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There is a stupid premium on Jered Weaver.  Stupid as in dumb.  Not stupid as in, “Yo, Grey your feathered hair is stupid fresh!  Farrah Fawcett is prolly jealous in heaven.  Flap your wings, Greyseph Hawkins, you are my angel on earth.  I love you.”  In the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball, I went over some of this so if you’ve been there, read that, skip ahead until the sentence starting, “Your claim to fame…”  Last year, Weaver’s K-rate bottomed out to its lowest since his rookie year with a 6.77 K/9.  That ranks 58th for starters.  He’s between Masterson, Kuroda, Ervin Santana, Paul Maholm.  That’s eeny meeny miny no.  To go further with one of the guys there, Kuroda’s K-rate was 6.84, his walk rate was 2.09 and his xFIP was 3.67.  Weaver’s walk rate and xFIP were 2.15 and 4.18.  Oh, and Kuroda’s fastball velocity sits around 92.  Weaver’s is at 88.  If you were just looking at those numbers with no names attached, you’d concur Kuroda is headed for a better season in 2013 than Weaver.  You, sir, are a darn fine concurrer.  Speaking of Weaver’s fastball, he had the 8th worst velocity in the majors.  Your grandmother could throw faster.  Granted, your grandmother was a receptionist at the Miami-based Biogenesis of America clinic, but still.  For xFIP, Weaver was the 27th worst in the majors between Volquez, Arroyo, Buehrle and Nolasco.  Those guys couldn’t get into the Who’s Who Among American Baseball Players with $39.95 and a B+ GPA.   So why is Jered Weaver overrated for 2013 fantasy baseball?

Because he’s ranked so damn high.  Honestly, I’m trying to find one positive for him.  Your claim to fame is being the backpacker in the background of the Wikipedia photo for a yeoman, but what’s Weaver’s claim to fame?  A guy with a diminishing strikeout rate and pitch velocity?  I bet if you sat down with that yeoman to multiply your smarts, you couldn’t figure out one reason why Weaver is routinely being drafted in the 4th round, about 3 rounds before I have him.  He’s a fly ball pitcher in a favorable park, and in a division that has two other favorable fly ball parks, so he’s not going to be unusable, but fly balls will start to leave any park when they’re coming in at 88 MPH.  In the past, he was causing batters to pop up — hit weak fly balls.  His infield fly ball rates plummeted last year.  Next stop for those fly balls is knocking over some bratty Orange County kid’s nachos in the outfield stands.  My crystal ball says there’s a better chance he has a 4.30 ERA than within .20 of last year’s 2.81 ERA.  Yes, my crystal ball deals in probabilities rather than certainties.  What do you want for $9.99 out of the back of a comic book?  I should’ve put that money towards getting me into the Who’s Who Among American Fantasy Baseball Bloggers.

 

  1. Eric W says:
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    Is it to early to Photoshop Jedd Gyorko’s face over my girlfriends in all the pictures we took together in Niagara falls?

    • Brian says:
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      @Eric W:

      LOL! already did that with my wife’s face.

      Jedd for president.

      • Paddyman says:
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        @Brian: Pinch hit it too! I look up SD games first thing to see what he’s done. Can’t help myself. Yes it’s only ST, but boy the lads got some pop.

        • JoeC says:
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          @Paddyman: That’s “Polish pop” to you, good sir!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eric W: Cougar out: Jedd in

  2. TheNewGuy says:
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    Too right, always thought Weaver was overvalued, hopefully this the year it finally falls apart for him. In another ballpark he’d have been mincemeat much sooner.

    Ha nice yeomans pic, sure we could all clam thats us. Good ol’ tower of London.

    Anyway deciding on Altuve as one of my final keepers. Know I wanna keep him but not sure how long, narrowed it down to:
    1 year ($6), 2 years ($9).

    Its an OBP league so makes Altuve’s good average a bit less valuable, and its only a 10 teamer, but im not sure. How many years would you go?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Ha… It could be all of us, it looks like a tourist… 2 years…

  3. nightpandas says:
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    Top of the morning sir,

    Got to pick my keepers on friday in my 15 team roto. (7×7 with OBP/SLG and K/9 & QS)
    My first 4 are: Pujols/Kinsler/Kemp/Bruce. Need to decide on my last 3. Won last year (thanks) and have no 2nd or 3rd round pick. Also no CI spot but I do have one util spot.

    Pick 3 of : Rizzo/ARam/Rollins/Medlen/Latos/Dickey

    • Johnny Five says:
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      @nightpandas:

      Medlen/Dickey/Rizzo

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @nightpandas: Medlen, Latos, Rizzo – I don’t trust Dickey making the jump from Citi/NL to Rogers/AL…. at all.

  4. emporersmonkey says:
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    I never have liked this dude, mainly because he looks like chop-top from Texas Chainsaw Massacare 2. Plus his mullet is f’ing ridiculous.

    • JoeC says:
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      @emporersmonkey: C’mon. I don’t like him because he plays for the hated Angels and is not nearly as good as his stats, but one can do nothing but admire a man who, in today’s world, proudly wears his mullet strong.

      There’s not many a girly man in America today who would dare to so freely flout conventional wisdom. Rock on, Jered Weaver (but please suck at pitching).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @emporersmonkey:Well, a mullet is business on top, party in the back…

  5. Justin says:
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    So last night im in the middle of a mock draft, and these two kids start busting my balls because I took Goldy,Hosmer,Rizzo,Moore,Harvey,and Samardjza to name a few.Those two kids have no idea what a good team looks like.

    What is your answer for those people who are questioning where Goldys rbi’s are going to come from?? A lot of people are saying he is over hyped, but a lot of the “perts” Have him relatively high. Shit rotowire has him at #21 overall, I’m all in on him just like Chris Sale last year (thank you for that last year, also thank you for convincing me to hold onto him after he was moved to the pen)

    • weas says:
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      @Justin: The Diamondbacks were 7th in OBP last year and 8th in runs, Goldschmidt will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.

      • Josh says:
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        So…. will Montero and Goldschmidt have a good amount of opportunities to drive in runs?

    • Fungazi says:
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      @Justin: He’s going to have Eaton, Hill & Prado in front of him. Those guys will get on base enough for RBI opportunities.

    • Joe says:
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      @Justin: Let’s try this again (I’m new). Goldschmidt will be batting 4th or 5th after Eaton, Prado, and Hill. Goldy/Montero will be 4th/5th; not sure which order. All good hitters. PLENTY of opportunities for RBIs. The Dbacks aren’t the Miami Marlins.

      And Kubel (and possibly Montero) willl be batting AFTER Goldschmidt so plenty of Runs are on the horizon too.

    • JoeC says:
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      @Justin: Your first assignment is to not pay attention to “what the kids say”. You do your talking with winning and that is all.

      Your second assignment is to pick who you want and believe in. That’s the fun part of fantasy baseball. Being right about your preferences is just the whip cream on the sundae.

      As far as Goldy goes, I think Grey has pushed him into the over-hyped category at this point (at least among Razzball readers). This is not to say he’s going to be Hosmer 2.0, but I think it’s a bit much to expect him to be the 4th-best first baseman at this point in his career. Maybe next year.

      But pick who you want. Prove me (and them) wrong. Then spike the football in the end zone and eat yo’ popcorn. :)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: Don’t worry about runs and RBIs, worry about HRs, SBs and average, in that order…

    • Tony says:
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      @Justin: yeah i wouldn’t worry about those dudes.

      Now the semi-comparison of SALE last yr and GOLDY this yr is a little off. Sale was a favorite of razzers last yr BUT he was going in the 15th round on….. Big difference with Goldy, he’s a top 5 or earlier round guy, alot more risk attached to that guy when you’re sitting there and there’s some players with better track records…..

      Personally, I’m not buying GOLDY this yr, he’d have to fall to my 5th round pick. There’s too many other “if they’re healthy” FOR SURES in the 3rd and 4th rounds where i see him go….

      But hey thats just me…..

  6. Buffalo Runner says:
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    i am gonna draft an anti-grey team, just for shits and giggles.

    rd1- pitcher
    rd2- posey
    rd-3 middle infielder
    rd-4 kimbrel
    rd-5 middle infielder
    rd-6- weaver
    rd-7 another middle infielder
    etc.
    etc.

    ill take a 2nd catcher too, just for good measure.

    • JoeC says:
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      @Buffalo Runner: I’ve tried that 3 years running in RCL leagues and it’s failed each time. :)

      But maybe the strategy is sound and it’s just the implementer who’s flawed?

      • Buffalo Runner says:
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        @JoeC:

        it’s you.

        you have to remember to take 2-3 catchers. :)

        catchers seem to get hurt a lot.

  7. Damian says:
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    Grey, need some keeper advice for my 16-team nl-only team (it’s super deep, yo). Trying to decide between a $6 playing with fier(s) or a $10 cishek sandwich. I like fiers more, but closers can go for crazy prices sometimes in such a deep league and accidentally punting the category has been pretty costly historically. Oh yeah, IP is a 6th category in this league. Thoughts? Find a new league isn’t an acceptable answer…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Damian: Fiers, not close

  8. MrMojoRisin says:
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    Some expert was just reviewing his team in an experts league and was ecstatic that he got Weaver and Zimmermann to lead his staff in a standard 5×5 league.
    I just giggled and wished I was in their league where my 5th starter was gonna be more valuable than his expensive #1 b/c of a lack of K’s.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MrMojoRisin: Maybe he thought he was in a 4×4

  9. Beastman says:
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    Totally agree on this! Hopefully the wool will still be pulled over plenty of manager’s eyes (Weaver, wool, wakka wakka) when it comes time to draft/bid for “name” pitcher in the early rounds.

    Grey, I set up a Razzball league last night and am just awaiting permission to the Google docs spreadsheet. If you didn’t receive it, is there something else I need to be doing?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Beastman: Agreed… You should’ve received confirmation by now, if you haven’t let me know and I’ll look into it…

      • Beastman says:
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        @Grey: I just checked now and I don’t have permission. This may be a result of my ineptitude, but I’m going to hold out hope that it’s not. Let me know!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Looking into it…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You’re added now…

  10. FG 250 says:
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    The value with Weaver is volume. He has a very deceptive delivery making it very difficult for righties to pick up the ball. Plus he’s like 6’7″ so he doesn’t need to throw 95 mph to be effective. I’m not saying he isn’t overrrated because I don’t have him in my top 10, but he did throw 200+ innings the 3 previous years to last year. Put him down for 215 IP and 7 K/9 and you have 167 Ks. As long as he can keep getting weak contact, he’s good for solid ratios and a lot of wins (18 or so) with that lineup. You can’t predict 18 wins for 95% of pitchers and he’s one of them (even though wins can be flucky, but not for a team that may win 100).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @FG 250: I don’t buy this, sorry…

  11. rainbowtrout says:
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    morning greystachio, quick query:
    need to keep 1 from (forfeit draft pick for round listed):
    p. fielder 2nd round
    j. hamilton 3rd round
    d. price 4th round
    b. posey 7th round
    r.a. dickey 19th round

    was leaning posey but dickey may be solid too, what do you think? I would prefer a hitter but keeping an ace in the 19th round would allow me to focus on hitting in draft. (2 keepers total, other is trout).

  12. Mr Gray: You are in my Who’s Who Among American Fantasy Baseball Bloggers if that makes any difference..

    E S T R A D A !!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @T Moore: Thanks, T Moore!

  13. Carnac says:
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    “Who’s Who Among American Fantasy Baseball Bloggers?”

    It’s cheaper to get into the “Who’s Who Among Belgian Fantasy Baseball Bloggers.”

    Oddly enough, it’s more expensive to get into the “Who’s Who Among Fantasy Baseball Bloggers of the Starbucks on Glendale in Silver Lake.”

    • Jack Full Bush says:
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      @Carnac: the hipsters have ruined it, might be cheaper to go to the Red Lion for morning beers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Carnac: Easily still to get into “Who’s Who Among Screenwriters of the Starbucks of Los Angeles.”

      • Jack Full Bush says:
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        @Grey: but isn’t that every writer at every Starbucks?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Quiet, I’m listening to smooth jazz over the surround sound…

          • Jack Full Bush says:
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            @Grey: hey buddy, if would get out of your faux cafe and have some real life experience then maybe you might be able to produce something you can sell……can I get a half cap sugar free soy latte with whip cream

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              It’s really hard to juggle making lattes, answering fantasy questions and writing!

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Grey: I said a half cap you fool.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’d happily make you another one. That drink is two shots of classic, it’s not yours, sir.

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: hey is there an “actor” back there who can do this job?

              • Hats for Bats says:
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                @Grey: I work at a Starbucks. Let me just tell you how damn hard it is to have a good fantasy baseball discussion when you have a line of 8 drinks. I start saying crazy things like, “Yeah I think Brian Roberts might do something this year”

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  HA! Be really something if Brian Roberts was waiting for one of those lattes…

  14. Wilsonian says:
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    No thanks to you, and my own little man-crush, I really want Goldy on my team this year. I can possibly swap Tulo and a pick for Goldy and a better pick, pre-draft. Like my 7th round for his 5th round. This would be for two years of rosterability. Do I stick with Tulo-git 2 Quit or go for the Gold?

    Other keepers are Prince, Longo, JUp, A.Jones.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wilsonian: Hold Tulo, you have a 1st baseman

      • Wilsonian says:
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        @Grey: we have two UTIL slots, though, does that change your mind at all?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nah, hold Tulo…

          • Wilsonian says:
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            @Grey: I shall abide by your word, Mr. Grey, sir.

  15. JJ says:
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    Awesome Grey! In a strange way I’m sort of upset when you post stuff like this. I don’t want any of my league mates seeing it. I want them to draft Weaver in the 4th/5th rd. Anyway, need your thoughts on my first draft of the year. I appreciate it!
    c- AJ Pier; 1b- Goldschmidt; 2b- Kinsler; ss- Asdrubal; 3b- Miggy; mi-Cozart; ci- Ike D; of- Ad Jones, Holliday, Beltran, Hart, L. Cain; util- Laroche; sp- MadBum, Scherzer, Niese, Sadarmijza, Burnett, Iwakuma; rp- Romo, Betancourt, Grilli, Kenley, Cook. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JJ: Tell your friends the internet gives skin cancer so they don’t go on it… I don’t know how many teams in this league…

      • JJ says:
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        @Grey: sorry i’m a dunce. 12 team obp league, i was picking 4th.

        • PujolsJunkie says:
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          @JJ:

          If you got Cabrera drafting 4th, there are three guys that qualify as bigger dunces than you.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Team looks solid, I like your hitting a bit more than your pitching, pitching isn’t bad, but your last couple of starters are pretty bleh…

  16. coco krispie says:
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    Grey, when do you take a catcher in a 2 catcher 15 team league 5×5? I usually punt in the standard setup but don’t want to be stuck with david ross as I’ve never played in a 2 c league. wilin or sal perez in the 6th/7th too early?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @coco krispie: Usually take one around 10th round and another at the end of the draft…

  17. Jay29 says:
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    I’m not a Weaver apologist, and I can almost guarantee I won’t end up with Weaver this year because I still trust him less than most owners, but I will say a couple things in his defense:

    -His ERA has beaten his xFIP in 6 out of 7 MLB seasons.

    -His FIP (based off actual HR/FB) is consistently 0.30 to 0.60 less than his xFIP (based on league average HR/FB). Thanks in part to his home park, he is always right around 1 HR/9. Obviously, that could easily shoot up near ~1.2 with some bad luck, but I don’t think it’ll suddenly make him a 3.80 ERA guy, so I kinda throw out xFIP for some pitchers. I like FanGraphs’ SIERA the best as an ERA predictor (but some starters, like Weaver, or Matt Cain, still consistently beat or fall behind their SIERA enough to make me think there’s more to it).

    -His WHIP the last three years: 1.07, 1.01, 1.02. Even if he regresses to 1.10, he’s extremely helpful there, and can make up that K-value.

    -His career BABIP is .271 thanks to being a FB pitcher, so while his .241 last year seems low, we shouldn’t expect it to bounce up to ~.300. Hence, his WHIP should still be solid.

    Plus a kinda-bad sign that you didn’t already point out:

    -His SwStrk% last year dropped to 8.5% — it was 11.2% in 2010 and 9.1% in 2011 (career 9.4%). That, coupled with the velocity loss, is troubling, but then again, his career high for a year is 90.4 mph, so it’s not like he doesn’t know how to pitch in that range. He’s not a guy that went from 95 to 88, so it’s not a scary velocity drop to me at this point.

    • @Jay29: Good comment! I agree with you that Weaver has shown that he can beat his FIP – just like someone like Vazquez (and Greinke) seems(ed) to always underperform vs. FIP.

      But agree with Grey’s general premise that Weaver is overvalued based on ADP. No way he’ll end up on any of my teams – especially w/ that K rate and FB velocity.

      • Jay29 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Oh yeah, I like him around $16-17 in my auction, and I’m willing to bet at least somebody in my league puts him in the low $20s.

        Slightly off-topic, not sure if this is something you look at, but I always make sure to look at K/GS as well as K/9. It’s a subtle difference, but it’s really what you’re after in fantasy SPs — a guy who goes 7 IP, 6 Ks regularly is more valuable in Ks than the guy who goes 5 IP, 5 Ks regularly. The K/9 is better for the latter guy, but you’re shooting for total Ks, after all. I think people get excited about some SPs with high K-rates but ignore the fact that they can’t go deep into games (Bauer, Liriano, Volquez come to mind).

        • Another good point. For the $ values, I take K/9 from Steamer/CAIRO and then base my IP projections based on last year’s IP per GS (making a minor modification for someone like Strasberg who was babied). SPs are generally on a 100 pitch limit and it’s tough to change one’s IP/GS unless you have major changes to your control, pitching approach (e.g., pitch to contact), or, perhaps, missing more bats (less foul balls).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jay29: Agree with Rudy… Good comment, he’s still overrated…

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Jay29: kudos

  18. GTS says:
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    Hey fellas. I proposed a trade to give my Allen Craig ($8) for his Matt Moore ($4). I could use a pitcher plus I will probably not keep Craig anyway. In favor of this trade? Would you keep a $4 Moore over a $16 Jordan Zim?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @GTS: Sounds decent, I’d go Moore…

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @GTS: Moore for 1/4 the price over Zimmermann? Absolutely.

  19. Beau says:
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    Some keeper advice questions. 10 team ESPN 5×5 auction league. Can sign any 2 of Myers, Profar, Bundy, Taveras, Middlebrooks for $1 in ’13 and $6 in ’14. Option of Butler at $11. Already keeping Trout, Harper, Ellsbury, Jesus Montero, and Matt Moore. Considering dropping Dom Brown at $6 in ’13 and $16 in ’14 (I would be penalized half his salary) to keep someone else. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Beau: Myers and Bundy for $6…

      • Beau says:
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        @Grey: Is your reason not to go with Taveras a positional thing? You seemed much higher on him than Bundy in your previous articles. Thoughts on cutting Dom Brown?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, positional and this is for this year and next…

  20. stumanji says:
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    I was offered $3 Profar for my $2 Headley in my 5 keeper H2H league. No minor league slots so you’d have to be pretty sure about a guy to keep him before he even has a full time job. Right now I’m planning to keep Headley, $3 Rizzo, $3 Medlen, $4 Aaron Hill, and $18 BJ Upton probably. Obviously Headley established himself last year and is great value, but is Profar special enough to give him up? Can keep forever at 120% of previous year’s draft price, so either of these guys would potentially to be on my team for a long time.

    Another consideration is that Miggy Cabrera, Longo, Panda, Aramis, possibly other top 3B will not be kept, so I could always pay for 3B production via the draft this year, so I would not necessarily be downgrading from Headley to like Pedro Feliz or something.

  21. Micah Stupak says:
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    Hi all, anyone have any thoughts on Bruce willing to play center? I’m not planning on keeping him at $39, but I’m trying to figure out how much his value jumps as a CF (if he keeps up similar production). That is almost worth it as a CF. My league is 16 team, LF/CF/RF/OF, and OBP/SLG swapped for AVG/HR.

      • Micah Stupak says:
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        @Grey: I was thinking his durability might make up for it but I think I’m just trying to convince myself there. You’re right. Better to let him go back to auction and try and get him again for less if I want.

        Also, anyone: thoughts on LF or CF being more shallow this year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Don’t really have any thoughts on it, but LF feels more shallow, whether that is true I haven’t researched…

          • Micah Stupak says:
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            @Grey: I was thinking the same thing, so I must be on to something. Thanks.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem…

    • Micah Stupak says:
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      PS: $260 budget.

      • PujolsJunkie says:
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        @Micah Stupak: That seems like a good $10 over his value to me, even with CF inflation figured into the mix. I’d probably spend no more than $20 on him in H2H and $25-$27 in roto.

  22. Mowses says:
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    Is there going to be a Rankings “Tiers” post like in previous years? That spreadsheet thing?

  23. your best friend says:
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    I got 6th overall pick of my new keeper league.

    coming up on my turn!

    dread pirate or stanton?

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @your best friend: I’d take the all around game of McCutch. He’ll trump Stanton everywhere but in HR. Just get a slugger at both corner spots and you’re golden.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Stanton

  24. Steve Jeltz says:
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    @grey,
    I have to pick 6. H2H, points, no penalty, can keep forever. Pitchers seem to outs core hitters slightly due to scoring.

    Hosmer
    Hill
    Lawrie
    Machado
    Bruce
    Cargo
    Kemp
    Harper
    Verlander
    Jordan Zimmerman
    Medlen

    Thanks for you input!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Verlander, Harper, Kemp, CarGo, Bruce, Zimmermann…

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @Steve Jeltz:

      Verlander, Harper, Kemp, CarGo, Zimmermann, Medlen

  25. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Is there any arm ownable from the Angels this year, you don’t like Weaver, Wilson, Hansen, Vargas and no one likes blanton. But they have great offensive potential and can win a lot of games. who is the king of the dips&$t?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arte Moreno

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Grey: cynical snobby LA’er

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It is me, sigh….

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey: me too, we know our own. And in reference to what Rudy says, I don’t like driving down to the Big A either. Orange County makes me uncomfortable

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              The Orange Curtain, no thank you…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Grey: It does have that Nazi-Soviet rule with an Iron Fist thing going on. Speaking of Iron Fists, I found that Pornosonic album on Amazon….only available on CD or via MP3. I’m getting a copy and going to make some ringtones of great bass lines

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I have the best ringtone of all time on my phone…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: what’s that?

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: HA! that’s awesome and rad… I could see a lot of Chet quotes from Weird Science being good to….. My buddy use to have Sheriff Bart(Cleavon Little) from Blazing Saddles saying “where all the white women at” as his

                    • Steve says:
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                      @Jack Full of Hate: Now there is a name from the past. I don’t actually think I’ve ever seen Blazing Saddles, but I do remember him from Tempratures Rising

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      You’ve NEVER seen Blazing Saddles? Oh, Steve….

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Jack Full of Hate: damn steve, how old are you?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Hehe… That’s a solid one too… Anything from Blazing Saddles would be, actually…

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Jack Full of Hate: old enough to make bad decisions ;)

    • Grey hates Angel pitchers and loves Dodger pitchers because he hates the thought of driving to Anaheim for a baseball game.

      Weaver is the best option in a vacuum but not sure which of those will come at the best value. I imagine both Grey and my rankings are below the ADPs. I still irrationally hope that Hanson lives up to his potential – last year really took some of the bloom off that flower…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: I might take a flyer on Hanson or even Vargas if the price is right. They fall into my “probably won’t be on my team come June 1st anyway so why not take a chance on them in the later rounds” players.

        • Yeah, at least Hanson showed solid K-rates last year. Looks like he’s been done in the last two years with escalating HR rates. Maybe Trout and Bourjos can steal some of ‘em back…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: facing Houston, Oakland and Seattle frequently doesn’t hurt either.

      • Carnac says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: He does hate that drive, doesn’t he. Grey may suffer from what we in the soft-sciences call “The O.C. Disorder.”

        • Jack Full of Hate says:
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          @Carnac: I thought that was for people who thought the TV show the OC was just like real life

  26. ADP says:
    (link)

    There are several reasons to like Weaver. He is a workhorse who pitches in a pitcher’s park for an improved hitting team. He also gets to face the light-hitting AL West Astros several times. He’s proven his ability to win games given his 18-20 wins the last two years. Guys ranked ahead of him like Moore and Latos and Zimmerman have never won nearly that many games. So while I agree that Wins are somewhat arbitrary, I wouldn’t want to beat on Weaver that much. I love when the scouts have to face the sabermetricians in the boxing ring. Scouts vs. Sabers Round 1. I’ll side with with the Sabers on this one as I’d rather buy skills than team/ballpark, but it’s hard not to take Weaver if he can be had at a discount.

    • PujolsJunkie says:
      (link)

      @ADP: Well I think the point being made is that there is no discount. The opposite seems to be true where he’s expected to be drafted. Bottom line though, the guy beats his underlying peripherals pretty much every year. A lack of velocity can be reversed with a different offseason workout. Weaver bringing his fastball back up to 90 wouldn’t be unheard of. Things seem to trend downward, but the guy still knows how to pitch, even if his fastball isn’t as good as it was when he first burst onto the scene. Sure, the bottom could fall out on him, but he’s made it hard to bet against him in the past, and could keep that up for another year or more.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds like you’re going both ways with this comment… Everyone has a fair price, Weaver’s is not fair this year noting his peripherals…

  27. Here’s a talking point….

    WHO DO THE YANKS GET TO COVER FOR GRANDERSON???

    Let me just say… The Yanks are in trouble… Jeter, A Rod, Etc…OLD AGE SUCKS!!!! issues (take it from one who knows) .. UGLY!!!… A sub 500 team for the first time in recent memory is a looming possibility…

    That said, I doubt that hope has died in the Bronx and there are NYC expectations to be upheld…

    My list of 3 Yankee target OFers

    Chris Young of the Oakland A’s… It will take 3 quality cream filled doughnuts/cannolis (Sanchez, Williams and Austin would do it – besides the rest of the Yanks MiLB org is in or on the way to the hospital) … I think, the A’s can afford to make the move too – Young’s salary is massive with his buy-out tacked on for a 4th OFer abut 9.5 MIl for 2013 … They would hardly miss him – (We will talk about the “whys” of that statement if this deal is made) Don’t think even the Yanks would this… But, he is the best 4th OFer out there… And on a team that could afford to let him leave with Smith there… And Choice is knocking on the door too… And Young is a good future player for the aging Yanks where $$$$ are not an issue

    Stubbs … Could be had for a little less – maybe???… Cleveland is a mess.. Swisher could play outthere.. And they need to give their young guys some leash… He is perhaps the most available… 3rd/4th OFer in MLB..

    Tabata.. A Homecoming Queen??? One time OF prospect… It just makes sense… Teams never forget… Been a Yankee hallmark MO for all my life… Ship’m out young and bring’m back when they are ready – Only prob is Tabata ready???… Would the Pirates do it ???? Cheapest temporary option for Yanks too… No power in that body??? What happened to him??? Here is a young man that screams out for PEDs…

    Off Topic… Do PEDS help with aging issues??? Miyagi was always tell’n me to get some for us…

    Thoughts????

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I don’t think Stubbs or Young go there… I think Soriano has a legit shot of maybe going back home… It would keep with the Yanks tradition of looking about three months into the future… Tabata’s a possibility, Pirates would probably do that for a MR from the Yankees or washed up prospect…

    • Tony says:
      (link)

      @T Moore: “Stubbs … Could be had for a little less – maybe???… Cleveland is a mess.. Swisher could play outthere.. And they need to give their young guys some leash… He is perhaps the most available… 3rd/4th OFer in MLB..”

      cleveland is a mess, im a tribe fan, not taking offense but I’m wondering your meaning behind that? now if you said NYY are a mess, i agree, Cleveland on the other hands done some very nice things this offseason….. some will look at it and say, Bauer, Bourne, swisher, BLEH….. but its cleveland, if the tribe can even get a decent player to come to town, they then see it and run for the hills to the next city where its warmer, nicer, pay is more, women are better looking, etc…. clevelands always been able to take what alot of other teams look at as subpar players and get the best out of them, or take some cagey vets and mix them in with the youth…. Clevelands never landing a Pujols, Reyes, Fielder etc, so what they did this offseason, I’m HAPPY. Now the pitching has lots of question marks and with guys like stubbs and reynolds we might see multiple players with over 200 K’s on the team, but at least they’re doing things……. I digress.

      • @Tony:

        Tony: Let me make this clear… I always root for the Tribe if they are not playing the A’s… What’s r_O_und on the ends and h_I_gh in the middle???

        The Tribe are much like the A’s … They have to pick their shots… Right now, they are between one of those is all.. Esp. this year IMO

        The A’s have a mini shot now… MINI being the operative word…

        Cleveland’s time will come…

        Sorry, if I offended

        GO TRIBE…

  28. Eric W says:
    (link)

    How worried are you about phil hughes back? Trying to decided between him Becket and shelby miller for my 6th starter.

    Thanks for the help

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not that concerned as of right now… I like him enough to take the 6th SP flyer…

  29. PujolsJunkie says:
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    Sanchez, Williams and Austin for Chris Young? Is this a joke? The Yankees wouldn’t give any of those guys up alone for Young. Nor should they. Ever.

  30. mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey or Rudy or both lol if you can pick one hitter and one pitcher that you feel is going to break out who would that be?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Moore, Frazier…

  31. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    masterson to start opening day for the tribe. what an exciting time to be a cleveland fan!

  32. Turk Wendell says:
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    What’s up Grey!

    Ahh. So nice to be back in the warm embrace of Razzball again.

    Keeper question: Gotta keep 2
    12 team mixed- 5×5 plus OPS and QS

    Altuve (lose 16th round pick)
    Rizzo (23rd)
    MadBum (3rd)
    Nat Gio (5th)
    Frazier (23rd)

    Wanna keep Nat Gio and Altuve. Or Rizzo. Or Altuve. Or….

    What do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ve missed your loving arms. Rizzo, Altuve

  33. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Frazier and Rizzo if its Yahoo

  34. Jon says:
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    Yahoo 12-team H2H. What do you think of giving my Harper and Moore for his McCutchen and Greg Holland? I would add Tillman to my rotation to take Moore’s spot.

    My other SPs are Hamels, Shark, Peavy, Burnett, Harvey, Ryu, Anderson and my other starting OFs are Stanton, Holliday.

    • Jon says:
      (link)

      @Jon: I guess my question is: is Cutch enough of an upgrade over Harper to give up Moore?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        No, he really isn’t…

    • Tony says:
      (link)

      @Jon: if cutch does what he did last yr and harper really doesnt do much more than last yr I’d do this, but Harper is the unknown here, he might go mike trout this year, doubtful on the .330 average but MONSTER #’s…..

      I’d probably take cutch…. being its 12 teams, H2H, it sounds like a akeeper? i’d go with cutch, Holland is going to be a nice closer this year.

      • Jon says:
        (link)

        @Tony: it’s not a keeper, actually. So that probably moves the needle a little more towards Cutch, just considering Harper and Moore’s best year’s might be ahead of them and McCutchen is in his prime.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds fine…

  35. LagunaBobbyI says:
    (link)

    @Grey…have a keeper question and would love to get your opinion. 12 team, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 4 OF, 2 UTIL/extra hitter, 7 P, 5 bench, Y! keeper league that started last year. contracts are basic, each team gets to hand out 20 contract years to the players on your roster come keeper deadline (3/15), no max amount of years, no min or max amount of players have to be kept. how would you divvy up the years with the following roster (listing only players of relevance, in no particular order):
    Giancarlo (HEART!!)
    Pujols
    Ad Jones
    BJ Upton
    Lawrie
    Granderson
    Rollins
    Sal Perez
    Greinke
    Medlen
    Gallardo

    Am looking to deal Lawrie and Granderson/Rollins or Greinke/Medlen type for upgrade somewhere, but sadly I’m assuming I won’t get a deal done. Thanks for the input.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not sure I understand the point of this trade… You want someone like Miggy for Lawrie and Greinke? Might work, gotta try it… Seems doubtful….

      • LagunaBobbyI says:
        (link)

        very doutbful, i would be targeting someone closer to longoria/beltre than miggy. the trade talk was just heresay really, i am much more concerned with how your brain would divvy up the contract years given my roster. assuming i dont get a deal done, of course. thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Giancarlo – 6
      Pujols – 2
      Jones – 2
      Upton – 1
      Lawrie – 2
      Grandy – 1
      Rollins – 1
      Perez – 1
      Greinke – 2
      Medlen – 1
      Gallardo – 1

      • LagunaBobbyI says:
        (link)

        thanks grey. im on same page, no doubt 6 with stanton. i was pretty vague with my inital question, so not sure if you caught that i dont have to keep all the players i listed (i can keep any number of them), those are just those of interest on my roster. if that was not taken into consideration in your answer, would you switch anything around? right now my thoughs are: giancarlo (6-7 yrs), ad jones (3), pujols (2-3), lawrie (0-4 – hes a tough one, hence why i want to unload the headache), upton (1-2), greinke (2), medlen (1-2), rollins, grandy and gallardo all (0-1). thanks grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, your first question was crazy confusing… Go with Lawrie for 3, Medlen for 2 and Grandy and Rollins for zero and the others keep as I have them….

          • LagunaBobbyI says:
            (link)

            appreciate the feedback. sorry for making your head spin a bit

  36. Alex says:
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    Grey,

    Keeper question. Better value: Bruce for $23 or Brandon Phillips for $24.

    Thanks

    • Dirty Jersey says:
      (link)

      @Alex:

      Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuce…. Projections: 95/35/105/.259/7
      BP… 82/18/75/.275/15

      Numbers say Bruuuuuce is the Boss
      Bruuuuuuce still has upside…. BP is an oil slick (intended) away from sliding way down to irrelevancy… and he is ridiculously boring to own…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bruce

  37. Dirty Jersey says:
    (link)

    Grey…

    Where podcast? No see podcast….

    I miss podcast… =(

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Starts again next Tuesday…

  38. Steve says:
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    Got going on The Cold Six Thousand yet?

    Just finished Homicide. The ‘Snot Boogie’ story pops up towards the end :-)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Assuming that’s the next book in the series… Not even close to starting it… I’m about halfway through Tabloid… Snot Boogie — nice!

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: Oh – a previous comment you made suggested you’d finished Tabloid. No matter – continue to enjoy! Yeah, that’s the next one in the series.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, I’m still loving it… I wish Cougar wouldn’t complain so much about me reading my iPad in bed…

          • Steve says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Ha! Book 1 iPad 0. Not supposed to be good for you to look at an iPad right before going to sleep apparently. I still do it though…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Eh, it’s not good to do a lot of things… I’m sure it’s better to read in some form then take a pill to sleep… Book is zero as well, you need the light on to read it… The light is what bothers her… I’m so outta here!

              • Steve says:
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                @Grey: Oh – agree on the reading thing. My wife has started wearing one of those blindfolds you get on planes when I’m reading late, though that could be because she can’t stand the sight of me.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Ha… Cougar wears one of those too…. And she asks me to shut off the cable box, like the light of the channel numbers can be seen through a blindfold when someone has their eyes shut…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: when i read on my tablet in bed with baby’s mama I make the screen black and the text white and presto, you can read in the dark and it doesnt hurt the eyes

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Oh, wow, nice tip… Will try it… Thanks!

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: I always read with the black background and white letters, it also makes glare be less of an impact.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, gotta try that, shizz was giving me a headache the last few nights I was reading…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Baby’s Mama figured it out on my old Nook color a few years back. if its a newer I pad then it should work. I only have a Nook HD+.

                    For any other useful tips and hints please post in the comments care of: Jack Full of Useful Info

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha! I watched the newest episode of Worst Cooks finally… That show kills me (in the good way), but they are such actors and not real home cooks…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: I don’t know grey, baby’s mama is from Long Beach, and not the good part, and Carla seems legit. What was wrong with Dr. Bob? Guy looked like he was stuck between gears

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Dr. Bob looked like he had a homeopathic medicine go wrong…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: I’m going to guess experimenting with jimson weed

  39. vinnie says:
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    Grey

    I know your really high on Upton. But, putting him aside who would you rather draft with the wrap around pick; Heyward or Stanton? I know the obvious choice, but I think Stantons barely going to get strikes with out weak that lineup

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Stanton

  40. Steve says:
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    @Jack Full of Hate – I’m a month younger than Tim Wakefield…

    @Grey – a gap in my resume, no doubt.

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Steve: At first I thought that meant you were 60 but i looked it up and you’re just 46. I honestly that Wakefield was a lot older than that.

      Please go see Blazing Saddles. I have a pre-requisite for friends and you have not fulfilled it

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Will read the rest later, but skimmed and read how players were still making bank, so why not take the drugs, which I understand… Money talks, BS…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: Understand it too, but don’t really like it. Easy for me to say I guess. Same with Greinke’s comments about pitching for whoever pays hm the most.

        Maybe I’d be the same, but with the amount of money these guys get, wouldn’t you take a little less to have a shot at pitching for a winner? Which the Dodgers might very well be, but I’m thinking of a case where the Mariners or Astros offer him $50mill/year…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          In the same ballpark (not entirely literally, mostly about football), the 30 for 30 I watched recently was about going broke as a pro athlete, was interesting in parts, not worth watching the whole thing… Basically, most of them are done earning for their lifetime by the time they are 27, and they spend all the money on hookers and blow (I’m paraphrasing)…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey: so they are just like every other 27 year old with a nice bank roll

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Ha, pretty much…

  41. Cole says:
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    I signed up to commish a league today and the default greeting that is on the main league page is Verlander, Trout, and Posey. Three dudes I have no plan on owning.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      They are whispering in your ear to draft them…

      • Cole says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I liked trout, but honestly, the weight gain has turned me off. Way different than Miggy, he’s voluptuous and he owns it. I like that.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Miggy is a sexy beast, agreed…

  42. Erich Traum says:
    (link)

    Good evening everyone,
    I have to pick my 4 keepers by friday in my 10 team roto. (6×6 with OPS and H). Its an auction. We have a $105 salary cap.
    Our starting roster consists of: (2)C’s, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, (3) OF’s and U. THen 8 P’s

    Pick 4 of : McCutchen $5/Verlander $5/Butler $3/Bruce $9.50/Kimbrel $6/Bumgarner $6/Altuve $1

    Thanks in advance.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Evening… McCutchen, Verlander, Altuve, Butler…

  43. Jeff P says:
    (link)

    12 team keeper, league in its 2nd year. I have horrendous keepers, and don’t think I’m competitive this year. So I’m drafting for next year.
    In a 27 round draft (13 of, 9 sp, 5 Bn)
    Where do you target guys like Oscar Taveras, Dylan Bundy and Zach Wheeler?
    Anybody else? (Profar, Myers and Machado are already kept from last year).
    Last year Trout went in 15th, Harper in 16th, even though they were both ticketed for the minors at that point.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You should always play for this year… So many things can happen… You’re gonna be playing for 2015 come this time next year if you think you’re playing for next year… I’d say target those guys around the 15th again this year…

  44. GTS says:
    (link)

    I got offered Justin Upton at $23 for my Brett Lawrie at $4. I have Longoria at 3B so I don’t need to keep Lawrie. Luckily I also got Stanton and Jennings as my OF in a 10 team H2H auction league. Would you deal Lawrie to get Upton? $19 less bucks to spend at auction but I’m kinda over Lawrie.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Upton…

  45. Hats for Bats says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey. I am curious as to why you show so much love for Zimmerman, to the point you seem to pick him over Medlen. Medlen showed ACE stuff last year and pinpoint command. What has Jordan Zimmerman done to earn a top 20 ranking? While I know you love the short answer, I’m curious what the long-winded one is.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      The long-winded one is in the top 20 and top 40 for starters…

  46. Rob says:
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    Weaver has a lot of deception in his delivery, bruh. Could be the difference. Love your stuff by the way.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! We’ll see on Weaver…

Comments are closed.