It pained me to see the Cards trying to deal him but it looks like they’re high enough on him that they didn’t sell cheap. I’m glad because the guy can hit.

He had good numbers at AA and AAA with a lot of nagging injuries sprinkled in. Finally healthy now, he could put up the same power #s but expect the average to drop to around .270. I watch every game the Cards play, he’s 30, in his prime, adjusts well pitch by pitch and amazes me with some of the pitches he hits.

Fearless prediction? 30 HRs, 110 RBI, .270, .385 again. Would we like that better than Vlad in the 2nd round? You bet we would. Just don’t tell anybody.

This has been a public service announcement, my name is Hippo, and I’m a Ludaholic.

I really don’t think that his ’08 level of production is sustainable given his high K rate (23.67%), ridiculous BABIP (.349) and FB/HR rate (about 5:1 — I think league average is traditionally around 10:1).

His equally ridiculous LD rate and previous performance in the majors indicate that he might really be a dominant hitter. Time will tell, but what’s the guess on ’09?

@BSA: There’s a good chance.

CC and Hamilton both have a lot of value in our league, as they are four year keepers if they get traded. So I’m trying to spin one of them in a deal for Wright or Pujols, which would replace my Berkman/Holliday keeper.

Love the site.

Oh, and count me as someone not on the Ludwick bandwagon.

i saw your post over at roto-authority .

i’m beginning to think that you are ludwick’s “buscon” .

maybe you should buy a greyhound …. the percentage is larger .

re: Holliday vs. Berkman — I like Berkman slightly better in 2009 but it’s close enough that if you’re looking at those two for 2010 then I’d keep Holliday.

My league is H2H, with categories:
Offense- R, H, HR, RBI, SB, TB, AVG, OPS, XBH
Pitching- W, CG, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, QS

Having a helluva time deciding between the two.

I can keep Hamilton through 2010, but if I keep CC it would only be for 2009.

My other keepers are looking to be Hanley, Kinsler, Liriano and either Holliday or Berkman (still deciding on that one).

Two points to add:
1) Ludwick shouldn’t be lowered b/c he ‘came out of nowhere’. He showed the potential and finally got the playing time in 2008. Best parallel is Luis Gonzalez whose first big year with Arizona was at 32 and his monster year (51 HRs) was at 34.

2) Ludwick SHOULD be lower than these two b/c he’s a K machine. His K rate is 27% which is well above Quentin (16%) and Lee (11%). Ludwick’s .299 last year was a fluke (.349 BABIP)- with his swing and miss rate, he’s a better bet for .250 than .300. I’d say the Carloses have better AVG potential (.280-..300) and that all three are about even on power. Playing time will drive R/RBI. None of them really are SB gains. I’d rank them Lee, Quentin, Ludwick. Marcel-based Point Shares has them Ludwick, Lee, Quentin based on the assumption Ludwick keeps getting fortunate BABIP (unlikely) and that Lee’s huge Run drop from last year doesn’t bounce back up (questionable).

I’m a Luddite, I’ll admit it.

Someone has to explain to me why Quentin gets drafted in the 3rd round with his gimpy hand and Ludwick gets drafted in the 7th with his better numbers at age 30? Lee gets drafted in round 2?

Sillyness.

Lee had a freak injury last year with his pinky that won’t bother him this year. El Caballo is steady as they come.

@sean: He’s broken down like that for the last two years. It wasn’t just last year. Those are good projections for 2009 Hamilton. I could see that line and, yup, they are not 1st or high 2nd round numbers. BTW, Soriano was the oldest 27 year old ever at 33.

@big o: I’m not a big believer in pitching early, but Johan and Lincecum before Hamilton is a better bet.

@Shogun: I like Quentin better for his value, i.e., you’ll never get Hamilton as late as Quentin is going.

re: my name’s spelling — How dare you!

however , lee is 33 years old and stuck in the middle of a line-up that is offensively challenged .

hamilton , whom ron washington compared to the mick , (last year , spring training) is on one of the best hitting teams in the majors .

me ? i want both guys on my fantasy teams .
unfortunately , considering the current ADP ‘s that are floating out there now , i may have to reach for both …. unless the increasing trend to draft c.c. , lincecum , and johan in the top 10 continues ….lol .
i just hope it does .

There’s no doubt that Hamilton is an exceptional talent, but he’s the oldest 27-year old in the history of baseball (yes, even older than Carl Crawford), and I’d be surprised if he can stay injury-free in ’09. If he get 600 ABs, I see 80/32/105/.280/5 — which is nothing to scoff at, but it’s nowhere near MVP numbers…

Cruz and Davis could have a tremendous effect on his numbers too…

Dunno if you saw, but a week before Xmas, Hamilton was taken 11th in a mock at CBSSports.com (Lee was taken 23rd)

Two words for Carlos Lee – Relentless (Reliable?) Production. OK – that could be construed as three words. Once upon a long time ago, I obtained Lee for Derek Lowe and Akinori Otsuka (when Otsuka was still a setup man and both were waiver wire pickups).

There were some rumblings from the league…