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As far as I’m concerned, the greatest thing Bill Simmons ever gave us was the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars.  With that in mind, Michael Pineda made me say, “Wow, he’s Dominican?”  I would’ve went Italian.  I probably would’ve known he wasn’t Italian if I saw he was six-five.  You put my Italian grandfather on my shoulders and we’re lucky to be six-five.  Ay, now where’s the broads?!  Pineda was the Mariners’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year.  His overall numbers were 3.36 ERA in 139 1/3 IP with only 34 walks vs. 154 Ks.  His ERA at Triple-A looks wonky on first glance (4.76), but his FIP was more than a run lower, so I wouldn’t worry about it.  On Stephen’s Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Prospects, he’s at number 15.  In 2009, he had elbow problems, but that appears to be receding into his rear view.  Since the M’s will have room in the rotation for this young righty, there’s an opportunity for him to see time in the rotation in 2011 right from jump street.  So what can we expect of Michael Pineda in 2011 fantasy baseball?

Around an 8 K/9, a high 3 ERA and a solid WHIP.  As his K/BB illustrates, his control has been sharp in the minors, which makes him slightly less risky than the usual rookie pitcher.  There’s still risk though.  In the minors, his ground balls have dropped and his fly balls have risen (literally!).  In Safeco, that’s not a huge hindrance, but he’s not going to pitch every game at home.  I’m guessing if we see him in the rotation right out of Spring Training, he’s going to be skipped here and there later in the year to save his arm.  I’d put his line at 5-6/3.90/1.20/105 in 120 IP.  In single year leagues, I’ll put on the broken record.  I can have any girl in Japan, cause I’m a healthy, hundred and fifty nine pound American boy…..  Wait, wrong broken record.  Oh, here it is.  Rookie pitchers can roofie you.  Like when you’re in a brothel, you have to balance risk and reward for your staff.  Definitely worth pursuing aggressively in keepers.  You are looking at a guy that will be a solid fantasy contributor as soon as 2012 at the ripe age of 23.

From Around The Web

  1. amscalone says:
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    pineda or minor?

  2. Greg says:
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    Got him for $3 in my keeper league – only one other guy knew who he was. That makes them suckers!

  3. I like him a lot. I can see similar numbers Grey. In fact, why only 120 IP projected?
    Safeco is a pitcher’s haven, and the M’s defence is very good. I bet this kid will suprise. I would take him over Drabek, Stauffer and Bailey (to name a few) anyday.

  4. Carl says:
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    Ive quite enjoyed Pineda so far in terms of fantasy. He’s caused several guys in single year leagues I play in to drop far better, more reliable pitchers for him which I can then pick up.

  5. jeffjam says:
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    Grey, what value do you asses to Wilson Valdez considering that Utley will hit 60-day DL sooner rather than later?

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dr. Stats: Because I think the Mariners will limit his IP.

    @Carl: Yeah, those things happen.

    @jeffjam: Nothing outside of 12 team NL-Only leagues. He’s terrible.

  7. royce! says:
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    @Grey: I agree that the Mariners will limit his IP, but he had 139 last year, so I could see them letting him pitch 150 or so. However, he might pitch some of those in AAA so that they can put off his free agency (I don’t understand how it works, but that’s what I’ve read). If they do that, I think we’re back to your projection of 120. So you’re probably right. [Why did I even type this comment?]

  8. Lobster Cola says:
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    “Like when you’re in a brothel, you have to balance risk and reward for your staff.” Grey goes Shakespearean with this pun. Most impressive.

    Question about Razzball league: Are OF slots delineated by LF, RF, CF, or all they all just any outfield position?

    You’re the best, Grey. Thank you! :)

  9. ichirosan says:
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    The team that finished third (so, he’s built to win now) in my 20 man dynasty league drafted Pineda with his first pick instead of Adam Jones despite not having a CF. Am I the only one thinking he’s nuts?

  10. byrone says:
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    Ha! Just the guy I wanted to read about- thanks, grey!

  11. Steve says:
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    7th ST home run for Jake Fox…

  12. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Steve: …only means something if Fox crawls out of his den and finds a starting gig.

  13. royce! says:
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    Too bad Fox has nowhere to play in BAL. That and he’s unathletic like a fox!

  14. tourinct says:
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    @jeffjam: Think Josh Barfield.

  15. Steve says:
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    @simply fred: @royce!: Boys, boys – just passing along the information.

    Maybe I should have left out the ellipsis…

  16. I tip my hat to your Refreshments/Roger Clyne lyrical reference….

  17. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Steve: Kratz and Galvis HOMERED for Philly today…

  18. Glad Louisville was one of my five picks in the ‘Cinderella’ pool. I know nothing about college basketball…

  19. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Steve: Cliff Lee gave up TWO HOMERS in 4 IP today…

  20. yankees2011 says:
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    @Grey: How goes it Grey? We had our draft last night, so I was hoping you could take a quick look at my team and give me your opinion. We are in a 12 Team 6×6 with Holds and OPS and we need 24 Players including 4 Outfielders, 1 UTIL, 5 SP, 4 RP, 1 P, 4 Bench. They are in the order drafted:

    Fielder
    McCutchen
    Kinsler
    Hamels
    BJ Upton
    Reynolds
    Billingsley
    S. Drew
    Pence
    Valverde
    D. Hudson
    Scherzer
    Tabata
    Vazquez
    I. Kennedy
    Volquez
    Raburn
    E. Jackson
    Capps
    Madson
    Uehara
    Arencibia
    McClellan
    Marshall

    I may have issues with Avg. and Saves to name a few. I don’t love it, but I would be interested to hear what you think.

    Thanks much Grey.

  21. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Steve: @simply fred:

    You know that I have been obsessed with Fox for several years now. I have a deep-seated need to be obsessed with a player who will never make it. I call it the Lastings Milledge syndrome.

    BTW, Ivan (Super) Nova threw 6 no-hit innings for the Yanks, as he battles Bartolo Colonoscopy for a spot in the starting rotation.

    @Grey:

    Two potential Reggie Cleveland All-Stars: Danny Valencia and Jason Marquis De Shat, both Jewish

    @Rudy Gamble:

    I wouldn’t feel too bad. Grey still doesn’t know who Brandon Jacobs is. At the same time, he can probably rattle off the starting lineup of the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @yankees2011: Team looks good. A tad too heavy on speed and light power, but not too terrible. I say heavy on speed because of McCutchen, Tabata and Upton. Bit too much. Pitching looks fine.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Danny Valencia’s Jewish? Really?

  23. MetsfanJames says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Im curious why you would project him to have 20 less innings this year. Why dont you think he will pitch more innings this year like young pitchers normally do?

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @MetsfanJames: I’m being conservative. He can pitch more, but he’s very young, there’s no guarantees.

  25. PublicEnemy#1 says:
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    @Grey 16 team, Traditional 22 man roster, we count sv/holds and QS in place of saves and Ws. I project to lead the league in Ks. I have Putz, Motte and Benoit. Jeter is my ss. Aviles is my Mi. CarGo, Krispie, Adam Jones, JUp, Cain, Francisco/DBrown fill out my OF and U. I have Verlander, Haren, DHudson, Volquez, ESantana, Minor, Pineda, Coke and Duensing as SP options.

    I can acquire Tulow and Chapman for JUpside and Volquez.

    Yay or Nay?

  26. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
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    @Grey: rookies kind of drive you nuts in leagues with game started limits as opposed to innings pitched. So many starts that go 5 innings not a very efficient use of resources.

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @OaktownSteve: Yeah, in most leagues they’re more hassle than they’re worth, but occasionally you hit a home run.

  28. Andy says:
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    Hey Grey, had my 13 team auction roto draft this last weekend. what do you think? stats are HR, RBI, R, SB, AVE, OBP, SLG, and Ks, QS, SV, HD, WHIP, ERA, K/9

    i punted saves as they seem to cost a ton in my league and holds are cheap.

    C Miguel Montero 1 keeper
    1B Adrian Gonzalez 22 keeper
    2B Brandon Phillips 24
    3B David Wright 47
    SS Asdrubal Cabrera 1
    IF Mark Reynolds 20
    OF Mike Stanton 1 keeper
    OF Matt Kemp 30 keeper
    OF Jay Bruce 25
    OF Manny Ramirez 13
    UTIL Peter Bourjos 1
    SP Wandy Rodriguez 1 keeper
    SP Jhoulys Chacin 1 keeper
    SP Jered Weaver 23
    SP Francisco Liriano 23
    SP Brett Anderson 16
    RP Fernando Rodney 3
    RP Mike Gonzalez 1
    RP Kerry Wood 1
    RP Hisanori Takahashi 1
    RP Clay Hensley
    BE Mike Minor 1
    BE Javier Vazquez 1
    BE Mike Moustakas 1
    BE Eric Young Jr. 1

  29. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
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    @grey: speaking of hitting a home run, Mike Jacobs CRUSHED one off Darren O’Day last night. More convinced than ever that lefties are going to crush O’Day this year. I think it’ll be Ogando that closes for them.

    Jacobs is pretty blocked in Colorado but kind of interesting to think of him getting regular ab’s at Coors. Could be some value there.

  30. TualatinTwoStep says:
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    Grey,

    Just took over a team in a 12 team 25 man 12 keeper 5X5 dynasty league (say that 5 times fast) and here is what I am looking like after some trades and our unprotected player draft:

    C Posey
    C Posada
    1B Fielder
    1B Belt
    2B Weeks
    2B/3B Prado
    3B Encarnacion
    3B Chisenhall
    SS Hanley
    SS Furcal
    SS Alcides
    OF Crawford
    OF Stanton
    OF Delmon
    OF Fowler
    OF Cain

    SP Halladay
    SP Greinke
    SP Bumgarner
    SP Danks
    SP E Jackson
    SP Pineda
    RP Wilson
    RP Storen
    RP Fuentes

    The 3B situation is obviously bad until Chisenhall gets called up, and thats AFTER getting Prado as a throw in on another trade. Dude had Kouzimanoff as his only 3B when I took over. Thoughts on my team and how to improve it?

  31. Steve says:
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    The following is passed on as I read it and does not reflect my views on the subject in any way:

    Marcum left his start today with shoulder tightness. Brewers manager acknowledged he’s concerned about the probem.

    “Not good” says Olney.

  32. MetsfanJames says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Jake Fox is tearing up the spring for Balt. He was a big prospect and could finally put it together if had the chance. He also qualifies at 1B, OF and Catcher in yahoo. What are do you think his chances are of getting playing time all year with Lee hurting and Vlad as DH?

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Andy: Looks like a very solid team. You might struggle a bit in OBP, steals and average though. Pitching looks fine.

    @OaktownSteve: Yeah, definitely could be Ogando. Still waiting to hear Feliz is the closer though. Jacobs looks like a guy that will be retired in a year or two.

    @TualatinTwoStep: Hitting looks like a bit of a mess. Can you trade Halladay for a top 3B and a 2nd tier SP? Say Zimmerman and Kershaw? Youk and Lester? Something like that.

    @Steve: Ugh… Thanks for the
    heads up!

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @MetsfanJames: He’s garbage until he actually has a starting job.

  35. Schrute Buck says:
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    C- Wieters
    C- Arencibia
    1B-Teixeria
    2B-A. Hill
    3B- Alex Rodriquez
    SS- H. Ramirez
    MI-Andrus
    CI-Alvarez
    OF- Kemp
    OF- Justin Upton
    OF- Pence
    OF-Tabata
    OF-Bruce
    U- Lind

    P- Kershaw, Brett Anderson, Billingsley, Gio Gonzalez, Chacin, Kennedy, Dirty Sanchez, Bumgarner, Zimmerman, McGee, Storen, Gregg, Raunchy Rauch, Fuentes

    Bench- OF-Snider

    Cliché opening: Grey, long time reader, first time poster. Completed a 10 team (roto 5×5) CBS $ league draft and would like your input on any weakness with my team. Yea, yea a 10 team league is like doing girl push-ups while strength training, but I want to win money and not a bobblehead coughESPNcough for winning a league.

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Schrute Buck: Yeah, your team looks stacked. Assuming you don’t strain yourself doing girl push-ups and end up not being able to do pick ups during the season I see no reason why you can’t contend with this team. Crazy the team people can put together playing in ESPN. It honestly looks like you drafted 9 guys in the first five rounds.

  37. Craig says:
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    Grey,

    I own Pineda, and there is a lot to like. However, I read something about his lack of polished secondary pitches. Any concern here?

    Still a good dynasty pick?

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Craig: He’s going to be up and down this year, still fine in dynasty leagues.

  39. Craig says:
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    Shoot, forgot to ask my second part.

    I was offered Cain and Billingsley for Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez, and Mat Latos?

    Is this worth doing? (Dynasty as mentioned above)

    Thanks!

  40. Schrute Buck says:
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    Grey, have you heard of this casting of “Dream Job” by mlb.com? The job is watching every baseball game and blogging about it and the same about baseball topics. Who would do such a thing? Applications are already closed, but if they carry it over into next your you should put your mustache to the grind stone.

  41. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    A continuation of last post’s question about carrying two RP that are in a committee:

    If it’s mid-May and Farnsworth and McGee are still sharing duties, you prefer trading one off instead of keeping both, correct?

  42. motorcitykitty says:
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    Hey Grey. I’ve been pouring over the site of late and have worked myself into a slight panic as I realize that you are not very big on Martin Prado and I drafted him only a couple spots lower (81st overall) than his projected value on other sites. A. How worried should I be, and B. Should I try to trade up at 2B now while his “perceived” value is highest?

  43. chata says:
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    latos showing some anger management issues

  44. Steve says:
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    @Schrute Buck: Grey typing while MLB looks over his shoulder?

    Hmmm – can’t see it somehow ;-)

  45. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Grey:

    Not only Danny Valencia, but Ike Davis as well:

    “Back in late May it was Ike Davis, 23, the son of Ron Davis former major league relief pitcher (481 games between 1977-88), who is presently the starting first baseman of the New York Mets. The son of a Jewish mother is having a decent campaign batting .250, driving in 53 runs and has smacked 15 taters; a Mets’ rookie record with seven weeks yet to play.
    And now, for those of you who follow the relatively close-by Twins in Minnesota, the team called up third-baseman Danny Valencia on June 3rd and he has already become a fan favorite. The Jewish kid from Boca Raton, Florida is regarded as an underdog in that he was the team’s 19th round (576th) selection in the 2006 Major League Baseball Draft… ” Jewish Post and News, 8/14/2010

  46. Luke T says:
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    So you’d hold on to Ian Kennedy before you pick up a guy like Pineda any day of the week right?

  47. jjr says:
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    ” Like when you’re in a brothel, you have to balance risk and reward for your staff.”

    OK, I’ve been obsessively reading this site ever since my wife started writing her mid-term Russian lit papers about two weeks ago, but this. With all due respect to the Zack Greinke/Sylvia Plath crack, this might be the funniest line that I’ve come across yet!

    Who the hell are you guys, and why haven’t I heard of you until now?

  48. carlos marmLOL says:
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    “I can have any girl in Japan, cause I’m a healthy, hundred and fifty nine pound American boy”

    TOO SOON

  49. Shawn says:
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    Hi Grey. Long time, first time . . .
    we play 7 x7 with holds, obp, losses, CG and shutouts, GS, 3Bs and batter Ks

    one and done league standard yahoo with 3 OFs and 2 UTIL
    3 SP, 3 RP, 3 P, 5 Bench, 3 DL

    C – Jorge Posada
    1B – Lance Berkman
    2B – Ryan Raburn
    SS – Stephen Drew
    3B – David Wright
    OF – Jayson Heyward
    OF – Mike Stanton
    OF – BJ Upton
    U – Big Papi
    U – Brandon Belt

    SP – Roy Halladay
    SP – Justin Verlander
    SP – Dan Haren
    Closers – K-Rod and Joel Hanrahan

  50. Shawn says:
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    Hi Grey. Long time, first time . . .
    we play 7 x7 with holds, obp, losses, CG and shutouts, GS, 3Bs and batter Ks

    one and done league standard yahoo with 3 OFs and 2 UTIL
    3 SP, 3 RP, 3 P, 5 Bench, 3 DL

    C – Jorge Posada
    1B – Lance Berkman
    2B – Ryan Raburn
    SS – Stephen Drew
    3B – David Wright
    OF – Jayson Heyward
    OF – Mike Stanton
    OF – BJ Upton
    U – Big Papi
    U – Brandon Belt

    SP – Roy Halladay
    SP – Justin Verlander
    SP – Dan Haren
    Closers – K-Rod and Joel Hanrahan
    Holds – Ryan Madson, Aroldis CHapman, Kenley Janson, Rafael Soriano
    Bench – Pineda, Mike Minor, Johan, Peavy

    I feel like I need an upgrade at 1B. What should I do? Any comments on my team?

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