Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

What is this, the 50th Razzball post on Desmond Jennings?  Cute, Random Italicized Voice.  All I can say is my love never peters for Jennings.  (<– Cheeky!)  Let’s look at some of things I’ve said in the past about Desmond Jennings.  “Desmond Jennings was elected Sheriff of Fantasy Baseball Heartthrob Town and finally arrested The Zodiac Killer…. Jennings has three nipples.  The third nipple won this year’s Project Runway…. Jennings will be in the first class of the Hall of Fame with Babe Ruth, Cy Young and Ty Cobb because they’ll close up Cooperstown after the Mayan apocalypse then reopen with a whole new first class.  New baseball, as it will be known, will have seventeen third basemen on the field at once and will be played with a ball called a Pfft.” On top of all that!  Jennings had a solid rookie year.  Let’s take a looksie.  In 287 plate appearances, he hit 10 homers with 20 steals while batting .259.  He was cooking with gas until he burped through September hitting only .160 with 2 homers and 2 steals.  So, yeah, he basically did all that 2011 damage in August (7 homers, 9 steals, .333 average in 108 ABs).  But enough of this preambling around, what can we expect of Desmond Jennings for next year, and what makes him a 2012 fantasy baseball keeper?

What makes him a 2012 fantasy keeper?  Do you hear yourself, Introductory Paragraph?  Is that rhetorical?  He’s the Sheriff of Fantasy Baseball Heartthrob Town!  In 2012, Jennings can be B.J. Upton without the razztastic average.  His 10 homers in two and a half months seems to be on the upper reaches for next year.  A 7 homer month is a lot.  Averaging three homers per month seems about right.  The steals aren’t going to go anywhere.  For hitters with at least 280 plate appearances, Jennings was the 6th fastest according to Bill James’s speed score, just ahead of Michael Bourn.  Doode’s fast.  The fickle pickle in all of this is the batting average.  A .300 hitter in 2012 he won’t be, but he won’t be a sub-.200 hitter either without a whole lot of bad luck.  In the month of September when he looked lost, he had a horrendous .195 BABIP, which was the 2nd worst in the entire league for hitters with 100 plate appearances.  (Of course, in his crazy good month of August, his BABIP was on the opposite side of the tilt.)  If all of that normalizes, he’s gonna be a .275 hitter next year.  So for 2012, I see his line close to 80/16/65/.275/35 with upside on the power and speed and downside on the runs and average.  Whether he gets priced out of the market in redraft leagues, we’ll have to wait and see on, but he’s definitely a 2012 fantasy baseball keeper.  Now excuse me so his third nipple can make me a ball gown for the 2012 People’s Choice Awards.

73 Responses

  1. So jennings over tex, napoli or carp? Other keepers are Kershaw, tulo, upton, pujols

  2. cruisinkc says:
    (link)

    Would you keep Jennings over Matt Holliday?

  3. chata says:
    (link)

    when i first started to read this article , the thought occurred to me that your RIV is really your Random Italicized DEMON Voice ,
    but now , i will assume that role .
    looksie = look-see , for those that won’t accept a contemporary spelling .
    (no biggie) .
    but , confusing 2012 for 2011 (<= your last 2 usages) makes me wonder if
    you are confused .
    getting through to the crux of your article (the projections) , clearly
    you are not .
    sadly , in one of my keeper leagues , he makes my list , and i will need him
    to perform as a 'top 108' player .
    oh well , there's always NEXT year (2013) .

    sorry for being THAT guy .

  4. mc serch says:
    (link)

    So where does he go in a redraft league? I’m probs gonna sit this one out…wouldnt be comfortable going into season with him as my first or second OF…..if he’s around in the 6th round I might bite (that’s where I snatched up A. McCutchen as my 3rd OF last year), but he’ll probs go earlier than that unless his spring traning looks like a continuation of his September.

  5. Tony says:
    (link)

    @mc serch: im pretty sure i asked about jennings a week or two ago and grey said something like 5-6th round…. after getting screwed over by an investment in Heyward this past year a “cant miss young guy” i dont know if Im buying into this guy, not that early…. thats right around in a draft where i’ll be taking my #1 sp…… Jennings will be a stud, maybe, but taking him in the 5th or 6th, you better go to church and pray…. feels too early too me…..

    How did you get mccutch in the 6th round, 10 team league? He went in the 3rd round of both of my 12 teamers…. early 3rd.

  6. Chris says:
    (link)

    Funny you should mention that, mc serch.

    @Grey:

    I may be forced to make this decision in a limited keeper…

    McCutchen (for up to 2 more years) or Jennings (for up to 3)? No pick penalty, etc.

  7. royce! says:
    (link)

    What about jeggings? I can still get behind them. Heyo!

    Seriously, Jennings’ August/September BABIP (and therefore AVG) difference is interesting because it seems to be a lot about what his HR/FB ratio was up to. In Aug, it was 25%, and in Sept., it was down to 3. (His IFFB rate also went from 3 to 10.)

    Other players with a HR/FB ratio around 3 in 2011 were Crapolanco, Escobar, Callaspo, Infante. Are we right to think that Jennings does not fit in this group? In 458 2010 AAA PAs, he had 3 HR.

    Or has Jennings always been one of those guys that people expect to develop more power as they get older?

  8. Eddie says:
    (link)

    Jennings is sure to go down in history as the best Blernsball player of all time.

  9. 44jaydog says:
    (link)

    Random Italicized Bold Named Voice? Here’s my prediction for the next Jennings article (Tomorrow’s) – Grey finds himself control-U and loses all self respect with, Random Italicized Underlined Bold Named Voice!? Can’t wait. Yeah no really, I can’t.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @El guey: Over Carp

    @cruisinkc: Nope

    @chata: Oops, typo-typo.

    @mc serch: 5th to 7th sounds about right for where he could be drafted. It’s a bit rich.

    @Chris: McCutchen

    @royce!: He should develop some power, doesn’t look like a 30 homer hitter, but neither did Ellsbury.

    @Eddie: ha!

  11. BHH says:
    (link)

    Jennings over Heyward in a dynasty league?

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @BHH: Tough call, I would.

  13. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    I see Jennings as a Stubbs-type player and I have had him at 90 15 45 .275 40. So, pretty close to yours with a few more runs and less rbi.
    Do you agree with the Stubbs comparison?
    Do you expect 30 HRs from Ellsbury again? I don’t.
    Did you experience unbelievable pyrosis from Brisket for Breakfast? I did.

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Wake Up: Stubbs is a .230 to .260 hitter, Jennings is a .250 to .280 hitter. Of course luck plays into that but Stubbs is going to have a worse average than him by a decent amount 9 out of 10 times. Stubbs is also a tad higher than Jennings on steals and power for 2012. Not saying they can’t be the same but I’d trust Stubbs to get more power and speed than Jennings if they saw the same amount of ABs. Brisket for breakfast is fine as long as you have a fried egg back.

  15. mc serch says:
    (link)

    @Tony: I misspoke…i got A. McCutchen in mid 5th round in 12 teamer, 11th OF off the Board which sounds about right since AM was still something of a question mark himself going into last year….not sure your league-mate got good value for AM in 3rd rd. as he ended up 17th ranked OF and 54 overall at Yahoo….either way, AM mostly panned out and Heyward mos def didn’t, but if someone with a hot tub time machine told me in March that it would work out the other way around I would not have been surprised.

  16. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I agree that Stubbs will most likely have less of an Avg. and more power. But, given around the same PA’s, I think Jennings probably gets more steals next year.
    Ellsbury still an enigma wrapped in a mystery inside a horse-meat chimichanga?

  17. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    @mc serch: Don’t mean to but in butt, I think Heyward bounces back in a big way and McCutchen takes another step forward next year.

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Wake Up: Ellsbury is a 20 homer guy, plus or minus 5 that just had a career year.

  19. royce! says:
    (link)

    I managed to skip over Jennings’ 2011 AAA production (12 HR, 37 SB), so for all of 2011 he had 22 HR & 54 SB, making your projection entirely reasonable.

  20. Marty Funkhouser says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Was the “cooking with gas” thing a Boardwalk Empire reference? If it was, great stuff. If not, odd coincidence but still great stuff. That line stuck out to me this weekend for some reason. Along with Chalky’s/Omar’s dinner meltdown.

  21. Marty Funkhouser says:
    (link)

    @Grey: …Mistake. Just remembered that line was from at least two episodes ago. My mental timeline, it is jumbled.

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @royce!: If nothing else, I’m reasonable. I love Desmond Jennings!

    @Marty Funkhouser: Cooking with gas is a fairly common idiom. I haven’t seen the latest Boardwalk episode. I wanna love the show, but just haven’t been.

  23. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    Where’s the spoiler warning? Viktor was robbed?! Oh… just kidding… I see. Yeah, I don’t watch the show, either. Umm…

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Awesomus Maximus: Most disturbing thing from the last Real World? The scenes from last week when they showed balled up deodorant in Frank’s armpit.

    @VinWins: Very interesting, thanks for sharing!

  25. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Yuck… happy to report I missed that nugget. I’m distracted by his never ending supply of heinous shirts and headbands whenever he’s on screen. It looks like he was gang-raped by a Color Me Badd video.

    Speaking of crazy… Hantz has got to be the scariest loon to ever play Survivor, no? He’s at least up there with Matthew from The Amazon, who spent most of his season sharpening his machete and learning Swedish.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Awesomus Maximus: Yeah, a leopard headband shouldn’t be worn outside of a safari or an 80′s music video. Hantz is the looniest loon we’ve ever seen on the show. He’s actually uncomfortable to watch and you can’t wait to see what he’s going to do next. He’s gold, Jerry! Next season, bring on Russell’s 3 day sober uncle, or his mom or someone in his family. The Hantzes are money.

    @chata: How did you find that? I couldn’t even find it in Google after knowing to look for it. Doesn’t look like it’s ever getting made.

  27. Marty Funkhouser says:
    (link)

    @Doc: Boardwalk has moments of greatness in between stretches of cabbage. Love Steve Buscemi though. And I’d honestly never heard “cooking with gas” until I saw it on that show. Think I definitely would have remembered it. Sounds like something that would still be thrown around a lot here in Texas.

    The ratio of baseball questions to random questions has shifted dramatically recently. Do you enjoy the drop in repetitive “Who should I cut Napoli for?”-type posts this time of year or do you feel the need to be called upon as the ever-patient mustachioed fantasy baseball messiah that you are?

  28. chata says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    http://seamheads.com/

    these folks are doing good stuff with the negro leagues database .

    also , some good blog-talk programming here .
    mike lynch is the guy in charge … in case you wanted try your show
    with him … <= would immediately increase your audience .
    cust .

  29. Marty Funkhouser says:
    (link)

    @Grey******

    Good god I’m mixed up. Was reading comments on the darker side of the Razzball site when I started typing that. Got all kinds of mixed up. Terribly sorry sir.

  30. chata says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    did you click on the script link ?

    also , the expression ‘cooking with gas’ is as old as the hills , here
    in new england .
    then again , i commented to the cashier , at the supermarket , not to
    put all my eggs in one basket , and she had never heard of that and
    actually asked me what it meant .
    i think it might be because people spend too much time texting and
    not enough time talking .
    but then again , i’m not hip to the new jargon .

  31. black_toshiba says:
    (link)

    @grey couple questions for you on this beautiful Saturday
    Q1.) how do you feel about Kendry Morales this year?(if he does play) think he puts up a line of 25HRs 80RBIs & .265AVg?
    Q2.) what’s your outlook for Jordan Zimmerman this coming year?
    Thanks

  32. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Make it a Hantz Family Reunion vs. All-Stars season and I’ll be there. I’d love to see a whole group of those hedgehogs scurrying around an island searching for idols, plotting and scheming. And make sure Sugar is on the All-Star team, please (and don’t vote her out first episode this time)… best, season, ever.

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Marty Funkhouser: It’s definitely a bit of a dated expression. The kids aren’t exactly saying cooking with gas. Probably why it was in Boardwalk because the expression was popular 80 years ago. I enjoy talking about other things, for sure.

    @chata: Gotcha

    @Marty Funkhouser: Huh?

    @chata: Yup, very old expression.

    @black_toshiba: After being burned by Morneau this year, and thinking Kendrys was supposed to play this year, I wouldn’t go near him. If healthy, sure those numbers seem possible. I like Zimmermann, solid #2.

    @Awesomus Maximus: I enjoy me some Sugar, as well. Hantz Family Reunion could be a show on its own. I don’t think they need a million dollar prize for conniving.

  34. Marty Funkhouser says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Just being dumb. I typed @Doc to start my first response because I was in the process of reading way too many football comments from the other part of this site and that name kind of seeped into my mind and out my fingertips.

    What do you think of all the hullabaloo over Elvis Andrus’ two plays in the field on Thursday? Great plays, or greatest plays ever? (Overly biased/slightly intoxicated Rangers fan, although that glove flip truly was a thing of beauty.)

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Marty Funkhouser: Ah…Didn’t even catch you put @Doc… Everything in today’s day in age is the greatest plays ever. It’s the era of the greatest everything ever. They were nice plays. Ozzie Smith made some of the greatest plays ever.

  36. Steve says:
    (link)

    It’s a huge day for Rugby. That is all.

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Kinda big day for the Cards too.

  38. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: There’s baseball on? (emoticon)

  39. chata says:
    (link)

    somebody tell tim mccarver to stfu

  40. Terrence Mann says:
    (link)

    Grey, since we’re fb friends, I’ll admit right here that my most recent status “My Trapper Keeper is covered with I <3 Josh Hamilton" is stolen.

  41. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    ¡Señor Octubre!

  42. Steve says:
    (link)

    Pujols has what it takes to be an All Black.

  43. Steve says:
    (link)

    Finally.

  44. royce! says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Wall Street Journal is saying that you and your countrymen have sent into “an unbridled frenzy.” Unless you’re being terse in order to save your energy for the frenzy, it appears your frenzy is very much bridled.

    Congratulations.

  45. chata says:
    (link)

    perhaps the best use of instant replay would be to assess umpire
    errors (rather than over-rule their decisions) .

    the intent , here , would be to more accurately score unearned runs .

    feedback ?

  46. Feeding the Abscess

    Feeding the Abscess says:
    (link)

    Are you sure that your love doesn’t peter for Jennings?

    Microsoft Sam laugh alert: Hahohahohahohahohaho

    Since I kind of threw a Beavis and Butthead joke in this post, I’ve got to say, the “Is this the Housewives of Detroit” crack/promo I saw on TV the other night has me STOKED for B&B’s return.

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @chata: I can’t imagine anyone being against that… In fact, I’m not 100% positive, but like 99% that is already in place. The league office does review umpires. I think the umpire union is very strong though, so senority always wins out. If an ump has been doing his job for say 15 years, they’re put in big games like the World Series.

    @Feeding the Abscess: Ha! Hadn’t heard about the Real Housewives of Detroit, but that does sound wonderful.

  48. Josh says:
    (link)

    I had a stacked team this year who ran the table in the league until the stupid H2H playoffs when 2 bad weeks ended it. Pick 5 keepers:

    Kemp, MCab, Prince, Kinsler, Andrus, Wright, Pence, Stanton, Verlander, Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann.

    I was thinking Kemp, Prince, MCab, Verlander, and either Stanton or Strasburg…

  49. Terrence Mann says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Talent borrows. Genius steals.

  50. chata says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    yeah , but …. and i forget the name of the texas pitcher , when the 1st
    base ump blew the tag-out double play …. if i had that pitcher , as a fantasy
    baseball owner , i don’t want my pitcher charged with that earned run .
    and in the real world , i would think the pitcher would appreciate not being charged for the run , also .

  51. chata says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    oops .
    i was going to follow that up by saying that neither me nor my pitcher
    would give a damn if kinsler got charged with an error or not ….
    all we’re bitching about is the earned run .

    but then , it dawned on me that if kinsler was charged with an error ,
    then the run would be unearned , anyway .

    but , and i could be mistaken here , wasn’t the play ruled a fielder’s
    choice ? …. it was a lot of runs ago , so i’m not really sure .
    but , damn it , don’t deny me my freedom of bitch .

  52. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    Meh… I’m against instant replay all around. I enjoy the human element in baseball, and do not look forward to the day when there’s no home plate ump, and balls/strikes are called by lasers and computers.

    Put more effort into cleaning up and speeding up the game instead, please.

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Josh: Stanton

    @Terrence Mann: Hey, that’s my line!

    @chata: It was a fielder’s choice. I don’t think things need to change for unearned runs, things balance themselves out. Sometimes guys get off when a fielder is charged with a tough error.

    @Awesomus Maximus: Agreed

  54. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    When’s the last time Ron Washington was tested? Doode’s got a bit too much energy, even for someone in the World Series.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Awesomus Maximus: Ron, “What do you mean?” *rubs nose, licks teeth, rubs gums*

  56. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Selig, “Ron, can you please stop running in place for a moment and sit down. We need to talk.”

  57. black_toshiba says:
    (link)

    @grey got a prospect question for ya
    Jay Jackson or Chris Carpenter
    Who is the better prospect or the Cubs?

  58. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    @Grey: “Did you say ‘I was baking a coke‘?”

  59. royce! says:
    (link)

    @Awesomus Maximus: A little late to the conversation, but I concur as well.

  60. royce! says:
    (link)

    Edwin Jackson: “Damn, I would’ve just walked him.”

    I want to say good luck getting Napoli for cheap next year, but considering the amount of “should I drop Napoli for…” questions this year, I’m thinking I’ll just pick him up off of waivers.

  61. royce! says:
    (link)

    Where’s Steve? All Blacks bender?

  62. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    Holland’s performance almost makes up for his mustache… almost.

  63. Steve says:
    (link)

    @royce!: I’m here. Public holiday today, so just been hanging with the fam, watching the victory parade on TV, that kind of shizz.

    Not too much revelry – just overwhelming relief. We haven’t won this thing in 24 years, despite being the best rugby team in the world for the best part of that time.

    And we only won by a point…

  64. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Labour Day, in case you’re wondering – not in honor of the All Blacks (emoticon).

  65. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
    (link)

    @Grey: We’re only as sexy as our weakest mustache, and that thing is pretty weak.

    Did Ozzie Guillen wander off the ESPN Deportes set? Hombre’s knockin’ the cover off of the English language!

  66. ChillmanCometh says:
    (link)

    Grey, I’ve got a keeper quandry.

    Ten team 5×5 league, each team keeps four players, and essentially we all start the draft in round 5 (which we call the 1st). My keepers are Tulo, CarGo, Ryan Zimmerman, and Miguel Cabrera.

    A trade proposal that has been extended to me is Halladay, Jennings and 3rd for Tulo.

    Insane to not accept this or does Tulo carry that much clout?

  67. River Dawg says:
    (link)

    I like Jennings and think he can make your projections, but I need pitching and Cole Hamels has been offered for him, which side you taking?

Comments are closed.