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I did a Google search for Chris Davis and it said, “Did you mean Superman?”  Weird!  The force is very strong in this young Texas Ranger.  Chuck Norris drives an ice cream truck covered in human skulls; Chris Davis serves the Bomb Pops.  I’m not sure if there’s anyone in all of fantasy baseball this year who has climbed further in a shorter time during this offseason.  I’ve done my own basting of the turkey with a Chris Davis sleeper post.   My fantasy hymen is broken!  In my defense, that post was published mid-December and I wrote it sometime in late-November.   When I wrote that, Davis was going after Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins in drafts — ah, those were the days — but he’s since flipped the script on them.   That makes sense, but now he seems to be shooting even further up draft sheets.  Then someone mentioned to me in our fantasy baseball forums or somewhere in the comments or somewhere on the site, I don’t know where, that they drafted Mark Reynolds and they called him a poor man’s Chris Davis.  You know what’s funny about this?  Not funny funny, but not really funny funny.  Chris Davis has never done any of this over a full season, but Mark Reynolds has, so Chris Davis should be a poor man’s Mark Reynolds, shouldn’t he?

I projected Chris Davis for 75/30/95/.275/3 and Reynolds at 75/31/100/.255/7.   To take me out of the equation, ZIPS projects Mark Reynolds for 88/28/89/.257/8 and Chris Davis for 84/33/103/.263/6.  Um, those numbers are pretty close for each player.  Both play in hitter’s parks, so there’s not much of an edge there.  Davis has shown he has a greater propensity for line drives so his average should be better than Reynolds, but those projections account for that.  Davis is a .260-.280 hitter.  Reynolds is a .240-.260 hitter.

Now if they both hit .260, they’re more or less equal.  If Davis hits .263 and Reynolds hits .250, then the impact of Chris Davis’s AVG on your team vs. Mark Reynolds is .001 (if you assume the real difference is .013 and they are one of 13 hitters on your team.)  Then you have to realize Davis’s projections carry more risk.  Point Shares has Davis and Reynolds at #49 and #126, respectively.  But why is Chris Davis’s ADP 67 in ESPN and Reynolds is being drafted at 208?

The reality is that anyone taken in lower rounds is going to hurt you somewhere.  People seem to be scared off a low average more than low HRs/RBIs.  Not sure why.  You can take a really good SP and Reynolds; say C-Bill or Beckett and Reynolds.  Or you can draft Davis and Andy Sonnanstine.  Hmm… Maybe that’s Mark Reynolds in Chuck Norris’s ice cream truck.

71 Responses

  1. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    Very interesting! Way to dump a big bucket of RazzIce down the front of me bulging Davis-pants.

    However: Why are folks so optimistic about Reynolds avg? He hit .239 last year. He strikes out all the time. In fact, he’s striking out right now as we speak. He tried to pick up a young woman at a bar last night, and struck out. He packed his bags and told his parents he was striking out on his own.

    The difference to me seems to be that, for Davis, .260 would be a foreseeable regression, while for Reynolds, .260 would be like winning the batting title. You know, as the inimitable fantasy baseball expert Ad-Rock once said, “One man’s ceiling is another man’s floor.”

    That said, the huge disparity in drafting positions just goes to show one important thing we often forget: It’s the Stats, Stupid. I sometimes think it would be useful to strip away everyone’s names and then rank all the players solely on their fantasy categories alone. No OPS, no BABIP, no flashy reputations: Just AVG, R, HR, RBI, SBs (and whatever else you use in your bastard league).

    Then we’d see that Davis and Reynolds aren’t really twelve rounds of difference. And Orlando Cabrera and Derek Jeter have been basically the same player for three years.

  2. Kevin says:
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    Davis is one of those hyped guys that you will never get value for on draft day.

  3. Mike Ketchen says:
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    Are you worried about AB’s for Davis as well? I just don’t see how he gets 500+ when you consider they have 3 catchers they are trying to show case and develop. Not to mention Andruw, Byrd needing ab’s that are going to come at a cost. Blalock also has a firm grip on DH and Smoak will be knocking on the door. Again I just dont see it and I think it hurts his value.

  4. Mowses says:
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    Chris Davis Fantasy Schmohawk 2009

    “oh no he didn’t”
    yes he did

  5. gleeksquad says:
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    my main problem with reynolds vs davis is i think reynolds is on a much shorter leash in the playing time department. With Tracy, Connor Jackson and the likes in Arizona a prolonged dry spell for Mark could send him into a shared playing time scenario. Davis seems much more likely to be given a full season. The adp’s are nuts though and for 20th round Mark is decent value… who else could go 30/100 from there?

    I personally won’t draft Davis because of where he is going. I already took advantage of the hype and traded him in my main keeper/$ league(along with hart and prince) to acquire Braun. If i somehow drafted him again it’d be to trade him to someone who’d overpay.

  6. Frank Rizzo says:
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    I’m not sure how to feel about this since I have both on my team. Reynolds was definitely cheap and may never leave my bench but he’s a great late round flier. When he gets hot, he can mash.

  7. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @gleeksquad: True that. Reynolds has playing-time issues. To go with his shizzy-batting-average issues.

    That said, My Name is Baron Von Vulturewins and I Will Draft Chris Davis in the 5th.

    There’s a funny groupthink that happens in fantasy baseball, where players try to get outsmart people with sleepers, and then they try to outsmart themselves by avoiding sleepers. If Davis manages to hit his projections — let’s say .260/30/95 — he is definitely worth a 5th or 6th round pick. If he does not — well, so what? What are you missing out on in those rounds? Brad Lidge? Derrek Lee? This ain’t the third round, people.

    I’m looking for players who can give me leaps in value. Davis can. Derrek Lee can’t. I can imagine a 2010 draft in which Chris Davis is going in the mid-3rd, along with Quentin and A-Ram. That ain’t happening to Vernon Wells.

    Value, value, value.

  8. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: BVV, you had me at Ad-Rock. “I got mad hits like I was Rod Carew”…….will Mike D and MCA be joining as well? Fantastic reference from the greatest rap group that ever hit the stage.

  9. cockyphoenix says:
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    @gleeksquad: I don’t see Tracy unseating Reynolds barring some serious problems to the KKKKKKKKKKKKing. Reynolds is only like 26 or something. Tracy is barely younger than that. Reynolds set a record last year using his bat to fan off the Arizona heat, but he put up 4 to 7 homers every month but September. Personally I find it amazing that he can strike out every 3 AB while only seeing an average of 4.2 pitches per AB… those aren’t promising numbers for the BA, but the rare enough times when he does make contact are what earn him his starting role.

    and about the .013/.001… Gotta keep in mind playing time. A catcher with a .013 difference in his batting average from your team’s will probably not even move your total a full point, because his 350 AB’s have about 55% the impact that, say, Wright’s 600 AB do. By the same token, Reynolds stepping up to the plate over 600 times (had 539 AB in 2008) is nearly as serious a blow to the batting average than Varitek’s .220, and it’s probably even worse because the average BA for a catcher is (random impression-based guesses) probably in the .250s or so whereas for a first baseman it must be like .270+ (at least for fantasy-relevant starters)

    I don’t know why I typed all this since I agree that Reynolds is a much higher value than Davis and that people are disproportionately afraid of low BA late in a draft than low R/HR/RBI. Maybe because my coffee was brewing. It’s done now.

  10. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: True that. They’ve got more hits than Sadaharu Oh.

  11. mc serch says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: A Beastie reference first thing in the morn! That’s almost as good as Rasmus’s widening opening. Your points on Reynolds are well taken (“I knew Chris Davis, and you Mr. Reynolds are no Chris Davis”). Davis seems to have way more upside given his talent, lineup and home ball park. But it is tough to pay for upside in the 4th or 5th round. I really wanted Davis this year but the price just got too rich. I was able to snag Aramis Ramirez at the end of the 3d round in a 12-team draft and avoid what I thought was real thinness at 3rd base this year. I think the overrarching point here is that Davis is being taken several rounds too soon and Reynolds is being heavily discounted. True that.

  12. I love Reynolds and target him in all drafts. Will Carroll took him in the 16th round of the 411 slow mock draft as well.

    He’s going to fall hard when he gets older, but for the time being his numbers should impress.

    Also his limitations on defense are overstated by many. He has a lot of errors, but his range is so good his defense is actually league average.

  13. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Grey, you forgot one strong reason not to draft Reynolds… The Diamondbacks aren’t sold on him, well, pretty much anywhere in the field. A few errors in a row and Reynolds loses playing time to Chad Tracy. Those 30 hr, could quickly become 22.

    There’s a reason they were trying to go after Joe Crede and Wigginton this offseason, and it wasn’t his bat.

  14. cockyphoenix says:
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    @mc serch: when it gets to 4th or 5th round, try looking at it this way. You are paying a fourth round pick to get such and such a deviation from the average stats at a given position, considering that if you did nothing you could get near-average stats on the wire after the draft. In the 4th or 5th rounds, the differential between pretty much any player you could pick is greater than that between Davis/Cantu, and Cantu is essentially free.

    It isn’t the 30 homers you want; it’s the 15 more homers than average at the position that you’re after.

  15. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: ohh, love me some beastie boys early in the morning.

  16. Anthony G says:
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    I got reynolds in the 10th round of a 14 team short term keeper. Him and Latin Jacobs( pena) are worrying me because if they’re swinging and missing then my avg will suffer. I have a soft spot for clean up hitters though and all it took was someone saying he looks like mark mcguire( on the juice of course) for me to fall in love.

  17. Just Another Steve says:
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    I’d still rather have Chili Davis and Shane Reynolds in their primes. Cust sayin’….

  18. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @cockyphoenix: I have not had enough coffee (or book-learning) to understand this: So you are not pro-Davis, yes? Who you believe doesn’t return enough 4th round value? You are pro-Cantu?

    Speaking of Cantu, I drafted him in the 4th round to play 2B in ’06, the year after he drove in 116 runs and tore up the WBC for Mexico. He tanked, of course. I still won the league.

    The point is, you can blow a few early picks and still compete. You don’t have to nail every single one.

    The further point: BOW BEFORE DAVIS.

    @mc serch: That’s my hope too. My hope is to snag one of Wright/Miggy*/A-Ram and not have to worry about the Rasmus’s widening opening that is 3rd base.

    *Still 3B eligible in Yahoo! Thanks, Yahoo!

  19. sean says:
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    @grey: other ‘perts have been pumping Reynolds to support draft pitching early and scour for power in the late rounds draft techniques… with that, I’ve typically seen Reynolds go to some power hungry team that took Reyes/Lincecum/Pedroia in the first three. Those teams always get stuck drafting two or more of the Reynolds, Delgado, Giambi, Jacobs (Blanco y Latino) bunch. I think that’s a hole in R/AVG/SB that just can’t be dug out of…

    I mean, in the grand scheme of things, I’d rather have Reynolds’ .250 than Figgins’ .260, but I’ve been looking at other power corner guys like Beltre, Cantu, and Encarnacion in the mid/high teens instead.

    Dooooode is hitting .346 in the Cactus League though…

  20. cubbies299 says:
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    @Baron von Vulturewins: or you could draft Uggla in the 5th/6th and get .260/30/95 from your goddamned 2B and like it. Or you could draft Uggla in the 5th and 6th and Reynolds in the 12th and lose your league cuz you have more strikeouts from two players than your opponents have on their team. Or you could just sit at home and watch old movies.

  21. cubbies299 says:
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    By the way, Grey, I have an unspeakable question. With David Wright, Alex Gordon, and the old Cooz at 3B alongside NOTAFUCKINGFIRSTBASEMEN, do you think there would be any validity to trading Wright for, say, Migs or Ryan Howard? (I don’t like Teixeira this year for some reason). Or should I just take the Blahtoon of Nickdry Swishrales and like it?

  22. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @cubbies299: Good point. Uggla and Davis are like the same guy. Davis is 3B/1B in Yahoo!, which I likes.

    This all started because of that damnable Bill James 40 HR projection…

    @cubbies299: Don’t trade Wright. Work some other trade to get some second-tier 1B guy you can live with like Votto or someone like that. Or go get Konerko. He’s good value this year, and he’ll do okay till something prettier comes along.

  23. I reached for Davis in the 1st pick of the 5th round in a 12 team, keeper league we just started. I had Reyes, Upton, Markakis, and Alexei so far.

    My options were:
    A ton of pitchers who although were very good I didn’t want to grab one yet -Felix, Billingsly, Liriano,Kazmir, Oswalt, Lackey and all relievers. Mccann and Martin at Catcher. Power OFs like Vlad and Quentin. And others wild cards like Votto, Hart, Youk and Chipper.

    I wasn’t going to pick for another 22 picks and Davis was the guy I wanted more than anyone else there. Should I not have picked him?

  24. Tony says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Yeah how is miggy 3B eligible! Yahoo is too leniant in that aspect!

    I hope Davis bats .260 I knew one guy in my draft would reach and there was no way i could reach farther than what he was gonna, so he has davis, he’s the league nazi, and i would love for nothing more than him to go down in a blaze of glorious fire!!!!

    can you smell the competition?

  25. cubbies299 says:
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    @Baron Von Vulture: Okay, I’ll ride the Kendry/Ishikawa train. I think Konerko’s owner said he was mine for Devine. But it’s a holds league, and I think that a closing Devine is top 10. Also Billy Butler’s mine for Manny Corpas. But I honestly think that Butler shouldn’t provide too much above the Kendry/Ishikawa (whichever actually gives production). Thoughts on either? Also, Giambi’s on the trading block. Keep in mind, I have Uggla and Krisby Young, and Agord so my avg is a gaping asshole (for now). I do want Votto so bad tho

  26. cubbies299 says:
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    Okay guys, so Kelvim Escobar is hitting 95 mph again. I’m really tempted to drop Jason Kubel for him, as I don’t think anyone’ll pick him up. All I gotta do is wait for him to hit the DL on opening day, then maybe pick Kubel up again. Bonderman, James McDonald, Hermida, and a few others are still available, so if I miss out on Kubel, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Thoughts? I’m I blind or is this a no risk/possibly high reward gold mine here.

  27. Tony says:
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    @cubbies299: no one is picking kubel up. I’m in a super deep league with my watch list full to the brim and he’s not even on it….

  28. Tony says:
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    when is escobar due back?

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mike Ketchen: Davis will get his ABs barring health issues or a complete collapse.

    @Mowses: Oh, yes I kinda did!

    @gleeksquad: It’s a fair point, but Chad Tracy isn’t exactly setting the world on fire to push Reynolds out. All told, they may all lose 50 ABs from last year because of Byrnes and Tracy.

    @cockyphoenix: Good points. People would get different weights in that .013, but it all balances itself out. Maybe you have Navarro and his .290 average to balance Reynolds.

    @mc serch: Word to the Third.

    @IowaCubs: They may not be sold on him, but they got him and he has the most exciting bat out of him and Tracy, so he sees his time. Plus, he’s irrefutably better value in the 20th round than Davis in the 5th.

    @Just Another Steve: Kevin McReynolds. Cust Kayin’.

    @sean: Yeah, and he tore it up last April. Worst case scenario, trade him on May One.

    @cubbies299: I agree with the Baron.

    @bpasinko: I never once said in the above I don’t like Davis. I’m not going to fault you for drafting Davis, all I’m saying is Reynolds is a cheap alternative. You did what you did, it’s fine. Don’t worry about it.

    @Tony: Potentially mid-April. He’s still very injury prone.

  30. @Grey: Sorry to seem to come off strong there. I drafted way too many risks and now I’m trying to rationalize it as a good choice. I missed the point to just call out Reynolds value.

  31. cubbies299 says:
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    @Grey: tasty. I don’t think Adenhart’s nearly major-league ready enough to displace Kelvim. And even if that happens, I’m nearly certain Joe Saunders lays a giant egg on everyone that’s ever cared about him.

  32. James says:
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    Guys, Reynolds completely skipped AAA, hit .279 in his first year, and has been working on his Ks this spring, which has him hitting .324.

  33. Tony says:
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    Matt Kemp for Carlos Quentin? I own kemp. I need power, but i hate losing the SB’s, not real strong there and Kemp is a major contributor on my team.

    Would you rather deal markakis for Quentin? or NEITHER and stick with my 5 tool studs?

    I owned quentin last year til he got hurt, and i think the power is for real.

  34. Tony says:
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    its on the table, so this isn’t a hypothetical deal…. the guy proposing got “stuck” with quentin as a keeper and doesn’t really like him. Anyones thoughts are appreciated….

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: It’s a bit of an apples for apples trade. I’d hold tight.

  36. James says:
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    @Tony – wait and see how your team performs before making a deal. What if Kemp surprises and hits more homers?

  37. Tony says:
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    @Grey: yeah i’m kinda feeling like that too… I really want to see what kemp does this year. I think quentin could hit 45 HR’s this year, but if Kemp would go 25-35 thats pretty sick…. or better? WOW

  38. gleeksquad says:
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    @Grey: i see what you are saying, but Arizona is competing for a division title, being 26 has no little relevance. Its more of a question of who hurts the team less, Tracy/etc.. or Reynolds. Reyn was 25 last year and he was moved from 3b to 2b and a bit over the field to keep his ABs up as well as moved around the lineup.

    I’m not saying i don’t like him I do, it’s just I can see where some of the round differences in where they are being drafted are coming from.

    @Baron: Sure C. Davis could give 5th round value, hey Oswalt could have a Cy Young year and be the #1 pitcher in the game. Doesn’t mean I take him before Lincecum, Johan, etc.. You can say that about any player to justify the point you’ve taken him.

    I don’t agree that you can grab Davis in the 5th b/c “who else can i take” well theres alexi so sexi, uggla, Votto, A.Gonz, Bay and so on depending on your league.

    So yea in the 5th round I’ll look much more at proven value that gets me to point A then hoping an upside risk gets me to the same point A just b/c he’s young and trendy.

    The thing about Davis is even with a good year along the top of the projections for him will he really clobber a guy like A. Gonz or Votto in stats? Not at all.. but those guys are much more stable.

    I’m not avoiding Davis, I’m just going to be disciplined on where I take him based upon my personal feelings on his projections. And baring only batters taken with the first 50 picks in my drafts I won’t be considering Davis there. I’d happily look at him from the 7th and beyond and if someone wants to grab him in the 5th, better for me in that a player i have ranked that high might get pushed down.

  39. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @bpasinko: Don’t sweat it. This is a game. It’s supposed to be fun. Part of the fun is risking big, pushing all in, grabbing for the golden ticket. The guy in your league who drafted Raul Ibanez may number-crunch his way to a title, but is he happy? Is he excited?

    He is not. He is a sad, sad man.

    The single best thing I ever did in Fantasy Baseball was draft Bo Jackson in 1987. Did I win that year? No. Where did I place? Don’t remember.

    I do, however, remember giggling like a kid (well, I kind of was still a kid) at every bat-snapping, donk-launching, bag-filching, wall-climbing-catch-making highlight. I remember him throwing out a runner from CF at the plate with a throw that DID NOT BOUNCE.

    Damn, that guy was fun to watch.

    Moral of the story: Enjoy Crash Davis.

    @Tony: I’m going to swim upstream on all the Sparkakis Love and ask: Since when is he considered a 5-cat stud? I guess 20-10 is enough to flush a man’s cheeks these days.

    @James: I should say this thread has convinced me to draft Reynolds late. Totes magotes.

  40. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @gleeksquad: Your points are all well taken.

    I think Davis’ 5th (!) round ADP (and I think you can still get him in the 6th in many leagues; I did in a few mock drafts) is a function of his 3B eligibility as much as anything. After him, the options fall off the table. You can go Atkins, who everyone hates these days, or Zimmerman, who burned me last year worse than an albini at a waterpark. Also, Davis is really the last 35HR guy on the board. Except maybe Uggla. And Reynolds.

    So if I’m looking at the board, and 3B is open, I’m thinking less return on the dollar than I am: “If not him, then who?” I’ve seen many an owner pass on guys because he didn’t want to “reach,” then end up with a team full of discards, redundancies, and yawnstipating second-choices.

    That shan’t be me, sir. That shan’t be me.

  41. Tony says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Markakis went 23-18-112 in 2007 and 20-10-87 in 2008. He bats .300 and scores right at/around 100 runs. There’s easily room for improvement. He’s what 26 or 27 years old? Born in Nov. of 1983?

    I think he can easily put up .300-25-100-15 and score 100 runs. He really needs to bump the RBI’s back up and the sb’s again tho. RBI’s are based alot on getting other guys on base so you can’t really blame that on SPARKAKIS!

  42. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Tony: All true. And at the end of the year he’ll give you something worthwhile in all areas. But given that you could end up with 20 HRs and 90 RBIs, he seems awfully Brad Hawpe-ian to me in Round 3. Everyone talks about him like he’s going to go 30-30, when he’s never even gone 20-20.

    Signed,
    Guy Who Dropped Markakis in June ’07 Then Watched Him Drive in 68 Runs In The Last 3 Months And Is Still Bitter

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    ***I’m looking at Yahoo pre-draft rankings for the first time. Shoppach’s at 240, 40 spots after Orlando Cabrera. Oh, okay.

  44. Sos says:
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    I think Baron is right about Davis. I think this hype is all about the bill james projection. That being said, I can’t wait to take him in the fifth or sixth. I’d rather die with upside potential then win with garrett scmatkins.

  45. Team Ram Rod says:
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    I took Davis in the eighth round (pick 85, 11 Team) which I think is a steal and I got Oswalt with my next pick at 92!

    Picking him in the 5th round depends where you are in that round and whose on the board. I’d say anytime in the mid 5th round, if Sexy Alexi and Adrian are off the boards.

  46. Tony says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: I dont see 30-30 but he’s def’ly better than hawpe…. hawpe doesn’t steal, doesn’t walk as much, and no holliday plus a decling atkins = ? not good. Markakis upped his walks by 30 last year while keeping his K’s the same, STRIDESSSS….. Hawpe is a couple years older and K’s more.

  47. JR says:
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    @BVV: I remember seeing Bo — then playing right — throw a guy out at home from the freakin’ warning track!

  48. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Tony: I hope Markakis does well this year. Hell, I might even draft him at the right price. I didn’t mean to compare him directly to Hawpe — Brad Hawpe is just my platonic ideal of the waiver-available OF every year who’ll give you .280/25/85.

    There’s always a guy like that out there.

  49. @Baron Von Vulturewins: I said in the beginning of my draft I’m not going to forget about Hawpe…and I forgot about Hawpe. He’s sneaky like that.

  50. cubbies299 says:
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    Hey Grey, can you help me pick 2 of these guys to be my future?

    Heyward, Gamel, Vitters, Cahill, Tillman, Jarrod Parker, Mutasz, TBeckham, Smoak, Lars Anderson, Hosmer, Carlos Santana, yonder alonso, Jesus Montero (though I’m scared they don’t let him catch), Brett Wallace, Angel Villalona, Matt Dominguez, Derek Holland…

    I’m pretty deadset on Heyward with the first pick…
    Now do I go more polished hitter (like Gamel, Lars), near-polished pitcher (Holland, Cahill), or go for raw talent that might take a few years (A Beckham, Smoak, Lars Anderson– by the way, can mike lowell just get arthritis and retire already?–)… or do i screw that all and take a catcher (Jesus Montero as a catcher, me likee)

    Also, I’m open to other suggestions. The big guys (wieters, moustakes, etc) are taken. I’ve checked your site, but i think that your post mostly addresses 2009 contribution while i’m looking for the future in a keeper league as well). Thanks, as always, Grey.

  51. cubbies299 says:
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    Revised: Cahill’s been taken. And I’m thinking of Tim Beckham over Gordon, as he has a good chance of playing this year

  52. cubbies299 says:
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    errr sorry, Gordon over Tim. Anyways, do you like Gamel’s chance for an every day role with the whole defensive liability deal? Either way, I think I have to take Gamel over Lars and Gord… Thanks Grey, for helping me make the tough choices. Otherwhise I’d probably give up, like the last episode of Clone High where they don’t tell you whether Abe chooses Joan or Cleo, not realizing they were gonna get cancelled.

  53. cubbies299 says:
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    Not to mention y’all, but doesn’t the thought of Shawn Hill in Petco get you a little tingly in your nether regions?

  54. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    Baron Von Vulturewins – “The Guy Who Dropped Markakis in June ‘07 Then Watched Him Drive in 68 Runs In The Last 3 Months And Is Still Bitter”

    Well, I’m the Guy who dropped Carlos Delgado at about the same time, (June) and saw him put up second half numbers that translated over an entire season into .303 AVG, 48 HR, about 150 RBI’s, and an OPS well over .900; in other words, stats that would have made him a unanimous MVP. And I am a die-hard Met fan. Am I bitter – nah; I just had to deal with an excruciating combination of joyous exuberance and self-loathing simultaniously every time Carlos connected (which in the last three months seemed like every time he was at bat), topped by the inevitable September Snowdive of the Metropolitans. But of course I intend (and have already) drafted Delgado, for my motto is “Ya gotta Believe” that the first half of last season (and to be honest, the last half of 2007) was the aberation. And as I could likely pick him up around the 10th round, isn’t it worth a flyer? For as you say, ultimately we are in it too have fun. Not unlike our own beloved fantasy experts, who likely don’t get the bread that their contemporary Analcysts demand.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @cubbies299: re: Clone High — Ha! Yeah, I still like Gamel.

    re: Hill — You know I love him in Petco.

  56. Joe says:
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    I think the Baron has it right, in that it’s a question of “If not Chris Davis, who?”

    Third base is awful thin this year. I suppose you could take a chance on Encarnacion or Gordon finally arriving… but their upside is much less than that of CD.

    I could also take Youk in the 4th round, if I wanted to avoid Davis. But that means I would have to sacrifice drafting someone who can steal a base, which I don’t really want to do. You just can’t buy SBs after the first 5 rounds without taking a major hit in other areas.

  57. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Love him enought to drop Guthrie, Wandy or Wang?

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Nah, Hill’s one of those players that you pickup in-season when someone gets hurt or pitches poorly. Unless the league is very deep (12 team NL-Only).

  59. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ha! What about off-season when they’re all hurt or pitching poorly?

    Still, Wandy got a win today I guess.

  60. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hill’s still not worth grabbing yet. Wait to see how the Padres handle him.

  61. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, I know. I’m happy with those guys I have. Just trying to occupy my mind…

  62. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Joe: I’m finding the 4th and 5th rounds kind of tough this year. If I miss out on Reyes (which is, obviously, likely) I think I too will focus on speed in Round 4 (Ellsbury or Granderson) because I too don’t like to carry some base-stealing schmo who sucks at everything else.

    @cubbies299: Clone High, represent. Wesley.

  63. cubbies299 says:
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    If you’re missing out on Reyes, you’re probably just in range to grab Beltran in the 2nd. Good steals there, mis amigo. Kemp, too. It’s nearly impossible to get serious steals without it being a liability somewhere. Or you could just pick up where bowden left off and grab some cheap 5-tool prime rib

  64. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @cubbies299: Yeah, my hope is to get out of Rounds 1 through 5 with roughly 50 SBs on board, which translates to either one of Reyes, or two of Beltran/Phillips/Kemp/Ellsbury/Granderson.

    Usually I draft by making a list of players I like, then, during the actual draft, plugging in skill-slots, rather than targeting players. Which makes prep hard because getting Reyes in the first is much different than, say, Braun. But that’s the fun of it, I guess.

  65. cubbies299 says:
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    Hey Grey, would you trade Devine for Cueto?

  66. cubbies299 says:
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    ooooo, he just countered with Ibanez for Devine. I get Ibanez btw. I think I have to take that

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @cubbies299: Ibanez for Devine is a great trade.

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