Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Orlando Hudson to the Twins.  Anyone ever wonder about how Disneyland and Disney World are both in an Orange County in two different states?  Weird, right?  Yeah, deep thoughts with Grey Albright.  So Orlando Hudson goes to the Twins and retains the same value he’s had with every other team.  You can set your watch to “Blah” and Hudson will get there every time.  He’s around the same value as Crapolanco.  He’ll slide into the two hole in the lineup and slash around 85/10/65/.290/10.  As they say, a better real baseball move.  And by “they,” I mean whoever says that.  The best part of signing Hudson is that Twins fans can say see-ya to Casilla as a starter at 2B and punt Punto to under 200 plate appearances.  Anyway, here’s some more signings and goings-on for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Orlando Cabrera — To the Reds.  Orlando Cabrera is slightly more exciting than Hudson, but really it couldn’t have been more yawnstipating.  O-Cab brings a bit more speed potential with a slightly lower average.  Think 80/10/75/.275/15.  Not a bad name to look at late at MI, but you’ll definitely grow bored of him sometime in April.

Erik Bedard – Resigns with the M’s.  Solid for about three months of the six month season.  Unfortunately, no one has any idea when those three months will come.

Kevin Gregg – Signed on with the Blue Jays.  <sarcasm>When your team will battle for last place in the toughest division and you have guys that are capable of being the closer, why not sign a mediocre closer?</sarcasm> I imagine this signing is like what my friend we call, Cheap Bastard, does.  (You know, Fat Bastard.  Well, my friend’s cheap.)  He doesn’t really need a six gallons of chicken broth from Costco, but it’s on sale.  Everyone’s got a friend like this, or you are this person.  I figure the Jays will just trade Gregg away at the trading deadline.  Gregg’s not a terrible closer like his rap sheet may indicate.  He was a bit unlucky last year with homers allowed.  He was an unnecessary purchase for the Jays, but he’s no worse than most eh closers.  Around a 4 ERA, around a 1.30 WHIP and decent Ks — about 8 K/9, which puts him in the 60 K range on the year.  If he’s getting saves, he’s worth owning.  SAGNOF!  I think he will be the closer for at least the first part of the year.

Ryan Garko – Signed with the Mariners.  Again, another better in real baseball type move.  He’ll hurt Casey Kotchman’s playing time, but, as we all know, Kotchman was hurting his own playing time.

Adam Kennedy – Signs with the Nats and soils my Ian Desmond sleeper post.  Jim Riggleman said Ian Desmond could play all three outfield positions, shortstop and second base.  Not an ideal situation.  Will have to see what playing time is like for Desmond now.  If he can get 400 ABs, he’ll still have value, just not nearly as much.  I haven’t had such harsh feelings for a Kennedy since the early 90’s VJ.

From Around The Web

  1. Antrim Warriors says:
    (link)

    anyone know when Yahoo is going to get it going?

  2. Stephen says:
    (link)

    @Antrim Warriors: Not soon enough. Those slow, lazy, and unimaginative bums.

  3. Tony says:
    (link)

    @grey…. you have Wright and TULO….. its your third round pick…. you dont want a pitcher here because you like to wait….. so you have a choice between Cano, Lind, and Granderson…. who do you take? You’re also on the turn taking back to back picks…. what combo do you want there?

    wright, tulo, ……….. cano, lind or grandy?

  4. PJtres says:
    (link)

    grey…would you trade my hanley for his tulo and a his 6th round pick (which is first round after keepers)?

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Tony: Grandy and Cano, in that order.

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @PJtres: I’d want Hanley.

  7. peter says:
    (link)

    Update on Beltran’s condition: NY Post reports that he’s “furious” with the Mets. (which, to be fair, is a pretty popular position.) Beltran wonders if he should have played at all last season, and this time around won’t be thinking “team first” – 2011 is his walk year and he’s 33.

  8. Tony says:
    (link)

    @peter: beltran is washed up…. he’s furious… HA!

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @peter: Thanks for the heads up. Good to hear a professional athlete finally admit to not putting the team first.

  10. Anyone looking to get a CBS league this year? If you are, let me know! I will send you a referral code to use.

  11. peter says:
    (link)

    @Tony: @Grey: I’m not going to take Beltran seriously until he starts referring to himself in the first-person. Or, at least “Ricky”.

  12. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @JO: Stephen mentioned a good option in O. Cabrera. Polanco (2nd in Phillie order) and Scott Sizemore are equivalent options. The idea being, if you got sniped on Stewart maybe you go to Bruce, Ibanez, Reimold if they are still available at/where you wanted Stewart. That makes the dropoff to the late 2Bs more palatable? Don’t see any 3B even equivalent to those 2B late.

  13. Steve says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey – Randy Winn just signed with the Yankees. Should I pick him up?

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Uh, yeah…

  15. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Nah – it would mean droppng Brian Giles ;-)

  16. Dingo says:
    (link)

    Felipe Lopez provided some late-round value last year as a serviceable swiss-army-knife-type plug-in. Do you think that Ian Desmond might be able to fill that role, or does it depend on some other Nat getting hurt first?

  17. bpasinko says:
    (link)

    12 team keeper league, keep 10 players. I’m only keeping one pitcher (Greinke) but I have 4 first round picks including my own. If there are top tier closers available, should I snag them for pitching (like Broxton and Papelbon or something) or get the best starters available and continue the ole’ never pay for saves adage?

  18. Stephen says:
    (link)

    @Simply Fred: Remember to keep your expectations in check though. He is a rookie and, well, you just never know. Plus, he broke his fibula (lower leg/ankle) in the Arizona Fall league this past year. But, yes, the example still applies. Pick up late round, high-upside, value.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Dingo: As I said above, need to figure out what his exact role is going to be. If he can get 400+ ABs, then, yeah, I like him. Wrote the sleeper post on him.

    @bpasinko: With four picks, I’d definitely take a top closer if available. That’s going to be near the 120th pick overall. I like to have at least one closer by that point.

  20. peter says:
    (link)

    @Steve: I’m interested in seeing where Winn will go in the next ESPN mock draft.

  21. Steve says:
    (link)

    @peter: Should be an ESPN ‘pert article about him any day now.

  22. Shmorgie S. Board says:
    (link)

    If I ever have a kid, I think I’ll name him or her SAGNOF (Saves/Steals ain’t got no gender neither, Satchmo). That way, if they ever became a major league baseball player, they’d enjoy 100% ownership in fantasy baseball leagues which boast membership by Razzball fans.

    And if they were a very mediocre player, or always played on lousy teams, I could tell them, “OK, sure, there isn’t a stipple art portrait of you in the dictionary next to the entry for ‘Winner,’ but think how many fantasy baseball owners you’re helping win! Now do your old man a solid and get him a beer, eh?”

  23. I KNOW YOU LIKE GREINKE ALOT – THIS IS WHAT I READ

    why Greinke will NOT repeat!! Looking at in depth statistics for Greinke’s all time 2009, we see some of Greinke’s more obvious publically believed indicators of how he will perform in 2010. Here are a few

    ERA: 2.16, WHIP: 1.07, K: 242, AVG against: .230

    In addition, we have some lesser known categories:
    Command Ratio (Strikeouts per walk): 4.7

    Now the SEEMINGLY positive stat categories:
    Stand Rate (% of runners left on base): 81%
    HR/FB (% of flyballs that were hr’s given up): 5%

    One might see these and say, wow. His control is so good that he must be able to repeat, but fail to see the last two stat categories as NEGATIVE indicators.

    This is because in the MLB, the average HR/FB rate is 10%, and research shows that almost always, pitchers who stray away from this mark by +/- 5% will tend to regress toward the mean of 10%. This means an increase in hr/9, decrease in GB rate, and an increase in ERA.

    Also, one might say, wow, 81% of runners that got on didn’t even score. But, studies show that in a 2 season study (2009 is season 1, 2010 season 2), starters who recorded over an 80% strand rate, 100% of them had a regression in strand rate, and had an average INCREASE in ERA of about 1.79

    Putting all of this together, Greinke is in line to see a rather decent increase in ERA, WHIP, HR allowed and Wins because of his increased run output, and the putrid minor league Royals offense.

    My advice, take into consideration everything I wrote, and seriously consider NOT drafting Greinke in R1/R2/R3 of your drafts. Good Luck.

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mrbaseball: Nice post… I agree with what you said, but I have him at a low 3 ERA. A low 3 ERA and around 200 Ks is still a great pitcher. He won’t be anywhere near what he was last year, but he’ll still be good. I’d draft him around the 4th round. But he won’t be there so it’s a moot point.

  25. brett says:
    (link)

    @mrbaseball: A couple things:

    A) I’m not sure but i’d guess that a lot of Razzball readers are aware of what a low HR/FB or a high strand rate mean for next season. No need to assume we’re interpreting them backwards.

    B) A regression in HR/FB doesn’t mean he’ll have a lower ground ball rate, does it?

    Other than that, nice post. Thanks. Hearing this sort of thing is useful to me when it comes to a lot of pitchers that i’m too lazy to research myself. I won’t be drafting Greinke either way, but do you have any dirt on the guys going in rounds 7-12?

    Grey are you planning on doing any FIP related posts before the season? (Or have i missed them already?)

  26. Greinke is not a ground ball pitcher – If you live with the Fly Ball then you must live with the Homeruns too – they go together

  27. Statistical Analysis: Ten Worst Pitcher’s HR/FB from 2009

    1) Braden Looper – 15.8%

    2) Rick Porcello – 14.1%

    3) Trevor Cahill – 13.2%

    4) Joe Blanton – 13.0%

    5t) Joe Saunders – 12.8%

    5t) Josh Beckett – 12.8%

    5t) Ricky Romero – 12.8%

    8 ) Yovani Gallardo – 12.3%

    9) Bronson Arroyo – 11.9%

    10 )Jorge de la Rosa – 11.8%

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @brett: I’ll do some FIP related posts in the preseason, sure. Haven’t yet.

  29. brett says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Cool, thanks.

    @mrbaseball: Interesting. I have a theory that a lot of young guys have high HR/FB not because they’re unlucky, but because they make a lot of mistakes. Whether their rates will regress to the mean this year depends on how they adjust to the big leagues and how their secondary pitches develop. Porcello is a perfect example of this. He left A LOT of breaking balls and change ups up in the zone and got rocked accordingly. I’m curious to see if he adjusts or if he keeps getting rocked.

    Unfortunately, about half the guys on that list are boring and undraftable anyway. Gallardo and Beckett are interesting and might be in for some regression. George of the Rose probably just gets hurt by Coors Field.

  30. brett says:
    (link)

    @mrbaseball: Also, for the record, i wasn’t disagreeing with you about Greinke. I don’t necessarily think his GB rate will drop, but yeah, he will give up more home runs this year.

  31. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
    (link)

    Kevin Gregg can now join Brandon League and Gustavo Chacin in the “League of Mediocre Goggled Relievers”

Comments are closed.