At some point in the near future, you knew I was going to put Jesus Montero on your fantasy radar. Well, here we are. The first big question is, are the Yankees handing over catching duties to a rookie who can’t catch? As Jacques Cousteau might’ve said, I can’t fathom it. The Yankees were thinking similarly when they traded him for Cliff Lee for a brief moment in July in Buster Olney’s mind. (I think they’d probably do the trade now if they had a DeLorean.) Maybe the Yankees can have Austin Romine catch and Montero hit. Or do they only do that shizz in Pee Wee Leagues? Could Montero be the DH? I suppose. But you know when you suppose, you make a supp out of you and me. Wait, that’s wrong. The Yankees could do well going a bit younger in at least one spot on their roster. The other Jesus knows they’re old enough. So what can we expect of Jesus Montero for 2011 fantasy baseball?
He’s definitely capable of contributing with his bat. Last year in 504 plate appearances, he had the line of 65/21/75/.289 in Triple-A, which looks like a slight down year when you see his previous year at High and Double-A, but Montero’s 2nd half in Triple-A was torrid, i.e., things started clicking for him pretty quickly. Like a bunch of holy rollers, scouts have high praise for Jesus. In 2011, I could see him putting up a season similar to Buster Posey did in 2010. 15-20 homers and a good average. The thing that really had Posey stand out — as if you need me to tell you — he only did it in 115 games. I could see Montero following the same path. Posada gets hurt in June, here comes Montero. In redraft leagues, I would not draft him if he doesn’t have a starting job coming out of Spring Training. Definitely worth owning in keepers. The tough part about Montero is 2011 might be the last time he has catcher eligibility, depending on the health of Hip Hop Jorge. In 400 ABs and a June call up, I’d give him 55/16/65/.290. The clincher, or cincher if you drop your L’s, is he just turned 21-years-old. Just in time to get some Four Loko before it’s pulled from the shelves. BTW, don’t you want to put some Four Loko in a hummingbird feeder then shoot the pepped-up hummingbird with a bow at the moon? Hmm, maybe it’s just me.
largely agreed. Montero’s first half was astoundingly putrid in Scranton. And he has very little experience. I think the Yankees have made it clear that Posada will be DHing as much as they can – so Montero will get the shot unless he fumbles it. PT an issue, but it is C we are talking.
It’s a big adjustment, and he’s historically needed adjusting. I probably don;t want him in mixed regardless…but keeper for sure.
4 Loko! ha….. that just made this post!
@SteveP: I hope Montero gets the job out of Spring Training if for no other reason just to see what he can do.
@Tony: Hehe
In a 12 team mixed draft keeper league, who is going to be more valuable based on ADP?
Posey
Santana
JMontero
Huge Giants fan here, but I am having a lot of trouble working Posey into my draft strategy – I am a year too late.
@Watch it Buster: Yeah, you are a year too late. As of right now, Montero will be the best value based on ADP, but the ADPs right now are nowhere accurate. I imagine Montero will see an upswing in ADP in February/March.
Is he really all that interesting in keeper leagues? I had Carlos Santana for $1 last season and you still recommended I keep other players instead. It seems to me like good new catchers can always be snatched up off waivers during the season. Miguel two seasons ago….Posey and Santana last season… I don’t know, I just have a hard time caring about catchers in keeper leagues.
@SwaggerJackers: Depends on your league depth. In some leagues, he’s great for keepers.
No CHONE projections this year.
I guess the dude (Sean) got a real job with, like, an actual baseball team.
@Al Swedgin: Wow, hadn’t heard that. Guess it makes sense.
@Grey: Yeah, when you leave us all for the big time one of these days, I hope you leave us a nicer note than this: http://www.baseballprojection.com/
@Al Swedgin: Well, we at least know he wasn’t hired by a team’s Customer Relations Department.
@Al Swedgin: @Grey: He’s a real charmer.
Player: “Hey man. How’s my BABIP looking so far this year?”
Stat guy: “Buzz off.”
@Al Swedgin: Sour grapes from not being as accurate at some other systems? Or maybe he thought he was actually going to get paid for that internship.
@Steve: Hey, Mister, who says buzz off? I do, now buzz off!
Does Tulo’s value change at all now the he’s locked up in Rockyland forever?
@SwaggerJackers: Why would it?
@Grey:
what are your thoughts on how all of this (montero/posada) will translate to the yankee pitching staff ?
if you were c.c. would you look forward to some kid calling the game ?
at least cervelli has 90 games behind the plate .
imo …. this is why guys like kendall have extended careers .
if montero’s inexperience causes the staff’s era to rise 1/2 a point ,
is it worth the 18 home runs that he might provide ?
@big o: It could get ugly back there, but if there’s a chance he’s hurting CC then he might have his own personal catcher. The Yankees are too big of a market team to let a rookie catcher mess them up. I honestly think it’s going to be a June to midseason call up and he’s going to share time at catcher and DH. If he was on the Pirates, he’d sink or swim on Opening Day, but the Yankees are saying Montero will have the chance so I guess we’ll see.
*****BTW, I’m doing my first mock today for Yahoo’s fantasy magazine. I’ll keep people abreast. Hehe, I said abreast.***
@Grey: It always come back to food with you, doesn’t it? (emoticon).
Please speak up if this getting a bit too Keith Law!
BTW – you have rankings or going commando?
@Grey: If I’m not mistaken, I see a pair of abreasts there…
@Steve: I have most of my rankings done, so partly commando.
@Jake in Columbus: Ooh… I see them now too.
@Grey:
Good luck with the mock! If possible, give us a heads up when the magazine hits the stands, I always look forward to buying those every off-season.
I’ll wait’ till end of December to start mocking again because at the moment mdc rooms don’t get filled at all.
@Grey: Someone was trying to tell me he’ll be worse now that he has “nothing to play for” AKA the free agency motivation Beltre needs to put up good numbers.
@Grey: Wow, that was quick (that’s what she said!)
Without wanting to give away the secret ingredient in your special sauce, are you able to build your rankings purely on what a player has done, or do you take a little peek at ZiPS for 2011 too?
Not that anyone needs an excuse to watch It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but Utley and Howard are in tonight’s episode.
And for those who play razzball, Padres non-tendered Gwynn, Jr. I haven’t played razzball but assume that Gwynn was quite valuable.
@Eddy: Probably beginning of February, but I’ll tell you. Did MDC charge last year? I wonder now since they charge if it’ll be less people. Also, you should grab 11 other Razzballers and do a mock.
@SwaggerJackers: I don’t buy that with Tulo. Think he’ll be fine.
@Steve: Well, I had to do about 200 player profiles for Yahoo’s magazine, so I was in that mode. I don’t look at ZIPS until I’m done because they take forever to come out. I just look a player’s Fangraphs page and then do my own math.
@royce!: I’ve only watched that show twice, but both times I loved it. Really should watch it more.
@ Grey: do you plan to do 2011 Fantasy Outlooks for any of Arencibia, LaPorta, Holland, Sale, Daniel Hudson, or Jarrod Parker? Not all are “true” rookies, but all have a ton of upside.
@Nando: Yeah, no, no, no, no, no. Only true rookies get outlooks. Those others will get some sorta acknowledgment though.
@Grey:
If I’m not mistaken you can still participate in the drafts;however, you need to pay if you want to be able to create one.
Last season I payed $15 to mock until the last day of spring training which was quite useful. So far all I’ve seen is a one year plan and a monthly payment plan, which is a bummer.
And just to double check, you can’t post your mock results correct? If so, any clue as to when you’ll participate in a mock where you can publish the results?
Your mocks are pretty much my “constitution” for the entire off season, which I then go amending with each new sleeper/schmohawk/rankings post.
@ Grey: cool, thanks. Sale still qualifies as a rookie, though, no?
@Eddy: Yeah, $15 isn’t bad. Not sure when I will participate in a mock that I’ll actually write a post for. I’m not going to write a post for this one since it’s for the magazine. I can still tell you my team though. About to start in five minutes.
@Nando: I think so, but he’s not getting a post as of right now. That could change.
Some Twitter talk (twalk?) that the White Sox are closing in on a deal with the original Donkey.
@Eddy: Howard and Crawford with the 12th and 13th picks.
@Grey: Hah. I did that in my H2H league a few years back.
Didn’t quite work out…
@Steve: We’re gonna be all right. They have learned to work together.
@Grey: I’m please to hear that. I didn’t really need to add the second sentence – a bit unecessary.
I think it was the year Howard hit .150 for the first three months of the season.
If memory serves (and you know it does), I made the playoffs anyway and got robbed.
Again.
@Steve: Yeah, in roto two guys that give you 60 homers and 50 steals isn’t bad.
@Grey: See? I’ve been a roto player at heart all along (emoticon).
@Steve: Sounds like it’s a Dunn deal. Oofa!
4 years, 56 million.
@Steve: Hehe… Not a bad deal for the Sox.
@Grey: Yeah – feels about right (like I’d know)
And there are no killer lefties in the AL Central are there?
And it’s a hitter’s park. Mmmmmm…
@Steve: Oh – except for Liriano, that is.
@Steve: My fake fake team is looking stacked.
@Grey: Is that what you mean by keeping us abreast?
I’m on fire!
@Grey: Details! Past Howard/Crawford. And are you at liberty to name drop the notable “experts” you are drafting with?
@Steve: Ha
@Chris: It’s the Yahoo and Rotowire guys.
Howard
Crawford
Kinsler
Dread Pirate
CC
Mini Donkey
Latos
Haren
Oswalt
Coco Cordero
Hawaiian
Morrow
Valverde
Espinosa
@Grey: After that face-pulling incident, I’d have no problem with you taking Roy a couple of rounds earlier.
Are you loading up on pitching a little earlier than normal?
@Steve: Nah, this hitting is just very shallow. Only 3 OFs, no MI, no CI.
@Grey: Ah – gotcha.
Seems odd that quite a few of these mocks draft a roster that most ‘perts would never actually play in a league with.
@Steve: But it’s probably the default Yahoo setting, right?
@Steve: It is default, I believe. Also has 2 utility guys, but whatever on those.
@Grey: You shoulda grabbed Thornton and Takahashi late (emoticon)
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/another-day-another-couple-of-new-closers
I’m looking for a link I consistently forget. It’s the website that lets you overlay hits onto another team’s park. Anyone have that?
@Grey:
latos in the 7th ?
@Steve: Yeah, I shoulda. Oh, well. Last ten picks weren’t ideal.
@Black Beard: Don’t know it, but if you find it let me know.
@big o: Yup
@Grey: Ignore me, I’m the 20/20 hindsight guy.
Re: Latos, can we deduce from this that your fears over his ’10 workload have eased?
@Steve: I wouldn’t deduce that. I’d deduce that I was under-prepared and it’s December 2nd.
@Steve: At least I wasn’t the person who took Bautista in the 2nd round and Carlos Santana in the 5th.
@Grey: Fair enough – and rightly so!
@Grey: Quite so. Time of year and degree of preparation no excuse there.
Elsewhere – I’ve posted tis here before, but now I know your karaoke proclivities, it just makes it all the sweeter:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoC4yWWxFGs
@Steve: That video was a level of ridiculous I can only hope to achieve one day. BTW, I don’t think it’s clear cut Takahashi and Thornton being closers.
@Grey: Yeah, I was exaggerating a bit there. Definitely guys to keep an eye on, though.
Inasmuch as I’m keeping an eye on anyone. Have to admit (and this will come as no surprise to anyone – if indeed there *is* anyone – reading my comments here of late) that I’m having a hard time even thinking about fantasy baseball right now.
@Steve: You’re hitting summer, makes sense. I wish there was some way to have baseball in the winter without moving to the southern hemisphere.
@Steve: Did you do fantasy football at all this year?
@Grey: Bummer. I kick myself each time (which is likely now in the tens) I don’t bookmark this website.
The reason I was asking was because I wanted to overlay Dunn’s hits at Nationals Park over Comerica. Oh well, I’ll find it eventually.
@Grey: Wow, mini-donkey R6?! Shouldn’t he be available much later (R10-12)?
Alright, that was a pain in the ass…but I found it. Dunn would have had 7-10 more homeruns last year and 10-12 in 2009 had he played his home games at Comerica. Hmm, think I’ll contact that Dunn owner…
http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/
@Black Beard: Excuse me, that was horribly incorrect. It actually looks like he would have less homeruns…? I’m sleep deprived, someone else will have to parse this data.
@simply fred: Definitely early but with Crawford I didn’t want to get stuck with Sandoval or Figgy, the next two 3rd basemen.
@Black Beard: Thanks for the link! I wouldn’t worry about Dunn, he’s around a 40 homer guy wherever he plays.
@Grey: Nah – no fantasy football this year. Didn’t get many takers for the know-next-to-nothing league.
I have just finished reading a fantastic book about the 1958 NFL Championship Game between the Colts and the Giants though.
I guess I’m finding it hard to think about FBB when we don’t even know where certain players are going to land, and there’s a small thing called Spring Training that’s yet to get under way…
@Black Beard: It looks like you were right the first time. Just changing the layout doesn’t account for a lot of things like fence height, wind, elevation, etc. But at a glace it looks like Dunn could have a shot at an extra 3-7 homers on the White Sox. I’m just hoping he has OF eligibility next year on ESPN.
@Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude: Thanks. I think all of his starts were at 1B last year.
@Grey:
Thanks for posting up those first few rounds! Would it be too much to ask to post up all your picks? I’d love to shoot off some questions.
And Bautista in the 2nd round? Come on now.
And you sure stacked up on speed!
@Grey: Gotcha’. Big O got him #151 (R13) in his slow draft; Figgins #185, Sandoval #216.
@Steve: What was the name of it?
@Eddy: I’m writing this from my iPhone. My internet’s out. Ask me tomorrow, and I’ll give you the rest of the team.
@Grey: The Best Game Ever by Mark Bowden (Black Hawk Down).
Is as much about sport and the men that play it (not to mention what a watershed the ’58 championship game was for the NFL) as it is about football, so fairly confident in saying you don’t have to know football all that much to enjoy it.
Wonderful stuff.
@Grey: A few months ago I was sitting next to a kid about 7 or 8 years old talking to his friend about baseball. He proclaimed to his friend that Bautista was his favorite player. I damn near spit out my shark tar tar. I wanted soooooooo bad to lecture the kid on why Bautista is shit and he needed to pick another player to idolize. I mean, when I was a kid I loved Ozzie Smith and Kirby Puckett. BASEBALL PLAYERS. Discretion got the better of me, though, and I spared the kid from my rant.
I’m sure his new favorite player this year will be whoever is leading the league in HRs at the time. Prolly Brandon Inge. Poor kid.
What is the best possible situation for Berkman? I really want to sneak him in under the radar this year, but I’m beginning to wonder if he’s worth my stalking.
Per Rotoworld, Yankees attempted to trade for Russell Martin just before he was non-tendered by the Dodgers.