Comments on: Lineup Position Impact on Runs & RBI

By: kangaroo hops

kangaroo hops — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 07:51:03 +0000

Is there any real statistical proof to the idea of protection of a big hitter? It sounds great in theory, but I have read sources (e.g., Paul Dickson in his Baseball Dictionary) who claim that there is no convincing evidence that protection makes any difference. Hey, not THAT type of protection! You know what I mean.

By: Derek Carty

Derek Carty — Sat, 23 May 2009 04:49:20 +0000

Gotcha, Rudy. My main concern is a selection bias issue. The player who an MLB manager decides to put in the clean-up spot is not a random exercise. While managers don’t perfectly optimize lineups, they aren’t stupid either. You would never find Jose Molina batting clean-up for the Yankees or Fernando Tatis for the Mets. The guys who hit clean-up are big boppers, so I don’t think it’s fair to say that moving *anyone* to the cleanup spot would lead to a 33% increase in RBI. That 33% is being driven by the likes of Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn, and moving Alex Gonzalez into the spot wouldn’t produce the same result.

However, this won’t always be of any concern to fantasy owners as the reason for the selection bias also means that we won’t have to worry about it much; these non-boppers won’t be moving into the cleanup spot. Still, if a borderline player gets moved into the spot ever, or if we look at murkier situations like the #2, #5, or #6 spots, we might run into some trouble.

Still, very interesting stuff, Rudy.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 21 May 2009 13:05:24 +0000

@Derek Carty: Good point on the fact that player speed isn't taken into account for Runs or RBIs. I imagine that this would slightly boost the Runs for spots with typically fast runners and the RBIs for those hitting in middle of lineup spots. As for RBI, one way would be to look at RBI opportunities. I've never seen that data in aggregated form by lineup position, though. So I went with (RBI-HR)/(H-HR) which assumes that getting a hit during non-RBI opportunities is the same skill as getting a hit during RBI opportunities. AL cleanup hitters have a ratio of .53 RBIs/Non-HR Hits while leadoff hitters have a ratio of .31. While speed of baserunners and double/triple-rates play small roles that I was unable to factor, I think this disparity is near exclusively driven by lineup position.

By: Derek Carty

Derek Carty — Thu, 21 May 2009 06:22:30 +0000

Well aware I’m late to this party, but this is very interesting stuff, Rudy. A quick question, though: you say that this is all skill-independent, but could you explain how that’s the case for RBI? I see you explained Runs in #6 (though there is some selection bias in that fast runners bat lead-off more often and thus are the guys on base). For RBI, though, I’m assuming you’re looking at RBI opportunities (i.e. someone is on base), but wouldn’t the skills of the hitter come into play when determining whether the runner is driven in? It’s late, so please excuse me if I’m missing the obvious answer here.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 06 May 2009 14:25:55 +0000

@Dingo: Thanks. I figure it’s a lot easier to spell out the math and the assumptions behind an analysis than have people ask questions afterwards. And explaining it in plain English is a good way of testing whether the analysis was correct in the first place.

As for Granderson, you’re completely right. Hitting 5th will knock his Runs down considerably (25%). And Granderson is an average OBP guy (~.360) so he won’t outperform at that lineup position (his speed should help a little). On the positive side, it’s always easier to trade HR/RBI than it is to trade R/SB. So if Granderson keeps up his crazy HR pace, you’ll have no shortage of buyers….

By: Dingo

Dingo — Wed, 06 May 2009 14:10:19 +0000

I also wanted to add that I really appreciated how you clearly explained the complicated analysis that you conducted. Too many baseball statheads have a hard time translating their statistical wizardry into plain English for the rest of us to understand, but I found your explanation to be surprisingly easy to follow.

Unfortunately, your findings are making me feel like my newly-acquired Curtis Granderson is not going to be the savior for my Runs deficit, now that Leyland is talking about keeping him in the #5 spot for a while.

By: Griff

Griff — Wed, 06 May 2009 04:52:41 +0000

@Drev: Even if Billingsley wins the CY Young, I gotta believe Hamels and Kazmir will be worth it in the end. Hamels's injuries have been as much bad luck as physical breakdown, IMO, and Kazmir can't stay this bad.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 06 May 2009 04:48:44 +0000

@Drev: I like C-Bills best of the three but that's only b/c Hamels seems snake-bitten. If you need SP, I would definitely make this deal. You're getting 2 top 25 pitchers for the price of one...

By: Drev

Drev — Wed, 06 May 2009 04:45:17 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: I'd like your thoughts on Billingsley, Hamels, and Kazmir for the rest of the season; I've been offered Hamels and Kazmir for Billingsley. Thanks.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 06 May 2009 03:27:52 +0000

@AL KOHOLIC: Thanks! @Prince: You're welcome. And I wouldn't drop any of those 3 for Galarraga unless you're talking about somehow resurrecting Andres Galarraga when he was mashing in Colorado...