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Okay, the truth was bound to come out.  I’m really Mike Scioscia.  All of that self-deprecating crap — or self-decrapacating, if you like portmanteaus — was just to throw you off the scent.  Ooh, I’m a Sciosciapath!  Phooey on the hullabalooey!  Ooh, I hate Mike Napoli, but have “Grey” tell you he likes him.  C’mon, that’s the oldest trick in the book!  Even older than the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  And that has “ol’” in its name!  I can’t believe no one picked up on it.  Me and Arte derisively laugh at you.  Before I, Mike Scioscia disguised as Grey, started touting Napoli, half of you schmohawks thought his name was Michael and were only impressed with him after you saw his mom’s nipples.  I’ve been seeing her nipples for the last 12 years!  I’m really Mike Napoli’s father.  And he’s only 12 years old.  Now, where’s Jeff Mathis?  I wanna play him at first and bench Pujols.  So why is Mike Napoli overrated for 2012 fantasy baseball?

Cause he’s a catcher.  Dur!  Right now, he’s being drafted on average at 46th overall.  I thought only Ron Washington was on drugs, but I’m starting to think some of you are too.  I couldn’t get you to draft him before 150 for the last three years and suddenly at the age of 30 he’s being drafted in the top 50?  He just came off a season of a .344 BABIP.  Everything was dropping in for him, so he cut his K-rate and his walk rate went up.  His luck normalizes and guess what?  He’s gonna try and make things happen more, which will push down his walk rate and up his K-rate.  Washington misplaces his devil’s dandruff, blames Napoli and suddenly he’s only playing 4 games a week.  Boom, there goes his counting stats.  I have his projections down for 60/25/70/.250/3.  That’s being fair.  But the obvious negative is the only time he had over 400 ABs in his career he hit .238.  Yay, that’s fun.  Also, he said due to his ankle, he might have to work through some pain this year.  He said this in January.  How about in May when he’s been crouching on it for two months?  That’ll surely get better.  Not to mention, when has a player ever admitted to having pain?  Usually it’s, “I’m good, the shoulder feels fine!  No, this sling doesn’t mean anything!  Could you help me tie my shoelaces?”  Yeah, go ahead and draft Napoli in the top 50 and I’ll take a catcher about ten rounds later.  Now, what do you mean Jeff Mathis is on the Blue Jays?  He’s supposed to be hitting cleanup for us!

64 Responses

  1. Captainpyper says:
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    woof. and filed under DO NOT DRAFT list. I knew 3B was deeper! lol

  2. He’s a career .264 hitter and if you completely throw out 2011, he’s still a career .251 hitter – I think he’s getting too much flack for his batting average. And while his BABIP will certainly fall, it’s not fair to say his k-rate and walk rate will completely regress because of a few balls not finding the hole anymore.

    We all figured Napoli would play better away from Mike Scioscia and in Texas, and we were right in that assessment so I find it surprising that Napoli is now deemed a schmohawk.

  3. Jah says:
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    Keeper question, for anyone to answer…. first some background: 10-team H2H points league. Like most leagues, OPS (batters) and Strikeouts (pitchers) are the stats that correlate highly to point accumulation….although we do tend to chase W’s on the pitching side since they are a worth quite a bit. Maximum of 8-starts per week per team for pitchers. Unlimited at-bats every week on offense (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OFx4, UTIL).
    Keep 5, no strings. Keep a 6th player, from 20th round or later from previous season’s draft. We redraft the rest of our teams towards the end of Spring Training.

    I’m keeping Pujols, HanRam, Votto, CarGo and Stanton. My options for last year’s 20th-round-or-later pick are Michael Pineda or Alex Gordon. Should I keep Gordon and start the redraft with 6 batters, or should I take the risk and go with Pineda?

  4. Jah says:
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    *correlate highest*

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Captainpyper: Hehe

    @bensbias: His HR/FB and BABIP were off the charts last year. If he hit .270 and 25 homers, he wouldn’t be touched in the 4th round and .270/25 is about what we should expect.

    @Jah: Go with Gordon…

  6. @Grey: Fair enough. I can totally appreciate the point in saying don’t draft Napoli (or any catcher for that matter) that high in this years draft since the position is deeper than in years passed. However, I don’t think Napoli deserves the bashing he’s getting in this piece.

    Those estimates are more in line with what we should have expected while he was on the Angels. On Texas (with more regular playing time to boot) his HR/FB should have been expected to rise. 25% is maybe too much, but for his career he is still around 20%. Most projections I’ve seen have him closer to 30 homers and I imagine he should easily surpass the runs and rbi projections you listed playing in that lineup.

    I don’t necessarily expect you to respond to this and have a long debate here, I suppose we can agree to disagree and I’ll keep being a regular.

  7. Big Magoo says:
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    When everyone else hates him, you love him, and now that everyone else loves him, you disown him. You’re such a contrarian, Grey. A contrarian that I agree with, of course (Napoli=Wieters, numbers-wise this year). I doubt I’ll own this schmohawk at his price this year, but I’m liking where I see Jesus falling in mocks. Any insight on how often you think the M’s will put him behind the plate? I can’t wait for him to gain eligibility there.

  8. TheNewGuy says:
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    Nothing about Napoli but instead I know you’re a big fan of the Dread Pirate this year Grey, I’ve got a chance to get him in my keeper league and my question is how much should I give up to get him.

    His current cost in my league is $23, so I if traded for him I could sign him for 1 yr ($26), 2 yrs ($29) or 3 yrs ($31). The trade would probably be A Vizcaino from my farm team and Morse ($3) for Cutch. Firstly do you like Cutch’s keeper value at $23, and secondly do you reckon it’s worth giving up both those guys for him? I agree he should continue to improve but it’s just knowing how much to give away, and whether im better off just sticking with Morse.

    It’s an OBP league too (instead of AVG), so should boost Cutch’s value there.

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @bensbias: Yeah, we can agree to disagree, though I think we agree that he’s being overdrafted, which is the main point, so we’ll agree to agree on that.

    @Big Magoo: Not long at all. Maybe three weeks for ten games played.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @TheNewGuy: I think you should hold. Morse at $3 is too good to give up there.

  11. mauledbypandas says:
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    Agree that Napoli is being drafted too early, however I could see .275/30/85 or better. Then again, this is a guy who was playing 3 games a week until July last year.

  12. ChickenDinner says:
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    ey grey, which one of these keepers would you go with – will be kept for next 3 years in 5×5 10 team league.

    1. Mike Napoli C (would cost me my 9th round Pick each of the next 3 years)
    2. Gio Gonzalez (11th round pick)
    3. Michael Morse 1B, OF (13th round pick)
    4. Mike Moose (15th round pick)
    5. Drew Stubbs OF (8th Round pick)
    6. Adam Lind 1B, OF (14th round pick)
    7. BJ Upton OF (4th round pick)

    Tough call deciding who i wanna be stuck with the next 3 years… Leaning Morse or Napoli(before i read this post), and like you said we may have already seen Morse’s best. Thoughts on Gio next 3 yrs in NL?

    Thanks !

  13. L-Boogie says:
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    Pat Burrell retiring.

    Time to take him off your upcoming Top 2500 Outfielders for 2012 Fantasy Baseball post.

  14. Steve says:
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    @L-Boogie: Lock up your daughters.

    And probably your wives.

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: To bring it full circle, I’d like to see Pat the Bat date Napoli’s mom. Then Napoli thanks his dad in an interview and Pat the Bat is there smiling.

  16. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Can’t imagine anything more perfect than that.

    Except perhaps for Utley watching them through a peephole in the wardrobe.

  17. weas says:
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    I loved Napoli when I could snag him off waivers (last year) or draft him in the 17th round (two years ago). Top 50 is INSANE.

    It’s just something about that “30″ in the homer column…

  18. royce! says:
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    I recall last year, and possibly in 2010, in snake drafts you wanted to get a later pick instead of an earlier one in order to grab two top 15 or so players. Does the same hold for this year? I mean, draft position is always random, so it doesn’t really matter which anyone would prefer, but it’s the freaking off-season so I have to think about something…

    Also, I agree about Napoli, if only because drafting a C early has got to be one of the riskiest plays in FBB. Seems that you could make a post entitled “Any Catcher drafted in the First Eight Rounds, 2012 Fantasy Schmohawk.” Might cut down on page hits though.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha…I picture Utley slicking Burrell’s hair back with pomade.

    @weas: Agreed, if he had 29 homers he probably be drafted around 70th.

    @royce!: Ha! Yeah, could… I always enjoy the turn in drafts. You can grab two players of near equal value at the turn and not worry about what others are doing. I like to be able to start runs on players too. Grab two closers in the 11th and 12th rounds and suddenly people panic that all the closers are going…

  20. Wake Up says:
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    Napoli seems like a slam dunk…good call

  21. Steve says:
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    @royce!: In leagues where you’re not drafting against Razzballers, the turn might be a place you can get Longo as well as your super-tasty first-round pick.

  22. Wake Up says:
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    Bill Hall to NYY maybe…pick him up for Mother’s Day…dude loves pink bats and the pink hats love that…

  23. Tom says:
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    Ive got Napoli at $7 this year for my keeper league. Needless to say even if he only hits Grey’s projections (which I personally think he will exceed) he will be a huge bargain for me.

  24. Derek in Utah says:
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    Thank you Grey…I will NOT be drafting Napoli this year.

  25. Hans says:
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    Long time Crapoli lover here, have had him the last two seasons and he carried me to a championship last year, but I’m definitely not paying a top 50 price. I’ll take crap-light aka arencibia in the 18th round.

  26. Kevin says:
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    Here’s a tough one Grey, but I hope you can help.

    10 team keeper league (8 keepers max).

    Batting Stats: R, HR, RBI, 2B, K, BB, SB, OPS, AVG,
    Pitching Stats: ERA, K, BB, WHIP, K/BB, OBA, W, L, HR

    Team:
    Stanton
    J. Upton
    Bruce
    Posey
    Tulowitzki
    Phillips
    Verlander
    Price
    Wainwright
    (and lots of non-keepers)

    I’m thinking of keeping 7 of 9, dropping Wainwright and Phillips, leaving me with an empty keeper slot to draft. Am I making the right move? Is Posey worth it?

  27. sandles says:
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    @Grey
    I came across last night a expert mock draft(12 teams) on MDC. I saw team Razzball drafting out of the five hole. I know it was just a mock but could you post the roster for team Razzball?

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wake Up: Thanks!

    @Wake Up: Ha!

    @Tom: Yup

    @Derek in Utah: Cool

    @Hans: Exactly

    @Kevin: Could see losing Wainwright, not sure why you’re losing Phillips.

    @sandles: I just wrote up a post about it, will post it in the next week.

  29. Kevin says:
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    “Not sure why you’re losing Phillips”

    Lots of depth at 2B outside of the top tier (Uggla, Utley, Weeks, Zobrist, and Kendrick), speed is getting worse, sub-20 HR hitter, career .275 hitter. I think I might take my chances, and if there isn’t a better option at my pick in the 8th round, I’ll take him back for another year.

  30. chata says:
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    mlb.com is live streaming the dominican league championship (in spanish) .

    right now …. 4-1 … top of the 7th .

    need a fix ?

  31. chata says:
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    lead off homer in bottom of 7th .
    4-2

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kevin: Gotcha

    @chata: Who are some of the big names in it?

  33. chata says:
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    gotta love caribbean ball … lots of advertisements .

    leones team has “frosted flakes” on their batting helmets
    and the home-plate umpire is sporting “samsung” across his
    chest-protector .

  34. chata says:
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    4-2 … bottom of the 8th
    leones threatening a come-back , with 2 on and no outs .

    miguel bautista called in from the pen .
    guess he doesn’t ‘close’ in that league , either .

  35. chata says:
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    fernando rodney called in to close for leones , who lead 5-4 in the top of the 9th , as bautista fails .

  36. chata says:
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    omg .
    rodney gives up 2 out , 2 strike , solo shot .
    emotions running wild .
    5-5 .

  37. Black Beard says:
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    Cespedes not a top 80 OF?

  38. Black Beard says:
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    @Black Beard: Pardon me if this was brought up in the comments of an earlier post.

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Surprising on Rodney, never would’ve expected that.

    @Black Beard: Has he signed somewhere?

  40. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: He has not.

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Black Beard: Gotcha, yeah, then I’ll add him in when he does sign since right now there’s like 15 clubs interested. I think he’s probably a bit overhyped.

  42. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: Gotcha, thanks for the clarification.

    I thought the same thing…but this made me think twice:

    “If Cespedes had signed, he would have ranked somewhere in the 10-15 range on my list. The only systems in which he wouldn’t be a slam-dunk No. 1 would be the Angels (Trout), Rays (Moore), Nationals (Harper), Rangers (Darvish), Mariners (Jesus Montero) and Orioles (Manny Machado).”

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2612878.html

  43. Michael Anthony Napoli was on born October 31, 1981. I really, really, REALLY hope his mom named him after the dude she banged in Van Halen back in ’79.

  44. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    hahah chata… i got the urge too my man. but not sure i’d go that far and watch a carribean league game in spanish. love the dedication though.

  45. Jays Fan says:
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    Grey, I am in a 16 team 6×6 Keep 8 (and one player under 400 AB or 150 IP)

    I have

    J. Upton
    McCutchen
    Hanley
    Hosmer
    Moustakas
    Bourn
    Hanson
    Romero

    I was offered Howie Kendrick and Lance Berkman for Bourn. Do I bite?

  46. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I found that too. Some weird shizz there from some of those guys.

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Black Beard: See, I’ve also heard that Cuban ball is similar to High-A, so that means he’s gonna have problems in the majors.

    @ChrisV82: Ha, I hope so too.

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: They’re eclectic.

  49. Steve says:
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    Bah. Heisey has just been taken in the mock-and-lock. Rotochamp – who are one of the organizations that contribute projections to Fangraphs, have him hitting 30 home runs.

    Seems a tad optimistic. Even James only has him for 14…

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jays Fan: Go for it…

    @Steve: Yeah, especially since he might be in a platoon.

  51. pipa says:
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    OF is pretty shallow, huh? Some early ADP numbers I’ve noticed. Stubbs @124 or Maybin @ 175? And I think Chacin @201 is good value. What are your thoughts Grey?

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @pipa: Those are all good values…

  53. Steve says:
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    Wow. So pitcher rankings next? Gotta say, as far as the hitters go, there’s not a lot to get excited about. Or is that just me?
    Same for everyone I guess but the pool of genuine, reliable offensive studs seems to get smaller every year.

  54. papasmurf says:
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    Napoli is on my avoid list this year especially given the decent somewhat fungible catchers available this year. But he’s already been kept as a keeper in my league so that’s even better.

  55. Garrett says:
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    got offered latos for napoli tonight. Latos is 19 dollars napoli is 6. its 12 team keeper pool pitching is quite hard to acquire as per any pool. my starters right now are weaver and kenedy.

    in 2 deals got offered latos for napoli.

    also got offered cj wilson for starlin castro. Cj is 6 dollars starlin is 2.

    do i accept either deal or both? what do you think. need some help with this please let me know

  56. Garrett says:
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    |I should add i can only keep 8 players

    keepers so far
    ian kennedy 3
    jared weaver 20
    desmond jennings 1
    votto 42
    howard kenderick 1
    castro 2
    napoli 6
    Shane victorino 9

  57. I understand the argument for not drafting Napoli earlyeither in redraft leagues but what about keeper leagues? I am in a 12 team keeper league where most good catchers are being kept. I had Victor Martinez but now all I have is Napoli along with J.Bautista, B.Phillips, J.Lester, plus one more I have not decided. Should Napoli owners even bother?

  58. vince says:
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    Why the hate for Napoli? Twice in minors hit over 29 hrs in under 509 ABS. Three years in a row 20 or more before being traded and hitting 30. If soccia wasn’t such a Napoli hater we’d be talking about one of the best offencive catchers ever piazza light. Now he’s in favorable park lineup and a manager who after may figured out holy crap I have a powerful bat who I can catch dh and play @1b. I c no reason why Napoli can’t or won’t hit 30-40 hrs again.

  59. vince says:
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    In a keeper league 12 teams and we draft entire pitching staffs vs individual pitching. I have Stanton j.Upton Kemp Napoli Wieters Weeks Cabrera SS Cleveland I’m keeping all 3 outfielders so now can only keep 2 Wieters Napoli Cabrera I don’t want to part with Napoli and think he’ll outproduce Wieters this year maybe next but Wieters is 5 years younger and I’ll never get him back if I drop him. And Cabrera is only 26 plays a premium position but is his power spike for real? I doubt it. I thought about keeping both catchers if I don’t get anything better at 1b I can always put Napoli there. Thanks

  60. Marc says:
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    I see Napoli going .275-32-80-70 this year due to the increased playing time, the great ballpark to hit in and the great lineup around him. That’s a lot better than what you get from the bargain bin catchers. I’m not agreeing with all the hate.

  61. Garrett says:
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    I am in a keeper Pool Have Napoli for 6 dollars got offered cc sabathia for him. CC is 28 should I do the deal?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Garrett, 1 catcher or 2 catcher league? How many teams? Take followups to my newest post.

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