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juanpierre00734125_rockies_v_dodgersJuan Pierre is like a piece of paper.  You fold his ABs in half but it just makes him twice as strong.  People scoffed last year when I boldly kept my HR projection for Juan Pierre roughly the same (0.5 from 0.6) despite seeing his projected ABs go from 615 to 350.

Let’s see what happened:

Rudy Gamble’s pre-season projections:
350 AB, 0.5 HR, 24 RBI

Juan Pierre’s actual stats:
375 AB, 1 HR, 28 RBI

Yes, Juan Pierre hit the HR.  Thanks to a 2-run blast on September 15th against a Pirate hurler named Marino Salas to ‘deep RF’.

juan-pierre-boxscore

Pierre increased his HR output by #DIV/0!% vs. 2007 despite a 44% decrease in ABs from 2007.  I’ve looked at the stats for tons of power hitters and no one has been able to increase HRs by that type of percentage even when they increased AB from the previous season.

juan-pierre-hr

So what is on tap for 2009?  Well, I have Pierre projected for 280 ABs which is about a 20% drop from 2008.  But I’m going to project him for a Herculean 1.3 HRs.  That’s a 30% increase vs. his 2008 actuals and 160% over my 2008 projection.

I’m doubling down on  you, Juan.  Don’t let me down!

  1. GTG says:
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    You can’t get this kind of insight from ESPN or CBS. You guys should double your subscription costs.

  2. Doug Ault says:
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    Never trust a player with two first names

  3. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Just imagine the sort of numbers Pierre woulda put up in the steroid era… wait…

  4. Steve says:
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    I project that somebody, somewhere, will have their fantasy season ruined by that home run.

  5. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    @Steve: 1200 comments, Steve? Well done, sir.

  6. Steve says:
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    @IowaCubs: Thank you. Let’s not count how many of those relate to fantasy baseball though, shall we?

  7. vinko says:
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    @Rudy: This sudden increase in power is alarming! Should I consider trading him in the Razzball league?

  8. Al says:
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    @Doug Ault: Especially when both of them are incredibly gay

  9. Pops says:
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    Did he just say Wiggly Field?

  10. ep says:
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    I thought about picking up Pierre in my 8-team mixed league earlier today, but this seals it. Added.

  11. Keith says:
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    My league has an award that you win if Pierre hits a home run on one of your pitchers. I’m pushing for a 2 win or save deduction if it happens in addition to the award.

  12. The spreadsheet formula for percentage change in HRs is flawed because you can’t divide by zero, I presume.

  13. As a person who always goes to BP and stands in the outfield hoping to elbow a disease-ridden kid probably Making A Wish out of the way in order to catch a ball, I actually caught my first BP home run ball off a line drive shot by Pierre last summer.

    Unfortunately, all the leukemia kids had left when they saw Pierre was hitting obviously having not read Rudy’s predictions last season.

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