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In the top 20 2nd basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball post January Grey mentions that there will need to be an overrated post for Matt Carpenter written at some point.  Way to pass the buck, bucko!  Well, two can play that game, Morris Chestnut, so I’m going to copy some of the shizz January Grey spewed at ya and vomit it right back, “Last year, Carpenter scored 126 runs.  That’s the third highest runs total since 2008.  To give you an idea of what the guys who beat him did the following season:  Granderson scored 136 runs in 2011 and 102 the following year and Trout scored 129 in 2012 and 109 last year.  No one scores 120 runs in back-to-back years without a crapton of steroids.  Do I smell an overrated post coming for Carpenter?  I can’t smell due to a build up of cerumen that’s made its way into my nasal passages, but it sounds about right.  (BTW, the Wikipedia picture for cerumen is so nasty.  Don’t look, seriously.  And now that just made you want to look.  Suckers!)”  And that’s me quoting January Grey!   So, what makes Matt Carpenter overrated for 2014 fantasy baseball?

I wanna talk generally about stat projections that plays into that quote above from January Grey (you bastard!).  Homers and steals are a lot easier than batting average, runs and RBIs to project.  Runs and RBIs are directly connected to the lineups around them and where they’re placed in said lineup.  If the guys behind Carpenter are in an 0-for-30 slump, it doesn’t matter if he’s hit 30 doubles in a row, he will sit at 2nd base.  If the guys in front of him can’t get on base, he won’t drive in anyone without hitting a home run, something he only did 11 times last year.  Batting average is very dependent on luck.  Carpenter makes solid contact, but even solid contact can be caught.  His batting average last year was .318.  If ten balls that went for hits last year were caught (that’s one hit every 16 games), Carpenter would’ve hit .302.  Steals are obvious to predict — guys either have speed or they don’t.  Something Carpenter doesn’t have a whole lot of (3 steals last year).  Power is obvious — can’t hit homers without it.  Carpenter’s 11 homers last year wasn’t good when you consider a very important number — 717 plate appearances.  That’s more PAs than Michael Bay had on his last film.  Since 2000, there has been 90 players that have notched 717 plate appearances.  Of those 90 players, 25 players had less than 11 homers.  That’s actually a larger number than I expected because I forgot something.  You need to be at the top of a good order to get 717 plate appearances, and who’s usually at the top of a good lineup?  A fast player.  Of the 25 players with at least 717 plate appearances and less than 11 homers, no one comes within spitting distance of only 3 steals.  NOT ONE SINGLE PLAYER.  Anyone that has around 3 steals with that many plate appearances usually has 35+ homers.  The best comparisons for Matt Carpenter’s 2013 are Craig Biggio in 2003 (15 HRs, 8 SBs), Michael Young in 2006 (14 HRs, 7 SBs) and Derek Jeter in 2012 (15 HRs, 9 SBs).  Quite the exciting group, huh?  Yeah, and those guys were much better than Crapenter when eliminating runs, RBIs and average.  I’m actually being generous when I project Crapenter for 94/12/69/.304/4.  One DL stint and he doesn’t even reach those numbers.  Don’t trust me?  Our Steamer projections have Crapenter down for 92/12/65/.289/5.  I have him ranked 102 overall, ESPN has him at 68 and Yahoo has him at 52.  As our podcast host, Nick, would say, “You have been advised.”

  1. RJ says:
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    Great read as always, Grey. I know I’m staying far away from Carpenter (especially since there are 2 Cardinal fans in my draft)

    I have a keeper question (10-team 6×6 roto OPS and QS are the extra categories):
    Keep 3 at the round they were drafted in:
    Goldschmidt (5th round)
    Scherzer (7th round)
    Beltre (2nd round)
    Shelby Miller (19th round)
    Lucroy (24th round)

    Which 3 should I keep? Thanks!

    • KrazyCeltic says:
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      @RJ: Goldschmidt and Scherzer are top players at their positions and excellent values in the rounds in which you will keep them. Those two are the definites: an argument can be made for any three of the others. If this is a two-catcher league I like Lucroy.

      • RJ says:
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        @KrazyCeltic: Nah, this is a one catcher league. Thanks for your opinion though! I mean I was leaning Shelby, but there is soooo much pitching! Beltre…he could be picked in the 1st and I’d get the edge of having an elite 3B. If I kept Shelby, and Beltre fell to me in the 2nd round (13th overall) I’d probably take him over Puig, who was my original target, since I wanted to “take a chance on Puig and Bruce” like Grey stated in his rankings. Grey, what are your thoughts, who is my 3rd keeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @RJ: Goldy, Scherzer

      • RJ says:
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        @Grey: And the 3rd one??? L

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @RJ: Beltre

  2. Ryan says:
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    I am in the middle of a prospect draft in my dynasty league. Please help me pick 2?

    maikel franco
    joc pederson
    jon gray
    mark appel
    andrew heaney
    rougned odor
    austin meadows
    miguel aldredo gonzalez
    clint frazier
    raul mondesi jr

    • James says:
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      @Ryan:

      Depends on when you want them:

      Franco- he has shown in the minors he has 30 hr power and a decent average. I could see zimmermann 2.0 (or rolen or any other solid 3b with good power and average and little speed). He is ready now. Upside is really that, so never a 1st round talent, but ownable this year, and 5th round upside.

      Mondesi- has very good speed, developing power. Has elite upside, but at 17, the floor is complete wash out. I like him, but understand that this is a true lottery ticket.

      Gray- Butler will be the first up this year, but Gray could be there. Looks like a future #2 with high K rates. But Coors limits upside, and adds a lot of risk.

      Appel- Floor is fantasy #4, upside is #2, will be on a bad team for the next few years.

      Pederson- Cral Crawford upside, but blocked by an elite OF including the real Crawford. Hit tool also has questions (CC without the average is Colby Rasmus).

      MAG- buried in a system that he is the 3rd best SP prospect. There are already a few good young arms in the bigs, so it gets tough to say he has a clear shot. That team also has messed up some great SP prospects in recent memory.

      Heaney- love the upside, but as a lefty gets prospect ranking love. i think it is the same odd love Skaggs got 2 years ago (as the best Lefty, or Hultzen last year).

      Personally I rank: Franco, Gray, Appel, Frazier, Mondesi…. but i normally go upside over floor in prospects.

    • costaricanchata says:
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      @Ryan:

      gonzalez is slated to be the 5th starter coming out of the gate .
      plus , potential up-side as a # 3 (especially on that team) .
      and , he gets to pitch against the mets .
      granted , still lots unknown about him ,
      since few have seen him in action .

  3. gareth says:
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    I just did a few espn mock drafts today, and was pretty happy with the results. However i came to the realization that the process was totally useless.

    In a razzball league, on draft day we’ll all be targeting the same players. We’ll all be going by the razzball rankings, not espn. There will be no Sleepers and little secret player stashes later in the draft. They’ll be snapped up.

    What have I gotten myself into? I cant even show my hand on this blog without alluding to my strategy on draft day!

    Whats the best course of action in a league of like minded players? Zig when they zag? Draft an anti grey team?

    I can see it now -

    No one taking pitching early.
    catchers being avoided like the plague.
    Razzball sleepers going ridiculously early.

    I think im getting a hairball :-(

    • bossmanjunior says:
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      @gareth:

      My experience last year was not everyone in these leagues follows Grey’s suggestions to the t. Draft strategies will differ a little bit, but obviously not as much in a public league.

      Definitely be prepared for guys to reach more than usual. Last year in ESPN Goldschmidt was criminally ranked around 80 something and someone still reached for him in the 3rd.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @bossmanjunior: goldy’s ADP on MDC last year was like early mid 40′s. I likely barely got him in the 3rd round of my 16 teamer (was a yahoo league, so people likely go more by their projections than espn)

    • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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      @gareth:
      Be a contrarian.

      If elite catchers are sitting there a round or two later grab them.

      Take an elite starter if they fall. Always be looking for value.

      Don’t reach for any of Grey’s sleepers, let them come to you.

      Study other sites projections and sleepers.

    • centerfield_ballhawk says:
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      @gareth: Join an NFBC league… use Razzball as your guide… win the cash.

    • NewLeaf says:
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      @gareth: in a situation like this I’d use other publications that maybe like certain players that razzball doesn’t, maybe adjust your strategies a bit (go earlier on pitching at the top, then grab middle round values while others are snatching up pitching). It very hard to play in a league where you are all using the same strategies and cheat sheets. My guess is that certain players will get overdrafted as everyone tries to beat the others to preferred players. But I do believe that means that some players will fall and certain overrated players will hit points in the draft where they now have value. I would just keep my options open and don’t look at anyone as not draftable. Using this thread as an example, Carpenter will fall in a Razzball draft…and fall far. I also believe he’s overrated, but there will be a point in the draft where he’ll provide value. Be open to grabbing those guys.

    • Pops says:
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      That happened to me last year. So I zigged and zagged. took lee and wainwright in 3-4 took Napoli to catch in 10 they left me Rivera and Jim Johnson I accidently auto drafted Ortiz on the dl and got Harvey- Burnett and Samardzija and Dempster. Pitching was set. I made 348 moves and won the league.

      First time ever playing roto.

      Yes, I am a RCL Champion, a RCL Champion I am. @gareth:

    • Pops says:
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      The alternative to Zig and Zag is to go to Fantasypros.com and pick another expert or better yet last week Rudy wrote a column about expert rankings. Check that and use another pert for the rcl league, but you have to use Grey’s rankings every where else. Grey’s are the best.

      Good Luck@gareth:

    • Hawk says:
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      @gareth:

      When that happens, guys become so undervalued (i.e. Brian McCann in a one catcher league) that they are worth the pick and even become valuable.

    • Big Al says:
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      @gareth: It’s obvious, we need Razzball mock drafts.

      • Sherm says:
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        @Big Al: Agree. In one of my ESPN mock drafts this weekend I got Miggy (2), Longoria (11), Bautista (14), and Puig (19) in my first four rounds (parens= Gray’s rankings). Fun, but unrealistic.

  4. gareth says:
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    In defense of carpenter:

    While not a superstar, He was on top of the world when it came to second baseman last year. His 717 plate appearances were astonishing. He would turn out for EVERY game. Rainy days and Mondays NEVER got him down. We’ve only just begun to find out how good this guy can be. For all we know he could hit more HR’s and steal more bases next year. Most lead off hitters, they long to be close to his projections. Calling occupants of interplanetary earth, this guys a stud!

    • Rabbit says:
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      @gareth: Yeah, but I hear he lost a lot of weight over the offseason.

    • NewLeaf says:
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      @gareth: I agree he’s a nice player and it looks like his average could hold. While it’s unlikely he’ll get to 126 runs scored again, he’s a virtual lock for 90+. The issue is he’s being drafted in the 5th round of 12 team leagues, while others 2nd baseman are going much later (Brandon Phillips goes in the 9th round for example). I’m not sure he’s worth it at that price.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @NewLeaf: i don’t know how that dude lost a lot of weight, he was all lean muscle to begin with.

        • Rabbit says:
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          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: My comment was actually following Gareth’s theme of Karen Carpenter references. Sure, you may find anorexia jokes in bad taste, but it’s not as bad as making a carpenter/cruxifiction joke (I’m looking at you, Greysius Albright).

  5. gareth says:
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    G3 needs a nap now.

  6. Count de Monetball says:
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    Grey, that was a well written, well supported argument, and well filled with Grey humorisms and plagiarizm. Nice work!

    • Count de Monetball says:
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      @Count de Monetball: That being said, with Dempster taking the year off, does that raise Carpenter in the rankings?

  7. bossmanjunior says:
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    Definitely worth mentioning that the Cardinals set the modern day record for team RISP last year with .330. All but one hitter with at least 50 AB had a RISP of at least .297 last season. Yeahhhh don’t see that happening again.

  8. bossmanjunior says:
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    Few questions pertaining to a shallow H2H 10 team money league im in (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3OF, UTL)

    1) How would your draft strategy change for a league this shallow? I’ve been taking the first pitcher in the 7th (Gio/Latos/Cole), and two more in the next three rounds.

    2) Would you be comfortable taking Cole as your first pitcher in the 7th over Gio and Latos (similar ADP) if you knew you could get guys like Bailey, Cobb, etc in the next couple of rounds?

    3) Having plugged my most common mock draft results into the war room, my team seems to come up a bit short on steals and runs but just over the 100% threshold for the other three cats. With this in mind, would you draft Marte over Myers or just stick with the rankings?

    Ex: C Ramos/ 1B Encarnacion/2B Gyorko/SS Segura/3B Longoria/OF Jones/OF Rios/OF Myers/UTL Rizzo

    Thank you sir!

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        @Grey:

        Not to pick nits, but what is your suggestion for my third question? Take Myers, the better overall player, or take Marte, possibly a better fit for team needs? Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Marte

          • bossmanjunior says:
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            @Grey:

            Thanks Hombre!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              De nada

              • bossmanjunior says:
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                @Grey:

                You need to work some Italian in there….Prego!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Spumoni!

  9. Matt says:
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    Hi Grey, quick trade question:
    12 team keeper HTH (keep 14, 6 OF spots)

    My Wil Myers for
    Nolan Arenado and Julio Teheran

    Myers is my 3rd or 4th OF keeper (mccutch, Stanton, kemp, Tavaras) so I feel like it will be easier to replace him via draft than get a young 3b. Also I have iwamura to replace and could use a good pitcher. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Matt: Sounds fair for your team

  10. c0wfunk says:
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    Love how you slyly switched to Crapenter at the end there. Nicely done. :)

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @c0wfunk: I noticed it too. Also,the word “steamer” showed up in that area. I believe the pressure was building and Grey likely went to the bathroom immediately upon,completion of the writing.

  11. badminton criminal says:
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    Grey….10tm h2h keeper league,keep 5 for 4years.(R,H,2b,3b,HR,RBI,SB,BB,K,TB,BA,OBP,SLG
    W,L,K,CG,SV,ERA,WHIP,H,ER,HR,K/9,QS,BB
    Im keeping Fielder and Segura….

    need 3 more….Phillips,Myers,Jose Fernandez,Cole,Wheeler,Latos,Moore,Teheran,Walker and Harvey.

    I have to keep Harvey,right?

    thnks.

    • badminton criminal says:
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      @badminton criminal: forgot, I also have ShinSoo Choo.

    • EnglishMetsFan says:
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      Jo-Fer, Latos and Cole. Harvey won’t pitch this year. You don’t know what you will get next year. @badminton criminal:

  12. MattH says:
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    Nice write up. Very informative. 717 PA’s. wow.

  13. Wake Up says:
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    Hey, remember that really good Michael Bay movie? me neither…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Was there an explosion in it?

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Sky: Good stuff on QS…they look esp. bad with the pendulum swinging to the pitching side right now…
        But, on the other side of the coin…the point of playing the game is to win and if the pitcher gets a win…that means that their team won…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Haha, it’s true. I go out on a limb from time to time with friends and I say ‘whoever scores the most runs wins and that means the pitcher is awesome who wins and the pitcher who loses is terrible. It’s science’.

          I just appreciate a dividing line and QS provides it. It may be faulty but you can’t say it is or isn’t a QS based on the standards. A change to the standards would be nice but wins…ugly stupid ugliness.

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Sky: yeah I meant the QS standards look esp. bad right now…

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              @Wake Up: Oh I know. To be fair, if a sub-4 ERA is considered good then you can’t have a QS with it being a +4. That’s even before now but like you said, even more glaring.

              Wins can take a jump off a bridge and not leave a suicide note.

              • Jay says:
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                @Sky: Quick question regarding pitching in QS league…

                specifically H2H, do you put more importance on drafting SP1 and SP2s throughout?

                it seems that with the addition of this stat into scoring would make one look towards bolstering a more quality staff rather than Grey’s philosophy of waiting on pitching?

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Sky: I once tried to jump off a bridge but I didn’t have enough to pay the toll

  14. Big Money Matt says:
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    Been reading the site since December, first time commenter. I was wondering if you could provide feedback on a recent 12 team yahoo mock. I had the 8th pick:

    Castro 18
    Votto 2
    Gyorko 12
    Andrus 7
    Arenado 14
    Jones 1
    Bruce 3
    De Aza 16
    Pujols 4
    Rizzo 10

    Sanchez 6
    Grey 9
    Chapman 5
    Rosenthal 8
    Liriano 11
    Masterson 13
    Porcello 19

    Bench
    Moss 15
    B Miller 17
    J Johnson 20
    R Davis 21
    T Walker 22
    Asche 23

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big Money Matt: Looks like you got a good handle on things, I like the team, you do look a tad light on steals and too many bench bats…

  15. Wake Up says:
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    Just ran the numbers on Philly…with the addition of Burnett, the average age of their starting lineup is now 41…

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @Wake Up: just entering their prime, right?

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Mike: haha…as in…they can’t be divided into a positive? Yes!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wake Up: Haha, is that it?

  16. Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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    Carpenter is still a good option in OBP leagues. Which is what 25% of us play according to your survey.

    With his line drive rate I imagine he will hit a couple more over the fence this year.

    I can keep him for a 15th round pick. I imagine that’s ok in an OBP league even if he reverts to Crapenter?

    (After all, only one of us can draft Jedd Gyroko.)

    • tvators1 says:
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      @Jeff in Southern Indiana: I have Carpenter as one of my four keepers in H2H 16 team in the 15th rd as well……I think its a steal, Carps qualifies at 2nd and 3rd, plus look at his 2012 296 AB sample, just a little off his 2013 stats, I will take that, this yr as he quietly puts up points equal to Cano who will go in rd 1. Although, in roto re-draft, schmohawk I agree

      • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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        @tvators1:
        I’m with you, 2B seems like such a pile of crap, no wonder guys are grabbing Carpenter early.

        I feel like Phillips and Kinsler are already in age-related decline.

        Cano’s now in Seattle with a fat contract. Kipnis (and his 1/2 of a good year) and Pedroia are expensive.

        Aaron Hill is Jekyl and Hyde from year to year.

        If you don’t grab Gyorko, then what’s the plan? Maybe Altuve in the 8th or something.

        A tough position to handicap. Probably why the experts are reaching for a 2B in his prime like Carpenter (age 28).

  17. Bubba says:
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    Thank god fantasy baseball hath returned…I need an opinion since this is the first time I’m keeping players…

    2nd year Keeper, up to 5 keepers allowed, $5 tax per, Auction, H2H, 5×5…I’m keeping Goldy and Segura off the following list (with current values in parens)…which three should I keep otherwise?…

    Hitters

    * 1B Goldy ($23)
    * SS Segura ($5)

    * UT Ortiz ($5)
    * C Rosario ($6)
    * OF Trumbo ($17)
    *3B Longoria ($40)
    *OF Bautista ($40)
    *OF/1B Craig ($23)

    Pitching

    * SP Gio ($27)
    * SP Latos ($23)
    * SP Wheeler ($5)
    * SP Cashner ($8)
    * RP Perkins ($10)

    I always lean toward value/discount first…hitters over pitching…so that would mean…Rosario, Ortiz, and then Wheeler…or not. Thanks!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bubba: Ortiz, Rosario, Trumbo

  18. Mike

    Mike says:
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    His success was all because he was 27 last year.

    *resumes playing with ouija board*

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Mike: A career year with a massive drop in K% from career norm at age 27 makes me want to ask, can I come over and play with your ouija board too?

  19. milo says:
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    I play in league where Carpenter has 2B eligibility and your projections work for me.

    • tvators1 says:
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      @milo: I’m pretty sure everyone plays in a league where Carpenter has 2b eligibility

    • Eddy says:
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      @milo: it’s not so much the projections (which aren’t mind blowing), it’s where he’s being drafted. If he were there at the end of the 8th or so, I’d consider him. Not the same in the 5th round where more value can be had from other players.

  20. Cram It says:
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    Auction draft strategy question: Say you’ve decided you’ve targeted a buy low/middle round guy to be your starter at a given position like, I don’t know, Aaron Hill at 2B; projected to cost $8. Do you think it makes a difference in what the cost will end up being if you put him up for auction early?

    The concept being that everyone else will poo-poo him that early and if posted later, people might go into freak out mode that they don’t have a 2B and he could end up costing more later? Does this idea hold any water? Or is it almost impossible to quantify?

    • Eddy says:
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      @Cram It: it’s an interesting strategy.

      Sometimes that works out. Someone throws a guy like CJ Wilson in the early rounds and everyone is like “OK?” And he goes for $1, $2. They got a pitcher for cheap. Other times it backfires.

      It’s best to sometimes test that with a mock draft. One “problem” is that it’ll always says how much a player averages, so if I see someone is getting a player way to cheap, I’ll bid once or twice to make him pay the extra dollar.

      • Cram It says:
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        @Eddy: I’ve done a bunch of mocks already, but it’s way too tough to test that theory there, because there are always autodrafters that bet the avg value no matter who the player is.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Depends on how warm the room is to your player. The guys you really want or at least targeting, it’s rare throwing them out early nets you a reasonable return. Too much money on the table still.

    • Wake Up says:
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      @Cram It: yeah depends on the room…
      I’d lean towards early in general though if you want him…if he goes too high…you have time to look elsewhere…

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I spend most of my draft throwing out guys I don’t want until it starts getting down to $1 bids being able to win the pot unless I see a spot where others might feel poor. It’s also always good to remind yourself you’re not hemmed in to one guy. You may want Aaron Hill but if he goes for over his value, have some others circled that you’d like. Maybe not as much as Hill, of course, but still…

        • Cram It says:
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          @Sky: Yeah I never throw a guy out there that I actually want. Naturally, I have a backup plan everywhere. But like a mad scientist, I’ve created my dream team on a $260 budget and I’m trying not to have the value guys I really want get overpriced. I guess it’s impossible to tell until you’re in the room. I remember last year, one guy realized he was going to have a lot of cash left over so he started outbidding everyone easily on what should have been $1 guys.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            auction drafts are definitely not for the drunkards. Clear mind from round 1 to round end. It makes it hard for me to want to join them but I’ll be sober for the right reasons.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            and by that I’m saying your friend was passed out drunk and woke up late.

            • Cram It says:
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              @Sky: Truth. Shit takes mad focus and there are no breaks.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Agreed. Yet I love it just the same. Easily my favorite way. Just hard to get people with enough time to do one together sometimes.

                • Cram It says:
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                  @Sky: It is longer too, but I much prefer it over snake. Last year was the first time our big money league switched over to auction and my Jew-ass, totally flubbed the draft.

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    hahaha. Yeah when doing money leagues, auction makes a lot more sense. That way no one can complain they got screwed because they got stuck at ‘x’ position of the draft or whatever. It’s a level playing field.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: Auction drafts = the longest day of my life. Those are more a test of alertness than anything else.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      They also give you a shot at every player and not just the round values. I love them personally. Just always hard for 10+ people to find time to do them

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: 6 hours I will never get back. I didn’t ind them, but i missed on guys when I had to go dump my piss bucket

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      You definitely need to clear out your bowels and your bladder before saddling up for one. Still, best way to get true value out of your draft. Great experience.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: Think it’s hard to say… Some drafts work like that, others work that everyone still has money early and drafts up a player…

      • Cram It says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, I guess that’s the bottom line. You just don’t know ’til ya know.

    • Paul says:
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      The risk with a buy-low late round guy is that somebody else likes him and you have to overpay or take the dregs of the auction.

      If your strategy is to get anybody cheap for this position, or if you trust yourself to spot value early in the draft and let the buy-low guy go, then throw him out whenever you want.

      If, though, you’re really tied to him, I’d get him out there early. Find out if you’re the only one who loves him or not. If you get him cheap, awesome. If he goes way over cost, you probably weren’t getting him cheap anyways, and now you can keep your eyes open for the rest of the position. It feels like a loss when ‘your guy’ goes to somebody else, but if they overpaid that’s really a win.

  21. joeg414 says:
    (link)

    First round pick: Tulo,Cano or Hanley? Who would you pick? Please rate.
    13 Team mixed 6×6 roto.

    • Eddy says:
      (link)

      @joeg414:
      Cano. Grey has his at #6. Hanley is at #16, Tulo at #22.

  22. G Money says:
    (link)

    Grey your killing me! Couldn’t have waited a week or something…. Before I get lambasted I have Cargo as my franchise player along with 3 other keepers. I agree on the over hype but I just traded McCutchen $38 for Carpenter and he’s only $1 keeper in our 7×7 (obp,hits) aucton league ($260 budget 26 spots). I feel like for a buck it eliminates all risk for him and frees up money for me to go spend on another over $30 guy and now I’ll have 1 stud and 1 good player for same price or less than the dreaded pirate. If he does 75% of last years numbers on runs hes worth it. Also hes been a steady obp guy through the years in minors and now mlb so at least he wont hurt me there. I get it though, dont draft him where the other guys have him ranked cause he wont live up to that ranking. Still stings to see the guy I trade for get a schmohawk post morning after. I feel like this guy. What just happened? did I get fucked?…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaMOC35DXYg

    -G Money-

    • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
      (link)

      @G Money: Solid trade to me depending on who you can get for $37.

      • G Money says:
        (link)

        @Jeff in Southern Indiana: That’s kind of how I felt. Also I forgot to include he threw in RA Dickey for $6 too which is probably close to his value in our league on open market but I’m high on him so I’m biased, not high like cy young again, but a solid #3 for fantasy. Look I love Mcuctchen. hes my 2nd fav player to watch behind Cargo (when hes not hurt) but i feel like the #1 goal in any auction draft is Value. plain and simple. get a guy for under MY assessed value and you’ll have more money to burn in other areas or you’ll be holding all the cards when everyone has overpaid for guys late in draft and you can scoop up cheap pitchers and solid contributors for $5-13. As for who is available in our league over $30? here is a quick list of non keeper guys ..wright,beltre,longo,c davis, jumpton,joey bats,bruce,pujols,agon along with 6 of top 10 pitchers but i wont be bidding on them. I think I’d target bruce, joey bats, pujols with that extra money. Since I stream 4-5 SP’s a week (we start 6 now) I plan on committing to a $200/$60 or a $210/$50 strategy on draft day and I am already keeping greinke$18 and dickey$6. Thoughts, advice always welcome, unless its JayRight Im competing with him in an RCL this year! jk Jay and I see eye2eye on a lot of guys, like the Dickster!

        -G Money-

  23. Jeff P says:
    (link)

    Yesterday I had my first ever auction draft (regular yahoo setup, pro league).
    I went in with a plan in mind and stuck to it. The plan was ‘Do what Grey says.”
    How does it look? (I didn’t get any closers, because 28 of them went for $7 or above).

    1B Michael Cuddyer (Col – 1B,OF) $9
    2B Ian Kinsler (Det – 2B) $19
    SS José Reyes (Tor – SS) $19
    3B Evan Longoria (TB – 3B) $27
    OF Matt Holliday (StL – OF) $24
    OF Shin-Soo Choo (Tex – OF) $28
    OF Wil Myers (TB – OF) $23
    UTIL Alex Gordon (KC – OF) $16
    UTIL Alfonso Soriano (NYY – OF) $4
    BN Brandon Moss (Oak – 1B,OF) $2
    BN Justin Morneau (Col – 1B) $2
    BN Brad Miller (Sea – 2B,SS) $3

    SP Michael Wacha (StL – SP,RP) $15
    SP José Fernández (Mia – SP) $27
    RP LaTroy Hawkins (Col – RP) $3
    RP Chad Qualls (Hou – RP) $3
    P Homer Bailey (Cin – SP) $12
    P Julio Teherán (Atl – SP) $9
    P Doug Fister (Was – SP) $5
    P Hiroki Kuroda (NYY – SP) $3
    BN Chris Archer (TB – SP) $3
    BN Brandon Beachy (Atl – SP) $3

    • MattH says:
      (link)

      @Jeff P: Brandon moss for $2. nice.

    • Spammer Jay says:
      (link)

      @Jeff P: no catcher league? love that. I think you got screwed on your OF’s and I’m guessing that screwed your 1st base situation. you need all of longo, jojo and jofer to come through big and not screw you… or your kindof screwed.

  24. Johnny says:
    (link)

    How does this ranking change in OPS leagues? Carpenter has put up solid OPS numbers two years running now. Thanks for the help.

  25. Even though Grey has a pathological, destructive disdain for 2Bs who aren’t fast or have 20 HR power (Carpenter, Neil Walker, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, sometimes Kendrick), I agree w/ Grey that Carpenter is overrated in drafts this year. Not a big fan of NL leadoff hitters because it’s a brutal spot for RBIs. I don’t think Carpenter will be worth much if anything more than the guys in the above parenthetical.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      So Rudy, you think Dustin Ackley can turn in a Neil Walker-type year?

      • nope. have no faith in ackley at this point. just draft neil walker!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Rudy Gamble: Because Tommy Herr dissed me as a kid…

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Damn Herr and his fancy golden locks of majestic sunshine. He’s like the greatest American hero with a glove

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          HA! Why isn’t that the only show repeated from my youth?

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I think you meant not repeated?…..if so, that and the Fall Guy. A hot blonde and the six million dollar man with a sweet name….. Colt Seaver……Am I right?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Fall Guy wasn’t based in reality enough for me, was more of a Greatest American Hero guy or ALF

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: ALF? a cat eating jew from space? i loved it. I loved how real it was, like Out of this World, a hot half alien….ggrrrrr!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Like Small Wonder but with a believable alien rather than a believable robot…

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: exactly, definitely middle school chubby material.

  26. RotisserieJediMaster says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    I’m not a frequent commenter so I’ll take this opportunity to thank you and the boys for the great work. I appreciate the analysis, but there’s no question the humor and puns are a big part of the draw. Now I’m going to blow your mind by staying on point!

    Thank you for proving that I’m not crazy! I’ve been doing draft prep for over a month and for the life of me, I had not been able to figure out why Carpenter is ranked so high. Right now, he’s ranked #68 overall by both fantasypros as well as your friends at espn. But at espn, he is also ranked ahead of Holliday, Pence, Myers, Werth, and Beltran?!

    Look, even my own razzball-independent analysis says that there’s no way he should be ranked ahead of any of those players. But I like this piece because at #68 overall, Carpenter could be an expensive mistake for us, so you are really doing a public service to fantasy managers by exposing this ranking-hype trap (RHT).

    Keep up the good work!

  27. Goose says:
    (link)

    I was able to keep Carpenter as a 14th round pick since I drafted him in the 17th in 2013 (my league is non-auction). Felt like such a boss (also got Pence in the 11th last year).

    • Goose says:
      (link)

      @Goose: Hey, who is this impostor Goose?

      THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE.

  28. Daveastation says:
    (link)

    We keep 10 in a 12-team H2H league

    I got EE, Freeman, Beltre, Pedroia, A. Rios, Hamels, J. Zimmermann, Teheran, Sonny Gray and one from this bunch: Zobrist, Yaddy Molina, D. Brown.

    I was leaning with Yaddy (might not get him back-bunch of Cards fans in my league lol) but I’m wondering about positional scarcity in terms of Zobrist. He is a consensus top 10 at SS and 2B and also gives me RF depth. I think it may make more sense to keep him over Yaddy given that catcher has become deep over the past year or two. I threw in Brown because he has to at least be considered but I have questions about how legit he is. Thoughts??

  29. costaricanchata says:
    (link)

    @ Sky :

    yesterday , you and the boys engaged in a conversation about texas .
    had i been feeling better , i would have posted this link to that thread :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xjGgiDloRg

    also , btw ,
    you are absolutely correct … 7.0 innings /3 runs or less = quality start .
    (let’s put an end to mediocrity !)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Ha, nice! Yeah, I’ve always scratch my head at a 4.50 ERA being a QS. I’ll take that 6/2 and that’s fine but that is silly. I’m waiting for JFOH to start the website petition.

      • MattTruss223 says:
        (link)

        @Sky: I’m in! I’ve been beating the 7IP/3ER QS drum for awhile now. 4.50 ERA isn’t a good thing!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          and I’d still also like 6IP/2ER to be a QS as well. One of the funniest things I’ve found about QS with the way its set up? 6IP/3ER is a 4.50 ERA and is a QS. But 8IP/4ER is not as good? Two more innings of similar work, gives rest to the bullpen…c’mon QS, get it together!

          • MattTruss223 says:
            (link)

            @Sky: Haha, never even though of that angle, that’s too funny! Don’t keep doing what you’ve been doing or it’ll go from good to bad!

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @MattTruss223: I like the sliding scale. As Sy pointed out the other day that a pitcher can get a win by going 5 innings and not a QS…WTF…am I right?@Sky:

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              You’re right. I’d be happy with 5 IP/2 ER getting a QS but that I wouldn’t lobby as hard for. Just tightening up the 2 ER at 6 IP and 3 or less beyond that would make me happy.

  30. Club House Guy says:
    (link)

    I just did a trade in my keeper league traded away Carlos Gonzalez and Jean Segura for Andrew mccutchen and Manny Machado. I can only keep five players I’ve got 3 spots left and four players to choose from dustin pedroia, xander bogaerts,jason heyward,giancarlo stanton. I’m thinking About not keeping Pedroia and going with Bogaerts? Any thoughts on these would be appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pedroia, Stanton, Heyward

  31. The Flayed Man says:
    (link)

    12 team yahoo roto 5×5. 3OF no MI, CI or IF. Went a bit heavy on pitching because of the light hitting lineup. Am I way too SB light? I could cut Asche or a MR for some speed on waivers. Thanks.

    Iron Tusk
    1. (9) Ádám Jones (Bal – OF)
    2. (16) Prince Fielder (Tex – 1B)
    3. (33) Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    4. (40) Jean Segura (Mil – SS)
    5. (57) Wil Myers (TB – OF)
    6. (64) Alex Cobb (TB – SP)
    7. (81) Josh Donaldson (Oak – 3B)
    8. (88) Homer Bailey (Cin – SP)
    9. (105) Julio Teherán (Atl – SP)
    10. (112) David Robertson (NYY – RP)
    11. (129) Casey Janssen (Tor – RP)
    12. (136) Jedd Gyorko (SD – 2B,3B)
    13. (153) Salvador Pérez (KC – C)
    14. (160) Sonny Gray (Oak – SP)
    15. (177) Brandon Belt (SF – 1B)
    16. (184) Brad Miller (Sea – 2B,SS)
    17. (201) Nolan Arenado (Col – 3B)
    18. (208) Rick Porcello (Det – SP)
    19. (225) Chris Tillman (Bal – SP)
    20. (232) Drew Smyly (Det – RP)
    21. (249) Mark Melancon (Pit – RP)
    22. (256) Tanner Scheppers (Tex – RP)
    23. (273) Cody Asche (Phi – 3B)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You’re fine for right now, don’t cut Asche yet… Real nice pitching…

      • The Flayed Man says:
        (link)

        Thanks. Would you cut anyone (Melancon) for Avisail Garcia.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

  32. @grey Awesome writing. This is my first year on Razz and I check it every day. Thank you

    Auction question for you and anybody else: Would you take Chris Davis and two $1 guys, or Ortiz, J.Abreu, and Cobb?

    Thanks again

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks for the kind words! Davis and two $1 guys…

  33. Principle Blackman says:
    (link)

    Does news of Latos’s torn meniscus/surgery to repair it throw up any red flags? I know he’s on’t expected to miss a week or two, but will you be dropping him in your rankings at all as a result?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not dropping him yet, but I am watching him closely…

      • SteveNZ says:
        (link)

        @Wake Up: Perhaps he can have Tommknee John surgery.

        • Wake Up says:
          (link)

          @SteveNZ: Ha!

  34. Scooterboy says:
    (link)

    I’m not a regular here, and sort of still a novice at fantasy b-ball, but feel this site is the best out there, so I hope these aren’t a couple of stupid questions. After reading a lot of Greys posts, I get the feeling that offense is gonna be way down this year, and seems to be an emphasis on getting a first baseman , and two outfielders rather quickly in the draft. Would that be the best way to use my first three picks? And also, I know Grey doesn’t like taking pitchers early, which I agree with, but when I look at the top 400 rankings and see Kershaw at 21, does that mean that Grey would take him there if he’s available? Which he won’t be. But are all the pitchers rated where you would draft them, if they are available at those spots? Thanks, for the input. Love your rankings. Helped me win my league last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks for the kind words! I’d take Kershaw at 21, he won’t be there though… I go over what I’m taking where in this post:

      http://razzball.com/top-100-2014-fantasy-baseball/

      A 1st baseman and outfielder would work in the first few rounds…

    • Prez!! says:
      (link)

      @Scooterboy: there are no stupid questions here. Just stupid hair cuts.

  35. costaricanchata says:
    (link)

    yesterday , someone commented that manny machado
    had “X” amount of doubles and that it was to be expected that
    a mentionable portion of those doubles would turn into
    home runs in 2014 .

    well , as someone who watched a lot of O ‘s games last year ,
    i have to disagree .
    what i saw was a LOT of singles that manny turned into doubles
    through hustle and determination .

    cust kayin’ .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      His line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates look like you’re right…

      • costaricanchata says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        thanks for verifying my “observations” .

        i have a couple of bad haircuts to ask you :
        a) where do you find ground-ball and fly-ball rates ?
        b) cbs provides the following pitcher stats :
        GO/AO and MB9
        what the heck do they mean ?

        thanking you , in advance .

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          MB9 — baserunners per 9, Ground Outs / Fly Outs Ratio… GB and FB rates at Fangraphs

          • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
            (link)

            @Grey: it still probably means he’s a good baserunner and will continue to get a lot of doubles, but not the kind of doubles that turn into homers. votto did the reverse of this, a lot of homers that turned into even more doubles.

    • Prez!! says:
      (link)

      Never understood that theory… Doubles can easily be a grounder down the chalk or a squibber to a gap. A double isnt always a hard hit ball off the wall. So because a guy is roping balls down the line (even grounders), that means hes due for homers? Doesnt make much sense to me.

  36. Carns says:
    (link)

    No dongs, no steals, no interest.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha

  37. SteveV says:
    (link)

    What’s your accessment if my pitchers looked like below. 12 team Yahoo h2h. I will play weekly at leaset 7 starters. Do you think this is too much upside play?

    1-Latos
    2-Cobb
    3-Wacha
    4-Cingrani
    5-Gray
    6-Masterson
    7-Tillman

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like it, don’t think it’s too much upside…

    • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
      (link)

      @SteveV: Cingrani and Gray are both one (or at the most two pitch) guys.

      Pretty risky if hitters start figuring it out as they have no secondary stuff to fall back on.

  38. AJ says:
    (link)

    “If the guys in front of him can’t get on base, he won’t drive in anyone without hitting a home run, something he only did 11 times last year”

    Didn’t the 8 and 9 hitters, usually Descalso (spelling?) and a pitcher, provide about as little offense as humanly possible in 2013? And yet Carp ended up with an insane 78 RBI for a lead off hitter? I’m not saying your argument of him being overrated doesn’t have legs, but this just seems like something worth mentioning despite your above quote. The runs will undoubtedly fall, as anyone would be stupid to guarantee another 120+ season. But if it’s Bourjos getting on base (assuming he ever gets on, lol) instead of Descalso, wouldn’t it be reasonable to assume the already solid RBI #s go up? Carp is absolutely on fire when there’s anyone on base or in scoring position.

    I may just be looking for ways to justify my recent acquisition (I gave up Starlin Castro, Kazmir and Todd Frazier for Carp and Almora – mainly because I have 3 starter worthy SS and nothing at 2B) but leading the major leagues in runs, hits and doubles seems to justify a bit of high praise. But I get what you’re saying – in fantasy none of thst matters much. It’s actually kind of sad since his 2013 season is pretty much perfect for what you want from a player in real life – but translated to fantasy, it’s merely decent.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like that trade for you, but don’t think his RBIs will go up…

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: he also wasn’t lead off all year, and more importantly the out of wack numbers for him and craig when guys were on base is not repeatable.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

  39. frankgrimes says:
    (link)

    would you keep Bruce even tho in H2H its -1 for Ks?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Depends on options…Grimey!

      • frankgrimes says:
        (link)

        @Grey: options aren’t great…Either JUp, Rizzo, both Zimmerman(n)s, Cain, Cobb, Minor, Castro (none seem worthy)
        I traded Felix for Adam jones so I have Aushizz, Jones, Cole and ???

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’d go Bruce

          • frankgrimes says:
            (link)

            @Grey: would you try to acquire JoFer? if dude would trade him for a 2nd rounder which is sorta 6ish after keepers? or just roll with Bruce…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Try to trade for Jo-Fer…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  You had me at custard!

                • J-FOH says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey:@frankgrimes: this is the best all day custard flavor I have had. http://www.vapebrewery.com/?p=24

                  I know the owner of the company and this guy spends months perfecting his flavors and this one is hands donw on of the best desert flavors. It’s like he took cannoli filling and turned it into a vape flavor. This should appeal to your pizza side grey

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    I’d be interested in trying it, but I gotta say dessert flavors go wrong much more than than they go right… And chocolate — bleh…

                    • Prez!! says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: a-greed. Fruit, or you get the boot.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, tough for anything else sweet

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: you know how I feel about dessert flavors too. Or you should. Its ridiculous. Not overly sweet either

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I’m actually vaping Papi Churro right now and it’s wonderful…

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: Papi Churro is the gift that keeps on giving….did I give you that one?

                      Did you ever try that tank I gave you, it’s perfect for your constant flavorbating

  40. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    have to say that the pre-checked box below is a little grimey…went to say hey to JB and now I’m getting basketball words sent to me on the daily…have no idea what they mean (if they mean anything at all) my first instinct was to go up to the roof and check on the….nevermind, I talked myself down…but you never know about “them”…..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It’s not pre-checked anymore… We removed that…

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Grey: To your credit.
        was probably my fault for venturing over to places that I didn’t belong…everyone was a lot taller over there, and now my neck hurts…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Mm-mmm

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I didn’t know where anything was…and all I could smell was mushrooms…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Were you in the produce aisle at Whole Foods?

              • Wake Up says:
                (link)

                @Grey: I was at Razzball Basketball…but now that you mention it…it did have an organic feel…another question…aren’t Jones, Longo, and CarGo 28 and Davis will be 28 for the whole season?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I think so, same age as Dakota Fanning in 9 years…

                  • Wake Up says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Wow! You’re old.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Well, yeah!

    • frankgrimes says:
      (link)

      @Wake Up: got me too

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @frankgrimes: dahhh…

  41. Wingand Aprayer says:
    (link)

    “…717 plate appearances. That’s more PAs than Michael Bay had on his last film.”

    HA! Movie humor.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hehe

  42. SteveV says:
    (link)

    Is it just me or in the past didn’t it seem like you could find cheap 30 SB guys late? Now I see 20 SB guys late.

    • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
      (link)

      @SteveV: How many of them are full time guys and not in a platoon?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, lots of 20 SBs guys instead of 30 SBs guys…

  43. Ryan says:
    (link)

    Playin in a 15 man Nfbc for the first time how long should I wait to draft a SP? I managed to pick up Harper and fielder at the turn so far. I’ve never played in a league this deep before, but ive been looking for a bigger challenge this yr…we pick 50 players with no add drops.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Around pick 50 overall you should start considering a SP…

  44. WorldsFirstAnalrapists says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,
    1st post of the year, great stuff as usual and thanks for the phenomenal rankings. Sorry that it’s a long one.

    I joined a new league that is very competitive and extremely limited in moves. We have $100 budget for all of our moves, which include activating a reserve ($3) and adding a FA (min $5). We also only have 1 add/drop, unless a player is DL’d, retires, or dies.

    This is going to be 18-20 team 6×6 (OBP, QS) roto auction league with an auction budget set at $250. The roster size is 12 position players (C, CIx3, MIx2, OFx4, UTILx2) and 8 pitchers. There is a snake draft of 6 reserve players at the end of the auction draft.

    What would be your strategy for this draft? So far this is what I have:
    -Targeting players with the best value, spending no more than $30 on any player
    -Targeting 3 solid 1B, 4 solid OF, spending almost nothing on C and MI, and grabbing 2 position flexible guys for my UTIL. Drafting one bat in the reserve draft.
    -Spending no more than $15 on any SP, but trying to finish the draft with most innings pitched. Maybe drafting 5 SP in the reserve draft.
    -Hopefully drafting 3 solid closers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! I agree with your points except 3 solid closers seems like a bit much with QS… I’d go 2 at most and take an extra SP… It’s a deep league, make sure you have everyday players rather than upside gambles…

  45. Ben says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey-

    All fair points re Carpenter. My league counts OBP and TBs instead of BA and HRs. He is obv way better in TBs than HRs. How would you value you him in this type of format?

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Knock him up to around 70 overall…

    • SwaggerJackers says:
      (link)

      @Ben: I was also considering pointing out he has more value in OBP leagues. Good call there.

  46. henncoop says:
    (link)

    I have a Segura question. I know you like him as a solid 4th round pick in a 12 team draft even taking him late in the 3rd round. Any concerns with a sophomore slump or the fact that his stats fell to a very average player as the season went on?
    I am definitely hoping he does well as he is a highlight on what could be another long season when attending Brewer games in person. I definitely loved this kid from the first time I watched him play. I am just hoping we are not expecting too much from a young player with a short track record. Comments?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He was playing his first long season and he got hurt in the last week… I’m not concerned…

      • henncoop says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Good enough …if I get the opportunity I want to pick him. Thanks for the response …looking forward to another fantasy season of your expertise

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  47. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    bruce chen for sogard fair enough for me if i badly need an actual starting MI? only problem is sogard is under contract for 2014 and 2015 so if he were to lose his job i’d be eating half of the 3.6 million if I wanted to drop him (which would seem the obvious decision if he became backup). Only starter currently on waivers (we have to wait till end of first week of season to try to get those) is Furcal. i’m currently starting Schumaker at 1.5 million. If I can get Furcal he’d only cost .4 mil (but i’m probably not the only one noticing Furcal is a starter that was dropped)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sure

  48. Kyle Huffman says:
    (link)

    I’m in a H2H points keeper league. My current team is as follows.
    1b NA
    2b Carpenter
    SS hAnley
    3b Donaldson
    OF McCutchen
    OF Rios
    OF Gomez
    UT Werth
    UT Werth

    Pitchers are Lee, latos, Minor, Sanchez, uehara

    I was presented with a trade that would be me getting Kershaw and Matt Adams for McCutchen. Do you that is a good idea? And if so I have the next pick of the draft where I am considering Soriano,Billy Hamilton, belt or Napoli all depending on wether or not I do this trade. What advice and approach would you take?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Take Hamilton

  49. Boomer19 says:
    (link)

    The guy with the second draft position in our 13 team 5×5 roto keeper offered to trade drafting spots with me ( I am drafting last). I would normally take it immediately as McCutcheon would be available. Problem is I am keeping four outfielders already (I know…not ideal as we only have six keepers total). There will be good players available at the turn (probably fielder, tulo, longoria) so it is a tough call. Is it always best to take the higher draft position? Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You can’t draft who you want with the higher draft pick? Just draft Fielder…

  50. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    was about to Ok the sogard deal when i checked at mlbdepthcharts.com and find out sogard is listed in triple AAA and Callaspo is listed as starting 2B at OAK? You buying (or even heard) of this? Or is it just a short term thing.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Will depend on spring training

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: so probably should wait to see on that. I can also get a third rounder for chen.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Take the 3rd rounder

  51. Ra'zball Al Ghul says:
    (link)

    Baseball America’s fantasy mag has Matt Carpenter ranked 13TH OVERALL for 2014 Fantasy baseballing… Goldschmidt is 12th, Votto is 14th… … … … oops!

    13th Overall for what exactly? Being in a prolific lineup??

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I didn’t know people still made magazines…

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: 13th! Jesus.

  52. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    guy who outbid me on carlos torres (he gave him 3.5 mil each year for 3 years) now is willing to move him to me for a third round pick. If this was one year i’d do this immediately, but do you see him having at least long relief status over 3 years? I know his ability to get actual starts will be going away with Harvey and Syndergaard around next year, in addition to Gee/Niese/Wheeler. His real life contract with NYM seems to be a long one (arb eligible), up to 2019.

  53. TobiasFunkeAnalRapist says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, awesome read. 12 team h2h keeper 6×6 league, getting mad offers for my Cutch. My most recent is David Price and Beltre for my Cutch, I currently have no pitching I will be keeping but I’ve got Arenado(minor league roster), and Ryan Zimmerman (might be keeping) and keeping this guys for sure: Trout, Cutch(if I don’t trade him), Segura and Goldy. I appreciate any input, thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Hold

  54. Hoog says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, I have a keeper question for you. I’m in a h2h league that counts R/HR/RBI/AVG/ SLG/BB/NSB. I have Joey Votto under team control for the next 4 years, but a guy in my league has to get rid of both Jay Bruce & E5.

    He wants to do a deal with my Votto & Granderson for his E5 & Bruce, but wants me to add something into the mix. I know you have Bruce as a top 20 in roto, but where would you put him in a H2H league? And how much of a piece do you think it would be worth to make this deal? My OF looks like A. Jones, Marte, Jennings, Granderson for 3 spots.

    My thought is my Votto, Granderson, and Garza for his E5, Bruce, J. Johnson. That worth pulling the trigger on? Thanks over the internet friend!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Bruce and Edwin for Votto…

  55. Steve d says:
    (link)

    In one league I have an insane amount of internet auction dollars. Right now I have 11 keepers for a whopping $21. With $239 left, would you keep moustakas and/or Pineda at $6 each. I’m hoping you say no but both still do have upside.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Don’t keep them, but you can spend a lot on players at the draft… Go way above listed prices for players you want…

  56. Jay says:
    (link)

    Based solely on lopsided research that I performed myself i did a little mock draft for my league. it’s nothing academic or anything and based solely on your rankings, early YAHOO ADPs, and my draft picks in my league.

    if it breaks my way i could see something like this (I really hope that this works out this way):
    We draft 22 players and roster and IF, 5 BN spots
    Lucroy
    Votto – keeper
    Kipnis- Keeper
    Machado – Keeper
    Andrus
    Hill
    Stanton
    Werth
    Cuddyer
    Gyorko
    Strasburg – Keeper
    Cobb
    Random Closer #1
    Random Closer #2
    Shields
    Salazat
    Lilriano
    Masterson
    Abreu
    Gray
    Bogaerts

    wishful thinking….

    • SwaggerJackers says:
      (link)

      @Jay: Salazat is a deeeeeeeep sleeper. Isn’t he a middle reliever for the Twins AA affiliate?

      • Jay says:
        (link)

        @SwaggerJackers: it’s ok because yahoo lets you add an NA spot this season. but thanks for coming out from under your bridge to point that out.

        • SwaggerJackers says:
          (link)

          @Jay: Didn’t mean to hurt your feelings, I make typos all the time but yours just jumped out as a particularly funny one.

          To make it up to you, here’s a free fantasy team name you can use: Cobb Salad-Czar. :)

  57. Scooterboy says:
    (link)

    Did an 8 team mock draft on ESPN. Currently have 8 teams in my league. ESPN said I came in next to last with this draft. Is it really that bad a team?

    C Wilson Ramos Round 19/pick 167
    1B Albert Pujols Round 3/pick 23
    2B Aaron Hill Round 14/pick119
    3B Josh Donaldson Round 6/pick 42
    SS Juan Segura Round 4/pick 26
    CI Anthony Rizzo Round 13/Pick 106
    MI Jed Gyorko Round 17/pick 138
    OF Cargo Round 1/Pick 7
    OF Adam Jones Round 2/Pick 10
    OF Jay Bruce Round 5/Pick 39
    OF Wil Myers Round 8/Pick 58
    OF Alex Gordon Round 12/Pick 90
    U Matt Adams Round 16/Pick 135

    SP Homer Bailey Round 7/Pick 55
    SP Gio Gonzalez Round 9/Pick 71
    SP Alex Cobb Round 10/Pick 74
    SP Gerrit Cole Round 11/Pick 87
    SP Julio Teheran Round 15/Pick 122
    SP Sonny Gray Round 17/Pick 151
    RP Trever Rosenthal Round 12/Pick 103
    RP Rafael Soriano Round 18/Pick 154
    RP Houston Street Round 20/Pick 170
    RP Fernando Rodney Round 21/Pick 183

    I guess the Pujols pick brought my totals down a little on ESPN, since they have him so low. I thought pujols at the 23rd pick was ok. Freeman is rated higher on their site, but I went with Pujols instead.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Team doesn’t look as bad as they say… My team was supposedly a next to last team last year and I won the league with it…

  58. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    I just learned that February is national pet dental health month.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Wow, Oaktown…you need a better medical insurance provider.

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Sky:

        Can you parse that insult for me? Didn’t make much sense. What’s the implication? Yes I feel the sting but I need to know why!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Hahaha, if you break down the joke it’s never as funny. Let’s just say it was and be done with it.

          I’m familiar because my dog Waldo is getting a discounted cleaning at a local vet. But I couldn’t help but snark. It’s in my nature.

          • gareth says:
            (link)

            @Sky: I read the joke as Oaktown not being able to afford US dental prices, so was exited that they had deals on pet dental services he could take advantage of. Like that stereotype in movies of the bad guy who gets shot and its ALWAYS a veterinary clinic he sees, and then goes in and holds a vet hostage to sew up his wounds while dogs bark in the background.

            • OaktownSteve says:
              (link)

              @gareth:

              I was recently forced out of my pet insurance policy and ended up with something bizarre called Blue Shield. Thanks Obamacare.

              • gareth says:
                (link)

                @OaktownSteve: whats the difference between Grey’s doctor and Grey’s vet?

                Grey’s doctor treats the Hairier patient! (He’s been known on occasion to have a little trouble getting his stethoscope through all that “tom selleck” chest hair).

                • goodfold2 says:
                  (link)

                  @gareth: hey, Gareth, just how many movies have you seen like that.

                  • gareth says:
                    (link)

                    @goodfold2: off the top of my head – the getaway (remake) and there’s a Dexter episode in the final season that has that (not technically a movie I know).

                    • goodfold2 says:
                      (link)

                      @gareth: inglourious bastards had it too, (but it was the good guys)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I think he’s saying you’re taking it too literally when you heard you have canine teeth…

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Mine are actually ovine True story. I also just learned that February is National Prevent a Litter Spay and Neuter month, so by Sky’s reckoning, I should be pretty nervous.

        • OaktownSteve says:
          (link)

          @OaktownSteve:

          It’s also national adopt a rescued rabbit month, though maybe when I read about that one I was on Jack Handy’s website.

          It’s also national deaf history month, though I don’t think everybody has heard about it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, you need to stop going to that doctor before you’re OaktownSusan…

  59. gareth says:
    (link)

    Looks like the Orioles are about to land ubaldo jiminez for 4 years, 48 million. If he passes his medical of course………

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Damn, there goes Gausman…

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: i’m assuming you already had jimenez projected as starter anyway, but that does completely bounce gausman off of dumbling face spiraling down into below lottery tickets?

          • Prez says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Pitching is so deep, gausman got cut off in Feb and i still had more pitching sleepers than an NL retirement home!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Gausman got cut and was like, “I need gauze, man. Seriously, I’m not just saying my name.”

  60. gareth says:
    (link)

    12 million a year for 4 years of ubaldo.

    Solid deal, risky or a bargain?

    How does pitching in Camden affect his fantasy value?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Could lend itself to a few more unwanted homers for Ubaldo…

      • SwaggerJackers says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I think this is a bad move for the O’s. Ubaldo’s WHIP is a disaster and he tends to get stuck in his head trying to figure it out.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, could be… Should also could given them 200 IP and a 3.90 ERA, which is decent in real baseball…

  61. Hans says:
    (link)

    Grey-Amazing stuff.. You took me to a rookie season championship last year! Thanks. I know it is difficult based upon different scoring systems, but will you have any articles or write-ups on strictly year long points leagues?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem… Points leagues posts are coming with Tehol… Think his first post is tomorrow…

  62. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    trying to move chen to a guy for 3rd round pick. he’s worried about not having enough starting OF’ers. meanwhile i’m reading my Legares might not start at NYM. Just in case he likes Legares worth more than his guys, how would you rank Legares/Denorfia/J.D.Martinez/Carp/Schaefer? I might be able to do Legares and Chen for 3rd round pick and one of those.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      They’re all garbage… Legares, Martinez, Denorfia

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: i know they’re all garbage, this is the 4th OF in a 30 man league. good to know i have the best one though. So no deal to him then. thanks.

  63. Mike says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,
    8 team keeper H2H points league. Was offered Price/Adam Jones/Hosmer for Votto/Clutch/Shields. My pitching is weak. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold

  64. Ed says:
    (link)

    I was going to keep Carpenter, so hoping for some more keeper advice:
    between Carpenter, Matt Adams, Taveras, Matt Moore, Gyorko, Werth.
    Who would you keep?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Gyorko

  65. Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
    (link)

    after looking at your (or maybe Rudy’s) OPS rankings, is it right that upton is 11th, with segura at 13th and marte at 14th? those are just the first 3 i noticed that seem possibly out of wack.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      They’re Rudy’s by way of Steamer’s… You should ask him on the actual OPS page, he’ll see it…

    • yeah, it looks right. you can see those players’ value is highly tied to SBs which only because scarcer when you add OPS as a category. the $ are based on the impact a player would have on an ‘average’ team. so my M.O. in 5×5 is typically to draft enough SB to be average so I’m ignoring the top guy on the board if he’s SAGNOF and I don’t desperately need SBs.

  66. Damien D says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, gotta agree on Carpenter for the most part. Quick quiz though on runs:

    can you name the run scoring stud who put up the following 4 year period, and so almost passed your test 120+ runs back-to-back without juicing?

    113
    131
    94
    118

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No idea

      • Damien D says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Dale Murphy! From 1982-1985.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ah…

    • Boomer19 says:
      (link)

      Was it furcal? He had a good run.

      • Damien D says:
        (link)

        @Boomer19: very good guess.

    • Prez!! says:
      (link)

      F@Damien D: first guess was lofton. If these arent his, he had a stretch very much like the one you speak of. And we all know he wasnt juicing…

      • Damien D says:
        (link)

        @Prez!!: definitely a good guess.

  67. jjj says:
    (link)

    What pitcher from your rankings becomes your last resort f0r a #1 on your team. Ive been doing mocks and waiting on SP until 6,7,or 8 rd, leaving me with staffs starting with zimmerman / cobb or medlen as my #1 ??

  68. Andrew W says:
    (link)

    Would you rather have Rizzo or Hosmer this season?

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @Andrew W: hosmer ranked 14 overall spots and 1 total 1st base spot higher than rizzo, so it was close.

    • bossmanjunior says:
      (link)

      @Andrew W:

      For draft position, Rizzo. Hosmer looks to be going in the 5th round while Rizzo can be had in the 9th.

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @bossmanjunior: yeah 40th overall vs 74 for hosmer vs rizzo at MDC’s ADP’s right now.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hosmer

  69. gareth says:
    (link)

    Espn mock drafts are driving me nuts. Im doing the lite version on my smartphone and It will occasionally autodraft me players. I have the settings off for each draft I do, but I will sometimes go to pick a player and find that one has been chosen for me, and autodraft is now turned on. How do I fix this so this doesn’t happen in the actual draft?

    • Prez!! says:
      (link)

      @gareth: had it happen to me on the FIRST pick in one.. third pick, it went cutch. Thats the only time it happened and i did like 3 mocks.. thought it was just cuz my internet lagged getting me into the draft window. Would be pissed if it happened in a live draft.

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @gareth: dont use your phone

    • Prez says:
      (link)

      @gareth: ^^^ also true.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not sure

  70. gareth says:
    (link)

    For example I had a 1st baseman lined up ready to draft. Autodraft was off. The person immediately in front of me picked this player. I went to change my pick but my turn was bypassed. The computer had turned on autodraft and CJ Wilson had been picked for me.

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @gareth: i’ve had that shit happen in hockey drafts before, it sucks. those weren’t on phones either.

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
      (link)

      @costaricanchata: lesser fantasy (presumably) players are taking him at around 61st currently at MDC ADP’s.

      • costaricanchata says:
        (link)

        @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow:
        i linked that article to show that i plugged this site .

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
          (link)

          @costaricanchata: I wasn’t attempting to refute you, just flesh out how much he’s going for in a variety of spots seems good for us to be able to gauge.

  71. Andrew W says:
    (link)

    In an Auction Keeper league when last year players went for:
    Longoria – $37
    Votto – $38
    Billy Butler – $25
    Zobrist $24

    What price range would you draft Hosmer in this year?

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