Comments on: Joey Votto, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper

By: Bill

Bill — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 19:38:17 +0000

Someone is seeing Davis at 144? The few I’ve been in he’s gone MUCH earlier, I have not drafted him and it’s not been an autopick at MDC.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 03:35:03 +0000

@Schruender: BTW, I like the 158 idea. It's clever.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 03:33:01 +0000

@Schruender: It isn't really that interesting that I mention his last two months, cause that's when he started hitting the cover off the ball. If he hit the ball well in April and June, then I wouldn't mentioned those two months. As mentioned above, his homer rate in September and his BABIP in August were kinda silly, so these two months may not be complete harbingers. But his minor and major league track record show us that he's going to not only hit well for average, but decent power (which may be boosted by his home park). I don't think batting two places behind Dunn's strikeouts made much of a difference. Maybe it helped moving up to the three hole after Dunn left from a confidence boost standpoint, but I don't think Brandon Phillips and later Encarnacion added much protection.

By: Schruender

Schruender — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 03:03:44 +0000

It’s kind of interesting that you mention his last two months because that is when Adam Dunn left the Reds. Can we get a little research confirming that this wasn’t just mere coincidence?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 01:56:23 +0000

@Jeff: You, me and Bill James should get a room.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 01:27:53 +0000

Couldn’t agree more about Blotto Votto. Big-time sleeper this year.

The biggest reason he gives me a hard-on in 2009? A respectable HR/FB of 18.5 to go with an unsustainably low 30.7 FB rate. If he brings down his groundball rate (44.1 — ouch) and raises his FB rate, he could be looking at a monster year in ‘09. And oh, btw, Bill James would appear to agree with me based on his projection.

By: Grey

Grey — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 22:07:46 +0000

@IowaCubs: Votto has a bit less upside and risk. I'd go for Votto, but wouldn't be adverse to having them both if you can get Davis at a steal later.

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 22:01:33 +0000

He’s being drafted in the 8th-9th round in the mock drafts I’ve done. Seems about right. Interesting that your numbers for him aren’t that far off from what Adrian Gonzalez could do, plus the bonus of steals. Chris Davis has been drafted anywhere from 10th round to the 12th round in mock’s I’ve done.

Here’s a question… Who would be the bigger steal: Votto at 108 or Chris Davis at 144? This will be a big dilema for me on draft day.