For a few years, I talked about how Mike Minor or Kris Medlen were gonna be my last round starter flyer in all leagues. Never really worked out. Sure, I snatched Medlen off waivers last year when he needed to be, but for a few years they were drafted and dropped numerous times before they rewarded fantasy owners. I don’t tell you this to remain modest. Does my mustache make me look like a man of modesty? I tell you this so you know where I’m coming from when I say I’m going to draft Matt Harvey in every league. At some point, he’s going to be a top starter. It may not be this year, it may not be next year, but at some point he’ll be there. You can look at this as a Matt Harvey sleeper post, a rookie outlook post or simply a heads up that I need to get me some of this young brother, in the non-biblical way, unless there’s a clergyman reading and he gives me his Razzblessing. Speaking of which, do we have any priest or rabbi readers? I could see a Sunday sermon including SAGNOF (Satan Ain’t Got No Face) and how Jesus Montero was a fanny pick. In Harvey’s short-stint in the majors, he did some bedazzling work on fantasy owners’ jean jackets. A 10+ K-rate and a 2.73 ERA in 59 1/3 innings. Awesome called and said he wishes he was more descriptive because that doesn’t do Harvey justice. So what can we expect of Matt Harvey for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
His minor league numbers show evidence that the Ks weren’t a fluke, but a 10+ K-rate is the absolute ceiling. In Triple-A, he topped out at just over nine Ks per nine innings. He hits 97 MPH with regularity and averages a 94.7 MPH fastball. Over the course of the season, that would put his fastball velocity third in the majors tied with Verlander and just behind David Price and Jeff Samardzija. Just behind him are guys like Max Scherzer, Matt Moore, Jordan Zimmermann… You starting to see the picture here? (The homophone works there too.) Like a few other guys on that list, BBs unravel Harvey from time to time. Last year, he had a 3.94 BB/9. No pitcher with a walk rate that poor had an ERA below 3.61 last year and many were way above it. Guys like Masterson (3.84 BB/9) had an xFIP of 4.15, but his Ks were nowhere near Harvey’s talent level. Yu Darvish was near Harvey for Ks and BBs and had a 3.52 xFIP; Gio showed a bit more control with Ks and had a 3.38 xFIP, but this is no exact science. If Harvey maintains a 10+ K-rate over a full season, he’s ownable in all leagues. If he falls to a 9+ K-rate like in Triple-A (more likely), he’s going to need to cut his walks a hair to be ownable in all mixed leagues. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 10-7/3.92/1.34/192 in 188 innings. That’s a roller coaster fifth starter, but definitely someone with immense upside and worthy of a late-round gamble in all leagues.
Grey,
I have Harvey in a keeper league. He’s cheap now, and I can hold onto him at a minimal annual escalating cost for two more years after this season. Another owner has Medlen under the exact same circumstances. Which of the two would you rather own over the next three season? Thanks!
Fortunately, I have both. I’m a VERY lucky guy! (Or gal to be more accurate) LOL
One of the three female readers!
@Joel: Medlen
So in other words, Max Scherzer in the 13th round instead of the 7th. I can dig it.
Also, what in the world is Bryce Harper doing in the second round of MDC? These January ADPs are always giving me an ulcer.
@Eddy: I MDCed him in the 9th. Their ADPs are still whack.
@Eddy: Yeah, 2nd round is screwy…
Matt Harvey is grey’s long lost brother – http://www.google.com/search?q=matt+harvey+mustache&hl=en&tbo=d&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=vhrsUOiBO4a30QGt9oDICw&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&biw=320&bih=416#i=1
@Tom: This link works better – http://snymets.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/matt_20harvey.jpg?w=664
@Tom: More like my kid…
I’m a Clergyman, Grey (a Lutheran Pastor). You certainly have my razzblessing, and the SAGNOF sermon (stroke of genius!) is officially in the works. Now, pay me off by telling me if you’d trade Kimbrel for Allen Craig in a dynasty points league.
@Doog: Amen! I wouldn’t make that trade…
Grey,
I’ve seen many keeper questions with Medlen thrown in as an option, and haven’t seen you choose him once. Is there just that much more of an edge for position players vs starters? It’s your boy Kris Medlen for Giancarlo’s sake!
If you had to throw out one you’re throwing out Medlen? (No corner infield spot, keepers rounds 9-12)
Allen Craig, Ian Desmond, Anthony Rizzo, Will Middlebrooks, Kris Medlen
Also have you ever thought about auctioning off your Mustache trimmings for natural disaster/tragedy victims?
Think of all the blankets they could make! Could make a difference…
@Dave: I just did above… I’ve already done that with the trimmings… There’s huts in Ghana that save all the smells that pass through them… I wouldn’t keep three corner men with no CI… I’d lose Middlebrooks…
I recall you talking about pitchers that had massive innings jumps from one year to the next. Samardzja had a spike. I believe Minor had a big jump this past year too. Do you think those guys are more likely to find sustained success this year than say Dan Straily, Mike Fiers, Kris Medlen or Matt Harvey? Can we expect an innings jump post sometime soon?
PS, we’re all dying to start seeing the 2013 draft prep posts!!!!
@Hats for Bats:
Don’t believe the hype on Straily. His stuff definitely did not translate all the way to the bigs. I think he was successful in the minor because his breaking stuff is advanced and he’s a legitimate 4 pitch pitcher, but in watching him it’s clear that the slider is the only one of the four pitches that’s anywhere near becoming a plus pitch at the MLB level. The fastball is low 90s with not a ton of movement. Curve and change are serviceable and he mixes them well. K rate was 7.32/9 and I actually expect it might go a shade lower. He’s going to be nowhere near his minor league rates. The O.co and the A’s defense actually encourage a pitch to contact approach anyway.
As and A’s fan, I hope that he develops into a solid 3, 4 or even a 5 but based on what I saw I’d say that’s his ceiling.
@OaktownSteve: command goes a long way, if he can limit HR’s he should be solid…
@Hats for Bats: I don’t buy into the whole Verducci Effect thing… A huge jump isn’t great, but it’s not the end all…
Have you ever announced your criteria for these sleeper posts? I know that you have a fetish for power bats/arms (who doesn’t) and I was wondering if there was some kind of early ADP cutoff that you use for these posts or it’s more of a gut feeling?
@Big Magoo: No criteria other than they are being undervalued… A guy in the 12th round who should go in the 7th is a sleeper…
@Grey: Cruz, Morse, Howard, and Uggla for aging power bats on the cheap; Krispie, Belt, Moose, and J. Montero in the old razzball favorites/ young post-hype category; Samardzija, Lester, Anibal, Minor, Fiers, Estrada, Hughes, and Garza in the cheap power arms/ K-rate category; and Gardner in the SAGNOF category for good measure. Am I getting warm?
@Big Magoo: There’s a few names in there, but only about half… Some of those guys are just old with diminishing skills…
@Grey: Yeah, I know… I was just trying to make an educated guess… I probably won’t touch Howard, Uggla, Garza, and Hughes but I know that you’ve liked them at various times in the past… Krispie and Lester too, but I’d own them if they fell far enough… Cruz for me was like Hosmer for you last year, so I’ll probably pass… Some of the others I like though (as well as a bunch that I haven’t listed)
Would you trade Desmond Jennings for Samardzija and Harvey?
(H2H, keeper league – both pitchers will be cheap)
@Jon: I wouldn’t…
@Grey I’m not going to be able to keep Jennings so I still might make the trade. Good to know it’s not equal value, though.
Actually, I have Desmond Jennings in a keeper league as well for $4. Was just offered Mike Olt and Jorge Soler for him.
Not sure if I am going to keep Jennings anyway but wondering if
Anthony Rendon would be a better choice than Mike Olt? I am a little concerned about the willingness of Texas to trade Olt and where he would land.
Any guidance would be helpful.
Thanks,
Brian
@Brian: If you’re not keeping Jennings, then no reason to not trade him… I’d take Olt… I would keep Jennings over Olt, Soler and Rendon…
@Grey:
see John Daniels saying Olt and Profar will start at AAA?
My old friend, John Daniels… That wouldn’t surprise me… I didn’t see it, where are you seeing it at?
@Grey:
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/texas-rangers/post/_/id/4894779/jurickson-profar-likely-to-start-2013-in-minors
Thanks! Profar seems like an easy call… Be surprised if Olt starts the year in the minors, but not totally shocked…
@Grey:
The Rangers have been so emphatic about the “we believe in Mitch Moreland” thing over the years that you almost want to start and believe that they really do believe in him.
Honestly, I just Googled Moreland’s defense and I’m still not sure why they believe in him so much, but yes it does seem like they do… When they had Hamilton, I understood them not needing some more pop at 1st, but now it’s confusing and I wouldn’t be surprised if by May they’re starting to lag and feel the need to infuse Olt for pop…
@Grey:
Hi Grey,
so would you keep Jennings at $4 versus Grandy at $25?
my current keepers are:
Yadier (C) $1, Allen Craig ($1), Miggy ($42), Zobrist ($11), Adam Jones ($29), Grandy ($25), Greinke $27, Kimbrel $7
Yup…
@Brian: Yeah, at that price keep Jennings.
@Wallpaper Paterson:
Thanks Grey and Wallpaper.
Grey,
In your keeper league with salaries, how do you handle players picked up as free agents during the season.
Example-
Ruben Tejada does not bought at the auction. He clears waivers and becomes a free agent. An owner picks him up in June for free and in the fall wants to keep him. What should his salary be? $1, $5?
I played in a league with an auction and anyone not drafted had a value of $4. It seemed okay, but not sure it was the best way to handle it.
Thanks in advance,
Wallpaper
No one is picked up for free… You enter a bid amount for all free agents with a $100 FAAB total… So if you want to pick up Tejada, you bid a $1, then his salary goes up to $6 for next year…
@Grey: Thank you to everyone who responded.
We did use the FAAB system but it was for only claiming guys off waivers. Once they cleared waivers you could get them through a simple add/drop and did not have to spend any FAAB money.
You should change it so there’s a minimum bid of a $1 for everyone…
@Wallpaper Paterson:
Hey Wallpaper,
In my keeper league, the price paid to pick a guy up becomes his first year salary. And then future years are based off of that salary.
Rgds,
Brian
@Wallpaper Paterson: i’m in a couple different auction leagues and we use a 10 salary for all non drafted players. it adds a little strategy for the end game of the draft. in the shallower of the two leagues i drafted b harper for a buck at the end instead of a guy like v wells to fill my last o.f. spot. why draft a schmoe for a buck when u can take a shot on a young guy in the minors. first comment in a while sorry for going off lol.
Even though I walk in the valley of BB’s. I believe in the K’s. Chorus of “Amen’s”ring out.
Well brother Grey you make a good case and if he’s available in the late teens,I’ll pick him up. Should get some good matchup’s as a spot starter and you never know. If he stays out of the valley,and hear’s the call. He could take us to the promised land. The land of Win’s with K’s. Hallelujah !!!!!!!!
@Big AL: Amen, brother!
My keeper league team is built for the long haul but needs some work for this year. I have a glut of possibly keepable 3b, but I’d like to trade at least two of them before the draft. Who should I protect and who should I look to deal? (Our league is pretty complex, for simplicities sake here are broad details. 14 team, 24 man starting rosters. Keep 12 players. $260 cap pre draft. Player can be kept for a maximum of 5 years, with escalating salaries by 4 starting in the 3rd year)
Lawrie, (4 years left, $3), Machado (5, $3), Frazier (4, $9), P. Alvarez (4, $7)
Preference would be to keep Lawrie and Machado but they also would have the most trade value, so it may be worth it to shop them for upgrades somewhere else. Team is built around Harper, Trout, Rizzo, Lawrie with a ton of minor league pitching that may or may not contribute this year (Bundy, Teheran, Walker, Jose Fernandez, G. Cole) so I’m looking at shooting for the money this year and contending for multiple titles starting in ’14.
I’d keep the ones you prefer to keep… Frazier isn’t great at $9 (it’s fine, just not great) and same with Alvarez…
Mr. Gray… I going backwards, sorry, And if I missed your talk about him in the past somehow – even more sorry…… Back to backwards… Your SS sleepers – I forgot to mention Nakajima the other day… How do you rate him???
Personally, I see him as a total wild card – based on decline in the NPL (maybe, the nuclear depression got to him – interestingly Godzilla has decided to keep his family here and not return home for retirement – can you say, Fukushima – sad, my heart goes out to them all there) and the fact Nakajima is new the America… Aoki broke the recent ugly spell of unsuccessful Japanese position players in the 2nd half last season… Can Nakajima???
On Matt Harvey.. Where do you place him in 12 team and 16 team mixed leagues… Understanding he is a Met after all is said and done.. A grim indictment in 2013 fantasy MLB..
I would suspect, he is a desperate pickup by a team that waited too long to address SP pitching in a 12 team format… Where 4 quality SPs trumps all else…
But, when it comes to 16 team play, it is a different story… Is he a 4th or 5th SP for you there… Or are you going to shock me… Just so you know – and not to worry – I am sitting down
Razzball for hotstove fantasy BB sites ” Is the best there ever was”…
@t moore:
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/gif-for-the-people-hiroyuki-nakajima-bat-flip/
my gut says he hits .250 with 20 steals, and not a lot else. What’s nice is that is actually a slight improvement of what they got offensively from the SS position last year.
Some decent breakdown on projecting Japanese players at both BP and Fangraphs.
@t moore: http://razzball.com/seattle-bats-need-cialis-settle-for-morales/
5×5, 10 team roto league (OPS & wins bonuses). my keeper options are (have to choose 5) along w/ their price:
I can keep only 1 or none of these guys (because drafted top 50 last year in my league):
Miggy (1st round pick)
Price (5th)
Verlander (2nd)
Kershaw (2nd)
Kemp (1st)
Stanton (3rd)
remaining options:
Trout (20th)
Desmond (18th)
Dickey (last available pick)
Strasburg (6th)
medlen (last available pick)
miggy and trout are no brainers for me.
your imput is much appreciated.
Miggy, Trout, Medlen, Dickey, Strasburg…
@Grey:
why medlen over desmond? you think desmond played over his head last year?
I do think he played over his head… I almost wrote Desmond instead… So it’s very close… Could see going either way…
@Grey:
so I’ll shop both of them pre-draft and see which one nets me the better draft pick. best way to make a decision, let someone choose for you.
Yeah, agreed…
Can’t wait for February Grey! Is it February yet? Okay, now is it??
Need some help on keepers. 5×5, 10 team, NL only auction ($300) w/8 keepers (13 hitters, 10 pitchers total w/1C, 5OFs, 3U). No limits to how long you can keep someone, and prices are reset every year based on a standard mag. Big emphasis on elite players (with decent miles left in the NL) as a result. Catchers and RPs hardly ever kept. SP more valuable than most leagues.
At these prices, which 8 keepers would you keep? (remaining money from $300 pool goes into your auction dollars for everyone’s who left)
3B Wright $31
SP Strasburg $30
SS/3B Hanley $28
SP The Adverb $27
OF Marte $22
2B Uggla $21
OF Crawford $19
1B/OF Colvin $17
SS D. Gordon $16
C W. Rosario $13
RP Axford $13
SP Lincecum $12
RP Cishek $12
1B Alonso $11
SP Minor $8
SP Santana $6
OF Eaton $1
OF B. Jackson $1
OF Ruf $1
OF Eric Young $1
SP Jenry Mejia $1
We have a DL and you can keep someone who is injured as long as you eat the first week of stats in your active lineup before moving them to the DL in wk 2. Thanks for any help you can provide!
@birrrdy!: forgot one more option:
OF O. Taveras $1
Cliff Lee, Strasburg, Crawford, Wright, Hanley, Marte, Lincecum, Alonso… Could see Minor instead of Alonso…
@Grey: Thanks! Jaunary Grey rocks too!
For that last spot you have going to either Alonso or Minor, do any of the super-cheap $1 long-term keeper options make sense like Taveras, Eaton or Jackson? Were you tempted at all to say Rosario? (prices on other catchers were Posey-30, Montero-17, molina-17, lucroy-5, mccann-4, ruiz-3, by way of reference…)
Thanks! If you use magazine prices, I don’t see how a long term guy will matter… None of those three are gonna be more than $7 next year and probably a lot less than that… I’d want McCann from those and that means he was on waivers last year if he’s that cheap… Rosario is no great bargain for $13… Just punt catcher…
@Grey: Got it, sounds good. Just realized I made a typo with Lincecum’s price. He’s $16 (not $12). Ugh. Still makes your cut?
@birrrdy!: I’d replace him with Minor…
Longtime reader…just thought id ask your opinion on my team/draft strategy for my upcoming auction draft. 12 teams 5×5 with $270 cap. Each year player salaries add $3 if kept. This is my team im planning keeping and would like to know if you would keep these players at their prices and whether you would target one more big bat/arm in auction or fill it out with 4 or 5 decent players.
C
1B rizzo $7
2B Altuve $4
3b frazier $7
Ss rutledge $7
CI goldschmidt $10
Mi seager $4
Of mccutchen $32
Of hamilton $32
Of choo $20
Of gordon $8
Of soriano $4
U
P chapman $8
P cueto $8
P Strasburg $9
P samardzija $7
P f. Hernandez $34
P
P
P
P
Bn
Bn
Bn
Bn
Bn
Thanks for the feedback. I should have $69 left to fill out my roster.
I thought it was an NL-Only team there for a second… Don’t like AL-ers, huh? I like your team a lot… I’d use my remaining resources for 4 or 5 decent players…
@Grey: thanks for the feedback. I just noticed the nl heavy keepers. Ha!
T.Hanson or Medlin in a keeper league?
Medlen
I’m in a 5×5 Keeper League and I get to keep 2 players. One will be Verlander and the other I can’t decide. Should I keep Matt Cain or Edwin Encarnacion?
Edwin
Since the majority of top tier batters will be kept, I thought Cain would be a better choice if I could heavy on SP/RP. I was thinking of conceding Runs, RBI and HR and get batters that go for cheap but hit for ave. and sbs. That way I could hopefully win 6-4 or 7-3 every week.
Thoughts?
I wouldn’t overthink how you’re going to win categories and try to win every category and then adjust on Friday of each week if you’re losing one category…
Thoughts on my team?
C Posey $15
1B Gonzalez $28
2B Cano $29
3B Lawrie $19
SS Tulo $30
MI Desmond $10
CI Frazier $3
OF Stanton $24
OF Rasmus $4
OF
OF
DH Hosmer $21
3 bench spots
SP Bumgarner $15
SP Minor $10
SP Zimmermann $9
SP Medlen $3
SP Anderson $3
(…I like to carry 10 SP)
5 RP
I have the cash for one more keeper, I think: Marte in OF or Lester at SP? Both $3
LOL I have no idea what that photo is…
I’d go Lester probably… No idea of the depth of this league to tell you my thoughts…
Is Harvey supposed to open the year in the majors? Think there’s a chance he spends any more time in the minors at all?
Suppose to open the year in the majors… Obviously if he screws the pooch in the spring that could change…
I can keep 5 of these players, giving up the Round listed for each. each year i can keep them at for one round earlier than the previous year. Options:
4th Rd Verlander
9th Rd Granderson
5th rd Kimbrel
20th Rd D Jennings
Last Rd Chapman (waiver pick up)
Last Rd Profar
Last Rd Machado
12th Rd Goldschmidt
Last Rd I Desmond
Which 5? 10 team league. Thanks
Verlander, Grandy, Chapman, Goldy, Jennings…
Having owned Desmond all year, I’d go with him over grandy only because of age /upside. IF Desmond is a 25/25 caliber ss, then your last round status for him will turn a healthy profit for years to come
Two years from now will you still be keeping grandy at a 7th round pricetag? With the depth in OF, I’d lean toward scarcity.
No disrespect grey.
Hey Grey -
would you draft Harvey ahead of SP like Lester, Lincecum and CJ Wilson? Just trying to get a feel of where he ranks among those mid-tier SP. Thanks!
Rankings will be coming shortly… I wouldn’t draft him before those guys…
Who’s more likely to keep and succeed in the closer role this year: Janssen or Cishek? Soriano still has to sign somewhere and I could see it being the Jays, but you never know…
Cishek
@Grey: I am being offered Votto and Stanton for my Miggy, Bumgarner and 1 of my Dunn, Howard or Cruz. Should I do it?
Yup… Throw ‘em Dunn…
I own Pujols in a keeper league. Should I think about trying to sell this year at some point or is he still a top keeper for a few more years?
Is Alex Cobb a sleeper for 2013?
Yeah, if he holds the fifth spot in the rotation….
Keep one, thinking long-term as much as 2013: Lester, Harvey, Cobb, Straily
Harvey
NL-only H2H points league…can keep 7. Weak team. Best option for the final slot is:
Todd Frazier or Josh Rutledge
I think Rutledge is riskier, but with the 2B/SS pool being weaker do I go with him?
Frazier
Who do you suggest i keep – 12 team H2H Mixed.
Belt, Brandon
Madson, Ryan
Perez, Salvador
Rios, Alex
Niese, Jonathon
Desmond, Ian
Presley, Alex
Ugh… It’s not easy… I’d go with Desmond…
Need to keep six in a keeper..
Adam Wainwright, Brandon Morrow, Matt Moore, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Kris Medlen, Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran, Taijuan Walker. I’m leaning towards the 1st six..
Yup, first 6…
It’s time to come clean, Grey.
It was you that cast a vote for Aaron Sele for the Hall of Fame, wasn’t it?
Well, if I’m gonna come clean… I’m really Aaron Sele.
@Grey: Hehe. Seems to be a fair bit of interest in Javy Vasquez again, with a the suggestion he might make a comeback. I know he done you and Rudy wrong in one league recently, but does this set your mustache twitching?
Nah, no interest in him unless he lands on the Mariners or Padres and then only for home starts…
Grey … NL-only dynasty league. We keep 8. I’ve got seven dudes, help me with the eighth: Votto, Kemp, Hanley, Sandoval, Gio, Cliff Lee, Jordan Zimmermann. Then pick between Pagan, Werth and Marte. Gotta be Werth, right, despite his graying undercarriage?
Marte
Which 5 do you keep from: Bumgarner, Medlen, Minor, Zimmermann, Anderson, Anibal, Lester… first 5?
Lester over Brett Anderson…
Hey G,
wondering if I could get some advice in this uber-competitive keeper league I play in…12 team standard 5×5 (W,K,ERA,WHIP,SV and AVG,R,HR,RBI,STL)…a league in which the best players will go in the low-mid $40′s…$5 increment each year..$260 salary cap.
I’ve decided to go forward with the following players entering next year:
SP Harvey $6
SP Sale $8
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
C
1B
2B Kipnis $13
3B
SS
1B/3B
2B/SS
OF Stanton $16
OF Adam Jones $17
OF Austin Jackson $7
OF McCutchen $22
OF
UTIL
Bench
Bench
…A lot of the top hitters will be off the board and I need to get big boppers at the corner infield spots and a couple proven starters…Taking the SAGNOF approach (not paying for steals/saves), what do you think I should focus on in the draft? I see a lot of SP sleepers, but I know I can’t rely on Sale’s arm or Harvey’s imminent inning cap. Should I just focus on loading up with starting pitching/how many big bats should I sign?
Thanks
You need a big 1B and 3B bat… And you need some solid #2 and #3 SPs… Sale’s not great as a number but you gotta play the cards you’re dealt…
@Grey: As always, thanks for the help