@mrbaseball: Interesting. I have a theory that a lot of young guys have high HR/FB not because they’re unlucky, but because they make a lot of mistakes. Whether their rates will regress to the mean this year depends on how they adjust to the big leagues and how their secondary pitches develop. Porcello is a perfect example of this. He left A LOT of breaking balls and change ups up in the zone and got rocked accordingly. I’m curious to see if he adjusts or if he keeps getting rocked.

Unfortunately, about half the guys on that list are boring and undraftable anyway. Gallardo and Beckett are interesting and might be in for some regression. George of the Rose probably just gets hurt by Coors Field.

1) Braden Looper – 15.8%

2) Rick Porcello – 14.1%

3) Trevor Cahill – 13.2%

4) Joe Blanton – 13.0%

5t) Joe Saunders – 12.8%

5t) Josh Beckett – 12.8%

5t) Ricky Romero – 12.8%

8 ) Yovani Gallardo – 12.3%

9) Bronson Arroyo – 11.9%

10 )Jorge de la Rosa – 11.8%

A) I’m not sure but i’d guess that a lot of Razzball readers are aware of what a low HR/FB or a high strand rate mean for next season. No need to assume we’re interpreting them backwards.

B) A regression in HR/FB doesn’t mean he’ll have a lower ground ball rate, does it?

Other than that, nice post. Thanks. Hearing this sort of thing is useful to me when it comes to a lot of pitchers that i’m too lazy to research myself. I won’t be drafting Greinke either way, but do you have any dirt on the guys going in rounds 7-12?

Grey are you planning on doing any FIP related posts before the season? (Or have i missed them already?)

why Greinke will NOT repeat!! Looking at in depth statistics for Greinke’s all time 2009, we see some of Greinke’s more obvious publically believed indicators of how he will perform in 2010. Here are a few

ERA: 2.16, WHIP: 1.07, K: 242, AVG against: .230

In addition, we have some lesser known categories:
Command Ratio (Strikeouts per walk): 4.7

Now the SEEMINGLY positive stat categories:
Stand Rate (% of runners left on base): 81%
HR/FB (% of flyballs that were hr’s given up): 5%

One might see these and say, wow. His control is so good that he must be able to repeat, but fail to see the last two stat categories as NEGATIVE indicators.

This is because in the MLB, the average HR/FB rate is 10%, and research shows that almost always, pitchers who stray away from this mark by +/- 5% will tend to regress toward the mean of 10%. This means an increase in hr/9, decrease in GB rate, and an increase in ERA.

Also, one might say, wow, 81% of runners that got on didn’t even score. But, studies show that in a 2 season study (2009 is season 1, 2010 season 2), starters who recorded over an 80% strand rate, 100% of them had a regression in strand rate, and had an average INCREASE in ERA of about 1.79

Putting all of this together, Greinke is in line to see a rather decent increase in ERA, WHIP, HR allowed and Wins because of his increased run output, and the putrid minor league Royals offense.

My advice, take into consideration everything I wrote, and seriously consider NOT drafting Greinke in R1/R2/R3 of your drafts. Good Luck.