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No one is drafting Joc Pederson.  I got an email from the barber that used to trim Fidel Castro’s beard before emigrating from Cuba and he said, “No tengo Joc Pederson en fantasy beisbol.”  Granted, he also asked for me to wire him $1000000000 to help pay for a dead aunt I hadn’t heard of previously, so the legitimacy of the email could be debated, but Pederson as non-entity is legit.  This is likely due to his known quality, as in ‘it is known he is not quality.’  If I had to guess why, I’d say it’s because people assume what they’re going to get from him — low average, some pop, prolly platoon.  Okay, that’s enough to be unenthused, I can understand that.  I think that’s selling him short like Christian Bale moving tranches as he waits for a bubble to burst.  Just to be clear, you’ve moved your enthusiasm away from a 24-year-old who had 25 HRs and 6 SBs last year and has hit that many homers for two straight seasons and has 30+ steals in two separate minor league seasons.  Yeah, no hitter has ever been better in his third full major league season.  That was sarcasm.  Lots of data has shown the third-year breakout season doesn’t exist, but there was some data there to begin with to even investigate it.  In other words, that third-year breakout theory isn’t a bastard child because there’s data there.  So, what can we expect from Joc Pederson for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year, Pederson cut his strikeouts from 29.1% to 27.3%.  It’s something.  Sure, he didn’t go from Chris Davis to Pie Traynor.  By the by, Pie had a sister, Hairpie.  Weird family.  So, Pederson got better, even if smally (hey, if bigly can be a word, smally can too).  To say he got a little better isn’t the whole picture.  He went from 1.3 Fastball runs Above Average to 14.5.  Um, come home to papa!  That’s about the same as Carlos Gonzalez, Correa and Kemp.  His Hard Contact rate was 38.7%, which is 28th in the majors with Votto, V-Mart and Kyle Seager around him.  Then his ability to drive the ball up the middle was 30th in the majors around Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte.  (Some good names in all of these lists, huh?  Yeah, well, I’m cherrypicking so much I should be working on a cherry orchard.)  He hits a decent amount of fly balls and not many ground balls.  His line drives are a bit the dog’s breakfast, but he feels like he’s due for a much better BABIP than his career .277 mark.  If he can get his strikeout percentage down to 22%, he could hit .270+, and that’s his one drawback, right?  I mean, the power is there.  A 24-year-old going into his third season after hitting 25 homers and 26 homers in his first two seasons is begging for a 35+ homer season.  35 HRs and .245 isn’t that exciting, but there’s speed here too.  Maybe it’s not 30+ steal speed as it was in the minors, but if the brakes come off, he easily takes 15 bases.   His one big Pitfall Harry that I can’t get around, he can’t hit lefties.  Big whoop!  You grab a bat off waivers on the days Pederson’s sitting vs. a tough lefty.  Guys and five girl readers, I’m so jazzed I could be A Tribe Called Quest beat.  For 2017, I’m going to give Joc Pederson the projections of 72/31/79/.252/10 in 440 ABs which is an easy number three outfielder for the price of a fifth.

  1. The Grand Poppy says:
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    Ya know Grey, I got that same email, except mine was for a great aunt. Been a rough Christmas season for the aunts. Oh well, back to real lifel, is Joc a top 60 keeper in OBP format?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha…top 60 overall? Feels a bit rich

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Like a dead aunt

  2. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Great write-up. Hope all went well for the extended weekend.

    a. I was working night and day – Christmas Eve, Christmas day and Boxing Day. So, yeah I had a great weekend. Basically, we needed to comment on our partners’ project proposals, reduce their budgets by 50% and then send our comments plus the reasons why for the reduction by today – no big deal. Nothing better than eggnog and a line-by-line budget analysis of a project plus the narrative which is discombobulated.

    b. Have to repeat that you should be a real estate agent. At the very least a Professor of logic at UC Berkeley. So, yeah I’m gonna love Joc. Hopefully as you say the training wheels come off and he comes into his own as a 24-year old, so yeah a big chance to grow this season for Joc.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. That sounds awesome! Aside from the egg nog, yuck B. Nice!

  3. Packers says:
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    Grey, so you gave the stats for a number 3 outfielder. Assuming the number 1 and 2 outfielders need to be 4 and 5 category fillers what are your thoughts on the number 4 and 5 outfielder? In general what is your line of thinking when redrafting a 5 outfielder roster?

    What are some of the documentaries coming up that look interesting?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Someone I trust told me to watch Finders Keepers on Netflix, though I haven’t yet… you watch Black Mirror?

      • BootsyBaby says:
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        @Grey:

        Black Mirror is great – watch from the beginning of Season 1 (available on Netflix I think). All episodes are solid, and are separate and distinct (different stores, characters, etc) but things start off really well…Season 3 is exclusively Netflix (no longer BBC) and remains outstanding.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, Black Mirror’s the bomb, was going to suggest it

  4. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!

    Missed you yesterday! Was super swamped.

    a. Too funny on the viagra joke! That is the funniest naturally-told believable joke on viagra I’ve ever heard.

    b. Going into a meeting as we speak.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Good luck!

  5. Tweak says:
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    Why so low his ABs? Do you think he takes a hit with an injury or does the silly OF logjam in LA not get resolved by the end of spring? Is it really platooning him that often against lefties? The guy is 24; he still has a chance to improve if he gets the opportunity. Then again, I don’t see him live that often.

    Joc seems to be a solid defensive CF, with only 6 fielding errors in his two MLB seasons. No reason not to put him out there, I think.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think he does sit vs tougher pitchers and get pulled early in certain situations… he should play enough though where it’s not a worry… he walks a decent amount which also lowers ABs and hits low in order

  6. Joe Blantons Fastball says:
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    Buxton or Joc over the next 3 years?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Buxton

  7. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    Have you ever seen Black Mass? I watched it on HBO this weekend. It was boring beyond belief.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Was that the ‘Depp puts on crazy disguise movie?’ Yeah, I saw it… Wasn’t good… Departed dusted the floor with that story already

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, it as terrible. The Departed wasn’t really that story. It was Internal Affairs rebooted as the Bulger story. If they wanted to they could have at least made Black Mass interesting. Instead it was boring.

        Have you ever seen Layer Cake with Daniel Craig?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nah, haven’t seen Layer Cake, was it good? Ex Machina was solid from last year, and Sicario and Spotlight… This year has been better for movies

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: I didn’t hate black mass. I thought Depp was really good in it. Of course I thought the departed was way over rated

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I know you, you liked Transylvania 6500 and didn’t like The Godfather, loved Ernest Scared Stupid, but never saw Citizen Kane…

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: Bahahaha

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: wow, you know a lot about bad movies….putting the Godfather and Citizen Kane in the same breath as the Departed is liking saying that the Yankees contributions to baseball are the same as the Padres because they both play baseball.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah they’re not in the same league, never said they were

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: your example says otherwise

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      My example never said anything like that, I can’t even

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      sorry, the chain you created did

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Fupcha

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: It’s old probably 05′. It’s classic, I love gangster movies, and Layer Cake is one of the best. It’s English, but is excellent. Find it and watch it. Matthew Vaughn directed it.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Cougs said she liked it, saw it at Sundance… I think she might’ve just been location-dropping…It’s what I deal with….

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: Hahaha! My wife’s location-drops are the supermarket or Target.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  My wife location drops to remind me all the cool places she used to go before me

            • Big Odio says:
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              @Ralph Lifshitz: I liked Layer Cake, good flick

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Your not contrarian to be contrarian viewpoint is see thru

                • Big Odio says:
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                  @Grey: no it really was a solid movie, now the Departed on the other hand was not great…it was barely good

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    The departed was a solid movie, not greatest, not just passable

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Grey: you’ll have to excuse me while I go watch Pee Wee’s Big Adventure

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      That’s a solid movie, you gonna say you don’t like it now?

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Grey: oh hells no, that movie was great. Wasnt that the introduction of Tim Burton?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Maybe LeVar Burton, no Tim Burton that I remember

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Grey: I just looked it up and Pee Wee was Tim Burtons first feature length flick.

                      And I saw you Fuptcha me, that is patent pending! My patent

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha… oh yeah that was Burton… I thought you meant Midnight Madness, my bad

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Grey: I just remember they went to the Pabst Blue Ribbon brewery

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It was the best worst movie, hard to beat, but you can try

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Grey: Im going to put Over the Edge out there as one of my best worst movies ever

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Don’t know that one

          • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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            @Grey: Layer Cake is great for 2 main reasons: Sienna. Miller.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              You’ve. Sold. Me. Rawr.

  8. Raoul Duke says:
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    With the regression you expect from Jonathan Villar would you deal him for Danny Duffy?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want more

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That song was a lot more interesting before there were all of these websites where you could look up the lyrics

  9. So was Busta Rhymes…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      All music, really… A simpler time

  10. Here’s to hoping your Chrismukkah was Mary and full of virgins!

    Your Festivus Miracles were a plenty…and your bagels were shut up tight and full of locks…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I got my bagel on lox! Bummed about Leia…

      Hope you had a great holiday!

      • @Grey: I hope I did too!

        She’s never gonna dance again…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If Michael J Fox dies, I might not recover

          • @Grey: Let’s just hope that it will not be parking-related…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Or parasailing

  11. Wake me up before you Han Solo…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I want your slimy piece of worm ridden filth!

  12. These guilty droids have got no rhythm…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Lando ’90

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m your Han!

  13. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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    Sooooo…….Transylvania 6-5000 isn’t a good movie???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha… its soundtrack has the first Tupac track ever

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Grey: For real?!?! That AND Nothing But Trouble!?!? Pac killing those monster comedies.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh crap, nope, you’re right, got my terrible horror comedies mixed up

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Grey: Oh man, I was truly excited about that.

            I would watch either one of those movies right now.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Best terrible movie ever — Midnight Madness!

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: is that the Michael J Fox one where they go on the scavenger hunt?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yes! Oh my god, best ever… I think wendie jo sperber was in it too

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: The sister from Back to the Future? Woof

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      So sexy!

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: you so want a threesome with her and Mindy Cohn

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Oh hells yeah! I need to rough ride in Jumbo Clown’s style!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ugly girl crush!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I also know he did not contribute to the Love At First Bite soundtrack either

      • Count de Monetball says:
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        Ok MEG, the whole Tupac thing caught my attention. I looked for it, but 2-Pac would have been like 14-years old. Strangely enough, I could not find a list of the soundtrack for T-6-5000, can’t believe I just spent 20 minutes researching that.

        Hope you had an awesome Holiday!

        • Count de Monetball says:
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          Ahhhh, NBT, turrable movie, just turrable….

          “Now I clown around when I hang around with the underground…”

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            That’s what I’m sayin’!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I can’t believe you’re not excited about researching that! Hope you had a good one too!

  14. Matty-o says:
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    How would you rank DeGrom, Price, Salazar?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      My rankings will be out in January… prolly degrom, Salazar

      • Matty-o says:
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        @Grey:
        Thanks Grey! I always appreciate your insight

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      If I’m being real, this doesn’t make me sad… who would buy a record today?

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: *raises hand, gives dirty look*

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hehe, yeah!

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: I love my vinyl collection, Ive been collecting for well over 25 years and never plan to stop

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I don’t have the love for vinyl, don’t get it…

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: the velvet sounds of vinyl.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, does nothing for me

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: you’re a friggin millenial

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I try my best!

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      you being a millenial is not making your wife any younger

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      The whole point of a cougar is that she’s older…

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      Here is where it gets confusing. Are they cougars because they are older or because they are older than you?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Can’t have a Cougar that is younger than you

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      This brings up an interesting question. So a woman is a cougar when she is single or marries a much much younger man…like yourself. Now lets say a cougar is dating a younger man, which makes her a cougar by definition, breaks up with that younger man and ends up dating a guy 3 years older than her, so by definition she loses her cougar status because she left the Yelich zone (my term).

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, that all tracks for me…. A cougar, by definition, is a temp adjective, like hungry. You can be hungry, eat then not hungry.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, it’s not a sustainable business obviously, but if it wasn’t for UGHH, so much of the indy hip hop music I love never would have made it into people’s hands. They pushed the culture of late 90’s early 200’0’s hiphop nationally and internationally. It was the first place really rare hiphop albums (meaning CDs etc), clothing brands etc could reach a national audience. Every indie hip-hop scene was represented there and they had a lot of dope promos where you’d get tons of free merch.

        As I said not a sustainable business, but it’s just another victim of streaming services. I spend nothing on music because of it but I don’t feel as connected to it. There was something better about with a stack of new CDs or vinyls and spending time going through the liner notes. Looking at who produced what, where it was recorded, weird samples they cleared. The game just ain’t the same.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I don’t disagree with you, but to play devil’s advocate, if we were in the late 90s technology still then there would be no internet, no hip hop websites, no Soundcloud allowing people to reach their audience immediately, no ability to download or listen to a song immediately, amongst other things

          • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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            @Grey: and no razzball baseball podcast…! that’s a horrible thought. just nick capozzi talking to himself in a van somewhere!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Which is what Nick is doing now too

              • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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                @Grey: we all have to deal with the carrie fisher news in our own way

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  It effin sucks

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: It’s hey day was more 04-08. It was the hip-hop website w. everything from blogs, to streaming stations of new music, and you had the ability to sample new stuff. Maybe people reach their audience immediately, but who’s actively finding the audience? UGHH found the audience. I’m sue someone will fill that void, but it’s important to understand what they did for underground hip-hop. Rappers made a living selling music back then. There’s less and less successful rappers now.

            • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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              @Ralph Lifshitz: we didn’t have Future back then either!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Sounds like the general population… With more at the top and less at the bottom doing their thing and making a living… I’m so with you on this, I can’t argue for the big guys, but I will say that I believe if there’s a need (which UGHH may or may not have filled) someone else will fill it

        • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz: Agreed. sad sad day.

    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: Aww man. I was just telling you about all the stuff I’d get from there. The freebies were the shit.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Aw, poor Noisewater

  15. Big Odio says:
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    Here is the Over the Edge movie I talked about above. Feels like I’ve linked this before

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q63sfLwbvbQ

    Its Matt Dillon’s first flick and the way I got street cred with your third favorite fantasy elitist.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I totally remember you linking to that before, but never saw it… Who is my third favorite fantasy elitist?

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: His initials are RW and he thinks my name is Jeff

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh, that dipshizz…

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: Berry, Cockcroft and Wolf…your 3 favorites

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Cockcroft’s okay, and that’s all I have to say there

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: he’s a great person…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Me?

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: you have your very very rare moments

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha, thanks!

  16. Andy says:
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    Hey Grey! Struggling with my keeper selection. What are your thoughts? 12 team $260 budget with R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG, and K, K/9, QS, SV, HD, ERA, & WHIP. Keep 6.
    Arenado $18
    Encarnacion $16
    Dahl $1
    Colome $1
    K. Davis $7
    D. Travis $2
    T. Anderson $1
    B. Hamilton $12
    Desclafani $1
    Saunders $1
    Thanks!
    Andy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arenado, Dahl, Travis, Davis, Edwin, then toss up… Prolly go Anderson

      • Andy says:
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        @Grey: great, thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  17. bossmanjunior333 says:
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    How much does Pederson’s value increase in OBP leagues?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A ton, he’s top 35 OBP in the majors

  18. goodfold2 says:
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    with this lineupk and assuming i match a 12 million bid on quintana (hopefully it’s only in that range not more) i’ll have 63.777 mil for 11 spots (5 of them are bench, urena is one of those, reynaldo lopez till he gets a job, both have too many innings to demote) so an average of 5.798 per.
    C d’arnaud
    CI (2) beltre
    MI (2) segura
    OF (3) altherr/rosario
    util (1) drury (could fit into any CI/MI/OF spot)

    and this ranking
    stanton/son of donald/votto/freeman/villar/braun/cano
    cargo 1/E5/cespedes/pujols/upton/zobrist’/cain/jones
    i’m attempting to tier them such that i’ll only attempt to win one of each tier at most (and bid smaller amounts as the tiers go downward, so if my bid on stanton is the most but the owner matches it would go on down to donald or votto only not both). we can bid 1-6 years on any bid, and if we cut anybody over 1 million we have to eat half of it (i got f’d 2 years ago having matched a 12 million j.werth bid 3 DAYS before it was announced he needed wrist surgery, which sapped the shit out of his power since, ended up eating 6 mil twice. if our damn process wasn’t so freakin early this wouldn’t have been matched of course)
    tiers probably looking like (assumed years of bid in () )
    T1. stanton (4), donald (2), votto (2), freeman (4) (this tier probably the 19-25 million tier)
    T2. villar (3), braun (1) cano (2) cargo 1 (2) (16-22 million tier)
    T3. E5 (1), cespedes (2) pujols (1), upton (2) 14-18 tier)
    T4. zobrist (2) cain (2) jones (2) (10-14 tier)

    1. do those years look about right?
    2. does the bid amounts per tier look about right? i’m saying on a value scale, leaguewise in past years we’ve seen contracts 22-26 in some instances to get what’s perceived as top guys. right now trout costs 29.75, miggy 22.25. some cheaper that should be more. we now have higher budgets but it’s also much more a wild wild west out here as in past years we could’ve just extended guys by adding 6 million to their contracts, not anymore. more skill in team building from this point forward.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      1. Votto for 1 2. Pujols prolly in T4, but these are all very close and look about right

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Actually, on Votto, it’s not OBP is it?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Meh, on second thought, keep Votto as you have him

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Grey: ok, move pujols down, it’s OPS/holds added 6X6. those contract year amounts and tier bids look bout right. due to possible injuries i’m really loath to give ANYBODY more than 4 years. guys who could fall completely off a cliff at any time no more than 1 (pujols/E5)

  19. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    I give up Adam Duvall
    I get Gary Sanchez

    Make the deal?

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @Scott Kimmel: keep forever at no prices keeper/dynasty? give me the kraken (and some rum too)

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        yes keep forever in a dynasty/keeper league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sanchez

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        ok grey i am making the deal if I am reading you correctly

        • Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarves says:
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          @Scott Kimmel: this means you don’t end up with duvall at the end of it.

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