for in each category? I know you only have it listed for a 5×5 and I am by no means asking for more but in those 5 categories what is a good number I want my team to look like? Thanks for your help.

  21. @aj: AJ…is this AJ Mass! speak of the devil :) Thanks for the catch. It’s fixed now.

    @Dingo: These projections are CHONE + ZiPS. It is true that CHONE and ZiPS projections tend to be a bit lower than Fan estimates or someone like ESPN or CBSSports for counting stats like HR. But they have been proven to be the best at a player by player level. Ellsbury’s lower value actually has nothing to do with CHONE/ZiPS. The biggest driver is that Baseball Prospectus is saying Ellsbury will be pressed for playing time with 525 PAs and 485 ABs. That’s 140 less ABs than last year. While this does appear conservative, Ellsbury has more competition to be replaced from time to time at LF than CF. If you think Ellsbury can get to 600 ABs, boost Ellsbury by about 60 spots….

    @Mikey boy324: Grey’s are based on his estimates and reflect his draft board. These represent expected value and don’t factor in everything that makes sense for a draft board – e.g., people don’t value SP as much so you can push them down. You may need to reach a bit for some offensive players.

    It’s also true that Grey and I see things a bit differently – partially b/c I do the Point Shares and am more statistically focused.

  22. matthole says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: youre taking wright over arod and Haren over greinke if given the options?

  23. @Atherton32: That’s correct that 7.5 points is the average for a 14 team league. I would think you’d need 90+ points to win a 14 team league meaning you should aim for an avearge of 9 points per category. But you don’t have to have perfect balance – if you can get to 90 points by dominating some stats, that’s okay. You can always trade later in the league.

  24. @matthole: I’ll be honest – the differences between those players in Point Shares isn’t statistically different to any high level of confidence. So, based on the projections, Wright > A-Rod and Haren > Greinke. Do I draft that way? Nah, I probably go the opposite way. Of the 4, Haren is probably the best value…

  25. Denys says:
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    Here’s the dilemma I always run into, like Nelly son… Anyway:

    Theoretically, let’s say I’m drafting in the 10th slot (12 team for all intensive purposes) and am lucky enough to have big Teix drop to me there. We come back around, 15th pick for those keeping track) and Miggy Cabrera, FOR WHATEVER DUMBASS reasons, is still available.

    Do I take another 1B?? Or do I fill another position slot… Later in the drafts this is not a problem. But seeing how UTIL is another position that counts: Would you, in that position, take the BEST player available, or look to fit other needs in the lineup?

  26. Ernie says:
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    Rudy, can the Point Shares be exported to excel?

  27. @Denys: I have a post in draft form that answers this very question. Basically, I’d say never double up in the top 2 slots unless it’s at a ridiculous discount. Miggy at #15 is generally a discount but I have him at #27 overall so it’s not enough for me. If you have to double up, I’d rather it be at OF.

  28. @Ernie: No, but you can cut/paste pretty easily into Excel.

  29. matthole says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Do you use these #s to compare them to ADP to determine which players are over/undervalued?

    IE: It appears that Teix is the lowest rank of the Big 4 1Bs and only a few spots ahead of Morneau. Would you advise to pass up on Teix if you can land morneau later on?

    Also, conversely is Billingsley considered a steal if hes ranked 38 but is being drafted 9-11RD in mocks…..and i suppose the same for hamels as a steal for a legit SP1 in rd 7/8…..

    Like you said, these #s shouldnt suggest taking billingsley in the top 40, but could suggest hes a steal if taken where currently projected, right?

  30. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Denys: I play only in 10 teamers so this probably isn’t a big help to you, but I’ve mocked Teix and Miggy in the 1st/2nd, then still can get Youk in the 3rd/4th. 3rd base is my biggest concern this year, I want a good one because there are so few. With those 2 guys in round 1/2, you’ve established a fantastic base in HR’s, R’s, RBI’s, and BA.

    What I really like doing is taking David Wright and R Howard 1/2. Wright offsets Howard’s weaker BA, and you end up with solid output in all 5 offensive categories. This strategy may even be possible in a 12 team because for some odd reason, I’ve seen Howard dropping. Guys are taking Mauer, Lincecum, Tulo, and Longoria a lot at the 1st/2nd turn.

    Just my 2 cents.

  31. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Rudy, would you still not make a move like that in a 10 team draft? I’ve ended up with pretty solid teams in mocks taking Teix and Miggy at the bottom of the snake draft. 10 teamers offer more flexibillity for this. Besides, when Kemp and Braun are gone, I’m not paying that much for Holliday or Crawford at picks 10/11.

  32. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: “Before you go all crazy and draft 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds, remember that these estimates are based on adding a player to the average team. Once you add a stud pitcher like Lincecum, your pitching staff is way above average. Any additional pitcher will have less incremental value.”

    I presume that this would go for any player’s stats. If you draft Carl Crawford, for instance, your steals would be way above average, and any additional player you add who has high projected steals has less incremental value.

    Also, it is interesting to see how Grey’s picks compare. He is right on with Reyes, Aardsma, close with Ian Stewart, and a number of others, all quite different then Yahoo or ESPN ratings. Others, such as Granderson and Morneau, he is light years different. And although he always expresses disdain for Suzuki and doubts about Zobrist, I am amazed that Ichiro is 126 and Zobrist 166 (all in the 12 team league.)

    Thanks for a very interesting assessment.

  33. @matthole: You’re thinking is exactly right. We will compare these to ADPs soon to understand under/over- priced players. Yes on Teix vs. Morneau although almost all 1Bs go at a premium b/c they put up big HR/RBI (vs. Runs/AVG which are more undervalued). C-Bills might be at #38 but he’s still pretty far down in overall pitchers. No reason to take him higher than his ADP which is definitely higher than 40.

    @Frank Rizzo: With the current crop of OFs, it’s hard to see a scenario to take OFs in rounds 1 and 2. Braun is the only guy I can see taking in the 1st round (I probably go with a big 1B over Kemp) and I’m sure there’s a solid non-OF still available in the 2nd round.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Agreed that it impacts all stats. Once you get a guy like Crawford, you can’t ignore SBs but you really just need average SB performance after that (which is about 10 SBs per offensive player in a 10-12 team league).

    Granderson – I do like him better than his Point Shares estimate – mainly for R/HR/RBI upside with the move to Yankee Stadium – but probably less than Grey. I don’t like his AVG (estimated -0.5 vs average OF). He can’t be counted on for more than about average SBs for OFs (~13 SBs). I’m even a little bearish on RBI upside if he hits, say, 6th in the Yankee lineup given his low AVG. So I probably won’t end up w/ him in any leagues…

    Morneau – All 1Bs come at a premium and the farther down the list you go, the higher the premium. That said, I was clamoring for Morneau at #38 in the 2nd round of a 20-team draft. It comes down to position scarcity at that point. That’s why I prefer to get a 1B in the first 2 rounds to minimize the premium payment. Best bargain last year among top 1Bs imo was Fielder – I think he’ll be a relative good bargain this year as well.

    Ichiro – You can move him up 80 slots if you think he’ll hit .350 and steal 40 bases. CHONE/ZiPS don’t. I don’t. If he hits .319 and steals 24 SBs (as projected), then, yeah, he’s #126. I GUARANTEE that Grey will not have Ichiro on any teams this year – regardless where he ranks him.

    Zobrist – He’s hurt by two things. 1) His average is more of a liability than last year’s performance indicates. His BABIP of .326 was a little high and his expected .265 is not good for 2B where the AVG comes in higher than other positions and 2) 2B is suprisingly deep. That said, I’d put Zobrist higher than #166 on my draft board and ahead of some of the low upside guys ranked higher on Point Shares like Polanco and Jose Lopez. Plus he’d be higher than injury prone Rickie Weeks. But I’m taking the following over him: Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano, Roberts, Uggla, Ian Stewart (I’ll take Zobrist over Aaron Hill b/c of Zobrist’s SBs).

  34. Jeff W. says:
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    I always ask too much, but I have to ask:

    I’m in a 7×6 roto-scoring league where we include OBP, SLG, and HLD.

    I’m curious how these point shares — or your rankings of players — would change if these categories — or even just OPS — was included.

    Any tips or thoughts on doing an additional point share calculation?

    If not, that’s okay, this is still very interesting.

    -Jeff

  35. CK says:
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    Troy Tulowitzki…

    #32 in 10-Team and #46 in 12-Team.

    Rudy,

    Where do you draft Tulo in a 12 team league?

  36. Dingo says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Got it — so you do have ZiPS included after all. That explains something weird that I had noticed — the difference between Teix and Miggy in terms of HRs, RBIs, and SBs didn’t seem to be explained by any of the projection systems currently up at fangraphs.com (CHONE, Marcel, & Bill James). ZiPS must really like Miggy more than Teix.

  37. Wait, what ADP has Billingsley higher than #40? Mockdraftcentral has him at #124, which would be a steal if he’s expected to get close to #40ish overall value.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @TBat: Bunch of coin flips there. I’d go with Kershaw.

  39. charlie batch says:
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    Do you love berkman this year? If so, how much? No one else seems to

  40. @Jeff W.: Adding OBP and SLG will have an impact – someone like Dunn boosts in value where a guy like Bourn goes down even more. Holds don’t change anything except up Middle Relievers BUT the fact that SPs now contribute to 4 of 6 categories where offensive players could contribute to 7 would reduce SP and RP values across the board.

    I’ll be doing Point Shares for AL and NL only – 8/10/12 team. But nothing this year at least for alternate stats. Something we’ll survey this year to determine what extra stats have the most value.

    @CK: He’s the 21st hitter in MLB and I like him better than Beltran (don’t buy the playing time and that he’ll get any SBs this year) and Bay (Metco) so figured #19 in 10-team. I’d say about the same in a 12-team league. (I realize this seems like it goes against Point Shares but the fact is that pitchers can just be drafted at pitcher values. If I was in a points league, I very well might stock up on pitchers. But in the 5×5 format, you can’t win with pitching alone so you just try to maximize the pitcher bargains and minimize the hitter premiums.

    @Dingo: Here’s my projections:

    M Teix – 529 / 89 / 30 / 106 / 1 / .284
    Miggy – 561 / 86 / 32 / 107 / 3 / .310

    I like the over on just about all M-Teix’s stats. Less so on Miggy. Enough to counterbalance Miggy’s estimated 1 standings point improvement on AVG. I’d say these two are a coinflip….

    ZiPs says 95/29/112 for Teix and 91/34/110 on Miggy.

    CHONE says 92/34/112 on Teix and 89/33/114 on Miggy. Playing adjustments from BP would account of anything beyond a straight line average of the two….

  41. Rabbit says:
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    Rudy, you mention Jose Lopez as “low upside”, along with Crappolanco–but given J-Lo’s age (26), don’t you think he has pretty good growth potential in HRs (and RBIs) this year? Or is he a Latin 26? Yeah, he doesn’t give you SBs, but isn’t a 75-30-100-280 line at least attainable for him as upside, and wouldn’t that put him in a league with Cano (with the only difference being avg)?

  42. Eddy says:
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    I’m a bit shocked to see guys like McClouth before Kinsler and Hanson before Cliff Lee.

    Wouldn’t Kinsler be projected higher because he is above average compared to the standard 2B?

    Same with C.Lee?

  43. @Mark Geoffriau: Billingsley would seem to be a steal – what I was saying before is that a lot of pitchers will be ‘steals’ vs their expected value. Vazquez comes to mind. It’s just all relative – might as well wait until pick 100 or more before taking c-bills -why pick him early? (plus, i’m not a big c-bills fan….call me when the guy can manage a 1.20 WHIP vs. 1.30)

    @charlie batch: Nope. We’re kind of ill about taking him #38 in a recent 20 team draft. I’d put him right after Morneau in the 1B list and would try to get one of the better guys in the first 2 rounds to avoid paying the premium for someone like him. I probably would just wait a round or two and try to get Dunn at a decent price.

  44. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    uh oh, one of the cbs guys (eric mack) is now touting ian stewart as this years mark reynolds.

    dammit.

  45. @Rabbit: Fair point but i don’t think he’s the type that projects well. His OBP last year was .303 so his plate discipline is bad. Not a lot of speed. Moderate power in a pitcher’s stadium. I just see him maybe having a standout year but more likely to be just okay. Guys he reminds me of are Jorge Cantu and Carlos Baerga. I think he could be good value in the lower rounds though….

    @Eddy: Both are good observations. Point Shares just spit out what the projections say. The 2B and OF positions aren’t that different in average value for a 10 team league – OF loses a lot of steam as you factor in 4th/5th OFs. If you look at each category, though, you’ll see that McLouth’s superiority is completely dependent on runs. Not sure why they are so rosy on McLouth vs. Kinsler but I recommend Kinsler over McLouth any day of the week. (That said, it should make you take a second look at McLouth come draft day…..)

    Hanson over Lee is another surprise. I’m taking C-Lee because he’s a safer bet but here are the projections:

    Hanson – 13 / 3.51 / 1.24 / 188 in 182 IP
    C-Lee – 13 / 3.45 / 1.19 / 148 in 197 IP

    Hence the PS comparison b/w the two shows that Hanson boost ahead b/c his 40 K difference is worht more than Lee’s slightly better ratios and IP (the more an above average pitcher pitches, the better for your team)

    Again, I’m taking C-Lee but it makes you re-evaluate Hanson. Seems like he’s a solid #2 SP – just one where you’d want a more experienced #1 pitcher to balance the youth risk.

  46. Stephen says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: They are still only three months late.

  47. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Stephen: 3 months late, but still early enough to notify your less vigilant league members in time for the draft, and really, that’s all that matters

  48. tyler says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: I’m with you on SPs being typically undervalued. I’m also with you on waiting til slightly before ADP before picking them in most drafts.

    That said, there is the rare draft where SPs go significantly higher than their ADPs and more in line with their “true” values. I take it that if you recognize such a trend by, say, the 5th/6th rd, you would start ignoring ADP and drafting closer to the projected value?

  49. @tyler: awesome question. yes, you definitely want to stay flexible during a draft and adjust to the strategies of those around you. given the value of SPs, i’d be willing to go above ADP for many but not too far. I prefer to counterpunch in a draft and/or lead the runs of a certain position vs. be caught at the tail end (like how we ended up with Berkman at 1B though we had less control on the draft since it was 20 team).

    So if there’s a SP run, it might mean there’s better bargains for hitters.

    All that said, if you have a special feeling about a guy, you can reach. The differences in Point Shares are pretty volatile based on playing time and the projections. Just consider the Point Shares to be a second opinion that you’re referencing when putting together the draft sheet and making your picks…

  50. Stephen says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Super true. Brad Evans was just hyping up Everth Cabrera yesterday too. Guess I should have pushed for an early draft but my league would have none of that. They want to wait three weeks into spring training to get a feel for younger players and see if any injuries happen.

  51. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    @Grey: I just got Reynolds at pick 54 in a draft. Is he still a schmohawk at that spot? I feel that I am getting good value for him there, your thoughts?

  52. tyler says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: beautiful, thanks so much for all your work.

  53. peter says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Great stuff today, Rudy – both the post and in the comments. Many thanks.

  54. CK says:
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    Last ? from me Rudy… andy btw, thanks for being available and answering some many of these from us…

    How did these projections fair last year, when they were compared to the actual results from 2009. I assuming somebody must have checked into this.

  55. peter says:
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    @Stephen: This whole time I’ve been planning on grabbing Everth or Alcides late in the draft; let others reach for the likes of Andrus and Alexei. Now I’m trying to figure out how long I can wait on them…

    What’s the earliest you’d pick Everth/Alcides? I’m not too worried about it in 12 team leagues, but I do need some speed from SS. I’d feel better if I had more confidence in Aybar’s speed (a third option).

  56. @CK: I tested the Point Shares in a test run by Tom Tango at Insidethebook and in various drafts. Not really conclusive either way but generally promising.

    Here are the 2009 projected point shares:
    http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings/razzball-2009-projected-point-shares-12-team/

    And the 2009 end of year point shares:
    http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings-final/2009-fantasy-baseball-player-rater-end-of-year-point-shares/

    In the end of year, i provide the ADP so you can see whom it was bullish vs. bearish. Wright at #1 definitely hurts but Metco just wasn’t accounted for in the projections…

  57. @peter: I’d say around the 120th pick would be the earliest. We got Escobar in the 200s in a recent draft which was sweet. If you’re in need of speed, you’ve got to move up to draft them….much better than relying on a speed-only OF…

  58. CocoPoolies says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Rudy, what is your take on Beckham and where does he fit in your 2b rankings?

  59. @CocoPoolies: Beckham’s value would go up from $7 to $10 if he qualified for 2B – above Ian Stewart and below Dan Uggla.

    I really like Beckham and that flexibility in deep leagues can come in handy. But he’s still a hitter who likely won’t 1) > .300, 2) > 20 HRs, 3) 90+ RBIs or Runs, and 4) > 15 SBs.

    So I wouldn’t draft him much higher than the 90th pick in a 10-12 team MLB league…

  60. Scott says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Thanks for all the hard work, Rudy. Medlen’s ranking seems crazy to me. Are saves really not that important? Is this an argument for punting saves?

  61. matthole says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Thanks for the responses and for the good work

  62. DonSlaught'sOnslaught says:
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    It’s like, how much great could this be. And the answer is none. None more great.

  63. @Scott: The Point Shares have a tough time with a guy like Kris Medlen who’s a hybrid of SP and RP. That said, he’s one of my favorite late round fliers. He’s next in line for starts in Atlanta but will relieve until then. Check out his stats from last year. 72Ks in 67 IP. A 3.35 FIP. Has some control issues but otherwise looks really good. But not as good as he looks in Point Shares :)

    @matthole: thanks!

    @DonSlaught’sOnslaught: nice spinal tap callback.

  64. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Hey Rudy/Grey… How do the values change for a H2H league that uses standard categories?

  65. Steve says:
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    @IowaCubs: :-O

  66. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @IowaCubs: I’d say values don’t change, but how players are used can change. In roto, I’d try to avoid a guy like Bourn, but when all you need is one guy to get you three steals to beat your opponent then values for particular players change for your team.

  67. I don’t like speed-only guys to begin with but I like them even less in SBs. You can’t really count on SBs on a week-to-week basis. They come in bunches. I’d punt it for H2H and maybe keep a guy on the bench you can swap in if need be (and maybe trade to a sucker)…

  68. Goat Slywinkle says:
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    Kris Medlen has the second highest point share among pitchers in a ten-team league.

    This seems like a mistake.

  69. @Goat Slywinkle: 2nd highest? He’s down at #93 overall….still inflated due too his hybrid SP/RP stats but not as crazy as #2 overall….

  70. Goat Slywinkle says:
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    Apologies, I meant he has the second highest point share for strikeouts. If that is fixed he’s presumably much lower than 93rd.

  71. Ernie says:
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    Rudy, explain something to me. On your 12-team Point Shares, I’ve noticed that Harden is estimated to give 1.18 points AND is ahead of SPs as: Nolasco, J.Johnson, and Wandy to name a few. For one, I can’t remember the last time having Harden on my team has added anything except for frustration. The guy is the 2010 version of Glass Joe. Just so I understand, are the point shares taking into account that a player will stay healthy all year because I thought it took projected innings into account?

  72. Jeff Jaffee says:
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    Love your point of view. Great sense of humor plus superior knowledge of the game, but how do you print out this point share list? Thanks. Jeff Jaffee

  73. @Ernie: Hey Ernie. I just use the playing time estimates from BP. Last year, I made a few adjustments based on injury prone players (Josh Hamilton comes to mind). They have Harden at 168 IP. The last two years he’s pitched 148 and 141 innings. So I think you’ve got a point there. If you knock his IP back to 140 IP he tumbles about 80 spots in value.

    Translation: If there’s any pitcher that you don’t feel confident will give you at least 160 IP, don’t draft them until the 15th round or so. That includes Jean-Luc Bedard.

  74. @Jeff Jaffee: Thanks Jeff. A few options. You could copy/paste to Excel or you could right click in the spreadsheet and choose ‘Open in New Tab’. This should expand the frame and make it easy enough to print. Let me know if you have any issues!

  75. Peoria says:
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    If you had the choice between Votto and Morneau, who would you rather have? In my ESPN mock draft Votto went 36th and Morneau went 50th. I really like Votto and want him on my team, but would it be wise to hold off on Morneau if I can? Getting him 50th overall seems like a ton of value. Thanks!

  76. @Peoria: Point Shares have Botto and Morneau about even. There’s a wildcard with Morneau b/c he’s playing in a new park this year. Morneau at #50 is a much better value than Votto at #36. But I wouldn’t bet on Morneau lasting that much after Votto….

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