Lonnie Chisenhall, 2012 Fantasy Sleeper
January 20, 2012
Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Look at you getting two posts today, which we will continue until next October. It’s an exciting time to be alive. Kinda like in the 1300′s when doorknobs were invented and people no longer needed to axe down the door to enter their house. So how about those Cleveland Indians brimming with prospects? It’s the biggest Native American bounty since the original Thanksgiving. Fingers crossed these Indians aren’t practically wiped from existence, then almost 400 years later Lonnie Chisenhall‘s great-great grandniece is allowed to open a casino. Lonnie Chisenhall was called up in the middle of last season, like a firefly without a light. In his first full month, he hit two homers and .217, like a slow torch burning. In his 2nd month, he didn’t do much better, like a key that could use a little turning. Seemed like he should’ve been getting somewhere. Then in September, he hit four homers and .279. Like a madman laughing at the rain. If you knew those were Soul Asylum lyrics, pat yourself on the back…with a knife. I’ll take that September month from Chisenhall every day of the week and twice on Muesday if we can get that from him every month next year, but can we? Let’s see what we can expect of Lonnie Chisenhall in 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Chisenhall’s BABIP during his torrid-for-him month of September was .308. That’s close to doable for him, but his walk rate was pathetic last year. In 21 games in August, he didn’t walk once. His K-rate wasn’t great either. So .279 seems doable, but highly unlikely. He looks more like a .250 hitter. In September, his HR/FB was 16.0%, which is a little high for him, making 4 homers per month on the high side, too. For 2012, he’s gonna be more of a 3 to 4 homer per month guy, so you’re looking at between 18-24 homers. The Indians are saying that Jack Hannahan will compete in Spring Training for the 3rd base job with Chisenhall, but that’s just talk to motivate Chisenhall. There’s no way Jack Hannahan will win the starting job unless he brings one of his ligers into the clubhouse and releases it on Chisenhall. Since Lonnie was able to finally start to put it together in September, I’m gonna be optimistic and say he gives us 65/20/80/.250/3. Not exactly rewriting the record books, but more than serviceable if you can get him cheap in your fantasy drafts and he has some upside. Muahahahahaha! Sorry, still laughing like a madman at the rain.
January 20th, 2012 at 11:06 am
Keep ‘em coming, Grey! Love your articles.
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:11 am
I’m high on Chisenhall, and confident that he will tame that liger, and they will start an adventure/comedy series called “Lonnie and the Liger,” wherein they teach each other valuable lessons, such as having patience at the plate. Like this: http://tinyurl.com/87hg77m
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@Derek in Utah: Thanks!
@royce!: Ha! Best stock photo ever.
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:23 am
No-hype player that has only one good year:
Haley’s Vomit
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:24 am
Sorry – Wrong thread
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:31 am
I just realized that this is the perfect setup for the next top 20 grouping (I’m assuming you’re going to do 3B next, and not SS), because the post plus the early rankings and ADPs for 3B beg the question: Chisenhall, Moustakas, or Pedro Alvarez? I’m on the edge of my seat…wait, nope, I fell off. SO EXCITED!!!
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Pat yourself on the back with a knife? How on earth did you get so jaded?
It’s possible Hanananananananan can win the job because Lonnie is a bit of a Dr. Strangeglove and the Indians are like 130% sinkerballers. I heard Acta on the radio the other day and he was pretty convincing in saying the defense needed to be there for Lonnie to break camp.
I like “Peat” for one hit wonders. They’re “Peat” until they repeat.
“I don’t trust him. Seems like peat.”
“Not sure I love it. Have to run it by Rudy”
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@joet: It’s better to post on my newest post. Ha, actually like that but I think Baha Man works better.
@royce!: Ha… Nah, shortstops are next but I did need to get this post out prior to the 3rd basemen.
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@OaktownSteve: Hehe… Yeah, I guess Hanananannannanan could surprise, but it would be a bad move for a club that should play for the future with Chisenhall. Yeah, not crazy about Peat.
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Eagerly awaiting where Mr. Grey will rank Dee Gordon. Upside for sure. Maybe a future Castro?
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:40 am
@Grey: only thing is I think the Indians think they can win now. White Sox moving down, Royals moving up but not all the way, Twins in neutral, Tigers really the team to beat and now VMartless.
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:41 am
Gordon will NEVER hit like Castro. That is not a rape joke. Even I have standards.
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@Derek in Utah: Maybe… Keep refreshing the page until Monday at 12:15 AM when it will magically appear.
@OaktownSteve: Yeah, they could think that, and maybe they will be contenders, but Chisenhall’s future potential is better to play than an older glove. Wouldn’t obviously be the first time a club went against what I think is their best move.
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January 20th, 2012 at 11:59 am
Very Funny!
tip of the cap to Etta James and “I’d rather go blind”…one of the best songs period
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January 20th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
I think Lonnie Chisenhall should hereby be referred to as Lonnie Shizz…
Just cuz.
I like this kid, and I agree with the assessment on the Indians. There pitching just needs to catch up (hopefully Ubaldo helps).
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January 20th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
I need a 2B in a dynasty league and I have two options. Draft Hill or Jemile Weeks OR trade Alex Gordon for Brandon Phillips. Gordon has a 3 year contract but Phillips only has one year. Thoughts?
Thanks!
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January 20th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
I looked it up and his name is really Lonnie. Really, Mr and Mrs C? A mouthful of a surname like that and you go for Lonnie?
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January 20th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
two post day…awesome!
Grey (and others), hoping to get your opinion on something. I’m in the middle of a 10 team 5×5 keeper league slow draft. Currently, my outfield is pretty stacked:
Kemp, Pence, Stanton, Jennings, Heyward
I’m wondering if you think I should look to move Kemp for someone like Votto or Longoria (currently have Konerko and Youkilis, which would slide to CI). There seem to be more 5th OF upside guys out there compared to CI.
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January 20th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Great stuff!!
I’m a middle school english teacher. Your posts are littered with so many similes, hyperbole and subtle wit that I may start using them in my creative writing lessons. Cheers!
Quick question: Better year this year Strasburg or Moore? Thanks.
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January 20th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
@Grey:
@@JoeC:
Sounds like Baha Man is a hit… but I liked onsie. If you count on a repeat from a guy like that and he drops a deuce, you’re stuck with it.
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@Wake Up: Agreed
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Yup
@James: Weeks
@Steve: Ha!
@polczek5: Votto
@Dr. Stats: Thanks for the kind words! Strasburg… Close though.
@centralohguy: Ha, I like when you say it like that.
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January 20th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Aww…Slowey got traded to the Indians. I was really looking forward to streaming any player with the slightest of power against him at Coors. Still got Moscoso, though! (55+% FB rate).
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@royce!: Aw, man, that’s gonna hurt his consensus number one ranked pitcher for Razzball.
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January 20th, 2012 at 3:34 pm
@Grey: Totally! With Carmona’s legal troubles and Lackey’s injury, who will wear the crown? Wade Davis?
Here’s something to stash away for the Razzball draft: of pitchers with 80 IP or more, Moscoso had the highest xFIP (5.02). This was presumably due to his high FB rate and around 6% HR/FB rate. I don’t know if they will use him in the rotation (from what I’ve heard, Nicasio has been recovering well), but if they do, he could be a Razzball ace.
Also, Hellickson’s xFIP was crazy high last year- 4.72- neatly wedging him between Penny and Lackey. I really enjoyed owning Hellickson last year, but that is not very promising. His peripherals look unsettlingly close to that of Clay Buchholz, who I will also not own anywhere.
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January 20th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Im with Mr. Dope Man on the name but Lonnie Shizz would need to be chief for a year for 20 HRs and a .250 BA (which is probably not far from his ceiling)
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January 20th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
@Grey – missed the 2B discussion this morning… but now I see you are ALL OVER Phillips, recommending him to @Jeff in a trade, putting him at 20/17 numbers, etc.
How does that jive with your trade advice earlier this week to dump Phillps($21) for Alonso($5)/Tabata($7)? You pooh-poohed Alonso as barely a top-25 1B playing in Petco in your other column this week, and Tabata will clearly be an afterthought in the rankings for awhile. Yes, I was getting a price break, but we have $300 to spend, and it looks like you have Phillips at near elite and as your #2 overall 2B in the NL. Ouch, was that a change of heart, or are you in cahoots with the guy in my league that just raped me? ;^)
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@royce!: re: Hellickson and Buchholz — It’s like you’re reading over my shoulder as I write the top 60 starters post. Moscoso is quite promising…for Razzball.
@Captainpyper: Ha
@birrrdy!: There was no change of heart. I wrote these posts weeks, some months ago. Isn’t this a keeper league? Phillips is a $21 player and that’s all. You just got two players that you could have for years and you said you needed a long term 1st baseman. Right?
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January 20th, 2012 at 6:04 pm
I think he should go by “chizz-bucket.”
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@Fman99: Nice
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January 20th, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Two postsaday
a better way
to spend your monay
than on that flippin insider EK
support Grey
buy a dacquiri today
A little free marketing jingle for you brought to you by the office staff of the Miracles
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January 20th, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Do we get shortstops tomorrow or am I just being greedy?
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@The Miracles: Thanks for your rhyming wizardry!
@Steve: You’re being greedy, I’m going tonight for my birthday to get blotto.
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January 20th, 2012 at 9:34 pm
@Grey: Drink responsibly.
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January 20th, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Hmmm. Judging from the timestamp my sage advice has probably come too late.
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January 21st, 2012 at 12:52 am
@Grey:
yeah .
i’ll echo the kiwi’s sentiments .
hope you had a safe … and happy birthday .
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January 21st, 2012 at 6:20 am
@Grey:
am in the middle of my 2nd slow mock draft of the off-season .
given my current “condition” , am lucky to get 5-6 hours of sleep per day ,
broken up into 3 naps …(some days , i only get one or 2 naps) .
anywho ,
often , i dream/think of my drafts while i’m napping .
doesn’t that make ME the ultimate fantasy sleeper , at least for this year ??
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January 21st, 2012 at 6:24 am
@Grey:
wait .
am sure some of you hormonal studs have your own “records” going .
but i think i deserve some sort of ‘categorical’ mention .
p.s. DON’T send me a trophy , please !
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January 21st, 2012 at 8:33 am
@OaktownSteve: Oaktown Steve! Champion of Razzball league #11 in 2011 (much to my chagrin!). How are you, loser (winner?)?!
I’m gonna go on record here and shock the world: Royals with cheese win the AL Central this year. I know, I know… mighty words for a team that is used to wearing paper bags on their heads, but they’re certainly on the rise and every other team has fallen off.
Of course they’ll just be mincemeat for the Yanks or Rangers to devour in the playoffs, but I think the good folks in KC would shake their bootys (booties?) all winter long for a division title.
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January 21st, 2012 at 8:47 am
@centralohguy: Thanks, dude!
Not to whine (yet here I go), but I don’t really like “Baha Man”. I, for one, had no idea who they were until someone mentioned the “Who Let the Dogs Out” song they’re responsible for staining my eardrums with.
Usually in these glossary competitions, the winning candidate usually makes sense to me. I can usually see that it’s clearly better than my submission (if I had one) or simply the best one that was offered. In this case I don’t think that’s so. No offense, royce (assuming you’re the REAL royce!).
“Onesie” is best in my opinion because it has a negative, non-masculine connotation. Any man who wears a “onesie” is automatically open for extreme ridicule. “Baha Man” conveys none of that.
Ok, I’ve said my piece. I bow to Grey’s greater wisdom (and fuller ‘stache). Have mercy on me, I’m an Oakland A’s fan. We just signed Jonny Gomes. Yay.
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January 21st, 2012 at 9:38 am
@royce!: C’mon – how do you guys keep forgetting Jamie Moyer?
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January 21st, 2012 at 10:29 am
any brandon allen love? he didnt make your top 20 1st basemen due to sucking?
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January 21st, 2012 at 10:41 am
@Grey: First of all, thanks for all your help. Just trying to understand the inner-workings of The Oracle, so don’t take my questions as ungrateful impetulance!
Totally appreciate your insights, even if those insights happen to change with new info.
To answer your question, yes, it’s a keeper league (NL only). And the elites rule the roost. Phillips has been a keeper the better part of the last decade. He’s no Braun, but he’s been a very serviceable steady keeper. That said, if Alonso is more like LaRoche than Adrian, then I just got hosed – he won’t be a keeper in coming years. You don’t have him as a top-10 1B in the NL (but he does appear to be in your top-15). And there are a lot of guys like Tabata in the draft, unless he becomes more like Bourne or Victorino. I’m still hopeful, and I don’t regret the trade. Phillips may get traded to the AL after this year, and he’s only got about 2-3 keeper years left in him. But your 20/17 prediction got me concerned.
Also, I am getting some trade offers for Alonso. Should I take them? I might be able to land Tommy Hanson ($18) straight up. Pitchers are inherently risky, though. If they get injured, they can be gone for years, possibly careers, and the risk is way higher than with stud hitters. Even Pujols comes back from broken bones in mere weeks! Nobody seems to want Tabata though. So it looks like I’m stuck with him to the draft.
Again, no regrets. Only Storen ($21) went back into the pool. But now my only pitcher out of 8 keepers is Santana ($3), with D.Hudson ($17) waiting in the wings if one of my hitters or Santana falls out. Should I ride with Alonso at $5 as my possible 1B of the future, or should I try to land Hanson? (and whip out the checkbook for Cuddyer in the draft?)
Current keepers are Hanley($31), Wright($26), Dee Gordon($13), Alonso($5), Tabata($7), Holliday($34), Hart($16), Santana($3), and we have $300 to spend on 10 Ps, 13 hitters (8 can be kept). THX!
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@Steve: Ugh, so hungover.
@chata: Thanks!
@charlie batch: He’s a deep league flyer. I’ll probably mention him when I go over flyers in March. Hard to get excited about A’s hitters much like Padres ones. 20+ homers, some speed, .240-ish average.
@birrrdy!: You’re not stuck with Tabata. He’s 23 years old and about to go 10/30/.280 which is Victorino numbers. Alonso is a huge get in a keeper. Phillips has maybe two years left in him counting 2012. The trade was solid. Don’t trade for Hanson.
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January 21st, 2012 at 11:33 am
Judging from your Justin Upton, Longoria and McCutchen rankings, it seems that you value a player being simultaneously young and productive more than I do. I suspect this has a lot to do with my difficulty projecting the “next step forward” for the supreme balls of talent like Justin Upton.
Thus my two questions:
(1) Are there factors you commonly consider when projecting a “next step forward?”
(2) How sure of it do you have to be to price that “next step forward” into your ranking, like you seem to have done with Longoria and Upton?
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January 21st, 2012 at 12:16 pm
@Grey: Sweet. Thanks for the advice and encouragement!
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January 21st, 2012 at 12:44 pm
From Rotoworld. I don’t know why I’m so interested in these weird “injuries” to baseball players but there’s something weird about reading them in the context of the usual hamstring tweaks and sprained ankles.
Nick Markakis expects to ready for opening day, after undergoing “significant” surgery to repair a torn rectus abdominus muscle earlier this month.
“I’m feeling good,” Markakis said. “It’s a sensitive area where I got cut open and as far as pain-wise, I don’t have any pain. It’s just uncomfortable. It’s not being able to do certain things I want to do. It seems like a long recovery, but I know it’s going to be over before I know it and then we’ll be rolling.” Markakis added that he’s doing a lot of pool activity to strengthen his core and that he started to do some light jogging this week. Baseball activities can begin as early as five weeks after the procedure.
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January 21st, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Hey Grey,
I wanted to ask you the other day but forgot: If you prefer not to spend more than $30 on a player in auction leagues, don’t you feel like you’ll miss out on the entire top tier for 1B? Last year I had to spend around $35 for Fielder but still felt it was worth it to lock up the power.
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@james d: 1) guys in the prime of their career that are talented. 2)pretty sure, but even if the guy doesn’t take a step forward he’ll still be valuable, barring injury which you can’t predict unless it’s Glass Chipper.
@birrrdy: no worries…
@Schmohawks Bob:that’s just painful to read…
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@SwaggerJackers: it depends on the league size… In a ten team league, you need some top guys. Fielder at $35 is a solid get so it’s more about not going to $50-something dollars for one player. It’s not hard fast rule… I just prefer to stay under $30…
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January 21st, 2012 at 4:01 pm
@Grey: I hear you. I’m in a 10 team auction with 5 keepers and the best option will be Pujols then it drops to Tex, Konerko, Hosmer, etc. How much would you be willing to shell out for those names I mentioned?
By the way, I have Joey Bats, Tulo and Cano so it’s not like I NEED Pujols or Tex.
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January 21st, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Read your post about you liking Carl crawford this season. Do you like him enough to give up braun in a keeper league for him and kimbrel? Kimbrel loses some value in this 20 team league bc saves/holds are the same cat but I really want those k’s. So send braun for crawford and kimbrel or sit tight? Thanks!
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January 21st, 2012 at 9:27 pm
@Daniel: hell no dont give up braun in a keeper….
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January 21st, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Aww. I’m drafting him everywhere.
http://nzh.tw/10780274
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January 22nd, 2012 at 7:50 am
@Grey:
so , let’s say that this cuban rookie , yoenis cespedes , lies about his age ,
in order to get out of cuba , and says he’s 26 , when , in fact , he’s only 20 .
now , in order to enter mlb , he has to take up residency in the dominican republic .
while there , he hooks up with a buscone , who , in order to market him to
major league teams , lies about his age and says that he’s 19 years old .
do you have a glossary term for THAT ??
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January 22nd, 2012 at 8:12 am
Scutaro is the Rockies starting 2B now. What a crockpot of shizz. Young could easily have 60 SB if he was given a season of PA. I’m not sure if that would make him valuable overall to the Rockies, but I just don’t care. I WANT 60 SB FROM MY 2B!!!
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@SwaggerJackers: $29
@Daniel: I don’t like Crawford anymore with the wrist issue.
@Steve: Aw
@chata: Latin-something
@royce!: Yeah, Young’s never gonna be a starter on the Rockies. He must’ve pissed off someone.
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January 22nd, 2012 at 10:01 am
What’s the feeling on Wainwright this year? Just took him at about 115 in my 16-team slow mock-and-lock draft as my #2 starter…
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@Steve: I’m not going near him.
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January 22nd, 2012 at 10:20 am
OK then…
Living life on the edge!
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January 22nd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Happy Sunday Grey! Not sure if you’re checking this comment section today, but I was thinking of player combinations today (after I did a few mock drafts this weekend), and I was wondering if you could bestow some fantasy knowledge on me? Assuming a ten-team mixed league 5×5 roto-style that starts 2 catchers, 5 OFs, and 9 total pitchers, which three player combo would you rather have (from 1-3, similar draft range)? McCann-Choo-Marcum, Bruce-Wieters-Marcum, Strasburg-Choo-Soto, or Strasburg-Wieters-Duda? Thanks!
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January 22nd, 2012 at 1:42 pm
happy belated b-day Grey the almighty.
Although i didn’t know it was your bday weekend until this morning, i celebrated last night for you… horribly hungover today.
god bless delivery food.
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January 22nd, 2012 at 4:03 pm
@Grey:
check this :
http://www.neatorama.com/2011/12/21/frog-plays-video-game-avenges-himself-upon-human/
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@Big Magoo: Bruce/Wieters/Marcum
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Thanks!
@chata: Hehe
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January 23rd, 2012 at 11:49 am
@Schmohawks Bob:
Why is this so funny? The rectus abdominal muscle has nothing to do with the rectum. It’s the six-pack, dude (or “The Situation” if you’re into that sort of thing).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rectus_abdominis_muscle
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