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Allen Craig, “What’s that hot air on my neck?  It feels…humid.”  That’s Matt Adams.  The robust first baseman suffered through his worst personal month in years in November when production of Twinkies halted.  Fun Fact!  In 1999, Bill Clinton dropped a Twinkie into a time capsule that was to remain shut for 100 years.  Also, in 1999, Matt Adams dug up said time capsule, ate the Twinkie and wiped his mouth with a college letter from Bill to Hillary.  Fun fact II!  Matt Adams once misspelled his own name as Fatt Adams.  Fun Fact III!  To pay for his first car, Adams modeled for the zaftig definition illustration in the Oxford English Dictionary.  In 2011, he was named Texas League Player of the Year, but he was stuck behind Pujols.  Coincidentally, “Stuck Behind Pujols” was the Village People B-side to YMCA.  Any the hoo, Pujols got run out of town (not really, but it’s fun to say that) and Craig stepped up.  Craig has the injury history of Mr. Glass from Unbreakable.  Craig just pulled his hammy reading and reacting to that last line.  Craig could also move to the outfield, which would speed up Adams’s arrival (and would speed up Craig’s injury).  Over Adams’s career in the minor leagues, his line is .318/.365/.565 with 82 homers in 366 games. Last year, he hit 18 homers in 67 games and a .329 average, which was cut short by a call to platoon in the majors and then bone spurs in his elbow.  Since Adams eats bone spurs for breakfast (literally, I think), he’ll be ready to go this year.  So, what can we expect of Matt Adams for 2013 fantasy baseball?

He’s the best 1st baseman in the minors for fantasy.  Olt could be considered that (I just went over my Mike Olt fantasy), but he’s stuck for playing time worse than Adams and the Rangers seem more likely to platoon Olt.  Jonathan Singleton could make a case for best 1st baseman in the minors for fantasy, but he’s a year (or at least a half year) off from fantasy impact and he’s in the Astros system, and they haven’t had a top-flight prospect whose last name didn’t start with a B in 25 years.  Adams should be in the everyday lineup in the majors in April.  He won’t, though.  Bill James gave Adams a projected line of 69/27/89/.282/3.  That actually isn’t that crackers, if Adams got the 145 games and 503 ABs James is giving him.  I think Adams could actually do better with runs and average if he got 503 ABs.  I’ll go as far to say the Cards would be better with Oscar Taveras and Matt Adams over Craig and Jay.  Since we need an injury and assuming no one Gillooly’s Craig, I’ll give Adams 350 ABs and a line of 40/17/52/.293/1.  The moment it looks like Adams will be in the lineup he’ll be an immediate pickup in all leagues.

22 Responses

  1. Prezii says:
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    MOOBS!

    That is all…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Prezii, Look at who commented yesterday from their new home in Central America…

      • Prezii says:
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        @Grey, oh my geez its central chata! Haa thats awesome!! Good to hear!

  2. Pete says:
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    Grey – love these articles! I may find myself choosing between Olt and Adams in my dynasty league draft and wanted to better understand why you see Adams > Olt.

    1) Why will Olt will need a platoon partner? Olt’s OPS splits last year at AA were .960/.1020. Adams actually had a bigger split in the minors at .858/1.036.

    2) Both guys have depth chart issues – the four corner spots for the Cardinals are all pretty set with Craig, Freese, Holliday and Beltran. Isn’t it actually more likely that Olt beats out Moreland for 1B?

    3) I don’t put too much stock in top 100 lists but Adams didn’t make Keith Law’s or Baseball America’s.

    4) Olt is widely regarded as a better defender than Adams in the IF and I’ve seen reports that he’s passable in the OF

    Would appreciate your comments (and if you’d do a similar write up on Matt Harvey). Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Pete, Thanks! 1) Olt will definitely platoon next year. The Rangers aren’t going to bench Moreland, Young and Beltre in the position they are in in the division… 2) I don’t think it’s more likely… I think Freese and Craig are a hang nail away from the DL at any time… Beltran’s old too and Holliday’s getting up there… 3) This is more for 2013 fantasy, there’s guys better lower in the minors, but they’re at least a year away… Yeah, Harvey’s coming…

  3. Gumby says:
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    Got this guy in two leagues and I’m super excited about him.

    Between him and Pauly G (who I also have in both), I’m hoping to not have to look at 1B or CI for a few years.

    You think both can be top 10 1B in 2014 ?

      • jmup says:
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        @Grey, how do you see Rizzo stacking up next year vs Goldy and Adams?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Goldy’s above him… Rizzo’s much better than Adams… He has a starting job, for sure… And crazy power…

  4. Eddy says:
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    Hola, Grey!

    I’ve noticed you’re throwing some odd numbers into your 2013 stat lines. No more rounding by fives?

    WHAT CHANGED, GREY?!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eddy, Rudy decided to start comparing me to other projections providers and I don’t want to be penalized just because I rounded down from 3 on steals to give a guy zero… Etc…

  5. jmup says:
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    Why is there no love for Allen Craig? His line last year was a very solid 307/354/522 with 22HR over 514PA in just 2/3 of a season. He was one of the top producers on my team.

    I think the injury concerns are way overblown. He had a hamstring problem last May, but after coming back 1 week into June he was healthy the rest of the way. People aren’t criticizing Evan Longoria for being “fragile” (or are they?).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jmup, He always plays in only two-thirds of a season, if that… I think they should criticize Longoria after this last year…

    • Prezii says:
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      @jmup, craig is known for his hitting 7 tators in 2 weeks and being shelved for the next 3. He always helps when hes healthy, hes just never healthy for long periods of time. You just know he will get hurt, its just a matter of when and for how long.

  6. David_KOA says:
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    @Grey,
    According to CBS sports the Braves and Angels have made a trade. The Angels get Tommy Hansen and the Braves get Jordan Walden.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Damn, Hanson has fallen so far…

  7. royce! says:
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    Your old flame Tommy Hanson is heading to LA…perhaps he wants to apologize, maybe see if there’s any room left in your heart for him? I can see it now: you and him, meeting for coffee, and him storming off because you can’t stop talking about how happy you are with Medlen…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Mmmplop…. Nice trade by the Braves… They could’ve got more probably a year ago though… Medlen!

      • royce! says:
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        @Grey, They could have gotten a LOT more a year ago. Hanson was supposed to be a 1 or 2, and they just swapped him for a MR with a scary delivery. Fangraphs’ 2011 trade value list had Hanson at #23, wedged between Jay Bruce and Strasburg (whose terribly wrong ranking was based on his injury)…by mid-July, 2012, Hanson was not in the top 50. Of course, in 2011 they had Ubaldo at #25, so it’s not an exact science, but still… For fantasy, it’s nice to open up a spot in the rotation in ATL. Looks like Randy and Julio will get a shot.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, hoping Julio takes the spot… They have so many arms it’s ridiculous… Agreed on Hanson… I would’ve went after Chase Headley last year…

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    ****THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS****

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