Justin Smoak, 2011 Fantasy Sleeper
December 13, 2010
Category: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper
I take this not-paying-actual-money job way too seriously. If I tell you a guy is a 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper, it could mean anywhere from he’s not even worth drafting in 12 team leagues to he’s a nice name to look in the 10th round of 10 team leagues that could give you 5th round value. With that said, I don’t want to tell you to go after Mariner hitters. I really don’t. Be aware that it pains me. It hurts me soul, Lupe Fiasco. But here we are — you, me and Justin Smoak. He arrived on the scene when the Rangers could no longer handle watching Bill James sob every time Chris Davis walked to plate and back to the dugout after 3 pitches. Smoak had Ranger fans no longer asking, “Where’d Davis go and all his strikeouts?” Instead, he had them asking, “Who’s this new guy that strikes out just as much?” Tis true, boo. Smoak was just as frustrating and didn’t get much better when he was traded to the Mariners. So what can we expect of Justin Smoak for 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
There’s a reason Smoak was a 1st round draft pick. Doode’s talented. In 625 ABs in the minor leagues, he had a .404 OBP. Last year, he was crazy unlucky (.255 BABIP), which I’m speculating made him less patient since he’s young and that caused his OBP (.307) to evaporate in the majors. It should return. I’m not convinced Smoak will hit more than 20 homers in Safeco next year, which puts him on my sleeper radar for just a corner infidel spot. What if Smoak gets, say, 595 ABs next year and puts up a line of 77/15/78/.318? That would be terrible, right? Yeah, that was Billy Butler’s line in 2010. The same Billy Butler I’ve seen drafted in the 5th round of a mock draft. Smoak should have a lower average than Butler, but he’ll beat or be right there with Butler in all other categories. Say 75/22/90/.275 with upside across the board. Oh, and for what it’s Wuertz, after he was recalled by the M’s in September, he hit .340 and 3 homers in his final 50 ABs of the year as the lost Smoak Monster found himself.
December 13th, 2010 at 12:27 am
i really think we have the same steez grey… nice to see some lupe fiasco love in the post… what do you think about kid kudi; his last album not so much?
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December 13th, 2010 at 5:09 am
Smoak is the new Casey Kotchman. Don’t hold your breath.
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December 13th, 2010 at 5:09 am
Smoak Monster or Travis Snider?
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December 13th, 2010 at 5:28 am
Considering they both hit in state parks, is Ike Davis a better keeper than Smoak, at the same price?
Also, and I know this is off topic, Latos or Jhoulys?
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:08 am
up in smoak .
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:08 am
@Pops: Not really comparable. The post suggested you should look at Smoak for a cheap MI alternative. Snider is an OF.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:09 am
Edit: CI
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@mic: I like some of his stuff. Haven’t listened to the last album enough to say. Should I? Is it good?
@Pops: Snider
@Justin: Take Davis… Latos.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:28 am
****THE RAZZBALL MOCK IS OPEN****
Just log onto mockdraftcentral and look for “Razzball Mock Draft” on Wednesday 4pm EST.
Password is “mustache”.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:29 am
@Eddy:
Btw, use your comment user name so we could keep track of who has and hasn’t participated.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:36 am
As a Mariners fan, Smoak better become a stud, or I will never forgive him for the gigantic dump he took on my Razzball team the final week of the season.
Yes, I’m still mad.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:40 am
@Eddy:
hope it goes well .
(un)fortunately , i will be working at that time .
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:40 am
Razzball is a bonding experience:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz5_NOK3zlE
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:44 am
@big o:
Next time I’ll make an evening draft so you can participate big o
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:53 am
Who should be in the same tier as Smoak? I’m thinking Butler should be a bit higher….maybe Robot Jones, Konerko, Cuddyer?
When drafting, I like to put players in tiers, target a tier, then grab a guy I like before the tier disappears.
I imagine you’re familiar with this drafting strategery.
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@ichirosan: Ha
@Terrence Mann: Smoak’s after those guys. He’s an endgame flier.
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:11 am
Safeco actually plays pretty well for lefties, and Smoak is a switch hitter so he’ll get the majority of his ABs from the left side of the plate. I wouldn’t write off his power based on Safeco’s reputation, because Safeco’s reputation isn’t entirely accurate.
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:30 am
@simply fred:
funny vid .
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:32 am
@Grey:
beltre or aramis ?
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@Dave: I’m not writing it off.
@big o: Aramis… But I don’t know where Beltre’s signing yet.
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:40 am
@Eddy: Joined, this should be good. Everyone going commando and all. (No Razzball cheat sheets.)
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:03 am
@big o: yeah, looked like they photo-shopped the ‘stache out of there.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:55 am
kudi’s last album wasn’t that great… his older stuff was better…
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:56 am
@GopherDay:
Definitely man. I’ve only completed one real mock (room full of ‘perts and whatnot) and since MDC’s ADP is still a little funky guys like Ellsbury went in Rd.15!
But if there’s one thing that’s surprisingly abundant this year it’s SP.
We’ll soon find out on Wednesday.
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@mic: Gotcha…
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December 13th, 2010 at 10:03 am
@Eddy: i’m in there like swimwear… i have my cheat sheet but it doesn’t have OF’s and SP’s yet…
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December 13th, 2010 at 1:05 pm
@Eddy: Alas, I’ll be at work, and can’t launch the draft window from behind the firewall.
That and I sit where everyone can see what I’m doing…
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December 13th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
Keeper question…
7×7 H2H league, 12 teams, 5 keepers. I’m currently figuring on keeping Longo, A-Gon, CarGo, Pedroia and Lester. On the outside looking in are: Morneau, Werth, Kershaw, JJ and David Price.
Does this sound about right? Anyone think differently? Thanks in advance to whoever wants to weigh in.
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@Lines: I agree with your five.
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December 13th, 2010 at 5:16 pm
Apparently the Phils are in on Lee, along with the Yanks and Rangers…
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@Steve: The Phil Lee’s? It’s a pretty bad sign when the top pitching free agent is only shop three teams because no one else has any money.
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December 13th, 2010 at 5:37 pm
@Grey: The Phils don’t even have the money. They’re trying to unload Blanton and the 17 Million that remains on his contract. Good luck with that!
Still think he goes to the Yanks.
Scratch that, I think the Nationals come out of nowhere to sign him to 10 years 200 million dollars.
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@GopherDay: Ha… True re: Phils. I think he goes to the Rangers.
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December 13th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
@Grey: Crap, don’t know why I wrote Yanks. I meant Texas. But yeah, hopefully he shows that not everyone needs to make it to pinstripes to hit it big.
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December 13th, 2010 at 5:45 pm
@Grey: @GopherDay: FWIW, it’s a Philly guy reporting it, citing the usual source of “a person close to the situation.”
Funny how often teams always seem to be able to ‘find’ the money in these situations
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@GopherDay: Yeah, I think if it was going to be the Yankees it would’ve happened already. He’s just trying to get the most from Texas then he’ll sign. Could be wrong, obviously.
@Steve: They should ask four of their superstars to give $5 mill/year each to pay for Lee.
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December 13th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
@Grey: Yeah, and apparently the Yankees are getting frustrated with waiting on Lee. “Wait…not everyone wants us??”
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
@Grey:
Yeah I was kinda liking Smoak for next year too.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
@Grey: Yanks believe that Lee is leaning towards the Phils (it says here).
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@GopherDay: Ha
@Elijah: Cool…
@Steve: Be better for fantasy purposes.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
@Eddy:
Just so people are informed:
Yes you can get a free trial account.
Yes, the confirmation email may end up in your spam folder.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:20 pm
@Grey:
If nothing else he owes me for sucking last year hah.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
@Grey: A steady diet of Marlins, Nats and Metco won’t give anyone indigestion.
What a front three it would be…
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
@Eddy:
45 secs is kinda fast for having no cheat sheet!
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:23 pm
@Steve:
If Lee goes to Philly, that will be one of the best pitching rotations in recent memory…I think you’d have to go back to the Braves to find a comparable one.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:24 pm
@Steve: What a front four it would be…Won’t matter what scrub they throw at the #5 spot.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
@Grey:
Lee and Oswalt, it would be the 4 assassins?
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
@Steve:
Shoot, Hamels isn’t exactly a scrub either.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
@Elijah: Oofa!
@GopherDay: Wow – had totally forgotten about Hamels. Was thinking Halladay, Lee and Oswalt.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
@Elijah: They should sign Ray for the bullpen.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
@Elijah:
We’ll see how it goes
Though unless you wait until your turn to start thinking who to draft next i think it’s enough. As others draft just build up your pre-picks
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:29 pm
@Eddy:
I hear ya, and not saying I cant make most of my picks in 45 secs, but Im sure I’ll be making a few WTF picks.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
@Eddy:
Cuz it ALWAYS happens I have like 2-3 guys I like that get picked right before my pick them Im totally lost.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
@Steve:
Best rotation since Elijah Davis joined the Giants in MLB2k10.
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@Steve: No they wouldn’t.
@Elijah: Ha!
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
@Grey:
Halladay from the Grassy Knoll.
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December 13th, 2010 at 7:59 pm
“Todd Zolecki of MLB.com confirms that the Phillies are a legitimate suitor for Cliff Lee and was told by a source that the club is shopping Joe Blanton, Raul Ibanez and Kyle Kendrick in order to clear salary.
The Phillies already have over $145 million tied up in contracts for next season, so somebody would have to go if they add Cliff Lee. Blanton is owed $17 million over the next two seasons while Ibanez makes $11.5 million in 2011 before hitting free agency. Kendrick, meanwhile, is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. It’s possible that the Phillies could heavily backload Lee’s contract, though that could be crippling for the franchise in the long-run.”
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
@Elijah: Ibanez is robbing the Phillies blind.
And I KNOW Grey will agree with me (emoticon).
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
@Steve:
Well, he had a really good 2 months for em, thats about it.
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:15 pm
Word on the street (Twitter St, that is) is that Lee has reached a tentative agreement with the Phillies. Is apparently seeing if Rangers are willing to go to 8 years…
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
@Steve: Oops. Info came from a fake Twitter account.
Sorry.
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:34 pm
@Steve:
trick or tweeted ?
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December 13th, 2010 at 8:58 pm
I agree with Grey. If Lee was going to sign with Yanks I think he would have done so already. He has to know that’s the biggest contract he would get so if it’s about money he would have taken it by now.
Too much for AGon and Bruce in keeper (hopefully along with a reasonable pick)? I give Price, Liriano, Stanton, and Ethier/(or)Rios. I can only keep 3 out those 4 without going over keeper limit. We keep 10. Keepers after the deal would be :
1b Fielder
2b Pedroia
3b Arod
ss Hanley
Of Crawford
Of Bruce
Of Ethier/Rios (whichever isn’t in deal)
Util A Gonzalez
Sp: Felix, U Jimenez
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
It’s the Phillies. For real this time.
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@big o: Ha
@EDUB: It’s too much.
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@Steve: Really? That’s good for his value.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
According to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, the Rangers have been told that Cliff Lee is signing with the Phillies.
Seems like the real deal.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101213&content_id=16311236&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
Wow.
The red sox and the phillies both got absolutely STACKED this offseason.
Shit.
My poor Marlins just got ‘effed.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
I can’t say I’m dissapointed the Yanks got hoodwinked this offseason. At least they were smart enough to sign Jeter for $50 mil. *cough*
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:18 pm
@Eddy:
If there’s a silver lining, its that the Phillies are likely gonna have to bribe people with prospects to take Blanton or Ibenez off their hands. Maybe in 3-4 years the Marlins can contend.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
@Elijah:
Stanton better hit 94 HR next season.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
No question this is the best rotation since Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz, Milwood.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
i wanna say it first :
jim palmer
dave mcnally
mike cuellar
and
…………………………………………………………………………..pat dobson
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
@Eddy:
Bill James wouldn’t even sling that shingle.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
@big o:
Who? Is the 50′s? *smiley*
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Initial reports are Lee left $50 million on the table to sign with Philly over NYY. Talk about yanking their chains…
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:32 pm
@Elijah:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/1971.shtml
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
@Grey: So who would you keep as last 3 keepers out of Ethier, Rios, Price, Liriano, and Stanton. Thanks
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
@big o:
Yeah I know, was just teasin ya. I actually think it would be too much to compare this group with that one…yet. Lets see em beat the 93 Braves first. (and I doubt they can)
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
@EDUB:
Just my 2 cents, but Id say Price, Stanton, and whoever fits your needs most 3rd.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:41 pm
@Elijah: Thanks
With Stanton and Price, roster would be (minus 1):
Fielder
Pedroia
Arod
Hanley
Crawford
Stanton
Felix, Ubaldo, Price
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:42 pm
At 5:00pm was listening to the Mets GM stating that he things he could with some luck compete with The Philles – He stated that the Mets don’t need to sign any free agents to compete
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:45 pm
@mr baseball:
Worse yet, expect Reyes to be traded next season, either during or after. New York Inepts strike again.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
@EDUB:
3rd one’s tough. I guess Liriano. Ethier and Rios you can replace in the draft without much of a sweat.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:48 pm
Justin Smoak – someone dropped him late in the season in my 20 team fantasy league so I took a shot and added to my team just in case you wrote an article that he was a Fantasy Sleeper Grey
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
@mr baseball:
Gotta say tho, Id like him a lot more if he weren’t on the Maryners.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
@Elijah Says:
not sure who is in The Mets starting rotation but I am sure it is not pretty
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
Grey was invited to the Cliff Lee Signing
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:56 pm
@mr baseball:
Its the aging Santana and his 4 geezer drummers. They may have a singer too, I dunno.
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December 13th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
@mr baseball:
He’s either dyeing his stache or writing his article for tomorrow. Or both.
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