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Jason Kipnis?  More like bacon with Kaddish!  Am I right, twelve-hundred and eleven Jew readers?  What?  Google tracks this shizz, don’t look at me.  For all of y’all that be up in my grill day in and day out about Jean Segura’s crizzappy 2nd half, let’s go off topic to bring it back to topic, shall we?  Thanks, expository question!  Segura had a ridunkiculous 2nd half, if you’re dunking turds in a bucket.  Tis true, homies and four homettes.  I agree.  He’s also 23 years old and was in his first major league season.  Never before had he played that much, so he was probably tired.  Well, he did play a lot the year he played winter ball in the 8th grade because his dad told him, “You either play ball for 12 months or work at my pizza place, Papa Jean’s.  Oh, and if anyone asks you about the lawsuit, Papa John’s and Papa Jean’s are not the same thing.”  Segura was also hurt at the end of last year.  But no excuses, he wasn’t good in the 2nd half with one homer and 17 steals.  So, Kipnis, who the world and thy Lord in Fantasy Heaven, likes, did what exactly last year in the 2nd half?  4 homers and 9 steals.  YAY!!!  Seriously, I’m going to jump off the Bridge Of Who Cares after reading those numbers.  Kipnis is also 26 years old and did the exact same tail off the previous year in the 2nd half, so this is a pattern you don’t need to be a knit maker to spot.  So why is Jason Kipnis overrated for 2014 fantasy baseball?

Well, I kinda just told you, but let’s also talk…*cue dramatic prairie dog* Position Scarcity.  Position scarcity is a buzzword(s) that fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) like to throw around.  It’s the same as someone using ten-dollar words in conversation that they don’t really understand.  “I’m drafting Tulo because of position scarcity!”  That’s you after listening to an ESPN analcyst.  At 2nd base, there’s Cano, and everyone else.  Maybe what everyone means by position scarcity is that there’s scarcely anything good at that position.  It seems like everyone understands to punt catcher, but middle infielders get people all greedy like Scrooge McDuck.  Let’s assume Kipnis gives you my projected stats:  90/19/92/.269/27.  Solid stats, for sure.  I’m even generous if you were to look at Steamer hitting projections:  87/17/77/.260/24.  But to draft Kipnis, you need to skip, say, Joey Votto, so you missed out on 89/26/102/.309/7.  Then you grab, Matt Adams later for 69/25/76/.259/1.  So you got Kipnis and Adams with 159/44/168/.264/28.  Now if you got Joey Votto and Gyorko (who is 40 picks after Adams at ESPN!), you would’ve had 157/53/176/.285/9.  That’s essentially the same thing.  More power and average with Gyorko/Votto, more steals with Kipnis.  Due to SAGNOF, I’d go as far to say Votto and Gyorko is actually better on a strictly stats basis, but I’m not even as concerned about that.  Who would you feel more confident about owning on your team?  Votto and Gyorko or Kipnis and Matt Adams?  Is this even close?  Wanna go even further?  About a hundred and fifty picks after Gyorko on ESPN, you can draft Brad Miller and get a combined 158/40/164/.291/20 with Votto.  That’s the same as Kipnis and Adams!  Can you go one hundred and fifty picks after Votto and get a first baseman that is similar?  I’m just asking, a friend wants to know.  Okay, I guess you can, if you trust Mark Teixeira or Justin Smoak.  So, when someone says position scarcity, say, “I never heard of it, is it Near Capacity?”

From Around The Web

  1. phin says:
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    no sane person is passing on votto to pick kipnis. votto goes at the beginning of the 2nd in every draft. I’ve been scooping kipnis in the 3rd or 4th round and loving my offense. for 1b I can land fielder in the 2nd, pujos in the 4th, big papi in the 5th, gonzalez in the 7th, Rizzo in the 10th, or belt in the 12-14 range (he’s been falling for some reason).

    after kipnis & pedroia there’s not much value to be had in most drafts until hill/Phillips/prado/Utley/gyorko in the 10-12 rounds. if I can lock in those projections for kipnis at 2b in the 3rd or even 4th round I will likely roll the dice.

    at that point in the draft I like kipnis’ floor at a weak position. throw in the fact that he’s entering his power prime years and there’s some upside there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @phin: For some reason, your comment was in our spam folder… Not sure why…

      • Peter says:
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        @Grey: Spam at the Kipnis Deli? An outrage!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha!

  2. Count de Monetball says:
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    In the midnight hour, grey called, schmo, schmo, schmo!
    With a rebel yell, he called schmo, schmo, schmo!
    schmo, schmo, schmo!

      • Jayrod Ceol says:
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        @Grey:

        Kipnis 2nd half dud. If I own him, I’m banking on a hot start and dishing him at his peak. And thats only because I’m from Cleveland and my friends are all homers for their Indians. Good call Grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Thanks!

          • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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            @Grey: how exactly would you own him in a league like that? he’ll go esp early.

  3. Czernobog says:
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    I reckon Freeman’s the sort of 1B you’ll miss out on for Kipnis, end of round 2-middle of round 3 sort of pick, would be surprised to see Votto last beyond middle of round 2, would be really surprised to see someone take Kipnis over Votto.

    Freeman & Gyorko: 153/52/176/274/4

    Kipnis & Corey Hart (6 rounds after Gyorko at yahoo): 162/42/176/274/30

    Take Kipnis and lose 10 HR, but gain a handful of runs & 26 steals. Give me the choice early in rd 3, and I’ll take Kipnis over Freeman because of that position scarcity. I’d rather end up with Corey Hart or Brandon Moss than Howie Kendrick or Martin Prado.

    • kingforaday151 says:
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      @Czernobog: Haha, so did you miss the part about ‘position scarcity’ being overblown? To each his own, but personally I take the player I feel is the best available player at that time, regardless of position. It’s a long season, an injury/suspension throws ‘position scarcity’ out the window. Draft the best player, not the best ‘x’ position just because there’s empty roster spot 6 rounds in to the draft. If you’re worried about so called ‘scarcity’ then grab two late flyers, study up, use the hitter-tron tool, and play the matchups. You’ll do just fine…

      • Czernobog says:
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        @kingforaday151: Didn’t miss that part, just don’t agree with it all that much. Given the choice between what I see as similar value players, I’ll likely take the one from the shallower position. If I get 5% less stats by taking the scarcer position early, but expect 15% more stats out of the later round player I’ll need to match with them, then I’m coming out in front.

        But depends a lot on what I’ve got my eye on for the late rounds. Last year I planned for Carpenter in most leagues, so I wasn’t interested in Kipnis, Pedroia, Cano, etc, I didn’t see the position as scarce because I could get quality late. This year, not so much, so I’d definitely take Kipnis over Freeman.

      • TheNewLeaf says:
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        @kingforaday151: but when deciding between Freeman & Kipnis (I agree a more fair comparison and draft day decision than Kipnis & Votto) you can make a case that Kipnis wins that:

        Freeman 85-25-102-.288-2
        Kipnis 90-19-92-.269-27

        Freeman gives you 5 more RBI + HR, 6 more homeruns, but 25 fewer stolen bases. I’d prefer Kipnis’ projected statline at any position. I think position scarcity can be overblown, but it does matter if the numbers are close. Although SNAGOF is a viable strategy, steals were down heavily last year and you can find 25 homerun power just the same. Considering 2nd base is bad this year, it’s not easy to find speed at that position, and I think Kipnis sets you up nice for the rest of the draft.

        It’s not as simple as saying “these two players at these respective draft slots out produce these”…because every other pick is determined with the previous players strengths in mind. You’re not drafting exactly the same except for a 10th round pick later on. So, if I started say 1) Cabrera, 2) Freeman..I’m likely to target speed next with a pick of segura possibly. However, if I go 1) Trout, 2) Kipnis…I’m likely zoning in on more power with my next pick, maybe Stanton

        Cabrera/Freeman/Segura 71-44 (too lazy to count RBI/runs)
        Trout/Kipnis/Stanton 85-76

        If you want to say that the 2nd pick doesn’t influence the first, then say it’s always Cabrera at 1…so it’s either something like:

        1) Cabrera, 2) kipnis, 3), Stanton 91-33

        Or

        1) Cabrera, 2) Freeman, 3) segura 71-44

        In that case, I’d still prefer the kipnis side (not to mention you’re getting a ton more rbis on the Kipnis side, and not sacrificing anything else.

        You can do this all day, but Kipnis if he hits projections is a 5 category contributor at a scarce position. It’s not the same as punting catcher because the raw stats between the top catchers and the players taken at their adp is very different. Here kipnis’ raw stats stack up quite well.

        Now, if you want to make a case that Kipnis flops, that’s a different story.

    • UncleLarryWalker says:
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      @Czernobog: Here’s to you, hoping Corey Hart can do what no man since Edgar Martinez has done in Seattle: hit for power.

      Not happening.

      • Dead Head says:
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        @UncleLarryWalker: Except 40 year old Raul Ibanez!!

  4. Piranhaman says:
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    I get Darvish and Bourn
    He gets Jordan Zimmermann and Matt Adams.

    I’m considering to send this offer, i have power bats enough but speedster.

    So, does it look fair or acceptable? Who wins?

    PS. I’m worrying about Bourn’s hamstring injury…

    • Piranhaman says:
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      @Piranhaman: oh, his other options for speed are Marte and Gardner.

      Marte seems to be expensive and i don’t believe Gardner.

      Is Bourn a decent target for 30+ SB?

      • kingforaday151 says:
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        @Piranhaman: You’re going to get Darvish for J-Zimm and Adams? Seems like you have a slim chance to make that happen. The other party would be foolish to give up a top 3 strikeout option in the league for J-Zimm and a replaceable 1B, but if you could take him in to it you should take the deal.

        • Piranhaman says:
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          @kingforaday151: how about Bumgarner + Bourn (or Gradner) for Zimmermann + Adams? More realistic? But do i have any benefit from that? (Excepting Bumgarner’s better K/9)

            • Piranhaman says:
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              @Grey: thank you, Grey :)

          • kingforaday151 says:
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            @Piranhaman: I guess I just feel Zimmermann’s lack of K’s makes him a bit more mediocre in a pool of great pitching. And maybe I’m just not too high on him, but I personally wouldn’t trade for Adams. IMO, he’s a Morneau @ Coors type, and I think there are too many waiver replacements to go crazy for Adams. Bum’s been awfully consistant and I believe he’s 24, so I still feel your asking price is a bit too high. With Gardner’s contract extension happening and him being assured of a spot in that lineup I’d probably rather have him over Bourn.

            • kingforaday151 says:
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              @kingforaday151: I’d certainly do either trade if the other party would somehow agree, but it sounds like you’d be the one making the offer and have not yet done so.

              • Piranhaman says:
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                @kingforaday151: thank you, bro. I’m glad to listen your realistic opinion :)

    • Hawk says:
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      @Piranhaman:

      I like Zimmerman but in a vaccuum, I’d take the Darvish side

      • Piranhaman says:
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        @Hawk: i also like Zimms, especially, his consistency. Thanks for comment :)

  5. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    In shallow mixed leagues, I’ve usually found that positional scarcity is overrated. Production is production regardless of where it comes from, and it can be found even at the scarce positions more often than not throughout the season in these formats. Statistical scarcity is a different story. With offensive numbers in decline over the past few seasons, the 30/100 power hitters and five category producers are becoming increasingly rare. Kipnis falls into the latter category.

    Over the past two seasons, five players have averaged 15 or more home runs and 30 or more steals per year: Mike Trout, Carlos Gomez, Alex Rios, Coco Crisp, and Kipnis. When filtered further to display just the five category assets, three players have averaged a 80/15/80/30/.270 line over the past two seasons: Trout, Rios, and Kipnis. Considering the fact that one of these players is a 33 year old who is likely entering his decline phase, an argument can be made that Trout is the only player who is more likely to achieve the above stat line than Kipnis this season. Positional eligibility aside, that’s pretty damn valuable.

    • gareth says:
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      @Big Magoo: as an Indians fan, im happy hes on my team.

    • Bream Dreams says:
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      What happens if he has terrible first half? Would you be able to count on him to “turn it around in the second?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big Magoo: I hear ya, but this feels like cherrypicking…

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Grey: Isn’t focusing on 2nd half production and discounting 1st half cherrypicking too? Just wanted to show that he’s a five category asset regardless of position to put the scarcity issue out of the equation.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I don’t think it’s cherrypicking, cause this is what he does from half to half… Guys that had 15 HRs and 30 steals are good, but what about guys that averaged 20 HRs and 20 steals and a .280 average or guys that averaged 10 homers and 40 steals or guys that averaged 35 homers and 10 steals? 15/30 is good, but it’s only one type of good…And is a player that gets 15 homers and 28 steals bad? Just feels kinda arbitrary…

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @Grey: The half splits aren’t much of an issue for me. It might be something to consider in hth leagues, but he’s fine in roto. The numbers are there at the end.

            I chose the 80/15/80/30/.270 baseline because it represents a well-rounded skill set and a player who’s not a liability in any one category. If the criteria were reduced to a 70/12/70/25/.260 two year average line, guess how many players would be added to the list? Zero. Not to mention the fact that that line would only guarantee a player who’s above average in one category (SBs).

            The .280/20/20 and 35/10 players that you referenced have their own unique values. It’s like comparing apples and oranges. Better to use specific auction values to try to compare those different types of players.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I don’t think a 20/20/.280 player is an apple to Kipnis’s orange, but that’s neither here nor there… You see the value of Kipnis for the 2nd round, I’d prefer other players…

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                @Grey: You consider players who are 5-7 homers and 10 steals apart to be similar comps, especially if they play different positions? So, say, comparing Kipnis and Choo would be the equivalent of comparing Fielder and Myers. Can’t say that I consider either of those comps as being apples to apples…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Nah, I’m not comparing the players… I’m saying their fantasy value is close… A player that goes 10/30 and a player that goes 20/20 both have similar fantasy value…

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
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                    @Grey: Fair enough. I see ADPs like Hanley in the 1st round and Puig in the 2nd as much bigger risks than Kipnis. To each his own. Good debate.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yup, definitely

  6. Yescheese says:
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    Fantasy master Grey Lothario, you schmo-hating genius, I have one more 2B alternative for the razz community to consider:

    OR you could draft Scooter G for 100 runs!! All scooter does is hit!

    OR you could draft literally the last 2B on the board, and pick up Tommy LaStella whenever Uggla falters, be that in spring training or May at the latest. But probably spring training. All LaStella does is hit!

  7. gareth says:
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    Kipnis is the second best second base option, But I totally agree with your assessment. The number 18 espn pick is too high from him. If he was outside the top 30 and was a 4th rounder I could see the appeal.

    Hes not even the best hitter on the Indians. Santana is. Whadda you know. The Indians 2 best hitters are at Catcher and second base.

    POSITION SCARCITY!!!

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @gareth: sorry, Gareth but you know what it means if a team’s 2 best hitters are at 2b and C, right? it’s not good.

  8. Oppo Taco says:
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    hey grey, im keeping goldy, cutch, j up, bautista, heyward, madbum, segura in our 12 team 7 player keeper. I have a top 5 pick in this years draft and was wondering what kind of player i should target with my first pick? Alex Cobb, Shields, Latos, Salazar, Wacha, Teheran are the pitchers available that I have my eye on, bats available are guys like Choo, Cespedes (going first overall i think because the owner wants him bad), alex gordon, ryan zimmerman, adrian gonzalez, allen craig and rizzo. Any player(s) catch your interest for my team in the first round? thanks for the input

      • Oppo Taco says:
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        @Grey: thought you might say that, i traded a second rounder for segura but im also the one throwing back zimmerman because we can only keep 7. stupid to trade away a pick and lose zim? should i keep him over any of the previously mentioned guys. thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not stupid

  9. gareth says:
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    The surprising speed is what makes people overrate him. You look at kipnis and hes a short, stocky guy (dan uggla like). Then you look at the stats and see 30 Sb’s and close to 20 home runs (14/32 in 2012, 17/30 in 2013). Last year he also hit .284 which is a pretty good average in todays offense suppressed environment.

    So you have a 26 year old possible 20/30 guy with decent average at an extremely weak position? It is appealing.

    But I had to do a double take when I saw a fantasy “expert” rank him higher than cano the other day. I know Robinson Cano is in Seattle now, and some folks may be wary of the park and the supporting players around him, but to rank kipnis above him is a little extreme.

  10. AP says:
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    General Housekeeping Question: My roto league is debating switching from Wins to Quality Starts as one of the 5 categories. I personally don’t care either way, but how does this affect drafting strategy, if at all? Thanks in advance for any help!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @AP: Speaking from experience – keeper league switched to QS a few years back – it changes a lot of things. There was only 1 20+ game winner last year (Scherzer). By contrast, there were 37 people last year with 20+ QS. It makes some guys who pitch well but don’t get many wins to show for it – James Shield tied Kershaw for the MLB lead with 27 QS last year – even more viable. In terms of drafting, I wouldn’t say it changes too much depending on how your league values pitching. Wins are always fickle anyways, its rare they influence the ranking of a player too much.

      • OneI'dWilly says:
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        @Sky: This has been my experience too. If anything I would focus on pitching skills more than where guys finished last year, as wins might inflate some players like Lester, Liriano etc. Since chasing wins is typically bad news anyway, I’d say be even more confident in your skill based rankings of pitchers. The skills will correlate with QS better than wins.

  11. gareth says:
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    You know the saddest part of drafting? Its at the end of the draft and you have to pick a catcher from the 4 barely viable options left. Or you missed the boat on middle infielders and are frantically scouring though the remaining options.

    Its like picking teams as a captain in School and you are finally left with the dregs of the underfed, overweight or pasty science nerds who all would rather be somewhere else than on a sports field.

    • Men-in-Cleats says:
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      @gareth:

      Yes, but in elementary sports they don’t call up the best player from the grade below you halfway through recess and allow you to swap him in for the fat kid.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Men-in-Cleats: that’s a good analogy

  12. gareth says:
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    Fun fact.

    Kipnis was drafted as an outfielder by the tribe. Because they had NO ONE as a viable 2nd base option they attempted to convert him to 2nd base. Miraculously, he worked his butt off and stuck at the position. He wasn’t a first round pick either. He was drafted in the second round (chisenhall was drafted in the first round).

    My point is if he remained an outfielder, that changes his draft position enormously. Hey grey, where do you think you’d rank him if he was an outfielder and not at second base?

    • TheNewLeaf says:
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      @gareth: he doesn’t go that much later. A 20/30 guy with 180 RBI/runs? That outproduces OF drafted very close to him.

      • gareth says:
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        @TheNewLeaf: yeah. Carlos Gomez is probably a good comp.

  13. Michael says:
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    Any luck on finding out the other offensive categories used in the 7 X 7 player rater espn on your Site? My league counts Q’s and holds for pitchers like your 7×7. Just need to know what your other offensive categories are thanks

  14. gareth says:
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    The indians are doing the same experiment now with a guy called tony Wolters. They have a glut of middle infielders in the minors, but are thin at Catcher. So he’s being converted.

    Obviously the big one this season is Carlos Santana and his attempt to become a viable major league 3rd baseman. With his large number of at bats, eligibility at c/1b/3b and ability to hit 20 +home runs, how valuable could that be in fantasy?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @gareth: Shouldn’t hurt him…

  15. B says:
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    What do you all think about Kipnis (and position scarcity) in a 20 team league? Is there a point where you feel that grabbing someone in this situation would be more worth it since the dregs would be even more awful if you waited late?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @B: No, but I’d still want a good team, and not ‘dregs’…

  16. Edward Scherzer Hands says:
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    Hi,

    Who would you keep for this year? 12 team H2H: OBP, 1bs, 2bs, 3bs, runs, HRs, RBIS, SBs, W, L, CG, SVs, K, ERA, WHIP, BSVs. I can only keep 4.

    Zach Wheeler-round 18, Ryu-round 15, Homer Bailey-round 6, Holland-round 16, Taveras-round 17, Eaton-round 16, Xander Bogaerts-round 15, Frieri-round 18

    Thanks!

  17. Duke Silver says:
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    Hey Grey, I know I asked you this a couple days ago…but our league went down from 6 keepers to 4. I have an unhealthy man crush for Machado but am unsure whether or not to keep him with only 4 keepers based off of the rankings and whether or not I could drop him and try to get him back. Right now I plan to keep Fielder, Machado, Ellsbury, Bautista. Other possible keepers are King Felix and Heyward. What do you think?

    • Jay says:
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      @Duke Silver: I’m in the same boat only I am deciding to keep machado and deal Beltre for some earlier draft picks ths draft. MY silver lining ins that I was only planning on keepoing Beltre for this year and then lookng to move him. I’m going with machado.

      • Duke Silver says:
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        @Grey: My brain was telling me to do this but my heart kept giving it the finger. Thank you Professor Grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, no problem

    • LA Sound Guy says:
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      @Duke Silver: Keep Felix instead of Machado. ADP suggests you’ll be able to draft Machado much later than Felix. Then, if you miss out on drafting Machado (Grey isn’t drafting him this year, btw), you can always trade Felix for him and get a nice kicker with him, too…think Cobb, Teheran, Bailey, etc.

      • Duke Silver says:
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        @LA Sound Guy: I was thinking of something along those lines…my love for Machado was just blinding…

  18. Shawn of the livid says:
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    Opposite of position scarcity? Position obesity?

  19. Southpaw sultan says:
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    Great article Grey, I owned Gyorko last in a keeper league and am uber excited about his potential. Which leads me to a question, in my 5×5 16 team keeper league I can keep 7 players and my last spot I’m struggling with.

    Kinsler/Jennings/Gyorko

    Keepers being Pujols/Hanley/Beltre/Braun/Wainright/Scherzer

    Thanks and keep up the great work

  20. Ron says:
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    Generally speaking, in a 12-team 5×5 roto league…

    1) How many rounds before you look to grab your first SP?
    2) How many rounds before you look to grab your first Closer?

  21. Lincecuminmypants says:
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    Since this post is about an AL MI and makes reference to strategy around position scarcity, I’ve got a question. In a large roto AL-only keeper ($260) league with a MI slot, should I be trying to lock down an upside guy? I’ve got Johnson at $4 and not much else. Should I try to swing a trade for a guy like Profar ($10) or Miller ($13) or just punt completely? Thanks!

      • Lincecuminmypants says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! I know I can’t have prime rib at every spot, but reylingon Kelly Johnson and two other schmos for 2B, SS and MI slots in this league is like accepting a turdburger. I at least want a good mustard on it!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha

  22. J-FOH says:
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    I really thought you were going all coming to America with this one…..soul glow….is that velvet….he’s got his own money…..

    Cappozi is going to get the Italian-Canadian mob after you….he hearts kipnis

  23. Greyismyhero says:
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    Grey…nice writeup and I 100% totally agree with you about position scarcity..people tend to over think it and treat it kinda like drafting pictures early. I’ve been “punting” middle infielders for ages now and it seems to work out for me just fine. You can always find that diamond in the rough in the later rounds at the MI positions or off waivers. To each his own though. Grey, I just wish you wouldn’t leak these proven strategies so much over the open web. The secrets are slowly coming out… Smoke the green! Peace!

  24. Swfcdan says:
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    The more I read about Bailey the more convinced Iam that he’s legit. Have him at $5 in a keeper, a league where you can only ever keep 8 players. Was originally planning to just keep for one year at $8, but would you consider 2 years $11?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Swfcdan: I’d keep him for $11

  25. Wilsonian says:
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    This is a message for your IT guys. Not sure if anyone uses the Pulse app for blogs like this, but the baseball side of things hasn’t updated since the fall. The football side still works, but for some reason the baseball one doesn’t.

      • Wilsonian says:
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        @Grey: it’s an app for iOS and Android, it’s actually owned by LinkedIn. But it’s an app that allows you to put feeds like this into it and you can read the blogs from it. Puts all of your blogs in one nice place. For some reason the Football feed from Razzball is updated, but the baseball one hasn’t been since Oct. 10, 2013.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No idea, I’ll ask my web person…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Oh, wait a minute… There is something funky once adding the feed… Hold on…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Went down the rabbit hole for a bit on this… No idea the issue with Pulse, but our feed is working, so not sure… Sorry…

            • Wilsonian says:
              (link)

              @Grey: interesting. Yeah, thought something was weird with the Football side of things. I’ve taken it off my feed and re-added it and it still doesn’t seem to be working. It’s my favorite way to get my Razzball fix, dammit!!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                I’d use Feedly

  26. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    The best thing about the Kipper is that everyone in my leagues think he’s the second coming of Ryne Sandberg with wheels. I have little to no desire to overpay for him and enjoy sitting back and watch everyone fight over ‘dis guy.

  27. Sky

    Sky says:
    (link)

    The moment you mention an Indian player is the moment Gareth will be every other comment. Noted. Grey, could you scratch my Francisco Lindor sleeper post? Thx (and I keed, Gareth, I keed).

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Sky: its like catnip for him and drives prezii nuts

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        So basically they’re responding the same way but to different stimulants.

        • J-FOH says:
          (link)

          @Sky: one gets a boner for the mere mention of the native american themed baseball team and the other by a cat that can’t stop spraying all over the place

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            Gareth spray…Axe should bottle that and sell it.

            • gareth says:
              (link)

              @Sky: its kinda musky, with a hint of pine.

              • Prez!! says:
                (link)

                @J-FOH: @gareth: you ever smoke the strain Cat Piss? I get mine from Gareth…

                • Prez!! says:
                  (link)

                  @Sky: worldsbestcatlitter.com? You should feel ashamed just browsing that site!!

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
                    (link)

                    Do you browse every site you google? Is it an impulse like popping bubble wrap?

                    • Prez!! says:
                      (link)

                      @Sky: Haha YES.

            • Sheriff McRawDawg says:
              (link)

              @Sky: they call it cheesing cuz it’s FON to DUE

        • gareth says:
          (link)

          @Sky: btw – the real Indians sleeper this year is Bauer. They badly need him to step up and claim a rotation spot. The soonest lindor sees the majors is after the all star break – and thats if the shit hits the fan and we’re out of it and traded Cabrera. Also – lindors defense is outstanding but the bat still needs a little work.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Because the Indians need him doesn’t mean he’ll be good

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            Yes, I was being facetious about Lindor. He’s a 30 steal kinda guy if he can get on base but not a fantasy prospect by and large.

            When Bauer listens to someone besides himself, he might work out. Until then, he’s a top prospect who thinks he’s right even when the results prove he’s not. Little too headstrong. Hoping for his sake it changes.

            • gareth says:
              (link)

              @Sky: agreed. The diamondbacks traded one pitcher to the all central who managed to figure it all out. Im just hoping for a repeat.

              “Just because you wish for something does not make it true. “

              • Sky

                Sky says:
                (link)

                Yeah, definitely has the talent to do it at least so there’s that.

    • gareth says:
      (link)

      @Sky:you got me sky. Guilty as charged. As a cat though I have no remorse for such behavior.

  28. joeg414 says:
    (link)

    Would like some input with my 1st round 6th pick. 13 Team 6×6 mixed roto. Keeper List is out And I think these would be my choices for my 1st round 6th pick: Prince, Hanley or Harper. I would definitely take Cano or Cargo if their there.
    Thanks.

    • Big Al says:
      (link)

      @joeg414: Really like Prince in that line up, at that stadium. He’s out of Miggy’s shadow and I think he has a big year. 2 great on base guys with speed and Beltre batting behind him.

  29. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    My league is wanting to change to a daily transaction league in Yahoo. I’m the commish and want to make sure it’s set up properly before we do it. Right now if you make a roster change, it is reflected on your lineup for the next day. Does anyone play this way in Yahoo? How does it work?

    If you try to drop someone who is already playing, does it let you drop them during the game for tomorrow? Or do you have to wait until the game is over? Or do you have to wait until all games are over/the next day to make any moves? Yahoo does a terrible job of explaining their rules on their website.

    • Agreed it could be confusing. This has been the format for some of our Yahoo expert leagues. Any roster changes you make today takes effect tomorrow and has no impact on your lineup for today.

      • Wilsonian says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: right, but what about the daily transaction league. That’s what my league wants to switch to. I’m just wondering if you try to drop someone who is already playing, does it let you drop them during the game for tomorrow? Or do you have to wait until the game is over? Or do you have to wait until all games are over/the next day to make any moves?

        I’ve figured out that you have until 5 minutes before a game starts to add/drop a player who is playing that game. But the rules for after games have already started is confusing. I don’t know exactly what happens.

        • yes, usually daily transaction that let you make changes that day have a deadline of ‘first game of day’. so if it is all night games, the last time you can make a transaction is around 7PM EST. After that, all pickups/drops are from tomorrow’s lineup.

    • Michael B says:
      (link)

      @Wilsonian: In a daily transaction league, you can’t drop a player if the game has already started, until the next day. No waiting until games are over, you have to wait until the next day. It won’t effective date it until tomorrow either. The player will be blurred out if you try.

      I believe you CAN drop a player if he’s not in your starting lineup day of, even if the game has already started, but I’m going back about 3 years of memory on that one.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        Not to quibble here but I don’t think that statement is accurate. ESPN is a daily transaction setup by default. It doesn’t work that way and yahoo didn’t work that way last year either. You drop a player today who’s currently in a game in both systems and whoever you picked up is on your roster for the next day. I’d be surprised if yahoo changed the mechanics to the way you’re describing simply because it became a daily transaction league.

        • Michael B says:
          (link)

          @Sky: That’s not how I remember it, but I’ll defer to you.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            No worries. Are you referring to Yahoo set up last year or ESPN default setup of daily transaction?

            • Michael B says:
              (link)

              @Sky: I can’t speak at all for ESPN. I am only referring to Yahoo leagues where the waiver wire process goes from “daily – tomorrow” to “daily – today”, meaning a player gets picked up and can immediately go into the starting lineup that day.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
                (link)

                Yes I getcha. ESPN functions the same way. Was referring to what action you can take once the player has ‘played’. You can kick your Monday stream to the curb at 4:06 if his Monday start went at 4:05. We’re not saying that player is locked onto your roster until Tuesday AM are we?

                • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
                  (link)

                  @Sky: do daily-today it’s up to almost game time of today’s games.

        • Michael B says:
          (link)

          @Sky: By “Daily transaction league”, do we agree that he’s talking about making a waiver wire pickup and that player being on your team THAT day?

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            Yes but in terms of dropping a playeron Monday who played on Monday to have him for Tuesday. That’s what I’m referring to. It may be that I’m misreading or some wires are crossed in the conversation.

            • Michael B says:
              (link)

              @Sky: Then we understand his question the same, but I guess I have an awful memory. I remember the players being blurred out if the game had already started.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
                (link)

                They definitely are. But you can drop them for a player for the next day just as if they weren’t blurred out. Was simply saying I don’t think changing to daily transactions would change that. The one thing you can’t do is beat everyone to the punch at 12:00 am for your next day stream anymore, which makes me happy personally.

                • Michael B says:
                  (link)

                  @Sky:

                  https://help.yahoo.com/kb/roster-settings-sln6786.html

                  Maybe I’m crazy, but what about this? I swear this is how I remember my yahoo “daily – today” leagues.

                  “Once a starting player’s game starts, you cannot waive them until 12:01 a.m. PST the next morning.”

                  • MattTruss223 says:
                    (link)

                    @Michael B: FWIW, that’s how I remember it working too. You can’t drop the guy til the next day once he’s played.

                  • MattTruss223 says:
                    (link)

                    @Michael B: What was weird though, is if you had a guy without a game that day, you could drop him at any point during the night and add whoever you wanted from the pool.

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
                    (link)

                    You’re not crazy. It looks like you may very well be right. It’s been too long since I’ve played I guess. Yes, a few months is too long. Where are my thinking pills, honey?

                    Great, so all those 12:01 transactions still have to happen. Thanks for setting me straight. If you’ll pardon me, I have to go set my alarm for 11:55 for the next 5 months.

                    • Wilsonian says:
                      (link)

                      @Sky: yeah, see this is the problem. I don’t like that you can’t change someone for the next day after the games have started. That’s absolutely insane. And it looks like this is the case. I think our league will have to revisit this idea.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      From the looks of it, nothing has changed from last year daily or not so there’s that.

                    • Wilsonian says:
                      (link)

                      @Sky: I don’t like that you can’t change a player once they start or have played a game. I understand you don’t want to change them for that day, but I’ll seriously have to get up at 2 am CST to beat the rest of my league to the punch to make moves. Sounds like a terrible idea. Yahoo sucks for reasons like this.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      No arguments here on that front. Other than layout, I’d take ESPN’s format any day of the week. I proposed daily transaction but instituting FAAB where you can bid zero to cut down on this issue but it fell on deaf ears. Perfect world: player goes on waivers the moment their game starts. You put in your FAAB the night before, you get the player or you don’t. Next morning, everyone is free and open to the public up until their game starts. Wouldn’t that be nice? It would be the best of both worlds, IMHO.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Agree, RE: Yahoo and rules explanation. You can already drop a player who’s already playing on yahoo. I’d be surprised if that changes. I’d also be surprised if they didn’t just mimic the current ESPN process since it’s a good model to build off of but since the season hasn’t started, I don’t think anyone will know anymore than we know now.

  30. SMLV1 says:
    (link)

    Just traded my Sandoval for his Andrus…My team looks like this..

    C – Y. Molina
    1B – Goldy, Rizzo and Moss(1b,OF)
    2B – Phillips and B. Miller(2b, SS)
    3B – Wright and Moustakas
    SS – Andrus and Simmons
    OF – Stanton, Choo, Rios and Holliday

    Did I make a bad trade? And now that I Will have 3 SS, Should I try and Flip one to improve at another position….If so what position/or player should I target?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @SMLV1: Trade sounds fine… Could try to improve 2B with Andrus or Simmons…

  31. OneI'dWilly says:
    (link)

    I’m with Grey on this one. I think Kipnis skills back up his 1st half power, but his xBA shows the 2nd half is a better representation of his Avg than the 1st half. With less hits comes less counting stats. I’m looking at a 263 avg and counting stats of 85 R 20HR 75RBI 25SB That puts me between steamer and Grey. There is some upside with him entering his year 27 though.

    I think you can do better at his ADP which puts him as a late 2nd rounder. That where Longoria, Stanton, Puig are going. I take all of those guys over Kipnis.

    I dont think Grey nor I are saying he’s a horrible player, just not the best value at his ADP.

  32. Jay29 says:
    (link)

    I’m sure lots of people will be overdrafting SS and 2Bs based on a fleeting, intangible understanding of position scarcity, but it IS still a real phenomenon. You just have to know how to account for it, based on your league.

    For example, my league is a 1-catcher league with MI in addition to SS and 2B, meaning that C goes 12-deep and SS/2B goes 36-deep. That means that, essentially, you have to have all 36 MI in your top [X]rankings, with [X] being roster size times league size. So by adding value to all MI your top 2B and SS get bumped up.

    But again, it depends on your league format. You can’t just proclaim position scarcity does or does not factor into player valuation.

  33. jwow says:
    (link)

    hey greyson jwow here what does nelson cruz signing in baltimore do for his value

  34. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
    (link)

    Since it’s a 2nd baseman conversation I feel like it’s appropriate, in early mock drafts I’ve been tempted by Kinsler in the mid to late 60’s. Is this a worthwhile move or should I stick to waiting 6 to 7 more rounds to draft Jedd?

  35. Jon says:
    (link)

    Would you deal Archer for Arenado in a keeper league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jon: Yup

  36. Dani says:
    (link)

    Love all your work! Just read your ESPN article, did you do a similar one for Yahoo?

    If I had to pick between Yahoo and ESPN, what would you recommend to give the greatest advantage going into the draft?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Dani: I’ll do Yahoo tomorrow… ESPN has a greater advantage…

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: by this statement i assume you mean (which you’ve stated elsewhere) that yahoo’s rankings make more sense and are thus closer to yours.

  37. Jeff P says:
    (link)

    Hey, Razz experts, do you have a post or do you want to make one, on Kipnis-like players with pronounced career first half/second half splits? So if you drafted Kipnis, you’d want to trade him for Player x who is a second half monster.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jeff P: I’ll do a Sell on him around June

      • matt says:
        (link)

        LOL

  38. kingforaday151 says:
    (link)

    Grey, trying to decide if Andrus is worth keeping in my league format. A lot of expert ranks are down on him, and I want to know what you think comps between Kinsler/Choo mean for Andrus…

    Kinsler’s career line…273 AVG/.349 OBP/.454 SLG
    Choo’s career line….288 AVG/.389 OBP/.465 SLG

    Based on that, would it be fair to expect a career high in RBI for Andrus? Is it sensible to think that more opportunities will be there for Andrus at least, or are there too many other factors involved in your opinion? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @kingforaday151: Not sure what Kinsler and Choo have to do with Andrus…

      • kingforaday151 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Kinsler hit in front of Andrus for most, if not all, of Andrus’ career. Now it looks like that’ll be Choo. I’ve heard some say that who hits in front of/behind a hitter is meaningless, but I was curious to hear your opinion. Been winning since I started following your reads, so believe it or not I greatly value your opinion!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Gotcha… Andrus, Choo and Kinsler are all totally different hitters…

        • Tigres says:
          (link)

          My two cents: your logic makes sense, but a few extra RBIs on their own shouldn’t tip Andrus decision on way or the other…

  39. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    I think Magoo broke it down pretty nicely above. I’ll add:

    Hits in a premium spot in a decent AL line up. Batted ball is good. High LD%(24.3%). Decent GB/FB mix. 12.4 HR/FB. In fact he had a nearly identical GB/FB/LD and HR/FB line to Andrew McCutchen. Only difference is Cutch had 8% popups and Kipnis only 1.5% (7th lowest in baseball). The batted ball suggests that some of last year’s .345 BABIP is sustainable.

    Just for fun here’s McCutchen’s line and Kipnis

    97/21/84/27/.314
    84/17/84/30/.284

    So you got 13 runs and 4 extra homers out of the guy currently the consensus #4 overall. The BA can be explained by some BABIP and also Kipnis’ spike in Ks which may or may not come back down. But on paper they look like pretty similar hitters.

    That supports what I’ve seen with my eyeballs too. Kipnis can play, man. He’s got a really good swing and approach. Ball comes off his bat pretty loud.

    • RandomItalicizedVoice says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: you’re also paying for the fact that Cutch has been doing it for several years now whereas Kipnis has not, in addition to the question mark regarding his 2nd half last year. Cutch is very safe at this point….hence his high draft spot.

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @RandomItalicizedVoice:

        McCutchen really only has two years of top level performance. But yes his track record is longer and his skill level is probably slightly higher so you should pay for him there. But my point was to bring to light that last year’s production was not that far apart and their peripherals suggest that they are similar hitters. In fact, if you look at McCuthchen’s trajectory, he followed the common path of increasing his power as he matured and bulked up a little. I think there’s a possibility you’ll see Kipnis to the same thing and crest 20 homers this year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: I’m not that down on Kipnis’s skills, but his 1st and 2nd half splits are ferocious, which makes me extra worried when he gets a position scarcity bump in rankings…

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I think both Magoo and I are making the argument that this is not entirely a matter of scarcity. As you may or may not remember, I’m very anti-scarcity…especially in fhe first few rounds. But you can make an argument that, unadjusted for position, he still profiles like a solid second rounder.

        However, I’ve seen him going in the 1st round regularly in the NFBC draft champs and to me that is an over draft based on somebody being a scarcity drafter.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I hear ya (and Magoo)… If Kipnis didn’t drop off huge in the 2nd half, I wouldn’t have such a huge concern…Or if he was being drafted about a round later… 2nd round for a guy that has 7 homers in his last 500+ 2nd half at-bats is worrisome for me…

    • OneI'dWilly says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: But McCutch had a 83% contact rate to Kipnis 75%. McCutch had a xBA of 288 to Kipnis 264. McCutch had a 0.75 BB/K vs Kipnis 0.55. Thats why I project McCutch to be elite and Kipnis to be very good. Those 13 runs and 4 hr 30 pts BA, etc made McCutch $8 more valuable than Kipnis last year ($18 in the 2nd half).

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @OneI’dWilly:

        I don’t disagree with you and I mentioned that Kipnis had a jump back up in his K rate last year. His contact rates in the minors suggest he should be slightly better than he showed last year. I wasn’t suggesting the McCutchen belongs in a Kipnis tier nor vice versa. Just pointing out that there are a lot of similarities between them as a means of pointing to a general peripheral profile of a player that points to general success..

  40. gareth says:
    (link)

    Did I mention I’m an Indians fan?

  41. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    Ok guess this is a good time to ask how many years I should offer Kipnis in my league. Was currently planning 2 years $12, but could it be worth locking down for 3 years $14? Seems theres more opinions for Kipnis than against him in these comments!

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Only a max of 8 keepers any year though, and they carry over to next (i.e Kipnis will count as 1/8 next year too). So it’s not really simple as saying “yup he’s worth that”. In a standard 10 teamer do you valuable enough to keep at 3 years for $12 and taking up a keeper slot?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

  42. gareth says:
    (link)

    After reading all the love for kipnis, im starting to be convinced that hes a worthy second rounder.

    Oaktown steve just used Andrew McCutchen as a comparison!!!

    *sigh* if only the Indians had pitching…………..

  43. Nate Sumislaski says:
    (link)

    Hey razzball experts,
    I’m in an 8 team mixed league. Out of these 7, who would you keep? Goldy, Cutch, Kinsler, Ryan Zimmerman, Chris davis, stanton and ian desmond…miniumum of 4, max of 6

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not Kinsler

  44. Z.Diddy says:
    (link)

    Picking nits here Grey? Pure jealousy? I’m just trying to find out where a back to back season 15/30 2b gets tabbed overrated. b/c, as we all know, 15/30 seasons grow on trees in the post steroid era.

    JayKip finished in the top 25 on the player rater in both espn and yahoo leagues last year. How many guys in baseball are a virtual lock for a 15/30 line with 80+ in the counting stats? regardless of position, those numbers are gold. Take your Boy Evan Longoria, who is only a 4 category contributor, and who’s perceived value FAR exceeds his actual value. Longo is a realistic bet for 90 30 90 275, and that’s about it. he doesn’t steal bases. Kipnis is a 5cat contributor. 5cat boys don’t grow on trees, and they certainly don’t at 2b. How many players in ball stole 30+ last year, and how many of those same guys hit 15+ bombs? Exactly 4. Kipnis, trout, rios, and Cargo2.

    every 2b in babseball other than cano, kipnis and pedroia, projecting their #’s is a crapshoot. Gyorko played in 120 games, and has a rep for being fragile. yeah, counting on him for 160 games or even a repeat of his pop is just not good for business. kipnis is pretty much a 15/30 guarantee, and he hits 3rd in a pretty good lineup. The hate for kipnis i don’t understand at all, b/c even position scarcity aside, his raw numbers alone stack up in the top crop of the pile.

    Sorry Grey, but i think you’re way WAY off on this one. You can take your overrated joey votto and pair him with some scmho 2b later and i’ll take my kipnis and pair him with a rizzo and bend you over all day just like Teddy KGB did to Mike Mcd.

    • Z.Diddy says:
      (link)

      oh and @Z.Diddy: you can play russian 2b roulette all season long cycling in and out, throwing ish at the wall and see if anything sticks, and i’ll take my 15/30 at 2b and put that ish in the bank, and take my fliers where they should be taken: in the outfield and starting pitching. your advice is slackin on its pimpin today Grey. Jaykip is a beast, 2b or no 2b, his numbers play at any position.

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @Z.Diddy: Hi Jason, nearly ready for spring training?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha… You must have alligator blood… A 15/30 isn’t a guarantee from a guy who’s only done that once in his career…

      • Z.Diddy says:
        (link)

        @Grey: look at Grey breaking out the semantics to try and back up his bad post. correct, kipnis went 14/31 the year prior. and 17/30 last year. that’s pretty much what you call a 15/30 guarantee when a guy does that two years in a row. but hop on your semantical horse Grey boy and talk about how kipnis has only gone 15/30 “once.” that’s a clown answer bro.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Why say ‘Sorry Grey’ if half your conjecture is in the form of an insult? Disagreeance is fine. Look around you, plenty are doing it. You don’t have to come off like this.

          • Z.Diddy says:
            (link)

            @Sky: “sorry sky,” i didn’t realize that you just finished sensitivity training class with richie incognito. didn’t mean to insult you by pointing out mere actualities.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              I’m not insulted but of course you’re doing the same droll BS with me now as you did with Grey. Just suggesting you either be one way or the other. But you clearly don’t understand that so do your thing and enjoy your lack of reasonable communication back. I guess that’s what you were going for. Kudos for reaching your goal.

            • Greyismyhero says:
              (link)

              @Z.Diddy:

              “and take my fliers where they should be taken in the outfield”

              Was that a serious comment? OK

              • goodfold2 says:
                (link)

                @Greyismyhero: he seriously typed it.

  45. gareth says:
    (link)

    Im actually on my way to progressive field for an interview now. I may be going back to work for them…….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      PR?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Animal-assisted therapy?

    • Swfcdan says:
      (link)

      @gareth: Front office?

    • Prez!! says:
      (link)

      @gareth: mascot?

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @gareth: something that requires you to wear a hairnet?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha

  46. Smell The Glove says:
    (link)

    I can keep up to 4 players and they all come off the top of the draft. Who would you keep?

    Giancarlo, Pujols, Beltre, Price, Craig, Teheran, Carpenter, J. Zimmerman.

    I also have an offer to trade for Puig. I would give up my 5th round pick (which would be my first selection if I keep 4) in exchange for Puig and his 6th round pick. Would you make that trade? And is there any sense in keeping only 3 to get one of the first selections in the draft? I have the 4th slot when I do start drafting.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Stanton, Pujols, Beltre, Price I’d take Puig and leave off Price

  47. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Oh yeah…thought I’d mention that you might want to approach Miller with a little bit of caution. He’s starting to have a story that sounds a little Rutledge-esque. Mariners are saying everywhere that it’s an open competition at SS. The thing to be wary of is that Miller is not as good defensively. If he boots a couple around in spring and Franklin looks solid, there’s a real chance he gets the job. The Mariners may feel like up the middle defense is going to trump the little extra pop Miller is going to provide over Franklin.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I’ve been following that closely… Miller doesn’t have much room for mistakes…

  48. Sad Keanu says:
    (link)

    Would you want Moore at $7 or Rizzo at $4 as a 7th keeper? I’m keeping Liriano at $8 and 5 hitters.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Rizzo

  49. FMFBL says:
    (link)

    Keeper question regarding Machado –
    Seems as though people say he’s not projected for 30+HR power and won’t steal 15+. This sounds a lot more like Ryan Zimmerman than the mini-Miggy or even David Wright we were hearing about this time last year and before he came up. Am I selling this guy short? As an O’s fan I love him but tell me why I should roster a young keeper if the outcome is very good rather than elite? What’s his ceiling in your mind?

    Thanks for all you do!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s a lot like Wright… That’s his ceiling… Wright was never really a 30-homer guy either…

  50. hoog says:
    (link)

    Hey Greg, I’m curious how you rank iwakuma now with his injury. Still a top 100 guy for the year?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s been re-ranked

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha

  51. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    With the news of his injury who would you rather keep, Iwakuma ($6) or Pence ($16)?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pence, pretty much a toss up…

  52. badminton criminal says:
    (link)

    Grey….I know yr down on Carpenter,but I could keep him and trade him for Ryu definitely or Bruce probably.

    I have Cano and Longo in a 10tm h2h keeper league.I would have to not keep Mauer or Corbin.

    R,HR,RBI,SB,OBP,XBH,TB ,BA

    W,K,SV,K/9,ERA,WHIP,QS,IP

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Bruce

  53. steve says:
    (link)

    Closer Axford or Feliz with Soria as a handcuff?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Axford

  54. Heyward is a FREEMAN says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey your are putting out some great material right now! Can’t wait for the Yahoo vs Grey comparison. Keep up the good work!

    Got a fun(long) Keeper questions for ya:

    Entering the 4th year of my big money keeper league (12 team – Yahoo H2H 6×6)
    Every team can keep up to 5 players but can only keep each player twice.

    We have already decided draft order and I ended up with the 10th pick. Once keepers are removed I’m hoping to grab either Prince or Longo with my first pick if they fall that far. I really like Prince this year and know you do too.

    With all that being said here comes the keeper question. Currently I am planning on keeping:
    Hanley (5th Rd)(2 years left)
    Wil Myers (15th Rd)(2 years left)
    Puig (Last Rd)(2 years left)
    Sale (Last Rd)(Last year keeping)

    Now my question is who keep for my last spot. My choices are:
    Heyward (4th Rd)(Last year keeping)
    Homer Bailey (11th Rd)(2 years left)
    Rizzo (Last Rd)(Last year keeping)

    I had been pretty set on keeping Rizzo again and getting all that power at a great value, but considering that I might end up taking Prince in the 1st round, and snagging Jose Abreu later (love me some raftees!) it wouldn’t make sense to roster 3 1b. Or I could keep Rizzo and go Longo in round 1 and sure up my 3b early.

    I also think Homer in the 11th is a great value considering he will most likely go in the 5th rd of our draft once keepers are removed. I feel like Homer might be coming into his prime and really be an ace for the next few year, plus I would get him for 2 years to Rizzo’s 1.

    What say ye Sir Grey? And as always, thanks for maintaining the most informative fantasy baseball site on the web!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Rizzo and draft Longo…

  55. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    SAGNOF time, got elite closer Greg Holland at $8. Werth keeping at $11 (1 year) or even $14 (2 years. 2 years is probably crazy talk right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Keep for $11

  56. Ryan says:
    (link)

    In my 20 team h2h dyansty league, I just dealt ennings for kris bryant and brian wilson. Btw this we count holds in this league. Anyway was this a good deal for me?

    c evan gattis
    1b miguel cabrera
    2b brandon phillips
    3b evan longoria
    ss jurickson profar
    lf justin upton
    cf shane victorino
    rf michael cuddyer
    util prince fielder
    bn kris bryant
    bn carl crawford/neil walker/michael morse/

    sp clayton kershaw
    sp yu darvish
    sp cliff lee
    rp jose veras
    rp sean doolittle
    rp dan delarosa
    p zack wheeler
    p dan straily
    p tanner roark
    bn matt belisle
    bn charlie morton
    bn garrett richards
    bn robbie erlin/mart thornton

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not crazy about it

      • Ryan says:
        (link)

        @Grey: do you still think jennings breaks out and finally lives up to expectations?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Think it’s possible, sure

  57. Skooter says:
    (link)

    AL only 10 team keeper league, would you rather have De Aza (rd 12) and an 13th round pick, or Reddick (rd 13) and a 11th round pick? Based on our keeper rules I can only keep one or the other.

    Was also planning on keeping Gausman with a 14th rd pick, but the stupid O’s had to sign Jimenez. Will keep Brantley instead.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Reddick

  58. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    I’m sorry but I have to post this again, it combines some of my favorite movies into one great mash up. Oh and I wouldn’t draft Kipnis anywhere, as much as he passes the eye test, the numbers test, and the Capozzi test, I’m going to go all Tehol and say my gut doesn’t want that on my fantasy plate. I would rather take Miller or Scooter later and build a strong OF/CI combo with my early picks. If it came down to Puig vs. Kipnis I will take Puig for upside alone. And is it me or does Freeman look about as boring a 2nd/ early 3rd rounder as there has ever been.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXze55Z2GuY

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That’s awesome

    • gareth says:
      (link)

      @J-FOH: im in a coffee shop right now. I clicked on that link. Not only do I have coffee all over the table that was spewed from my nostrils, but every time Vader went “A Ha” I giggled like a schoolgirl. Everyone in here thinks im crazy.

      • Prez!! says:
        (link)

        @gareth: you are a cat in a coffee shop! You ARE crazy!!

        • gareth says:
          (link)

          @Prez!!: they have those in Japan and they are very popular.

  59. Jon says:
    (link)

    Has the injury news about Kemp changed your opinion of where he’s valued, or is this basically what you expected?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It’s what I expected

  60. ReleasetheMcCracken says:
    (link)

    MrG – Based on your rankings I’ve narrowed down my keeper options (12team H2H pts, keep 6 @$120) to one of these scenarios:

    A) Trout ($42), Tulo ($23), Harper ($21), Stanton ($20), Cobb ($12), Bogaerts ($0)

    B) Trout ($42), Tulo ($23), Harper ($21), Wainwright ($27), Cashner ($7), Bogaerts ($0)

    I’m leaning A but don’t let my expert opinion sway you. If neither of those stand out and you really feel like getting your hands dirty then you could substitute Donaldson/Gyorko/Rizzo for Cobb in A or Taveras/Harvey for Bogaerts in A or B.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      A

      • ReleasetheMcCracken says:
        (link)

        @Grey: We are of one mind. I am tingly all over. Thank you

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha, no problem

  61. Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
    (link)

    Why is steamer and the player rater so hot for Rizzo this offseason?

    Was he unlucky last year? Cause the eyeball test looked like a guy who didn’t have a clue vs. southpaws.

    Trying to figure out if he is going to be a big value in rd. 8 or if I should grab a quality starter from the Gray school – i.e. Cobb, Teheran, etc. and wait on CI spot for someone like Abreu, Morneau, Lind, or R. Howard late.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like him too… But you should ask on the Steamer projections page fro Rudy to answer…

  62. GusPike says:
    (link)

    So then, Kipnis or Dustin Pedroia? Deciding between them is my final keeper decision (already keeping McCutchen, Braun, C. Davis and Goldschmidt). I’m assuming both those guys outrank Jose Reyes and Choo, who are outside keeper possibilities…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I have Kipnis in front of Pedroia…

      • GusPike says:
        (link)

        I know…but only one slot. And that second half is hard to take. Maybe I just enjoy the first half and try to trade him away for the back half of the season.

        Thanks!
        @Grey:

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  63. Papajeansegura says:
    (link)

    Finally, an Homage to the smartest most insightful Razzball commenter!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HA!

  64. Homerj24 says:
    (link)

    Pick 2. Papi $14, Kipnis $18 & Beltre $21? 12 team, 5×5 (OBP instead of runs) $260 draft cap. Keep up to 7 each year. Salaries increase by $5 annually. No terms. Can cut bait whenever.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Kipnis, Beltre

      • Homerj24 says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Of Kipnis and Beltre … who do you like more at those values?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Beltre

  65. Jon says:
    (link)

    Better combo to keep long-term?

    A) Arenado + either Tai Walker or Wacha

    B) Ryan Zimmerman + Archer

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tough call… Arenado, Walker

  66. bozo says:
    (link)

    $5 Castro, $8 Papi, or $17 Hosmer? OBP league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Papi

  67. The Thumb says:
    (link)

    Do Liriano’s splits scare you at all? He had a 2.00 ERA in 12 starts pre ASB and a 3.95 in 14 starts post ASB. He scares me for next year but if you can already get Sanchez and Gray/Salazar before him…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      His splits don’t scare me

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      I wouldn’t focus on the ERA as a predictor; very rarely is it telling of what’s going on. His xFIP between the two halves (2.98 vs 3.28) say he’s still a reliable arm. His LOB% normalized in the second half to league average (70.7% vs 85.3% in the first) as did his HR/FB rates (6.0% vs 10.2% in the second). He’s more in line with a 3.5 ERA than a 2.00 ERA with room for upside to the low 3’s and a near 9 K/9 ratio. And along the way, no other peripheral really changed enough from one half to the next to be alarmed about in my book. A repeat campaign or close to it should be in the works.

  68. Jay says:
    (link)

    Grey-
    seems like you struck a nerve here with this one….

    What do you think about the following keepers going into a a draft where my first picks are pick 70 and 71…

    Keeping Votto, Stanton, Stras, Kipnis, Machado. judging by rankings and from what i can pull from Yahoo ADPs, I’m looking to target Andrus and Cobb ( i have to reach for cobb a bit because i don;t pick again until 105) however there is an oft chance that either J-Up or R Zimm will be there at 70 (my league is terribly down on these guys). Obviously if both are there I’m taking both and will wait on pitching some more, but let’s assume only one of them will be there. Do you take the one plus andrus or one plus Cobb? sorry it’s really a two part question…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      One plus Andrus

  69. jaw says:
    (link)

    who wins this trade? 10 team 5×5 h2h dynasty league (mi/ci). 25th round keepers become mark to market the following year (can be kept in the round corresponding to their espn adp)

    fielder and kemp for mccutchen and springer (25th rd)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Fielder

  70. Sky

    Sky says:
    (link)

    Taco Bell, you so crazy, you’ve gone Waco!

    'The Waco?'

  71. MattTruss223 says:
    (link)

    Grey, assume you did since you’ve got a post coming out on it this week, but did you get hooked up with the Y! vs. Grey rankings? I’ve got ‘em in a spreadsheet if you need ‘em.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ah… Could’ve used that about five days ago…

  72. Harvey says:
    (link)

    Cargo and Bruce for Miggy and Scherzer… Which side are you on?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Miggy

      • Harvey says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        He backed out last minute… And changed his offer to Miggy and Scherzer for Jones and Votto.

        Seems like too much to pay now for Miggy. Is that correct?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, bit much

  73. Jay says:
    (link)

    Whatta joke…yahoo mock drafts.

    So i had signed up for this one and then got pulled into a meeting so I didn’t get to participate. but I had my rankings set. I picked 5th…let the laughter begin…
    Your Team
    1. Miguel Cabrera (Det – 3B)
    2. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
    3. Albert Pujols (LAA – 1B)
    4. José Bautista (Tor – OF)
    5. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    6. Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B)
    7. Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
    8. Ian Kinsler (Det – 2B)
    9. Alex Gordon (KC – OF)
    10. Alex Cobb (TB – SP)
    11. Julio Teherán (Atl – SP)
    12. Francisco Liriano (Pit – SP)
    13. Doug Fister (Was – SP)
    14. Justin Masterson (Cle – SP)
    15. Sonny Gray (Oak – SP)
    16. Tony Cingrani (Cin – SP,RP)
    17. Andrew Cashner (SD – SP,RP)
    18. Matt Wieters (Bal – C)
    19. José Abreu (CWS – 1B)
    20. Corey Hart (Sea – 1B)
    21. Alejandro De Aza (CWS – OF)
    22. Cody Asche (Phi – 3B)
    23. Rick Porcello (Det – SP)

    No closers but with that hitting who cares….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Imagine what you can do if you’re in the draft participating…

      • Jay says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Quick question for you …

        In regards to bench hitters, looking at about the 19th 20th round and going by the top 400 it’s mostly hitters in the range of picks. do you still prefer to go pitching at that point even though the pitchers are ranked much lower than the hitters? I kow that the difference in ranking is less significant but do you recommend pitchers after say procello over hitters at that point?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Depends on the team, league and players involved… More than likely, yes, pitchers first…

          • goodfold2 says:
            (link)

            @Grey: this guy waited on pitching the way i should’ve (mock below), and got almost the same pitchers anyway. I can def attest that in yahoo hart can be got maybe even later,along with porcello/asche (not drafted),he went with 4 bench bats and no closers though. wieters went way ahead of this in mine though.

  74. Sky

    Sky says:
    (link)

    It looks like the Franklin to Mets trade market is heating up. Here’s the most recent information about it:

    • Jay says:
      (link)

      @Sky: I’m not 100% sure but i think this ??????????? translates to “the fortune you seek is in another cookie” I didn’t pay attention in this class though so i could be wrong….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice, would like to see that happen…

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        Same here. Improves Millers fantasy value/cushion if he starts slow

  75. John says:
    (link)

    If I am going to slot them at my util spot in CBS league, would you still like VMart over Torii Hunter?

    Keep forever league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah, take Hunter

  76. dave says:
    (link)

    How the hell is Trout only #5 on the top 10 player rater?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That’s for last year

  77. Mike says:
    (link)

    Kipnis the new hitting version of Dan Haren?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, or Te(i)x…

      • SteveNZ says:
        (link)

        @Sky: I think asparagus is probably better for me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Someone needs to clean out my eyeballs now…

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        Jay Wrong needs to gif that

        • J-FOH says:
          (link)

          @Sky: I’d still draft Davis, Pence is probably still washing his hands and turning the light switch off

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            Hahaha

  78. Kyle says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, great article and I agree about kipnis. In my league, complete games is a pitching catagory and I know in most leagues it isn’t. Are there any pitchers who’s value would jump up a bit in the rankings that come to your mind that could help a bit in my draft? Or managers that have a tendency to let pitchers go the distance more often?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Complete games isn’t a good category… There’s like three pitchers that had more than 3 last year… I could see bumping up Dickey, Arroyo, CC and Wainwright…

  79. Chris says:
    (link)

    Good article Grey,

    I’ll go in and read your write up on ike davis, but any thoughts about him being injured last year, possible sleeper? Worth 8-10 bucks in a 14 team 5×5 league as a CI?

    • Chris says:
      (link)

      ok im replying to me after reading you’re post I’m guessing $1 DH, bench spot or pick him up off waivers and that’s me quoting me!! LOL Seriously though I know he does have potential and in a 14 team league it gets down to scruby scrubs he may be worth a buck.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      $8-10 is too much, he’s not even assured playing time right now…

      • Chris says:
        (link)

        Thanks,

        Also, I have the #6 pick in a snake draft. Cano Prince or Jones? Or just go by your rankings, would be logical I guess.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Go by my rankings…

  80. magic mike says:
    (link)

    Your Kipnis talk make me worry that you feel the same towards Cano. I am in an OBA league. My last keeper is between $30 Cano, $3 Bogaerts, $9 D.Ortiz or $12 Freeman (but Ortiz or Freeman would take up my last 1B/Util spot and flexibilty). Your choice would be…?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d go Freeman

  81. P Swayz on a Horse says:
    (link)

    So, lemme get this straight. You’re giving Segura a pass because 2013 was his first full year. I seem to recall you singing this same tune about Kipnis (1st half player) last year, even though 2012 was his first full year. Yeah, yeah … Segura was hurt ( I know because he was one of my keepers from 2012 … those final two weeks of the season really killed his stats, eh?).

    Anythewho, I will just pin this on the assumption that you dislike Native Americans.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, yup

  82. Aconstipatedmonkey says:
    (link)

    Got a keeper question. 8 keepers, with no restrictions. 12 team 6×6 (OPS, H). CI, MI, 3 OF, 2 Util, 3 SP, 2 RP, 5 P

    Votto, Dread Pirate, Crush Davis, and Bruce are the obvious one. I need 4 from this group:

    Desmond, R. Zimmerman, Choo, Heyward, Mad Bum, and Scherzer ( almost said Jobacum, but that might confuse people). Any opinions are appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Desmond, Choo, Scherzer, Zimmerman

  83. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    yahoo 12 team mock. you weren’t kidding when you said pitching is deep. i actually felt bad as i went much better than pitcher pairings told me to. H2H league so i got 8 SP.
    8. Jones OF
    17. Harper OF
    32. Freeman 1B
    41. Pujols 1B(2 utils in this league, only 3 OF, he was around too late to pass up twice)
    56. Annabelle SP (really could’ve waited it appears)
    65. Andrus SS (feels like i needed steals here)
    80 Donaldson 3B (don’t like him, but you do, compared to ADP’s, and big drop to next 3B)
    89. Beltran OF (seemed best HR guy around here, with Moss)
    104. Cobb SP
    113. Robertson RP (fell to a run and wasn’t waiting till 128, maybe should’ve)
    128 Gyorko 2B (missed Hill by one pick)
    137. Liriano SP (could’ve waited for weaker pitcher)
    152. Lucroy C (could’ve waited for Castro)
    161. Masterson SP
    176. Axford RP
    185. De Aza OF (knew I could get him this low too, based on yahoo ADP)
    200. Corbin SP
    209. Qualls RP
    224. Porcello SP
    233. Griffin SP
    248. Crain RP (can DL and this way i’ve locked up HOU closer spot, could’ve also got Lindstrom here)
    257. Avisail OF
    272. Kluber SP
    Other than only 1 bench hitter (i can get 2 when i DL Crain) any issues?

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @goodfold2: pitcher pairing post (PPP!) actually works well for bigger leagues much more (even up to 16, i used it last year in my bigger money 16 teamer)

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @goodfold2: also only having drafted till this mock 16 and above teams ever except a 10 once (all of those 12-15’s were orphan teams) i am starting to get just what you mean when you say you don’t need bench bats as decent (not good, but not terrible) guys at most every position abide in free agency at offense. Only grabbed Avisail since it seems he’s more likely to get jumped on, and Miller was drafted.

  84. Fish says:
    (link)

    Position Scarcity argument aside, Fangraphs did a look into both Segura and Kipnis with their season splits between 1st and second halves. They found Kipnis’ batting profile of K% & BB% remained constant (good sign), while Segura’s both took turns for the worse…

    Maybe tiredness made Segura press at the plate or it could be a sign that his first half totals are more bloated than we think.

  85. Kipnis’s had prominent Neanderthal features. His race became extinct. So there’s that too.

  86. Oops! This auto-correct spelling feature on I-Phone gets me every time. It’s hard enough typing on this shitty little screen.

  87. 2nd round is too early for Kipnis but late 3rd round + maybe? Alex Rios > Kipnis ? Been faced w/ this one on a couple mocks.

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