Comments on: Kemp, #6 Hitter?

By: bostonaccent

bostonaccent — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 05:33:55 +0000

@IowaCubs: Baseball reference, yes; I only crib from the best. Ellis jumped out at me as a true comp from watching him in Boston. Let's hope Matt's speed doesn't disappear as suddenly. @Baron Von Vulturewins: Similar ceilings, but admittedly the floor on Upton is a lot lower. I suppose Kemp is just a spring "worked out with UltraSuper ProSports in the offseason" story away from being a mortal lock for 30+ homers. But if he becomes boring in a Carlos Lee sort of way, sign me up twice as fast... Meanwhile, the big five atop the draft is down to the big four. And someone please convince me that Reyes couldn't easily put up Upton '08 numbers in that big park and with a slightly balky hammy/back/asdrubal?

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 04:24:42 +0000

@Steve: True that, got him for 7 last year. And more telling of his value, out of 25 players I drafted last year, only 9 were on my final roster. Loney made the cut. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Sherlock.

By: Steve

Steve — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 04:12:32 +0000

@BigFatHippo: You can do a lot worse at CI. At the right price of course.
Go easy on the new guy

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 03:57:29 +0000

@Steve: No, Loney is what he is, which is to say, blahtastic. He'll hit lots of doubles, won't hurt your team, won't help your team. Can ya tell I had him last year? And what the hell am I doing giving you advice? You're a rival now, spend 40 bucks on him, go ahead I dare you.

By: Steve

Steve — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 03:36:34 +0000

That’s gotta boost Loney’s value, no?

By: Grey

Grey — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 02:56:05 +0000

@big o: I think it was cortisone shot-fueled. @johnson: Hmm... That's interesting. Thanks for that. So that could mean... Furcal Hudson Manny Loney Kemp Ethier Martin Which would leave Kemp batting 5th. @Tony Y: He's not Corey Hart. Kemp doesn't have great plate discipline, but Corey Hart is atrocious.

By: Tony Y

Tony Y — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 02:47:22 +0000

someone needs to talk to torre, fantasy baseball depends on it…

By: Tony Y

Tony Y — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 02:45:55 +0000

man kemp is one of those guys i am coveting, but i just hope he’s not Corey Hart in disguise? Whats wrong with corey hart? Oh he was just hyped about this much last year and yeah he did go 20/20 but the .268 batting average was not something to write home about…. I jsut dont see how torre could bat a guy this talented and speedy in the 6 hole. I know the post is speculative, but it also could very easily happen. Its kinda crazy thinking my 4th round pick could bat 6th in a NL west line up????? Seriously? KEMP should bat 2nd or 3rd, and if Eithier is batting 3rd is that not saying he should be bumped way up? Seriously with manny behind him?

By: johnson

johnson — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 00:09:52 +0000

orlando hudson was interviewed this afternoon on mlb on xm. he said torre told him he would be hitting second in the lineup. i guess that means martin hits 5th and kemp down to 7th. that is until may 1st when furcal gets hurt and is out for the season. then maybe kemp moves to leadoff. but anywhere he hits he should produce given the strength of the lineup.

By: big o

big o — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:54:53 +0000

upton’s power surge during the play-offs last year could very well have been aided by a cortisone shot .
i’ve been huge on him from the start of his career .
now , i’m going to skip a year .
a premier talent , no doubt , but shoulders take a long time to heal … and even longer to get strong .

obviously , manny’s presence will increase the fantasy value of nearly everyone in that line-up .
i’m not suggesting that ethier is a better hitter than kemp .
but i do think his value increases more , if he sticks in that 3rd spot .
a whole lot more .
but , he will have a built-in excuse to not run .
so , in the final analysis , he’s still going to be required to put the bat on the ball …. and , increase his walk rate .

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:23:56 +0000

@DrGravitee: I have him projected at: 80/17/75/.290/5

By: DrGravitee

DrGravitee — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:31:07 +0000

Ethier is being drafted, on average, 164.8 in Y! mock drafts in 2009. Last year, the player who was 165th in standard Y! leagues had stats like this: 79 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB .280 AVG. That seems doable for Ethier in 2009, right?

By: Colin

Colin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:13:42 +0000

Thanks Grey. Always appreciate your Roto-wisdom.

By: Baron Von Vulturewins

Baron Von Vulturewins — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:08:48 +0000

@bostonaccent: Your gambling analogies are about right. Consider: every postseason there’s some player who goes on a tear (no pun intended). I wouldn’t jump to project it out over 162 ’09 games.

Obviously it’s good strategy to target a few guys who should/could improve. But don’t count too much on maybes and possiblies. I got stung hard last year by betting wrong on a bunch of “break-outs”, including Beej, Rios, Zimmerman and (ugh) Frenchy. Just make sure to look at what they’ve recently done and think, “If they simply do that again, could I live with that at this draft position?”

Hamilton in the 11th last year was the steal of the draft. Hamilton in the first this year is simply even money, like betting $100 to win $100.

So Beej in the 2nd round means he pretty much has to improve on last year to make him worth the pick. That, to me, is too risky. I hope he’s better this year; I like him. I just won’t own him.*

*Last year he was much more attractive to me as a 2B. As the 4th or 5th OF off the board? Before Beltran or Carlos Lee? No, thank you. Take Beltran, then take Kemp in the 4th.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:59:34 +0000

@Colin: Scherzer isn't worth keeping in a league as small as yours, McLouth and Victorino are more balanced in other ways, Manny's getting up there in years and his motivation isn't always there, McLouth and Victorino are in their prime. Though I didn't know your league was OBP from your above comment. In the end, it's your team and the trade isn't a slam dunk. I'd do it, but you don't have to if you don't want.

By: Colin

Colin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:50:18 +0000

Grey, what is your reasoning? Am I more balanced? We are a 6×6 league and use Avg. and OBP. I would be taking a huge hit losing Manny and that .300+ average and .400+ OBP.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:45:57 +0000

@Colin: Do the trade and draft Fielder and Peavy. @Lou: Yup. @Pops: I'd take them Beltran, Holliday, Kemp then Markakis, in that order. @IowaCubs: Yeah, it is.

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:41:01 +0000

For the record, it’s nice to see so many new people posting on this site this year.

By: Pops

Pops — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:34:59 +0000

Due to keepers and current draft order, I’ve targeted this group as potential first outfielder. Most likely to exceed their ESPN ADP and keep their owner (the royal me) happy?

Markakis (21)
Beltran (24)
Holliday (26)
Kemp (31)

By: Pops

Pops — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:34:39 +0000

Due to keepers and current draft order, I’ve targeted this group as potential first outfielder. Most likely to exceed their ESPN ADP and keep their owner (the royal) me happy?

Markakis (21)
Beltran (24)
Holliday (26)
Kemp (31)

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:32:37 +0000

@bostonaccent: Very nice analogy, though he reminds me of a spry Enos Slaughter.

Interesting that Baseball Reference names Burks as one of Kemp’s closest comparables, and Markakis as his most similar comp.

“On the ball field he is perpetual motion itself. He would run through a brick wall, if necessary, to make a catch, or slide into a pit of ground glass to score a run.” – Arthur Daley, NY Times describing Enos Slaughter.

By: Lou

Lou — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:27:34 +0000

Off Topic Alert! In your experience, what is the standard NL and AL only format? Still 14 batters/9 pitchers?

By: Colin

Colin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:15:04 +0000

Speaking of Manny, Grey I posted in the forums about a trade offer I got. I was wondering if you could clear things up about your opinion. The deal was I give Manny for McLouth plus I get his 4th rounder and I give my 6th rounder (he drafts 1st and I’m last – we’re 7 teams) in our NL-only league whereby we keep 8 players each. So 56 players are gone before the draft starts. If I do this deal, I can replace Manny with McLouth and Scherzer with Victorino. My 8 keepers will look like this going in:

Braun, Kemp, Upton, Doumit, Gonzalez, Bruce, McLouth, Victorino. If I keep Manny and Scherzer, it allows me to draft Beltran and Fielder. But if I do the deal, I can’t draft Beltran as I will have no OF room. So I’ll be looking at drafting Fielder and I guess Peavy or Billingsley…the two top pitchers available. If I keep Manny and Scherzer, I can draft Beltran and Fielder back to back and have a VERY strong offense, and hopefully grab some pitching gems in the 3rd and 4th round and beyond and be middle of the pack in pitching at the end of the year.

This all said, do you still think it wise I do this deal?

By: bostonaccent

bostonaccent — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:09:48 +0000

@Baron Von Vulturewins: I just wonder how much of the postseason was the result of fewer games and so a better rested shoulder. Who knows? Kemp feels like playing blackjack with a Ellis Burks (at Fenway) payout. Upton feels more like putting it all on double-zero and getting breakout Carlos Beltran. Risk/reward and all that...

By: James

James — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:08:34 +0000

Gotcha – ha, I just glossed over Toms post before, and didn’t realize until reading your post that I wrote the same thing. Sorry about that…

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:02:00 +0000

@James: Sure, I like him, just not as a power hitter who will take a big step forward b/c of a study I don't buy into. I was just pointing out that that study was flawed. It was saying Holliday wasn't bad on the road as he got used to it. That may have been true, but the real problem was what he did *in* Coors last year and now Alameda will be Coors.

By: James

James — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:54:19 +0000

@Grey – I am confused by some comments you have made about Holliday. It seems you like him, but then you make comments like the one above, which I take as a knock against him. Do you like him as a 3rd round pick?

By: James

James — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:52:21 +0000

@Tom – I read any interesting write up on Holliday somewhere. The premise was that in COL pitchers don’t have the movement that they do away from COL, which will allow for better hitting numbers. The author did a study that showed Holliday got better (.AVG), on road trips, from start to finish. Thus, he acclimated, and from that was can assume he can do that in OAK.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:49:18 +0000

@Tom: I think the study had a major flaw. In Alameda, these are not road games. These are home games in a really poor hitter's stadium. Acclimate to it? He might. He still hit only 15 home runs in almost 300 ABs at Coors. Let's say Alameda sucks only 5 HRs away from him. That's potentially a 20 HR/10 SB guy.

By: Colin

Colin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:45:21 +0000

Kemp batting 6th? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! What the hell is that? He’s the second best hitter in the lineup and they project him 6th? CRICKY. I expected big things from this guy, I have kept him 2 years straight for him to breakout this season. Hopefully Torre will shuffle that lineup more than not.