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For whatever reason the Rockies never gave Eric Young Jr. a fair shot at an everyday playing job.  I’m pouring out some of my forty-oh for EY.  Okay, enough of that sob story.  What is this a Lifetime movie?  Sheesh!  BTW, if I ever had a son, I’d name him Sheesh.  Talk about the annoying looks he would get.  ”Sheesh, where are you?”  ”I’m on my way other, why are you so annoyed?”  ”I’m not.  Sheesh!”  ”You sound it.”  ”Sheesh!”  ”What?!”  Man, my offspring could lose a good three years total of his life just explaining his name.  The Rockies have committed 2nd base in 2013 to Josh Rutledge.  In 356 Double-A at-bats last year, he dominated with 13 homers and 14 steals with a .306 average.  Then jumped to the majors and kept it going.  In 277 ABs, he had eight homers and seven steals with a .274 average.   So what can we expect of Josh Rutledge for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

There’s chance for a huge year from Rutledge.  He’s shown great speed and a decent amount of pop.  ”Decent amount of pop” translates in Colorado to fifteen homers and pass the doobie while on the sky lift.  (Sorry, it’s Colorado, and everything ends with a doobie on a sky lift.)  Let’s say he hits at the top of the order and gets 550 ABs.  That’s conservative, he could easily break 600 ABs.  Decent pop in Coors with 550 ABs is 17 homers (take 12% HR/FB, 140 fly balls over a full year, yadda/schmadda.)  His speed is actually a tad better than his power.  His Bill James Speed Score for a half season last year was 7.6 and would’ve been the fifth best in the majors if he had qualified.  Slightly better than Michael Bourn.  In seven steals last year, he wasn’t caught once.  I could easily see twenty-plus steals, but let’s just give him twenty because he’ll be in front of guys where he might not always have the green light and his walk rate is miserable (which I’ll get to).  Top of the order in Colorado gives you about 100 runs and 45 RBIs, the two hole gives you crap, the two hole in a Rockies lineup gives you about 90/55.  There’s no downside here, except his walk rate.  It’s terrible.  (You had to know something negative was coming.)  Again, if he qualified, he would’ve had the 2nd worst walk rate in the majors.  Between Alexei Ramirez and Delmon Young.  Belch.  Coors and speed will help with BABIP.  The biggest pitfall is if no one throws him another strike in his career.  Assuming he gets some pitches to hit, I’ll give him the line of 92/17/51/.262/20.  That’s huge value and a definite sleeper.  Sheesh!  ”What did I do now?  Now pass the doobie on the ski lift.”

40 Responses

  1. allan says:
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    You are pretty funny. I just ran into your site and your material is unique.

    Your projections are pretty good too. You nailed Kershaw really good.

    My question: I read your Trevor Bauer and Shelby Miller projection comparisons.
    As a Cardinal fan, I am really interested in your take on Trevor Rosenthal as a
    starter. I assume from what you wrote that Rosenthal is somewhere in between.
    I figure: 9-7/3.75/1.33/162 in 156 innings. Would you agree?

    I read that nearly all of Pete Kozma’s September is unsustainable with the BABIP,
    line drive rate %, etc. Yet, I find it hard to believe that he would return completely to mean.

    Is 69/10/61/.251/8 in about 500 AB’s realistic at all for him?

    Thanks. How much is a daiquiri where you are? I don’t drink much.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks for the kind words! I don’t think Rosenthal comes anywhere near that amount of IP… Cards have him as a set up man right now… I haven’t heard any talk that he’d start the year in the rotation… Kozma surprised everyone and the Cards want Furcal at SS… 500 ABs won’t happen… If it did happen, .240 could happen… With 8 homers and 8 steals…

  2. Dan's Uggla says:
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    Evaluate trade please! $260, H2H, standard. C, 1b, 2b, ss, 3b, CI, MI, util, ofx5 , (Keep price) , can keep 5 major leaguers and 6 minor leaguers.

    Granderson (23) and Bubba Starling

    For

    Chapman (5) and Will Meyers

    Which side?

    • Dan's Uggla says:
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      @Dan’s Uggla:

      SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, P

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Myers…

  3. Nick says:
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    No concern over Rutledge’s splits by month? He started out in July with a 1.076 OPS, followed by .931 in August, .570 in September, .294 in October. His K rate also spiked as the season went on (albeit with a few more walks sprinkled in). I’m not saying he’s Bryan LaHair, but that’s a scary trend.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m concerned that he could strikeout a lot, not walk and hit .240… I’m hoping his BABIP and speed could him afloat in the average dept. I think average is the only trouble area for him…

  4. HomeRunfromBehindtheMeatBalls says:
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    Good shibb as always from the moustachio’d marvel! Keep it comin, son.

    Could you rank the following 2B up-n-comersfor me? NL-only, Dynasty League

    Josh Rutledge/Jedd Gyorko/Kolten Wong.

    From your previous write-up on Jerk-O, it seems Rutledge > Jerko, but where would you put Wong? And what’s your $0.02 on Wong’s ETA?

    Thanks man

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You ranked them… Wong’s not due until ASB, unless there’s injuries and he’s only a 5 homer, 10 steal guy this year…

  5. OaktownSteve says:
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    Got an early sleeper for you and for anybody doing a slow draft or an early off-season league. Kyuji Fujikawa. Japanese closer signed by Cubs.

    ‘Sup razzballians? I just started getting excited about baseball again.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You think Marmol is gone from the Cubs by April or he’s being replaced?

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        Yes I do. Or wait, am I having to pick one? The Cubs obviously would like to move him, but there doesn’t seem to be a to of interest. I would say the switch happens in the spring after a series of spring Marmolian debacles. I’m hearing Fujikawa is really good.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I think you might be right… Marmol gets to late-April with a 7 ERA and the Cubs give Kyuji a chance…

        • prezii says:
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          @OaktownSteve: waddupp steve!

  6. Charles says:
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    Every year, fantasy football reminds me why fantasy baseball is soooo much better. I’m counting down the days until the top-10 rankings come out. How many days…?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Around January 14th…

  7. Terrence Mann says:
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    EYjr sucks fielding.

    Where you have VMart? 4th round too early?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Way too early…

  8. JT says:
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    Good stuff, Grey. I hoping I can snag Rutledge or Altuve for my MI slot.

    I’m in a 12-team, H2H keeper and I only kept one pitcher (Price). Our scoring cats for pitching are: W, L, QS, ERA, WHIP, Saves, Ks

    The following guys are available for re-draft and I have a legit shot at 2 of these guys based on draft order: Moore, Halladay, Wainwright, Samardzija, Shields, Kennedy, Morrow, Anderson, Fister, Lester, Lincecum

    Which two do you like?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Moore, Wainwright

  9. JT says:
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    By the way: your post on The Shark boosted him into this tier of consideration. I’m not nuts about Morrow or Timmy (based on last year), but these are the guys I think I can get with my first two picks.

  10. Josh says:
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    Solid post Grey… Question on my H2H League. I just received a trade proposal where I give up Kemp & DWright, and in return I get Fielder & Longo.

    Do I pull the trigger? Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! I like it for you…

  11. beardcrabs says:
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    who would you rather have as an alternate keeper:

    Hunter Pence or Chris Davis… I don’t like ethier…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Pence

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s a horror film! I do like the llama stache though…

      • prezii says:
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        @Grey: hahahaha i know man, i cried a little. But the llama is nice… Next time i shave the stache ill form one and post it here! Haha ill make it into “Razzball” and put it as my avatar.. ill probably get to razzl…. Before i run outta fur…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A real man would shave his chest and leg hair and make it into a llama…

          • prezii says:
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            @Grey: that could be a little disturbing to some people.. ill keep that in mind though! Haha

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Disturbing only to people who don’t appreciate llama sculptures… And we don’t need those people…

              • Cassady says:
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                @Grey: Speaking of llamas, I finished your autobiography whilst snuggling with some this summer. It was good because I (and the llamas) also like 90′s hip hop and cooking shows.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha, thanks! Save the llamas, for your mamas, is the slogan on my not yet started llama fur company, if you want it, it’s yours…

  12. Steve says:
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    Kendrys to the Mariners for Jason Vargas. He ain’t no Marginer no more.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wow, that’s surprising… Angels are just messing up the program now…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: Well, (it says here) that they were looking to move Kendrys for an innings-eater, and I guess they did that.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Well, Vargas will be solid in away games in Seattle!

          • Steve says:
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            @Grey: Stevabermetrics says NO.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Grey:

        We getting a piece up on the deal?

        Not sure why im that excited over it, guess its a time when any deals exciting…

        Think Kendrys lost any chance of a bounceback now though, despite every days ABs.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I’m writing it up now for tomorrow…

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