Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

As of May 13th, Eric Hosmer has started his early MLB career slashing .280/.387/.600 in 25 at-bats with 2 home runs, 5 RBI and a 7:5 K:BB ratio. Granted, it’s a small sample size but his start reminds me of two recent rookies who were similarly hyped: Jay Bruce and Ryan Braun. Bruce was called up and went 15 for 29 with 3 home runs, 7 RBI with a 2:7 K:BB ratio from late May to the first two days of June. Bruce’s June slash-line: .223/.274/.340 in 103 ABs. By year end, he finished with a .254/.314/.453 slash line for the year. Braun started 6 for 27 with 1 home run, 4 RBI with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. Braun went on to hit .382/.435/.716 in 102 at-bats during June and finished with a .324/.370/.634 in 451 at-bats (2007). I wouldn’t be surprised to have him perform at a level between the beginnings of Braun and Bruce rookie years. But, and there’s always a but, keep expectations tempered and be prepared for pitchers start finding his weaknesses. Other notable prospects to watch for:

Mike Minor/Julio Teheran | ATL | SP (AAA): With Brandon Beachy straining his oblique in his Friday start, it’s speculated that Minor or Teheran fill-in while Beachy is on the DL. Either pitcher should be picked up.

Domonic Brown | PHI | RF (AAA): Sprained UCL in right thumb – same hand with broken Hamate bone. He will miss 5 to 7 days.

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B (AAA): With 10 home runs and a slash of .377/.447/.708 in 131 at-bats. He has been slowly regressing towards the mean while staying hot. Grey made recommendation to pick up in NL-Only leagues for the time being, until he’s called up. Concur, with the addition of deep leagues. As June nears, I would start eying the possibility of picking him up.

Desmond Jennings | TB | CF (AAA): Has hit two home runs in last two games and is proving he belongs in the majors. His K:BB ratio is 28:21 in 130 at-bats. The strikeouts are uncharacteristically high for Jennings. The power potential scouts have been hoping for is starting to show with 5 home runs, not to mention eight steals in as many attempts. Expect a June call-up. He’s deserving.

Bryce Harper | WAS | RF (A): He should be promoted to High-A soon as he has 19 XBH (8 Hr) with 6 steals and a .390/.467/.686 slash line in 118 at-bats. He’s been everything everyone had expected.

Brett Jackson | CHC | CF (AA): Was placed on DL with strained ligament in left pinky caused by sliding into second base on 5/11/11. Time frame is currently unknown.

Fernando Martinez | NYM | CF (AAA): Called up for Friday’s game to fill Angel Pagan’s roster spot and hit a pinch-hit home run. Collins plans to use him as a bench player. You’d think that a solid prospect hitting .292/.361/.477 would at least get a chance to plan more than occasionally. Expect to see him sent back down when Pagan returns from the DL.

Andy Dirks | DET | OF (AAA): With Magglio Ordonez going on the DL, he received the call up after .328/.375/.527 with six home runs. A good contact hitter with gap power (12 to 15 home run ceiling). Struggles versus left-handed pitchers. Upside for career is fourth-outfielder. For more information see Detroit Tigers 2010 Minor League Review.

Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B (AAA): Has hit 4 home runs in last 10 games as his average is regressing to the mean. Still a strong play for third when called up. Think Pedro Alvarez. (Rudy to Grey: So does that mean Lawrie will f*** our 2012 teams like Alvarez has f***ed our 2011 teams? If so, now we just need to not draft him and “the next Morneau” and we’re set!)

Trayvon Robinson | LAD | OF (AAA): Not sold on him contributing this year with 38 strikeouts in 122 at-bats with only average power and 4 SBs (Rudy: He has 7 HRs in PCL but that league is like Coors Field pre-humidor. Wily Mo Pena has 13 HRs so far this year!). Defensively has good range but a fringe-average arm. If Robinson starts to make more contact, could be a Rajai Davis or Willy Taveras type player. Don’t expect until September as his game needs more refinement.

Jesus Montero | NYY | C/DH (AAA): The smooth hitting Montero has been lacing base-hits all over the field this year hitting .325/.350/.421 in 121 at-bats. His 2 home runs, 5 doubles and 25:5 K:BB ratio are disappointing. At only 21 years old, the power should develop but at this point he’s a poor man’s Joe Mauer. With Jorge Posada showing his age (Rudy: and grumpy old manness on Saturday), Montero could provide a jolt of youth and minor pop in the near future.

Brandon Allen | ARI | 1B (AAA): Has warmed up after starting slowly. Has 2 home runs, 2 triples and 2 doubles, 10 RBI and hitting .355/.475/.742 in last 31 at-bats (10 games). Overall, hitting .313/.413/.531 in 128 at-bats with 5 home runs but with 34 strikeouts. The average wont stay this high, the strikeouts are expected, and the power is starting to come around. (Rudy: That said, the Diamondbacks still prefer Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, Xavier Nady, and Gerardo Parra. Grrr!)

From Around The Web

  1. Jose ortiz says:
    (link)

    I am grateful you write bits and pieces on minor leaguers. It’s hard to find last minutes call ups but, you always keep it current.
    Thanks again,
    Jose

  2. Virinder says:
    (link)

    I have both Minor and Teheran, with Beachy on DL…what should I expect if either should be called up?? Similar production as Beachy?? That would be awesome!

  3. Virinder says:
    (link)

    About Hosmer, he never showed great power potential in the minors, did he?? I always thought he had great plate discipline and would be good for OBP, yet could he have the same power as Bruce or Braun??

  4. IgnatiusJReilly says:
    (link)

    The Braves have passed over Minor again w/ Beachy’s injury….is there something to be concerned about,or is it just a matter of not wanting to call him up until they know he will be there for good?

    Im in a 10 team h2h 8×8 keeper league and Minor is just sitting there on waivers.to pick him up I would have to drop a somewhat decent player,so thats why I’ve been dragging my feet.so anyway,are you confident that Minor will be called up by the allstar break and if so do y’think he will contribute this season

  5. neosapiens says:
    (link)

    I need help at SP…do you think a package of Daniel Hudson and Eric Hosmer and I get back Josh Johnson is worth it? So hesitant about throwing Hosmer in, although I just picked him off waivers for nothing.

  6. Flunkie says:
    (link)

    What’re your latest thoughts on Chisenhall and Moustakas? And what’s the value of Rizzo, going forward? Would you say it’s in the ballpark of Trumbo-like value, more/less?

  7. Adam says:
    (link)

    Great article, as always. Curious what your thoughts are on a couple lesser known prospects who are off to good starts: Blake Tekotte and Kyle Parker.
    I’ve been following Tekotte for a while and he finally got some respect when he made the Baseball America Weekly Hot Sheet a few weeks ago, but they called him a future “reserve outfielder”. I don’t get it. He seems like a 20-20 hitter in the making.
    Kyle Parker is a guy I drafted in my dynasty NL-only league. He started off hot, hitting .381 with 18 rbi in April, but has cooled off since. He’s still far away from the majors, but I was curious if you know anything about him and what you think his future could look like.
    Thanks. Keep up the good work.

  8. henW says:
    (link)

    =H2H 14×24=
    =R H HR RBI SB AVG K OPS= W L SV K HLD ERA WHIP K/BB =

    C)Suzuki 1)Prince 2)Uggla 3)Reynolds ss)Hanley IF)Teixeira
    LF)Rajai CF)Justin RF)Car-gon OF)Stanton UT)Ortiz & Hosmer

    SP : Kershaw+Garza+Chacin+Danks+Kennedy

    is it worthy with Prince+Rajai+Chacin for Halladay+B.J up+Morneau ?
    thanks a lot!!

  9. Dirt says:
    (link)

    Latos just got dropped in my league I’ll have to drop 2 players to get Cueto off the DL

    Question is.. who do i drop??

    Colby Lewis
    Kuroda
    Hudson
    Buchholz
    Britton
    Brett Anderson
    Fuentes
    Putz
    Scherzer
    Lilly

    potential batters to drop…

    Carlos Pena

    Is it worth it to drop two of these guys to get Latos??? Which 2 should i drop??????

  10. pubscout says:
    (link)

    is jennings or montero a better use of a roster spot?

  11. Stephen

    Stephen says:
    (link)

    @Jose Ortiz: Thank you.

    @Virinder: re:Minor/Teheran: Similar production as Beachy would be my expectations. re: Hosmer: Has 25 to 30 home run ceiling.

    @IgnatiusJReilly: I’m not sure why the Braves don’t call up Minor. Maybe they want a right-hander? Teheran is the better prospect. Minor is worth a stash if you can drop a poor player. Otherwise, with the way the Braves are calling the shots, I would wait until more solidified information on his call-up happens to pick him up.

    @neosapians: It’s a fair trade. I want the Josh Johnson side.

    @Flunkie: For this year, I like Chisenhall over Moustakas. Rizzo could be Mark Trumbo with better average.

    @Adam: re:Tekotte: He’s old for his level, projects as a fourth outfielder (struggles against lefties), good defense, some power and great speed. Upside may be Roger Bernadina. re:Kyle Parker (COL): He’ll have to keep the strikeouts in check, but he could be a 30 to 35 home run player at LF with a fringe batting average.

    @hen W: I’d take the Fielder side.

    @Dirt: Bucholz, Pena/Lilly

    @pubscout: Montero at this point with the Posada debacle occurring.

  12. Charlie Says says:
    (link)

    @Dirt: Personally, would drop Buchholz for Cueto. Either Lewis or Britton for Latos. Before Latos came off the DL, he didn’t make any rehab appearances, only some simulated games. If he doesn’t get it going after his next couple starts, then I’ll worry.

  13. Stephen

    Stephen says:
    (link)

    @CharlieSays:@Dirt: Concur.

  14. ltf says:
    (link)

    Not really understanding the need to compare Hosmer to Bruce or Braun. The Royals brought him up early to try and make a run at the division this year. The only thing that is going to hold him back is if he isn’t able to hit for enough power.

    “But, and there’s always a but, keep expectations tempered and be prepared for pitchers start finding his weaknesses.”

    His weaknesses? That entire beginning paragraph is incredibly vague. I’ve met Hosmer before, and he is a very intelligent and impressive guy. He went 3rd overall as a HS 1st baseman. the only thing holding him back is being able to hit for enough power as a MLB 1B at his age. I’d love to hear what his weaknesses are in his approach to the plate.

    Brad Meyers has started the season at AA-AAA with a 51:1 K:BB ratio. He’s a couple years older than me and I know him from ball growing up. so it’s nice to hear him talk about him ripping it up so far this year.

  15. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
    (link)

    @Rudy Gamble:

    Nice! You may see some strange yet sometimes entertaining comments from Wang Chung then!

  16. Dirt says:
    (link)

    Guys thanks for the advice.

    Do I use my #1 waiver to pick up Latos??

    Who do I drop first Carlos Pena or Ted Lilly

  17. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Stephen:

    WIth Javier Vazquez sucking big time (6 ER in the 1st already), is there any chance we see Jay Buentes? He’s 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA and 44 Ks in 41 IP.

    Though the Marlins are not the type to promote prospects on a whim (especially because they’re not going to relegate Vazquez to the bullpen and pay him his $7 mil there), let’s say he does get called up. How do his numbers translate into the majors?

  18. I added D Jennings about a week ago since Fuld has been terrible. Thinking about adding Montero, but not sure I have the room;

    we only get 20 moves (ive used 9 already)
    I have Napoli at C right now (but Alvarez/Peralta at IF/UT)
    I also have Snider and Teheran, so 3 of 5 Bench spots as Minors

    a lot of reasons not to add him, but I would only be dropping either Snider, Volquez or E Sanchez. Thoughts?

  19. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Eddy:

    Second question:

    Do we see Jesus Montero get called up in June? Moustakas?

  20. also curious why you’d take Chisenhall over Moustakas for this year. I might have said that at beginning of the year, but at least for fantasy doesn’t look like Chisenhall will offer too much.

  21. sorry one more question. I haven’t seen Lawrie or T Frazier hyped as much as Hosmer, Moose, Montero, Jennings, etc. but they are both playing great (power!) and should be close. Any thoughts on them?

  22. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
    (link)

    @BleacherGM:

    If no one minds, I’m going to take a stab at this one: plate discipline. Moustakas doesn’t have it yet and Lonnie does have a better batting eye. Once pitchers catch onto Moustakas’ weaknesses, you’re going to see some long standing valleys of minimal production from him. Lonnie may not be as exciting, but when you consider how little has come from 3B this year, a .275 average with a 20HR bat looks mighty enticing.

  23. Stephen

    Stephen says:
    (link)

    @ltf: re: Hosmer: Like you said, power ceiling could be higher if focused on pulling more pitches. He’s compared to Joey Votto and swing is compared to Will Clark. In his career he has struggled hitting left-handed pitching. Running speed is below average and wont steal bases as often in the majors. Defensively he is good but has heavy feet. So his weaknesses to be worried about is being exploited by left-handed pitchers. His off-season eye surgery supposedly has helped. That is the most major concern. His approach is solid and his swing is awesome. However, he could be another Billy Butler too. Moderate pop and a good swing (but with better defense).

    re: Brad Meyers (WAS): from Baseball America (2011) and John Sickels Handbook (2011): Struggled with injuries in the past (left foot – stress fracture in 2010 that caused reoccurring problems). He’s a groundball pitcher with four polished pitches. Throws a 88 to 90 mph fastball that tops at 92 mph. Creates deceptive arm angles from lanky body. Has excellent command of all pitches. Throws an average change-up and average slider. His curveball is a “show-me” pitch. Back end of the rotation starter (number 4 or 5 SP).

    His great success in the minors is due to his ability to control pitches and deceive hitters. I would think he’d be a valuable arm. Like a Joe Saunders/Jon Garland type pitcher. Thank you for bring him up. I appreciate the help. I also appreciate your discerning comments and discourse about prospect information. Keeps me sharp and reminds me to provide more details and more opinions.

    @Dirt: If you believe Latos is fully healed, sure. Lilly.

    @Eddy: re: Jay Buentes: I almost wrote about him. I think he’d be a solid options. He’s been in the minors for quite some time. However, remember his career control (3.6 BB/9) is over a full walk more than this year (2.2 BB/9). I think he’s more a back end rotation man.

    @Eddy: Yes and yes.

    @Bleacher GM: Fantasy wise they both offer similar skills at the same position. They both have the ability to be boom or bust. I still rank Moustakas over Chisenhall. Moustakas is just struggling/stumbling so far this year at Triple-A. That’s the majority of the reason for the Chisenhall pick.

    re:second question: See article for Lawrie. As for Todd Frazier, I don’t see the Reds giving him much opportunity this year.

  24. Stephen

    Stephen says:
    (link)

    @Oregon Nut Caps: That’s part of if. However, Moustakas has been more patient this year. Chisenhall has a longer history with his plate discipline and looks to be more of a consistent player without the higher ceiling. Boring wins championships too. Moustakas will be more prone to droughts of production due to his hitting approach.

  25. drew says:
    (link)

    Jake Arrieta or travis wood?

  26. Stephen

    Stephen says:
    (link)

    @drew: Arrieta

  27. JRT says:
    (link)

    Now that Tomlin will start twice next week, would you start him over Gallardo in a weekly h2h?

  28. mets fan says:
    (link)

    Lowrie or Hardy?

  29. mets fan says:
    (link)

    also reynolds or helton?

  30. brian recca says:
    (link)

    arrieta over wood? Thats pretty tough. Wood has had some bad luck his year but has been doing well lately.

  31. Rollie Lingers says:
    (link)

    @stephen, do i start lind or corey hart next week? thanks!

  32. Dude says:
    (link)

    Stephen, You like Rizzo over Belt for the rest of the season? And do you have an ETA on Belt? thanks a lot for the good writeup.

  33. ltf says:
    (link)

    @Stephen: lmao all three of Hosmer’s Home Runs in AAA this year have been off LHP. I’ve seen him live fighting off some nasty cutters and hitting them into the right-center gap. He doesn’t need to pull anything, it’s just difficult for young hitters to keep their bat on a smooth plane through the strike zone while adding some lift at the end.

    I think people have odd expectations for young 1B like Freeman, Hosmer, and Belt and expect them to hit from day one, or read all the public scouting reports with comps and whatever else sells. I’m not calling any of them the next Jim Thome, but before he had all of his success he was sent down a few times as well.

  34. Something Really Swell says:
    (link)

    Drop Raburn for a high AVG anything? Team is dead last in AVG rolling with Uggla. Thanks!

  35. TillmanLover says:
    (link)

    @Stephen Great article as usual. But quick question, when do you think Trout will be called up? He’s racking in the minors and Wells looks like he might be hurt for awhile. Thank you.

  36. Stephen

    Stephen says:
    (link)

    @mets fan: Lowrie, Helton

    @ltf: mhm. It would just be a travesty to see him trend towards Joe Mauer rather than a Justin Morneau.

    re:expectations: A lot of that is the win-now mentality, and on this site, the fantasy production. I mean, that’s what we need. As for a baseball fan, I hate the hype machine. Truly hate it. I look at Alex Gordon finally having success after three years of toiling away. Personally, I really enjoy seeing the prospects rebound from their initial struggles. Even Moustakas and Hosmer returning from a bum 2009 season last year was exciting.

    @Something Really Swell: Sure.

    @TillmanLover: Thank you. re:Trout: June at the earliest, but I would be surprised to see the Angels rush a non-pitching prospect.

  37. AM2 says:
    (link)

    Bryce Harper is ridiculous!!!

    18 years old and has a 1.150 OPS, hitting .373 vs. LHP, .387 vs. RHP, on pace for about 36 HRs, 44 2B in 140 games with 72 walks.

    It seems like everyone keeps waiting for competition to catch up with him, whether it’s at the JC level as a 16 year old or at A-ball as an 18 year old. He seems like a legit perennial Triple Crown candidate in the MLB …. just imagine him when he’s 26-27 years old!

  38. TillmanLover says:
    (link)

    One more question, Which top Royals pitcher (Duffy, Montgomery, Odorizzi, Lamb) do you think will be called up first? and who will the Royals send down? Thank you so much! Appreciate all the hard work!

  39. Stephen

    Stephen says:
    (link)

    @AM2: ‘Tis true. There are many comparisons to Alex Rodriguez at his young age too. Could be a legitimate possibility.

    @TillmanLover: Duffy and Montgomery will be up come June. I don’t know who they send down.

  40. ltf says:
    (link)

    @Stephen: Hosmer was hurt, so I guess it was a bounce back. I think any team would be happy with Mauer or Morneau?

    The hype machine is all of the minor league prospecting and scouting BA and other types sell to the general public. When you quote verbatim from BA and other sources that is part of it. They might say publically how great Brett Lawrie is, but everyone knows he is getting by on his athleticism and is going to hit the wall hard.

    Gordon will still probably get to 40+ HR power in a season, but it’s a lot more profitable for these places to hype the prospects and sell scouting reports saying how great they are.

    People want to call Harper the next Alex Rodriguez, as if he is on a one way track to the hall of fame, but JD Drew tore up the minor leagues as well. lmao which comp do you think people will pay to read?

  41. thorbs says:
    (link)

    Hey Stephen…love the prospects updates, read em regularly.

    What are your thoughts on Tim Wheeler? How does his upside stack up versus other OF prospects like Trayvon Robinson or Leonys Martin?

Comments are closed.