Curtis Granderson just went 41/25 with 136 runs and 119 RBIs. The least you could do is keep him for another year. Where are your manners? You know who’s going to definitely get an overrated post for 2012 fantasy? Yup. But for now let’s focus on the positives with Grandy. He was pegged as a lefty that only hits lefty but that wasn’t true last year. A new career trend? Sure, let’s say that for keeper purposes with the idea that I can change my mind when I write his overrated post. Okay, that was the last time I’m even alluding to anything negative on him. Last year he hit 16 homers and .272 against lefties. That was the best power in the major leagues against left-handers. A far cry from how bad he was against lefties in prior seasons. Sure, his homer per fly ball rate was absurd against righties and especially lefties, but I’m not here to be negative! (Anymore.) So what can we expect of Curtis Granderson for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a keeper?
Rudy and I were on IM talking about Curtis Granderson for 2012 and I said I thought it was crazy that he was going early 2nd round of mock drafts. Rudy shrugged (virtually) and said Grandy’s 2010 was only bad because of a terrible 1st half with major suckage during April and May. (I’m paraphrasing Rudy here.) He’s right; Grandy hit only 2 homers in April and zero homers in May in 2010. Grandy does look like a 30 homer hitter in The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House That Ruth Built. I won’t talk about how Grandy only had 15 homers in 2010 up until September 1st. I’m not going to say that because this post is not negative. I also won’t talk about how he’s going to be 31 years old, how his K-rate went up last year and how his average is gonna be a lot closer to .250 than .260-plus. What this comes down to is Grandy was drafted much later than you’re going to get him this year so as a keeper he’s a bargain. Now if you can trade a cheap Grandy keeper for a better keeper… No, I’m not going to say anything negative about Granderson. Not yet, at least.
Finally got the Bruce deal nailed. Getting Bruce ($22) and Cain ($11) for a 1st round prospect draft pick. Thanks for keeping this open during the offseason for help and advice Grey, you da man.
One last piece of advice, now that I’ve got Cain what contract would you recommend? I think it’s between 1 year ($14) or 2 years ($17).
grandy’s going to be way overrated this draft, he had his career year in 2011 and will instantly be overpaid for….
Steer clear.
@ Grey :
if you’re not going to watch zimmern/madagascar ,
would be happy to provide a clue as to the bizarre food
consumed at the end of the show , and it’s preparation .
@TheNewGuy: No problem… 1 year.
@Tony: Yup
@chata: Sure, what’s the bizarre food?
@Grey:
2011 BABIP: .295
2012 XBABIP: .313
I certainly wouldn’t project improved performance based on small ‘Xpected’ improvement, but wondering how you process this info into your ‘not negative’ forecast?
I see the September swoon and don’t know whether to think that 1) pitchers caught up with him, or 2) it should be ignored based on such a strong year to that point…?
kind of a conundrum for me…
I think you can justify Grandy as an early second rounder. Even if you depress his last year numbers 20% you’ll get 32 homers, 20 steals, 119 runs and 96 RBIs for counting stats. Only 6 guys hit at least 30 home runs and stole 20 or more bases last year: Kemp, Braun, Kinsler, Ellsbury, Little Ups and Granderson. Pretty good company. He’s in the best line up in one of the best parks.
His HR/FB rate was above his career by quite a bit, but go look at his home run scatter chart here: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_9&type=hitter
Notice how many home runs went right down the right field line or close to it in 2011. Compare 2010 too. Kind of looks like a guy who learned how to take advantage of the short porch which makes me believe that some if not all of his HR/FB rate improvement is sustainatble.
One think that is just kind of worth comment is how similar to Bautista his break out in the sense the tail end of the previous season seemed to foreshadow the break out. Look at Joey Bats 2009 splits and look at his August and September. Seeing the Granderson phenomenon as single season mirage runs the risk of missing a true shift in player performance like some might have not foreseen Bautista’s continued good run.
@simply fred: I don’t understand your question.
@OaktownSteve: You can look at his 2010 September as a sign of good things to come for 2011, but what then do you make of his 2011 September that was terrible? Is that just ignored or is that more foreshadowing?
He only started 21 games in Sept/Oct reg season with 100 PAs. Compare to August 28 and 131. Yankees were in coast mode. He was not on his regular routine. Had some pinch hitting appearances. Seriously though look at the home run chart. He was working shortest part of the park pretty well. I think there’s something to be said for knowing how to take advantage of your home yard. Might have figured it out. When I saw him this year I saw very quick hands inside, especially against left handers.
Okay, nothing to do with Grandy here…who would you rather hold onto long-term:
Jhoulys Chacin
or
Tyler Skaggs & Jordan Lyles
I think he probably puts up 3rd round numbers.
@OaktownSteve: Yeah, looked at the home run chart (then I got lost in that site for three hours). Is he 25/15/.250? Or is he 35/20/.260? That’s what I think it comes down to. If it’s closer to the former then there’s issues. I’m not willing to go for that risk in the 2nd round. I’m not sure Bautista is a fair comparison because A) he still had 3rd base eligibility which is huge B) he didn’t have full seasons under his belt where he was good but not great like Grandy.
@airweino: Chacin
@Wake Up: Probably close to that, yeah.
@OaktownSteve: Oh, and if pitchers only give Grandy away pitches can he exploit the short porch again? Good questions that I’m not saying I’m definitely right on.
I continually get bumped off everytime i go to comments. Its been happening for months. Am i alone? This is the first time ive been able to be here long enough to write out a distress signal.
@grey: Lots of interesting topics in there. I know you’re big on the boom/bust cycle of over/under value year to year, so Granderson is definitely going to be in your crosshairs. Still even with some regression, Granderson is among the top tier of those who can potentially produce a plus speed/power season. My bias here is that I think getting speed/power combo early is key in constructing your roster. So I tend to be very interested in guys with that potential.
And who are the first round locks that keep Grandy out of a 12 team draft? I count: Braun, Kemp, Pujols, Cabrera, Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez, Cano, Votto, Tulowitzki and maybe Fielder depending on where he lands. That’s 11. So now you’ve got him in the mix with Little Ups, Pedroia, Kinsler and Cargo maybe. At minimum, even with regression, I would jump all over him mid-second round because of park and line up.
Finally, the old cliche is definitely that it’s a league of adjustments and he’ll for sure see some different approaches this year. However, he’s got a lot of physical ability and seemingly a good make up that gives you hope he can make adjustments.
I think you are right to say the Bautista comparison is not a perfect fit. I was just kind of feeling a similarity in the storyline of, hey if you looked at the results at the end of the previous year, the seeds might have been there. But that’s pretty unscientific, isn’t it.
@Giant JJ: Others seem to be able to, where are you writing the comments from? iPhone? iPad? I know some people have had issues with those devices.
@OaktownSteve: Yeah, I hear ya. Power/speed combo makes him harder to peg as overrated. I looked at Ethier and it was a no brainer because if he fails in one category (power) he’s done. If Grandy gets 20 steals and only 20 homers it’s still not a terrible season so he becomes a tougher call. I think CarGo last year is a better analogy. Will he perform as well as his huge year? No. Will he still be valuable? With power and speed it’s hard to say he won’t. It’s just a matter of how productive. If he gives 25/15/.260, you could’ve had Werth fifteen rounds later.
EDIT: Typo
@Grey: If the XBABIP for 2012 were LESS than his actual 2011, I would think that would give weight that his performance might deteriorate. Since the Xpected BABIP is ticking up slightly, that would normally indicate improved performance for 2012 over 2011, wouldn’t it? What am I missing?
@Giant JJ: What browser are you using? Internet Explorer? Try a different option (Chrome, Firefox) and see if they work better.
@simply fred: His HR/FB was off the charts. If his FBs stay consistent and he hits less homers, the balls get caught. His LDs dropped last year and K-rate went up. Not great signs either.
Even still, I had Cargo as number 22 overall (pitchers included) by my ranking system last year even with the injury. And as to the Werth thing, the line up for Grandy is huge. He’s going to come close to 100 and 100 just by putting on the uniform every day. Werth scored 69 and drove in 58 last year. I tend to view things through a SB/HR lens too because it how I think you build a roster, but you can’t go apples to apples when the runs and ribbies are that disparate as much as those categories are secondary considerations for me.
by the way…I like Werth this year. Betcha he gets a lot of sleeper love as the season gets closer.
@OaktownSteve: Grandy had 67 RBIs and 76 runs in 2010 while putting on the Yankee uniform in a lineup that was just as good (maybe better if you put his 2011 in the 2010 lineup). Instinctively, I always say to myself would I be having this discussion about a player if he didn’t just have a career year. I don’t think we would. Again, steals and power combo is nice so I don’t want to seem too down on him.
@OaktownSteve: Yeah, I like Werth more, but as you said his lineup and park aren’t as good as it was in Philly. He’s still a victim of his surroundings.
2010 he played 136 games and hit 7th or 8th 100 times. Last year he hit 2nd or 3rd 134 times. If he’s going to hit in the 2 slot, I’m penciling him in for 100/100 and that’s just because I can’t find a pen.
I think there’s no question on the regression. The question is, how much and how much vis a vis where he’s being drafted. I think in this day and age of so much information available, folks sometimes out smart themselves and a guy becomes underrated by virtue of all the talk about overrating. But like I said, I still jump mid-second if the draft is today and maybe even consider him at the turn.
@OaktownSteve: Again, all fair points. But if he slumps in a solid Yankee lineup in April, he gets moved out of the two hole very quickly because they have other options.
Yea Grey. I use an Ipad or Iphone exclusely. Im finding now that if i take my time and let the page fully download, i dont get bumped off. Thanks, as you were..
@Giant JJ: Cool, I’m glad.
@Grey:
zimmern clue ===> bris
@chata: There goes my gag reflex.
@OaktownSteve:
@Grey:
am enjoying the granderson discussion .
though grandy , like bautista , may have made swing discoveries that allow him/them to take advantage of home-park considerations , there is no quid pro quo equating their future performance … they’re simply separate identities .
agree that cargo , being less likely to “lose his legs” , has the better fail-safe .
in fact , i foresee grandy getting less opportunity to run … because there IS a correlation between he and bret gardner .
personally , it’s going to take a bit more time to convince me that grandy can hit lefties …. and i’m not sure he has it … even though he’s only 31 .
i don’t think anyone will see grandy lasting until the 3rd round this year .
simply because #1 and #2 out-fielders are as scarce as hen’s teeth .
@Grey:
a)
both grandparents had the honor .
served on top of a half-peeled small banana .
no lie .
b) we’re all liking werth a bit , but if “those guys” would have listened to
me , in the 1st place , and pulled off the werth for crawford trade …
it would not only be better for baseball , both real and fantasy , but we
would be having much different discussion as to his worth .
c)
d) i like typing the word “werth” because all the letter are in a straight
line … almost .
edit *
both male grandparents
@chata: A) Too much info. D) Ha!
@Grey:
knowing how cinematic you are , i should have added that the camera
angles were very tastefully done .
@Grey:
give me werth’s line IF he was in that boston line-up , please .
@Grey: Does this mean you like Ells more than Grandy? I hope so because I’m keeping Ells instead of Tex, Stanton and Kershaw.
Although…knowing that I can keep Stanton indefinitely in a 3 keeper 12 team H2H…..should I reconsider?
@chata: Ha!
@swaggerjackers: I’d keep Stanton…He’s a 22 year old beast.
@Grey: I Qi you!!!!
@Grey: You’ve probably been asked. If so, I missed it. If Darvish gets posted, what is a likely ADP?
@Terrence Mann: Ha!
@simply fred: Depends where he ends up, but I’d say he gets drafted as an early number two, late number one. So 60 to 80 range.
@Grey: So because I could keep Stanton for the next 5+ seasons, I should do it even though Ellsbury provided better fantasy production in 2011? Kt’s a standard 5×5 league and Ells contributed across the board. My keeps would be Tulo, Cano and Stanton.
@swaggerjackers: Yup, I’d keep Stanton.
@Grey: would you draft him, 60 to 80, (if he lands on a favorable team)?
@simply fred: Nah, I don’t like the track record of Japanese import pitchers, but everything I’ve heard has been impressive.
@Grey: Thanks! If you rate ‘em too risky, they are too risky.
@Grey:
for you sawx lovers :
weei is reporting that boston globe sources are saying that :
bobby valentine flew down to the dominican republic to talk with
david ortiz (at his annual golf tournament) in an attempt to get him to
accept the sawx’ arbitration offer .
further , they are reporting , that johnny damon …. also at the tourney …
is trying to convince the BIG Poop to sign with the new york yankees .
seems strange .
@simply fred: No problem.
@chata: Thanks for the heads up!
Has anyone started up any mocks here, yet? I know last year we got some great ones in about this time….
He is not overrated. The way he’ll be drafted is the way he’ll be performing!
30+ HRs. 20+ SB, 100+ Rs/RBIs – BOOM!
@Terrence Mann: there are a couple of slow drafts going on at:
http://couchmanagers.com/
just click on them under ‘current drafts’. once you get there click on the ‘draft chart’ at the top. I recognize Gopher Day and Chata as our guys.
@simply fred: Thanks, bro.
@Terrence Mann: There’s a mock on Razzballers going on over there… There’s a link to it in our forums.
@Grey: Sweet. I will check it out. Also, still patiently waiting….
@Terrence Mann: no problem. this a previously completed one:
http://couchmanagers.com/mock_drafts/draft_chart.php?draftnum=18864
Hardy-har-har:
http://deadspin.com/5864922/
@Steve: HA!
@Steve: Ha! Thank you. I rarely look at Deadspin on the weekends and would have missed this.
@Grey: What does December Grey think March Grey would pay for Granderson in an auction (12 team, mixed)?
@peter: $29
Marlins have reportedly offered Reyes a 6-year, $111 deal. Pretty sure he’s going to be a Marlins in the next 48 hours.
How does this affect Reyes in fantasy?
http://www.rotohardball.com/2011/11/18/2571007/marlins-could-steal-a-whole-lot-in-2012
@Grey: Speaking of Grandy, who wold be your 6 keepers from this bunch?
C Santana $10
Votto $36
Cano $25
Alvarez $11
Reyes $41
Dunn $25
Phillips $26
Car-Go $15
Stanton $10
Heyward $36
J Upton $33
Granderson $5
Quentin $6
Greinke $20
Weaver $17
Kennedy $7
Shields $5
Prices are to keep next year. We were 8 teams this year, $300 cap, 3 x OF, 2 x Util, MI/CI etc.
@Steve: Just so we’re clear, the foregoing was not an endorsement of Nickelback.
We now return you to your scheduled programming.
@Eddy: I don’t read SB Nation sites.
@Steve: Stanton, Cano, Dunn (kidding), Grandy, Shields, Kennedy, Weaver… You have a solid keepers. Could go other ways.
@Grey: Wow – 3 pitchers in an 8-teamer? Interesting. And finally time to cut ties with Joey V.
Plenty of time to sort this out, of course…
@Steve: Those prices were so good… But you’re right, 3 pitchers is a bit much in a 8 team league… Get more owners! CarGo over Weaver… Again, could go other ways…
@Grey: Yeah – Shields and Grandy I just grabbed off the wire. More owners would be good – this is the league I’m in with Hippo and Al K.
@Steve: Crazy you grabbed Grandy off waivers. Did you win this league last year?
@Grey: Nah – I finished third – 4 points back.
If my Google Chat connection to Hippo hadn’t gone down while Kershaw was on the block, I might have won it (emoticon)
@Grey: Just looked a bit more carefully. Al K bought Grandy for a dollar and then dropped him. Makes it sweeter.
@Steve: Nice on Grandy… Third? Wow, the other two teams must’ve been really stacked. Who won? AL K?
@Grey: Well, they don’t *look* stacked now that I look at them again, but one had Kemp and the other Ellsbury. K-Dog was first, Hippo second.
I had a 1 in hitters Ks and 3s in AVG and ERA which didn’t help obviously.
@Steve: Ah… Yeah, if those were simply average you would’ve won in a walk.
@Grey: I’ve been a 1 in hitters Ks since the day I joined the league.
@Steve: I feel a sense of culpability and pride.
Sounds like the Reyes-to-Marlins deal is done. That’s from Rosenthal and Olney.
@Grey:
Points out that Ozzie Guillen LOVES to send runners. Always was one of the top in attempts in AL. ANd now Jose Reyes is a Marlins so that definitely bodes well.
@Steve:
Feels good to be a Marlins fan.
Let’s not forget Hanley is going to be SS/3B eligible in what is definitely going to be a bounce back year.
@Steve: Wow, that was fast.
@Eddy: Yeah, they’re looking good.
Updated Razzmock results can be found on the Forum! Insights are more than welcome, if anything just check out the results. http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=21861&p=79002#p79002
@Steve:
concerning your keepers , and comment #71 :
i would surmise that , since you employ such free-swingers , you would ,
naturally , be a high-roller .
so , who cares about a few bucks here , a few bucks there ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFsSC_qAGlQ
next round’s on you ?
@chata: Well, I usually arrive like I’m king of the table.
But 30 minutes later…