Did they always have the plate discipline stuff? I dont typically understand it as well, but cant remember why i settled on Fangraphs base numbers versus Pitch f/x–my only thought is that it didnt use to exist?

I’m definitely going to ensure the pitch f/x and other graphs data match up in the future or just ignore it. Intuitively the fangraphs data makes sense, but that’s probably because i want it to prove my argument!

Difference is stark though, and makes me wonder which is more accurate.

I hadnt noticed the stark contrast. Thanks so much for pointing it out.

When the two sets of data are this different, it’s probably not prudent to cite either.

Yeah, for whatever reason Tex is just trying to crush the ball all the time. Whether it’s pressure or just he likes hitting homers, who knows?

Re: Roberts, I figured it was a getaway pick. Just wanted it noted for the record. Mostly i’m just annoyed the Orioles utterly failed to trade him when he had value.

@ Albert

At the point of drafting Roberts I was just ready to be done with it and needed a CI and none were available. I agree with you though that power is really the only issue I see with that draft. Not a bad first one to shake off the rust.

Yeah, i could see an average from .245-.285 and i wouldnt be shocked. I’d take under .265 though. I’m a fan of his, being a local boy, and the power is nice, but its a shame that he went from being a consistent .300 or so hitter to all HRs all the time.

I think Tex is certainly capable of hitting the ball the other way, but I don’t know if the Yankees want him to do that. He seems to have become an all-or-nothing hitter: HR, walk, or out. I see both upside and downside to a .265 average.

Like the draft, soe good combo players (McCutch, Pence, Phillips, Victorino, etc). Michael Young is also solid (as much as I dislike how the media covers him).

I might like a few more power, and counting on brian roberts probably wont work out. Seems solid…

@Grey et al.:

Just completed first mock draft of the season. Thoughts? Comments?

Roto 5×5 – 10 Team – Snake Pick #9
(2 Cs, 5 OF, 1 UTIL, 1 CI, 1 MI, 9 P)

9. Votto (1B)
11. Longoria (3B)
29. McCutchen (OF1)
31. Weaver (P1)
49. Pence (OF2)
51. Phillips (2B)
69. Victorino (OF3)
71. C.J. Wilson (P2)
89. M. Baumgardner (P3)
91. M. Young (UTIL)
109. G. Gonzalez (P4)
111. M. Montero (C1)
129. J. Johnson (P5)
131. Papelbon (RP1)
149. Hellickson (P6)
151. Aybar (SS)
169. LoMo (OF4)
171. Walden (RP2)
189. J. Weeks (MI)
191. Oswalt (P7)
209. C. Rasmus (OF5)
211. R. Roberts (CI)
229. R. Martin (C2)

Konerko cant hit 40 (Tex hasnt since 2005), but Tex cant bat over .270.

We’ll have to check back in during the season and see who’s right!

While we’re talking about 2-3 rounds of difference, it’s incredibly important at the beginning of the draft. Sure if we were quibbling about someone being valued in round 15 versus 18, that’d be pointless. But you cant miss on your picks in the 2nd/3rd round. I think a lot of people see Tex as a cant miss guy, when, in reality, he isnt.

I’ll happily take Konerko over Tex any day of the week…

I dont know why grounders are the most important thing to you. The problem is Teixeira is selling out for fly balls. His GR/FB rate, while being around 1.00 for his career before NY, has never been higher than .83. The problem is that his ground balls and line drives are dissipating and he is hitting more fly balls (while not more are leaving the park).

He has hit 222 FB per year with the Yanks. It was 181 per year in the three years before he joined NY

talk about a victim of a shift, or of the inability to hit lefties….still Pena against only righties aint too bad….

when uggla hits .285 , this year , i’ll be saying it .

of course , 2 or 3 years ago , i thought carlos pena was going to hit .285

I really wish I had seen your earlier comments and flagged that article for review. it provides an even fuller picture!

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/teixeiras-amazing-disappearing-batting-average/

And it also emphasizes his increase in FB and decrease in LD, which you point out.

I agree with your .265 projection, and that it is difficult to draft so high someone you can expect such a low AVG from.

the problem is the price tag – nothing overly wrong with Teixeira. But if you’re spending a top 20 pick, you’re getting a positive in 3 categories, a nonentity in one, and a negative in one. That’s too much to pay, especially at a deep position.

Compare Dan Uggla’s last two seasons: .260, 34 Hrs, 94 runs, 94 RBIs. Tex: .252, 36 HRs, 102 runs, 110 RBIs. I dont think anyone is saying Uggla is s top 30 hitter….

Also, switch-hitting is clearly the work of the devil.

enjoyed the article
and the comments , thus far .

here’s the rub ===> it “seems” that , lately , fewer and fewer guys are
hitting 35 jacks ,
so i’ll take the average ‘hit’ …. and hope it’s minimized this year .

now , if you wanted to mention that he often has that dumb/childish
look on his face , and that he reminds me of the guy from “everybody loves
raymond” , then , hell yeah , i’ll look for a different power hitter .

Thanks, Mike. I guess I dont follow the Yankees enough to realize how crippling that shift is (although we’ve seen it with other first basemen as well). You and Royce are good to point it out.

I do wonder about the incredibly uptick in HRs and perhaps it having something to do with new Yankee Stadium. Obviously, HRs put butts in the seat, but he had such a balanced approach before. He was a 4-category star, now he’s a 3-category star, damages you in one category and does nothing in another.

I agree that the shift hurts him, especially when it comes to BABIP. I have no way of quantifying how much the shift has an impact though (i.e., how often he grounds into it).

It does remain that the more fly balls you hit (that dont leave the park), the worse your average on balls in play will be. I agree that his average will likely come up a bit, but .265 seems to be best case.

the last time he batted over .260 was his first year with the Yankees (also the last time his BABIP was over .300, his LD rate near 20% and his fly ball rate under 44%).

Good call on the shift info!

As a lefty he batted .224 last year, and .302 from the right side.

So it seems that his AVG will come up slightly in 2012, though only slightly.

So…ummm…do your worst