Here’s what I said in August of last year about Mike Olt, “Don’t you love when New Yorkers say the expression, “I got your _____ right here!” Coming out of the right taxi driver’s mouth, it’s like a cello being played by Yo-Yo Ma. Sometimes it can get confusing when you are actually trying to tell someone you’ve located something. Like, “I got your cellphone right here!” Probably sounds like you’re being an a-hole. Well, in that vein, take a a scruffy taxi driver’s voice, throw it through two packs a cigarettes a day for 20 years and give me a little, ‘I got your loyalty to Michael Young right here!’” And that’s me quoting me! So, I overestimated the Rangers’ ability to say lates to Michael Young, then Olt came down with a case of plantar fasciitis, which autocorrect wanted to change to plantar fascist, because, I guess, that ailment dictates when someone can and cannot run. My autocorrect is wry. You wry, yo! That’s what gangster’s in Cambridge, Mass say. Now, will Olt sit on the bench vs. righties again? Well, let’s look at the Contending Club Playbook. Section 1.7b of said playbook says, “Prospects will be brought up to sit on the bench because stopping the growth of a prospect is paramount for any contending club. Right after, getting to the playoffs and losing in the first round. Any good club worth its salt can pull this off. Getting to the playoffs and winning is for good, but not great clubs that get contributions from unsung heroes like prospects.” That sucks. For the sake of argument, what if Olt starts the year with the Rangers, what can we get from him for 2013 fantasy baseball?
In 2012, he hit 28 homers in Double-A in 354 ABs. He struck out too much. 24% in Double-A, and 13 Ks in 16 games in the major leagues. He won’t hit .250 with a strikeout rate that obscene. That’s not even his biggest problem. As of right now, he will platoon with at least Moreland. He could platoon with Young, Beltre and maybe an outfielder. He will start every game the Rangers face a lefty. The best thing that could happen for Olt is he’s traded to a club that will play him every day (for better or worse with his average). If he stays with the Rangers, he’ll be up in April, or maybe at the latest May. The good news is he will hit for power immediately. I could see him hitting 30 homers with everyday ABs. Since he won’t get that, he’ll hit 15+ homers in limited ABs, and be worth owning in all daily leagues where you can platoon him, or as an everyday corner man in AL-Only leagues. I like him a lot, but he needs a path to 400+ ABs or someone needs to edit the Contending Club Playbook. As of right now, I see his line of 28/16/44/.245/1 in 250 ABs. For what it’s Wuertz, Bill James projects him for 25/9/34/.269/1 in 160 ABs. This shocked me. When Mike Olt was called “Chris Davis” a few years ago, James projected him for 63 homers in 260 ABs.