Yeah, mostly just pointing out that the increase in walks neither shocks or worries me. I’m more encouraged by the fact that the Ks are still up than discouraged that the walks are.

Also keep in mind both his K/9 and BB/9 are artificially inflated by the high BABIP. They’re both up, but not as drastically as the “/9″ rates indicate. If you give him a .320 BABIP, a few quick calculations indicate that yields about a 36.2 xIP (since more outs per batter faced means fewer batters per inning, so facing 154 batters would span a larger number of innings) and around 32 xHits. That would make his xK/9 around 10.9, xBB/9 around 2.4, and xWHIP would go all the way down to 1.15 (since we’d both be reducing his hit total and increasing his outs and therefore innings total). They’d all be even lower if you drop his BABIP to .300 (didn’t run the numbers on that since, like many minor leaguers, his career BABIP is on the higher side, but my guess is it’d go to around 10.6, 2.3, and 1.10 or so).

I hope you’re wrong about his ETA. I could see him coming up around the break this year, but at the same time he has only 100 upper level innings so far and the Padres have no reason to rush him to the show. I don’t doubt he’ll show up by September, but this isn’t like the Royals last year when they called up Hosmer, Duffy, and Moustakas so they could show off all their shiney hyped prospects to sell tickets. Not that Erlin doesn’t have that hype, but the Royals system on the whole was so over-touted last year that it seemed like they were trying to take advange of that perception every step of the way, despite remaining stuck in a state of competitive futility.

And he’s also no Matt Moore, even with the gaudy numbers he doesn’t pass the “eye test” in the same way and won’t have the chance to dominate the Yankees and Rangers in pressure packed starts in September and the playoffs. I’m hoping at worst he’ll be viewed more like the way Jeremy Hellickson was viewed heading into 2011–a guy you can get in the 175-200 pick range in mixed leagues, depending on how aggressive you want to be.

Ideally, you want guys who will be called up and contribute this year, (I had Myers and Middlebrooks at the start of the season). If not, then high potential guys who will be up next year who you can use as trade bait at this year’s deadline.

Starling Marte
Jake Odorizzi
Kolton Wong
Jon Singleton
Matt Davidson
James Paxton
Travis Snider

My guess is the hitters in Double-A just have no idea what to do with his changeup, so they’re being super-patient deep in counts, leading to more walks but also more called third strikes.

He’s shaping up to be one of my favorite sleepers in next year’s drafts, assuming he doesn’t come up earlier than expected this year and wow everyone.