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You might’ve heard this guy’s name before as one of the guys I want in every league per my pitchers pairings post (say that fast 117 times!).  So, how did it all start?  Well, I was looking at Marco Estrada‘s peripherals and I fell in love.  I couldn’t figure out what I was missing because it all looked so good.  Like good good.  Like Barefoot Contessa in a negligee with Jeffrey locked out of the house good.  Like going to Supercuts and actually getting a super cut good.  Like not having to spell out your name after you order a latte at Starbucks good.  I will now blow your mind.  For starters with 130+ innings, Estrada had the 7th best K-rate in the major leagues with a 9.30.  That usually comes with a ton of walks or a top ten starter price tag.  Estrada had the 14th best walk rate (1.89) in the major leagues.  For K/BB, he had the third best rate in the majors behind only Cliff Lee and Kris Medlen.  Not that these things can be done by petting a rabbit’s foot, but he was actually unlucky last year with a 3.64 ERA and a 3.48 xFIP.  He had an above-average first pitch strike percentage, above-average with swings generated on pitches outside the strike zone and above-average percentage of swings and misses.  In his career as a starter in 176 innings, he has a 8.85 K-rate and 1.99 walk rate.  His peripherals match those of an ace.  Estrada’s Down Side, “Are you choosing to ignore me or just not seeing it?”  I don’t see any down side whatsoever.  So what can we expect of Marco Estrada for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Unlike the guy he’s most compared to due to their clubhouse proximity, Estrada didn’t fade in September like Mike Fiers.  (Though, I do like him too — feast your big brown eyes on my Mike Fiers fantasy.)  In 37 2/3 IP in September, Estrada had a 2.63 ERA and 39 Ks with a .219 BAA.  Down Side, “Hello!  He’s gonna be 30 years old this year, where was he until now?  Pitching pee-poor middle relief, that’s where.”  Also, Estrada possesses enough “stuff” for his K-rate to make sense.  He’s not like Fiers with an 88 MPH fastball.  He pounds the strike zone– Down Side, “He was a journeyman prior to this year?!  Have you seen some of his prior year walk rates?! What about the bushel of homers he allows?!  Is this thing on?!  Hello!”  Okay, I don’t think I can ignore his down side anymore.  Down Side, “Finally!”  Estrada has a few red flags.  He came out of nowhere at 29 years old.  Even Cliff Lee, who didn’t seem to put it together until the age of 29, had a very solid year when he was 26.  Players don’t fall by the wayside with ace stuff and suddenly emerge at 29.  There’s a chance that Estrada was just misread as a reliever due to his inconsistency.  In 86 1/3 IP reliever innings, he had a 3.54 walk rate and a 5.00 ERA.  Also, homers tended to undo Estrada, which made him a lousy reliever.  The fly ball is still an issue.  Only Phil Hughes had a worst fly ball rate for all starters.  Estrada may be a 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 Ks guy more often than not with homers being his downfall.  That September I talked about previously, he only gave up two homers all month and had a 2.63 ERA.  In July, he gave up 6 homers in 32 2/3 IP and he had a 4.13 ERA.  Still, he’s worth a flyer late because maybe–just maybe–he’s figured out how to give up only the occasional solo shot and be extremely valuable.  As I did in the top 60 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball, I’ll give him the line of 10-10/3.74/1.26/175 in 185 innings.

234 Responses

  1. The next great razzball writer! says:
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    Good morning sir, as always great shit, love reading these articles first thing in the morning, The question that I have is, I am participating in a 14 team league this year, 7×7 h2h total bases obp (insted of avg) k/9 and bb(against). That being said every year I get stuck with an end of the first round selection in all of my drafts, what can I say, the fantasy gods hate me.

    I dont mint drafting late, I do enjoy being able to select nearly back to back. My question is in round 1 and 2 hypothetically I have the tenth pick of 14, and its gone 1-9 just like the rankings. Do you go fielder/tulo or feilder/beltre or longo.

    Here is my big big big question, in rounds 3 and 4 do I take goldy and a pitcher???? Im high on goldy, I stuck with him all last year, and late in the year he helped me win a championship.

    Thank you so much for the input.

    Also btw where wopuld I send samples of my writing? Also do you guys at razzball do your own stat research or do you have minions??? If you have minions, id like to sign up.

    Have a good sir.

    • RockMyFaceOff says:
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      @The next great razzball writer!: If your response is any indication of your writing ability, I think that Grey/Rudy might quickly tire from editing your work :-)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The next great razzball writer!: That makes sense if those players are there… Yeah, those four… With the fourth pick though, I’d be open to going a different way if someone falls… You can send samples to info [at] razzball.com — thanks!

  2. Lt Col Frank Slade says:
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    Grey, love your work. Estrada being ignored in most drafts I am seeing so I am encouraged.

    Quick keeper question. Auction keeper 5×5 (OBP) with $260 budget.
    I can keep five of the following:

    Longoria $31
    McCutchen $28
    BJ Upton $16
    Rios $4
    Gordon $14
    Kipnis $1
    MadBum $19
    Latos $16
    JZimm $14
    Gio $11

    • cubbies299 says:
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      @Lt Col Frank Slade:

      McCutch @ $28 is pretty nice. I just love Zimm, so $14 seems like good value for him. Gio apparently didn’t take Roids, so there’s that. I don’t like Kipnis, but at $1, the potential steal there is hard to ignore. He could be a $15 player.

      I’d go:
      McCutch
      Zimm
      Gio
      Kipnis or Longo

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Lt Col Frank Slade: Thanks! I’m not sure how many teams, but probably… Gio, Kipnis, McCutchen, Zimm, Upton

  3. costaricanchata says:
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    not sure where you’re getting 185 innings .

    a 30 year old guy that’s been playing organized ball since 2006 ,
    threw 138 innings last year , and before that his high was 143.1 (136 in the minors) .
    other than that , never close to 100 innings .

    if he makes your projected 185 , am guessing rudy and whomever that “v” guy is (versachi ?)
    will put them on their 2014 list of risky pitchers …. if they’re still doing that .

    • Verducci still does the risky pitchers. I’m always on the fence before doing it each year so it’s still TBD.

      While I agree with Grey on Estrada’s potential for 2013, I side with you on IP. I have him at 161 IP as part of the Steamer projections and the auction value / Point Share calculations.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @costaricanchata: Versace doesn’t put guys over the age of 25 on his list…

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        solid

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’m wearing to the first annual Razzball convention in Vegas!

      • oh, jessica marie. says:
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        @Grey: I actually lol’ed. Like, out loud.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Gotta keep my four girl readers happy…

  4. Kubrick says:
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    Yahoo has Estrada ranked for the 13th round. Is that late enough or have they priced him out of his sleepiness?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Kubrick: In what a 10 team league?

      • Jim Holzgen says:
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        @Grey:

        I just did a Yahoo 12 team mock where he went in the 14th and ADP has him in the 15h and 169 overall. Doesn’t seem to be a sleeper there.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          170 overall is average… That means he’s going later in some and earlier in others… He’s a sleeper…

          • Jim Holzgen says:
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            @Grey:

            Accept for the dopes in my league who don’t vary much from the yahoo rankings that have him at 159 overall. I like him but I don’t see him falling very far.

            • Jim Holzgen says:
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              @Jim Holzgen:

              Except

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              There’s always ESPN (Granted, I have no idea where he’s ranked over there, but I’d be surprised if it were that high)…

              • Jim Holzgen says:
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                @Grey:

                238 at ESPN. I’m glad to see the disparity. Makes me believe there are some independent thinkers out there.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, figured someone had to drop the Estrada ball…

    • costaricanchata says:
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      @Kubrick:

      is that an old musial card ?

  5. centerfieldballhawk says:
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    Speaking of Phil Hughes, reports out of Tampa are a bulging disk in his back. Worried?

    • VinWins

      VinWins says:
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      @centerfieldballhawk: Somebody asked yesterday and Grey said: “Concern, yeah… But it’s still very early… He won’t even miss Opening Day as of right now…”

      • cubbies299 says:
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        @VinWins:

        It’s Phil Hughes though. I guess if “450 foot hrs given up” is a category, then he’s a solid buy

        • OaktownSteve says:
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          @cubbies299:

          It’s not the 450 footers that worry me with him. It’s all the ones that’ll go 315 feet to right.

  6. SpecialFNK says:
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    I wasn’t sure where to ask this.
    I noticed rotochamp has multiple different projections under a players name from various places. one of the projections says it’s from “Steamer-Razzball”. but they are different than the projections from this site.
    what is the difference from “Steamer-Razzball” to this site just Razzball?

    • This corresponds to the Steamer Hitter and Pitcher projections under the Stats menu. We’ve had a few updates since then so Rotochamp is probably working off an old version. Probably only impacts a handful of players whose playing time or team have changed since late January.

  7. noahdad says:
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    Offered Beltre (equivalent of 25$) for Waino (equivalent of $16). League has both 3b slot (I also have Headley really cheap) and CI slot. 8 keepers. Waino is really my only P to keep. I know you are not all that concerned about having a top 10 P as I read your columns. Thoughts? Thanks! :)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @noahdad: I’d keep Beltre…

      • noahdad says:
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        I have Waino and was offered Beltre. So you are saying in effect do the deal?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          How many teams in your league?

          • noahdad says:
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            14 teams.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’d go with Wainwright…

  8. Sky

    Sky says:
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    I would like to pretend and think I was at least somewhat of an inspiration for this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtbvAuA8szA

    I know you were probably annoyed getting that link from me every day since July of last year but the proof’s in the pudding. Glad my subliminal message paid off.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sky: I just had that moment when you realize subliminal messages worked on you but you didn’t know and you look in the mirror and you’re wearing war paint on your face….

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        You’ve been falling asleep to the Braveheart soundtrack…again?

        Sidenote: watched compliance last night. F’ed up. The fact he didn’t actually get jail time is probably the most disturbing part of it all and that wasn’t even a part of the movie. Just a firm reminder that for all the pretense of being intelligent beings, we’re just as trained as our dog in terms of a Pavlovian response to certain subjects and figures.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sorry, missed this comment this morning… Damn, I had just forgot about that movie and you go and remind me… So effed up he didn’t get jail time… Whole thing was really effed up… Glad I could disturb you, as well…

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            Yeah, in the end it’s clear why he targeted fast-food chains and it sounds like it worked. Not saying I’m the best and the brightest but the percentages were in his favor to land a few dumbclucks working a burger joint. Just the numbers were staggering to me…what, over 130?

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: I bet you have that shirt too.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Holy crap, I didn’t realize it but I’m wearing it right now!

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey: no pants?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Nope, I got pants on… Buttcheeks cut out though…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Grey: you’re so west hollywood

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Close… Don’t tell t. moore…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: it will be our little fabulous secret

    • Carnac says:
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      @Sky: There are so many important moments in this video, I don’t know where to start. Sorry, work, I’ll see you next week.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I have it as it’s own playlist on youtube for infinite loop goodness. It’s like a Harlem Shake video: you learn just a little bit more each time about the video and how much you’ve wasted your life with each viewing.

    • Carnac says:
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      @Sky: …the LONE person rocking out at 3:00.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        He looks like he’s trying to start a Mosh and is very unsuccessful with it.

        • L-Boogie says:
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          @Sky: Is that William Forsythe in the beginning??? From that clip you could just tell he was destined for bigger and better things. Like Steven Segal, Nick Cage, and Rob Schneider movies.

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @L-Boogie: thats a piss poor assesment of the great Forsythe. Great in raising arizona, great in American Me, great in Once Upon a Time in America. Yeah he did lots of things to pay the bills but hey anyone that was on Chips and TJ Hooker are OK in my book.

            • L-Boogie says:
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              @Jack Full of Hate: Speaking of cop shows, according to IMDB (the 2nd greatest website on the internet)Mr. Forsythe’s roles have included Sgt. Buck Atwater, Police Chief John Crone, Detective Mike Stoller, Detective Hardcastle, Detective Chuck Fowler, Det. Torrance, Sheriff Wydell, Captain Chris Sutter, Ret. Detective Gil Diamante, and Capt. Tom Edwards. Oh, and John Wayne Gacy.

            • L-Boogie says:
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              @Jack Full of Hate: And yet, ironically, on CHiPs and TJ Hooker he played a criminal.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            Haha, yup! Didn’t notice that the first time. Devil’s Rejects is a great Forsythe movie.

            • Jack Full of Hate says:
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              @Sky: what about American Me

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Who hasn’t seen American Me? Shizz is wonderful…

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  I haven’t. Not big on the mafia/crime wars movies in general. Not my bag. *Runs from thrown tomatoes*

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: really, i would of figured you were a shoe in for men in prison movies

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I saw the men’s version of Chained Heat – Chained Meat – and gotta say it wasn’t quite rapey enough for my tastes. So much soap, so little dropped.

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: good to know you have such a keen eye on prison rape. when the shower scene comes on do you start thinking, “drop that soap, drop that soap, drop that soap!”

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I actually start chanting ‘Fresh meat, fresh meat, fresh meat!’

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: :)

                • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                  @Grey: what about blood in blood out? one of my favorites

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Nope… How about Colors?

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Grey: I am a nightmare walking, psychopath talking
                      King of my jungle just a gangster stalking
                      Living life like a firecracker quick is my fuse
                      Then dead as a deathpack the colors I choose
                      Red or Blue, Cuz or Blood, it just don’t matter
                      Sucker die for your life when my shotgun scatters
                      We gangs of L.A. will never die – just multiply

                      so yes I have, what a crazy time when i was a kid out here and your parents not letting you go to the movies because people getting shot up at movie theatres. we snuck in to see it after the hype cooled down,but damn that movie brings back some memories. Penn and Duvall, its hard to go wrong. But check out Blood In, Blood Out. its got three different story lines. good movie.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Nice, will have to check it out… Honestly, never heard of it and I watched all of those movies…like 4 dozen times each… I still stop to watch Juice…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Wow, Hackford… I’m really surprised I’ve never heard of this… I enjoy Benji Bratt, as well… Hope it’s on Instant Streaming…

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Grey: I have an extra burned copy, what is the razzball p.o. box. ?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Is the email you put in the comments your actual email?

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Grey: yes

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Thanks!

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Sky: I like the William Forsythe cameo in the beginning. he has one of my favorite nicknames in a movie….Cockeye.

      Oh yeah and the Estrada thing made me dance….no pants

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        You should upload to youtube. A million hits are guaranteed.

        Yeah, I didn’t notice that straight away but agreed: Forsythe is a great character actor. I mentioned to L-Boogie I do love Devil’s Rejects. He did a great job.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        Had to google that. Once Upon A Time In America: almost a 4 hour long movie. That’s nuts! I think I’ve started and stopped that one a million times on Netflix. I know it’s worth it but I literally have to make an event of it.

        • Jack Full of Hate says:
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          @Sky: its ridiculously long and weird but the performances are great and I hear the book is rel good. The 4 hour is the euro version, it was considered to complex for American audiences when it came out so they gave us a shorter version.

  9. By The Great Gaping Sphincter Of The Holy Ghost, Mr Gray… HUH???

    Why not make this a daily shout??? Because, By the Sweet Blistered Nipples Of The Blessed Virgin, you certainly have made a good start of it, laddie!!!

    What’s next a favorite daily recipe from Marco’s cookbook???

    Let’s see if we can get Estrada taken in the top 5 RDs of 50% of the Razzball Yapper Leagues…. Why not???? Is that it????

    Or maybe you are just so bored, you are trying to see how many times you mention him this preseason for fun….

    Another, “What’s next???”… See how many times you can sneak his name spelled backwards or how many words you can make out of it while slipping it into articles that have nothing to do with him at all……

    E S T R A D A !!!!!

    E S T R A D A !!!!!

    E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!!

    I awoke up last night in a cold sweat screaming out, E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! … It was terrifying… STOP IT!!!!!

    I’m begining to believe this may be some type of subliminal ruse – an attack on the collective subconsciousness of your readers – to move some of your favorite pitchers down your lists by etching E S T R A D A in their minds – So the other pitchers will be there for “Only You” in the late rounds.. They will pick Estrada and not know they are even doing it….

    I can imagine 1000s of Razzman devotees and commenters turning on their puters for your drafts in zombie like trances repeating, E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!! E S T R A D A !!!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @T Moore: E S T R A D A !!!!! F R A Z I E R !!!!! R U T L E D G E !!!!!

      • @Grey:

        Something sinister is going on on here…

        Are Rudy and the rest of the crew mixed up in it too???

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nope… Nothing sinister…

        • OaktownSteve says:
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          @T Moore:

          …and you thought you were controlling his mind. Looks like the worm is on the other foot.

    • Big AL says:
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      @T Moore:
      Bad news T Moore, Estrada is on Cheat Sheet.com as a sleeper pick story.Before you know he’ll be going between Verlander and Kershaw.Sorry ,but I’ll be piecing him one pick before you when we draft.
      Just yanking your chain.Not a lot of secrets out there if you pay a little attention. Just have a sound draft strategy and do your homework and you’ll be fine.Estrada could blow his elbow out in spring training.

  10. Commish Cauda says:
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    20-team, mixed, H2H-Points, Contract Keeper League

    I own Estrada, Fiers and Miley who I picked up as free agents last year. I now have to assign a 1-year or 2-year contract to them, but also have the option of giving one a 3-year contract if I want.

    Who would you invest in? Are any of them worth more than a 1-year deal? If so, who and for how long?

    Thanks.

    MJC

      • Commish Cauda says:
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        @Grey:

        Same options…what about a guy like Trevor Rosenthal? Worth doing the max 3-years?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nope, one year…

          • Commish Cauda says:
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            @Grey: @Grey:

            Really? I lose them back to the draft after their contracts are up. So even though none of them have a track record to really count on, I thought at least Rosenthal would be worth a multi-year contract? Gotta think 2014 and 2015 will be better than his 2013. Or is it because there’s just too much risk involved?

            For what it’s worth, I have no bats to invest in, and I have to use the contract years or lose them. I have six years to spread amongst the four arms.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Well, if you have contract years burning a hole in your pocket, sign Rosenthal until 2014… Don’t love committing to young arms though… No idea where these guys end up going…

              • Commish Cauda says:
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                @Grey:
                Fair enough. Thanks.

  11. Hondo says:
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    Arrgggh!!! PLease don’t do a sleeper post on Erasmo,you’re killiing me Grey.

  12. uncdrew says:
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    I have the memory of a senile goldfish. Can y’all please remind me how deflated Ryan Braun’s auction value was going into last year’s draft due to the steroid accusation?

    Considering keeping him with the thought that perhaps I got him on the cheap last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @uncdrew: I think he went for the 3rd highest price… There wasn’t much of a deflating…

      • uncdrew says:
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        @Grey:

        Gotcha, thank you. For those guys in my league who are reading, I’ll keep Paul Goldschlager ($1), Austin “Action” Jackson ($2) and perhaps Mr. Braun. I’ll let you know 2 minutes prior to auction.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hehe… Sneaky!

  13. Marco POLO Marco POLO says:
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    I can only keep 2 of these three SP/RP. Who should I keep…please – thank you.

    Hisashi Iwahuma
    Kris Melden
    Marco Estrada

  14. Booya says:
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    Hey Grey would you mind ranking your top 10 holds guys for me?

    Thanks man!

      • Booya says:
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        @Grey:

        They aren’t really ranked there though…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          There will be a ranking/projections post for Holds guys next week… It was for the mean’s time…

          • Booya says:
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            @Grey:
            Ah, I see. Well I’m drafting right now and the guys available are: David Hernandez, Pestano, Marshall, Venters, Bastardo, Storen, Cook, Boggs.

            Could you put them in the order that you would want them really quick for me?

            Thanks again

            • Booya says:
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              @Booya:
              Add Benoit to that list too

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Venters, Boggs, Hernandez, Storen, Pestano…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Benoit, Venters, etc…

              • Booya says:
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                @Grey:
                Much appreciated!

  15. Carnac says:
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    As suggested on the Hairpin a while back… The Barefoot Contessa becomes WAY more compelling if you imagine Jeffrey is dead. When he died years ago, time stopped for Ina – and her mind fell into total insanity. She lives her life like Jeffrey is on his way home and spends her days narrating household duties to an audience of no one. “I’m going to prepare a real treat for Jeffrey’s lunch tomorrow,” Ina explains, smiling at an empty room. “Make sure you have really good tomatoes,” she whispers to herself as she chops. Those sassy gay friends that she regularly entertain? Home health aides.

    Also, I’m re-watching Arrested Development for the umpteenth time; but pretending Michael Bluth is Barack Obama and everyone else as Congress.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Carnac: HA! Oh, man, now I’m picturing Barefoot Contessa writing recipes on windows like she’s in A Beautiful Mind…

      • Carnac says:
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        @Grey: …or maybe some character driven Oscar bait like Shine. Ina wanders into an East Hampton restaurant, soaking wet, confused, homeless. Geoffrey Rush helps her get her life back on track and the movie ends with Ina making campbell’s cream of mushroom soup in front of a teary, applauding live studio audience.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ina doesn’t do improv… She has a cookbook, “How To Serve Man” and her entire life is written out by Emma Thompson…

  16. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Okay, I’m back. It’s been a while, but I’m back. Miss me??

    Iowa Cubs
    Razzball OG, class of 2006

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @IowaCubs: Welcome back, beautiful!

  17. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    Mr. Grey, sir…

    Looks like I’m back in the saddle. After football and four months of a new baby, I finally feel comfortable getting back into baseball. It’s about damn time.

    Anyway, looking for some advice on keepers/pre-draft trade deals. My 8 team H2H keeper league is doing an overhaul on keeper rules, for the better, I presume. We used to be a league where you got 5 keepers of unlimited years. Now we’re doing a two year limit on keepers – if you acquire them during the season, their first year doesn’t start until the next season. And you can name one franchise player that has no limit on term.

    That being said, my 3 for sure guys for this season are Fielder, Longoria, and J-Up. After that I have Hamilton, Tulo, Bruce, Bumgarner, Aroldis. Most likely scenario is keeping the glass jawed Hamilton and Tulo.

    1) Do you agree with that keeper scenario?

    2) Would you try to move anyone for an Adam Jones or Goldy?

    ***I’m trying to get Miggy or Votto, but those deals are going to be longshots.

    Stats: H, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OB+SLUG, W, QS, SV, Ks, Ks/9, ERA, WHIP

    Much appreciation, as usual.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Wilsonian: About time you rejoined us… 1) Yup 2) Yeah, Hamilton for Jones…

      • Wilsonian says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Oh I’ve been lurking and reading. Commented a couple times, but man, life got in the way of stalking you completely. Thanks for the advice. I’m really trying for Jones, but of course the Old Man has him and he likes to try to rip me off…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It’s time to teach the Old Man a lesson…

          • Wilsonian says:
            (link)

            @Grey: so Pops comes at me with a Hamilton for Jones offer. I didn’t even have to ask. I’m in! Too bad it looks like we’re changing our keeper rules and it’ll only be Mr. Jones and me for two seasons.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Nice! Peace out, Pops!

  18. Username says:
    (link)

    16 Team league. Keep 2 and give up the draft round they were previously taken in. Keeping Miggy Cabrera and giving up 1st round pick. Need to decide whether to keep Verlander and give up a 2nd round pick or keep Gio “I’ve never even heard of Biogenisis” Gonzalez and give up a 6th round pick.

    My concern is that most teams will keep at least one of their top 2 round picks from last year which will dilute the talent available in round 2. Makes me lean Verlander. Some of Grey’s sage advice would be awesome. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Gio

  19. Big AL says:
    (link)

    Ahhhhh !!!!!!! It’s February and mock drafting and ranking lists are in the air.Also top top secret drafting strategy lists too. T Moore is just a little upset with you spreading the word. Last time I looked it’s WHAT YOU DO !!!!!!. ESTRADA,ESTRADA,ESTRADA !!!!!!. I drafted him in round 20 yesterday in a 14 team league so he’s still a secret.ESTRADA,ESTRADA,ESTRADA !!!!!!!.
    By the way your K drooling again,clean up your chin.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sorry, pass the napKin…

  20. T.t.t.t.t.t.today JR! says:
    (link)

    My only concern with Marco is that Pitch FX does not like his secondary offerings. The only positive value pitch he has is the fastball which is thrown at 90 mph. This is a low velocity for a RHP and makes me skeptical of his future success. Definitely worth a flyer though, he is an ideal #4-6 fantasy starter.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, he’s a backend starter with upside…

  21. T.J. says:
    (link)

    Re: Estrada. I’m in a 16-team mixed Yahoo! H2H 6×6 (R, OPS, K, QS; relievers are worthless) league, $260 budget, 9 hitters, 9 pitchers, 5 benchies. I’m guessing inflation will be in the 40-50% range (doe to a $5 free agent rule). I can keep six of the following:

    J-Up, $33
    Asdrubal, $2
    Cuddyer, $2
    Hart, $5
    Posey, $27
    Chris Davis, $5

    Darvish, $26
    Estrada, $5
    Holland, $5
    Hughes, $5
    Cliff Lee, $32
    Marcum, $5

    I’m thinking J-Up, Asdrubal, Cuddyer, Hughes, Cliff Lee, and Estrada. I’d like to flip Posey to a True Believer. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Those six make sense… Depends what you can get for Posey…

  22. Jay says:
    (link)

    in 10 tm H2H 5 keeper league – keeping Braun, Votto, Longo, Hamels Cain. Have the 5th pick in first round after keepers. Could trade Braun for Hanley, Stras and first overall pick after keepers.

    Possible available options Bautista(slight chance), Heyward, Grienke, EE, R Zimmerman, Cespedes.

    Would have to to throw one of Cain or Hamels back.

    take the deal?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Take it, throw back Hamels…

  23. Randy BoBandy says:
    (link)

    As much I love the Jays optimism (living in the GTA)…who gets injured first? Johnson or Morrow? I think it’s inevitable.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Johnson

  24. costaricanchata says:
    (link)

    @ Grey

    have you mastered this dance , yet ?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dxeq1iYFY_w

    that oppan gangam style crap ain’t gonna get you laid .

    at least show her this video and watch what happens .
    you can thank me later .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m working on the Harlem Shake now…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, that’s such a great video… Simplicity at its best…

          • Steve says:
            (link)

            @Grey: You probably know already but apparently they had shot a whole other vid but they hated it, and the director noticed this guy dancing and got him to dance along to the song and that was pretty much it.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Oh, wow, no, I had no idea… That makes it so much better… So the budget for that video probably was still a million dollars….

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Grey: stylistics, i just need to play it and any latina will hop in the backseat, no dance needed

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          They like when you sing them Mentirosa…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, I’m totally Biggie… That video should have 80 million views easy…

  25. Jack Full of Hate says:
    (link)

    to play devils advocate, is the transition from relief to full starter going to cause a bad fade? I looked at his minor league numbers and he always hovers around the 140 innings mark. Is this first full season as a starter going to hurt what he built last year. I have never been a fan of the season after the first conversion year. Thats why Sale can be on your team. I love the numbers but I don’t like the non statistical risks with him. If I was to own him it would have to be a deal and if you are in an RCL it ain’t going to happen. For those of you that play with non razzballers then you just got a good upside with little risk at the proper price.

    I know he will be over-drafted in the RCL’s so that puts him off my board

    • costaricanchata says:
      (link)

      @Jack Full of Hate:

      combined minor league and major league stats :
      2006 …. 59 .2
      2007 …. 105.2
      2008 …. 152.1
      2009 …. 143.1
      2010 …. 51.1
      2011 …. 92.2
      2012 …. 138.1

      my concern is his age … (30 years) .
      maybe his best years are behind him .
      unless he’s converting into a knuckleballer , i am worried how effective
      he might be (or not be) once he reaches that 150 IP plateau .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not sure we should consider last year his first conversion year…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Grey: he’s in a grey area, no pun intended actually it works both ways so yes pun intended too. I’m just saying I wouldn’t reach for him and in the RCL he is going to go way to high. I think if i had to choose between him at 60 and CJ at 57 I would take wilson every time. But thats me playing it safe

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Wilson may not be that safe if he’s not recovered from surgery…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Grey: true, but they all fall into that area where I know outside my top 10 picks most of them won’t be on my time by aug 1st.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, that is true…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
                (link)

                @Grey: once i get past my top two starters i go after NL, preferably year 3-4 upside arms with pitcher friendly confines. unless someone is dropping that i think is a steal then I stick to my philosophy about my staffs.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Sounds like a solid plan…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: one year my1, 4,5, and 6 were nl west arms that i would sit in colorado

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I would draft NL West arms every year… Probably why I’m so high on Ryu compared to others… Give me the entire Dodgers pitching staff…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: high on ryu, hmm sounds like something the kids do today. hey lets go score some ryu and get whacked out of our gourdes!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha… Sounds also like a teenager text acronym… RYU gonna draft him?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Whip-its and hadoukens behind the lunch hall after school!

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
                      (link)

                      @Jack Full of Hate: sky, whats a lunch hall? we only had benches outside. must be the great weather. has it done the daily rain there yet today?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      It’s where we feed all the kids the pink playdough meat: http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/usda-ships-seven-million-pounds-of-pink-slime-to-public-school-lunch-programs-march-7-2012.jpg

                      We’ve had a lot of dry and cold spells of late, actually. Moreso than normal but we’re gonna get payback for it and it may have already started. Had a rainstorm last night and it looks like it’s threatening again right now. Lucky me, I’ll get to walk home in it if the clouds don’t hold. Glad I wore boots and not the tennis shoes.

  26. Eddy says:
    (link)

    *****ONE SPOT OPENED UP IN MY $10 RCL******

    Unfortunately, an owner dropped out last night, so there’s an open spot. This will be my third year running this league, so don’t worry about skepticism with payments.

    I use leaguesafe to process the payments and the draft is set for Friday, March 29 at 8 p.m. Link to join below!

    http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leaguesetup/settings?leagueId=4564

  27. Marty says:
    (link)

    Did you see the CBS sports mock draft. Frazier went 207th. I am thinking I my keep andrus in round 11 over Frazier in 31 and draft Frazier back in round 9.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      If you can get him back, by all means…

  28. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Haha greyt stuff. Knew I liked this Estrada guy but didnt know why until now!

    Gonna try and grt this guy as a 6th starter in all my leagues. Noone else with his K ability at that price.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Git r dun!

  29. DKohn says:
    (link)

    Marco Estrada sleeper post? What are we Razzbabies?

    I haven’t felt this cheated since I bought my second bag of weed ever, and realized the first asshole sold me a dime bag. That scumbag! I mean who wants a dime bag of weed, Razzbabies probably.

    Ahh ‘m just messing, I can’t stay mad at you! And the statistical analysis was quite good, although the devil’s advocate, Mr. Downside almost started to scare me at the end, but I have no doubt he will be on my team.

    Also what was that food show we’re supposed to watch again, the link for “Please, blog, may I have some more?” won’t open.

    E S T R A D A !!! F R A Z I E R !!! R U T L E D G E!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Worst Cooks in America…

  30. crock says:
    (link)

    I’m in a 14 team 6×6 (standard 5×5 with obp and holds) league. We keep one player(for one year only) from the previous year at his draft round. The winner of the league gets first choice of draft slot. I won the league last year so I get to first pick of my draft slot. I will be keeping Adam Jones (8th round). These are the notable guys who will definately be thrown back: Cano, Pujols, Votto, Kemp, Bautista, Braun, Tulo, Cargo, Castro, Reyes, Jupton, Kinsler, Hanley, AGon, Goldy, Pedroia, Stanton and Wright. Prince and Mccutch will more than likely be thrown back as well. Trout is definately being kept and Longo and Miggy as well.

    So with all that my question is where is the ideal slot to draft from? Also if Miggy is thrown back (we announce our keepers before deciding draft slot) do I take the first slot? I picked first last year and waiting 27 picks to draft again sucks!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d aim for the middle of the 1st round…

      • crock says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        I was thinking of picking 7th. Which couple of guys would be ideal to pair with jones?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Anyone except an OF, per my pairings post and rankings…

  31. Jack Full of Hate says:
    (link)

    since we have started talking movies, have you seen swimming with sharks? I’m sure you have but you never know

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, great movie… Before Spacey brought this other baggage to a role…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Grey: being a hollywood guy I figured you have. just checking. what about confidence?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I refuse to watch anything with Ed Burns…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Grey: why is that?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              He sucks the life out of my soul…

              • Steve says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Not because Christy Turlington picked him ahead of you?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  @Steve: He’s just sooooooo lame…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
                (link)

                @Grey: its that voice, its really a soul sucking mechanism of satan….I know now why I like that move, its the sirens song of satan.

                He doesnt bother me

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Ed Burns has the personality of melted TCBY…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: anyone else on Grays hollywood hate list?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Nails on a chalkboard: Jamie Kennedy, Ed Burns and the Todd McFarlane that wants to be in front of the camera… Lena Dunham is quickly headed that way… I’m sure I’m forgetting about 500 people…

                    • And what’s the deal with Marlie Matlin? Take some vocal lessons if you want to act.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Out of empathy, I mute the TV when she’s on…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      I just did the sign language for ‘tsk, tsk’ where I rub the top of one index finger with another at you both for that.

                      BTW, you both wanna go out later? How about six? Six is good. You got a problem with six?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I’m going to Williams-Sonoma for Day 12 of wedding registering where we still haven’t registered for anything…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      I’m calling dibs on the salad shooter!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I want a marshmallow shooter…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      A his and hers set, you mean. What a great way for a married couple to resolve problems: shooting sweet, fluffy nothings across the room at each other.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Little fluffy pillows of hate…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      I’m sure gun control laws will eventually ban those too. I can read the headlines now

                      ‘Marsh-Meloncholy: Ten people stricken with diabetes as man with semi-automatic-Jett-Puffed Rifle guns down local bakery’

                      The writers for that paper really need to work on trimming down their headlines.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha! Yeah, that headline goes from above to below the fold…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: I think you mean seth mcfarlane. i agree he should stick with voicing cartoons and stuffed animals.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Seth, yes… Mea culpa… So annoying now that he’s pursuing a career in front of the camera…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: wedding registry how fun, you should set a pay pal for commenter donations

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
                      (link)

                      @Jack Full of Hate: little fluffy pillows of hate, I might have to use that to go with some of my other names like jack full of realism and your new one jack full of tolerance.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I’m at Willams-Sonoma still, lord help me…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Does that seriously do anything? I kinda wanna try it…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Not that I tried it but it actually would. My science is a bit rusty but everything about it makes sense. Or maybe you could just add this to your gift registry:

                      http://www.awolspirit.com/

                      If the bald dude with the two hot chicks on each side of him in the upper right tells me anything about this product, it’s that it works and you’ll be damn handsome when it does.

          • I think he purposefully kept a posse of bad actors so he looked better in comparison. If his girlfriend at the time (Maxine Bahns) was any hotter and wooden, she’d have been a campfire. And the brother who disappeared for 15 years before GEICO resurrected him had the range of a sore-ankled Derek Jeter at short.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Pasta diving Brother McMullen!

            • Jack Full of Hate says:
              (link)

              @Rudy Gamble: I still like confidence alot, but that has more to do with the cast than burns

  32. Steve says:
    (link)

    Grey – do you think you’re worrying a little less about AVG this year? Or about the same as previously?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I haven’t made a conscious effort to worry about it less… If anything, I thought I was giving guys with solid averages a bigger boost this year… (relatively)

      • Steve says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Oh, ok. I Might have to double check!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Could you help the guy in the top 400 post?

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
      (link)

      @Steve: not sure if its ever been a point of great emphasis.

      hey do they still make fosters ice down there?

        • Jack Full of Hate says:
          (link)

          @Steve: that stuff use to get me so tanked, like black out and wake up with busted up knuckles drunk. good times living abroad!

  33. noahdad says:
    (link)

    Would you exchange Butler and Craig (I have Craig for about half Butler) if you were able to exchnage Yovanni (me) for Price? Thx.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, sounds decent…

  34. Kris Medellín says:
    (link)

    @Grey

    12 Team Standard 5×5, Yahoo lineup

    Pick 5 out of this list:
    Gardner $6
    Hamilton $38
    Dickey $6
    Medlen $6
    Samardz $6
    Estrada $6
    Niese $6
    Mo Rivera $6

    I’m leaning Rivera, Dickey, Medlen, Samardz, Niese…I think Medlen and Niese can balance out Samardz in WHIP. Then I’ll try to draft one more tier 1/tier 2 pitcher + estrada if it’s a good price and that should equal a Grey-approved staff, right?

    What to you think?

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice username… Sounds solid… Make sure you draft some hitters…

      • Kris Medellín says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Coo thx

  35. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    i got a sleeper for you,american idol tonight,thatll put you to sleep,the guys suck,iand i mean really

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Damn, that’s disappointing to hear…

  36. Carnac says:
    (link)

    Pick 6, 12 team, 5×5, h2h

    Altuve ($7), Granderson ($19), Aaron Hill ($8), Kemp ($37), Rutledge ($1), BJ Upton ($20), Peavy ($6), Wainwright ($11), J-Zimm ($13)

    I’m thinking Kemp, Granderson, Upton, Hill, Rutledge, Wainwright. My thinking… in this league power is always scarce and pitching relatively plentiful. Do you disagree? Is keeping Granderson AND Upton a deathwish? (<– I'm tempted to think not since avg matters much less in h2h.)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d go Altuve over Hill…

  37. Matt says:
    (link)

    How you rank Banuelos, Wisler, Ross, Lamb, Campos and Tyrell Jenkins in dynasty?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You should ask Scott our prospect writer…

  38. AJ says:
    (link)

    I just did an auction for a 10 team ESPN standard public league. Now I remember why I never play that format. I just tried to get value after the top 8 or so went for $50+ each. It was almost like I was drafting with 9 Matthew Berrys. Any thoughts on what I should target for Andrus?

    C – VMart
    1B – Agon
    2B – Kinsler
    SS – S. Castro
    2B/SS – Pedroia
    3B – Lawrie
    1B/3B – Goldschmidt
    OF – Granderson
    OF – J. Upton
    OF – Bruce
    OF – A. Craig
    OF – C. Crawford
    Utility – Big Papi
    Bench – Andrus (caught price enforcing)
    Bench – Aoki

    SP – Greinke
    SP – Wainwright
    SP – Scherzer
    SP – Zimmermann
    SP – McCarthy
    SP – Estrada
    RP – Betancourt
    RP – Romo
    RP – C. Janssen
    RP – K. Jansen

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, the team looks pretty ridiculous, Andrus isn’t much more than a $12 guy…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oops, I misunderstood your question… I’d take Andrus and Granderson and upgrade that OF spot… Think an Adam Jones, Hamilton type outfielder…

  39. Herbert Stencil says:
    (link)

    Hey, so a couple of questions.

    First, I’m in a keeper league transitioning from draft to auction, so trying to understand keeper value. We keep 4+1 rookie, and I’m wondering if you can link to a post about calculating inflation? Second, we have the keepers for one year at last year’s value (9×9 league AVG, R, SB, H, BB, HR, RBI, OPS, XBH + ERA, W, L, K, K/BB, WHIP, SV, BAA, WIN%). My options are as below. I’m thinking Harper, Cespedes, Encarnacion, Sale. Then one out of Scherzer/Andrus/Upton/Cano. Head says Scherzer (although I don’t like keeping pitchers), but not sure whether inflation makes one of the others worth keeping.

    Appreciated.

    Cano 36
    Upton 35
    Andrus 16
    Wieters 14
    Hart 12
    Scherzer 9
    Sale 6
    Encarnacion 5
    Cespedes 4
    Harper 1

  40. Garrett says:
    (link)

    Hey grey,

    Big fan of the site and your analysis of players. I read your top 40 sp’s ranking and drafted Phil Hughes for a $1 in my keeper pool. I loved your Hughes projections but was not too sure how realistic they are although I would love it if they were true. I know he’s similar to homer bailey in terms of age and has the ability to finally put all his skills together but was curious if you could expand a bit on your Hughes blurb

    Thank you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks for the kind words! Phil Hughes was *the* top pitching prospect in the game a few years ago and looked like all of that and a bag of wonderful… If this were 2009, you wouldn’t even question it… He’s only 26 years old right now… Still young enough… Last year his K-rate shot up, walks went down, his velocity went up, his ground balls went up, and he was undue by the homer ball… If he’s healthy, he’s gonna have his best year so far, and be a solid #2…

      • Garrsh says:
        (link)

        @Grey: wow awesome thanks!. I saw his strikeouts were up last year but didnt realize the other stuff you mentioned also.

        I had my keeper pool draft last night and I missed out on two of my must have guys:
        jeff samardzija and hyun-jin Ryu

        my pool has 7 starters and 3 pitchers spots :
        Weaver
        Greinke
        Josh Johnson ( jays)
        Parker
        Harvey
        Shelby Miller
        Mike Fier
        Phil Hughes
        Gerrit Cole
        Derek Holland and Vance Worley

        Any other sleeper pitchers you might reccomed for me to look at ? I am not too happy with Holland and Vance at bottom of my staff

        Thanks!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I don’t know who’s available…

          • Garrsh says:
            (link)

            @Grey: very true. last question and i’ll stop bugging you.

            I am in keeper league and got offered hyun-jin ryu for shelby miller

            I get hyun-jin-ryu.

            hyin -jin ryu is $15
            Shelby Miller is $9

            I read your Shelby Millers posts and your analysis on hyun-jin ryu so I am curious which one you would rather have or if you think I should do it.

            Thanks!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I’d go with Miller…

Comments are closed.