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When you play in a league where you’re required to draft at least one player that sounds like a dish from a delicatessen, who do you want?  Kipnis or the Russian émigré, Kasha Varnishkes?  Easy, Jason Kipnis.  Even in leagues that aren’t drafted on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, Kipnis needs less selling than a five-day-old kugel when you look at Bill James’s 2012 projections for him — 88/18/69/.272/18.  If you look at his short stint with the Indians where he had 7 homers and 5 steals with a .272 average in 136 ABs that looks less crackers than it should, but it’s crackers nevertheless.  He had a HR/FB of 20.6%, which is nice but he’s not repeating it.  Last year that figure would’ve put him in the top ten in the league with hitters like Fielder, Bautista, Granderson and Mini Donkey.  His ISO last year was about the same as Ryan Howard.  As you can imagine, that’s kind of silly.  So now that we know what not to expect of Jason Kipnis in 2012 fantasy baseball, what can we expect?

His .313 BABIP from last year isn’t far off from where it can be, but more fly balls that don’t leave the park and his .272 will drop at least fifteen points.  He strikes out enough to make sure that comes to fruition too.  BTW, when an apple goes to college, what does it pay?  Fruition.  That one is for you, Highlights Magazine.  Then when his HR/FB% stabilizes, he’ll be closer to Neil Walker in power than a young Larry Walker.  Also, not sure where Bill James is coming up with 18 steals for him.  BJ’s Wholesale Club Projections:  All stats are in bulk!  And we have cheap hot dogs!  Kipnis’s best minor league season saw him steal 12 bases in 92 games, but that was the minor leagues and Kipnis is more of a player with good-for-his-position power and some speed.  Not good-for-his-position speed.  Since I’m writing this post in December, there’s a chance Kipnis actually gets overdrafted by the time we reach March and he’s no longer a sleeper.  Though if he’s still on the board later on in drafts or for cheap, I like him.  Think a line around 80/14/60/.255/12.  Which is much better than you’ll ever see from Kasha Varnishkes.

47 Responses

  1. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Wow… this is the first time my Survivor pick hasn’t been voted out within a couple weeks of me cursing (err… picking) them, let alone winning! Congratulatory cards can be sent to my PO Box, though PayPal gifts are preferred.

  2. Goose

    Goose says:
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    Kipnis had a pretty solid 21% line drive rate so maybe his 2011 BABIP is sustainable.

  3. zombie says:
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    Fruition. Ha! Gallant appreciates the attempt at seed-bearing plant humor; while Goofus makes fun of your mustache.
    Have a great holliday Grey (& Rudy)!

  4. chata says:
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    @ Grey :

    do you expect kubel to return to the numbers that he posted
    in 2009 , or is he strictly a platoon option ?
    who’s he stealing time from … parra ?

  5. FANTHEAD says:
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    Good post, Grey. I’m struggling over who to keep for a dynasty league: Ryan Kalish, Brandon Allen, Mitch Moreland, Jed Lowrie, and Alex Rios. If you could list them in order of preference I’d be most grateful. Thanks!

  6. Wake Up says:
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    Frank Francisco finally finds friendly field. Facade? Fact. Fuck Flushing faithful!

  7. OaktownSteve says:
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    In my system your numbers put him between Danny Espinosa and Jemile Weeks, which is exactly where MDC has him going. Bill James numbers put him between Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. Not a guy you really will need to reach for all and all I’d say.

    Side note not directed at Razzball: Kind of cracks me up that many folks who write about fantasy sports consistently describe themselves as being “in the industry.” It’s not like you’re making steel fellas.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Did they show who voted for her? I’m still confused how she beat Coach.

    @Goose: Maybe a piece of that BABIP then, but it’s good to err on the side of being conservative.

    @zombie: Ha! Thanks! You too!

    @chata: He’s not the player of 2009.

    @FANTHEAD: Moreland, Allen, Rios…

    @Wake Up: Ha!

    @OaktownSteve: Don’t know how much I trust MDC’s board right now.

  9. OaktownSteve says:
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    @grey: MDC’s ADP are sketchy at best. But since we’re talking next year in December, I consider it cite-able.

  10. Wake Up says:
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    How did Longoria’s Jewish great-aunt explain his batting average last season? Kreplach!

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @OaktownSteve: For sure, it’s all we have to go on right now.

    @Wake Up: That’s hilarious!

  12. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Coach folded at the final. Got called on not living up to his word (as a Christian man). He then almost cried telling how he struggled and failed to play the game as he would have liked. It was really less about Sophie making the case that she was that good. More about Coach not living up to the image he had tried to project for himself. Coach admitted giving his word to take Ozzie to the end, as a Christian man. They flashed on jury with the cowboy tapping Brendon on the shoulder like “I told you so.” They didn’t show who voted for whom.

  13. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    typo: Brandon

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: Guess I should’ve known that was what happened. Seems like every year except the very first season people vote against more than vote for at the end.

  15. Simply Fred

    Simply fred says:
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    Probst pollef jury after. Said that if ozzie had been standing, he would have won. Ozzie got the 100 grand for popularity. Brandon said family considered him a disgrace. Went to russel in audience who said brandon didn’t do one thing right. Was aghast that brandon felt like he needef to improve on the hantz name.

  16. Steve says:
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    So – Grandy comes to New Zealand on one of those MLB ambassador tours – and proceeds to have a huge year.

    On that basis, I’m all over Chris Woodward, Nick Hundley and Mark Melancon in 2012.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Simply fred: Yeah, saw the reunion.

    @royce!: Haha! He seems like such a douchebag.

    @Steve: I like that reasoning.

  18. Steve says:
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    I don’t know if Ryan Braun is on anything, but that t-shirt most definitely is.

    His wardrobe needs an intervention.

  19. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Ozzie, Brandon, and Dawn voted for Sophie (Cochran voted for Coach); that’s all we know so far. If I had to guess, I’d say Rick, Whitney, and Keith also voted for Sophie… Edna and Jim voted for Coach (the former is loyal to the end, the latter respects strategy, and Coach had so much of it, even if he didn’t live up to it fully).

    Funny that neither of us discussed (here, at least) a scenario where Ozzie wasn’t in the final three. Once that happened, I felt very good about my pick of Sophie. I knew Coach was going to get flamed to hell from a bitter jury, and I didn’t think Albert was self-aware enough to run a strong final tribal (a point driven home when he talked about being so confident in his game that he wouldn’t ever be on his heels leading up to final tribal… he wasn’t prepared for the push back that the jury gives almost everyone).

    Jim’s advice to future players was fantastic… to be aware of other players’ motivation. He was totally on the mark that Cochran wasn’t playing to win, just playing to be on the show for as long as possible. Also, Probst usually runs a pretty good reunion show, but I think the ball was dropped giving Russell only 30 seconds to talk. I know the thinking was that Russell can drone on, but Probst should have just wrangled him the way he’s done before rather than cut short the most interesting dynamic of the entire reunion.

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Huh? What picture are you talking about?

    @Awesomus Maximus: Probst runs a good reunion usually, I think other reunions have been better. He gave Ozzy too much lip service, but maybe that’s because everyone loves him and I’m in the decidedly smaller camp. He’s really arrogant. “I want to tell all the kids out there to fall gracefully.” Dude, you have a niche talent that you’re good at one reality show’s challenges, you’re not exactly Einstein. Coach probably apologized too much, which is a shame. Seems like more often than not the person who I think should win (the outwitter) never wins because everyone else is bitter.

  21. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    they should change the name of the show to “screw your buddy” .
    there’s not a lot of survival skills required .

    if i was to be stuck on an island , i’d want it to be with ozzy and sophie ,
    both , for reasons that are all too obvious .

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, his shirt’s definitely on steroids. Interesting Q & A too.

  23. Steve says:
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    @Grey: That’s what I thought too. Conte is a slippery bastard and no mistake, but he’s pretty much the subject matter expert in that neck of the woods.

    As I am, in the cliche department (emoticon).

  24. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Those red spots on the shirt are probably steroid induced acne. The back is probably a mess.

  25. Steve says:
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    @royce!: @Grey: Where is his wife/mother/girlfriend in all this? If I put a shirt on that looked like that, I wouldn’t get as far as the front door.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: His bacne spells out Affliction.

    @Steve: It’s worse, that’s his line of shirts.

  27. royce! says:
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    @Grey: It’s an affliction, you’ve got that right. Yeesh.

  28. chata says:
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    come on , already .
    where are yu going ?

  29. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, you had to expect Ozzie to get a lot of air time because of his mass popularity. I’m no fan of his, and it drives me bananas when someone butchers an idea (or ideology) that someone much smarter has already expressed much more eloquently:

    “Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.” — Samuel Beckett

    I don’t mean this to sound elitist… but how many morons are at home thinking Ozzie is saying something profound? How many intelligent and/or educated people are at home shaking their heads? Unfortunately, we’re in the minority… then again, we’re watching reality TV, so it’s not like we’re keeping company with the Mensa crowd.

    Coach apologized way too much. This is why I always go back to Yul playing the best game ever. He may have made less strategic moves than Coach did, ran a less strategic game (it’s an area you could argue either way, they were on the same level). What set Yul apart was at the final tribal, he was able to take a bitter jury and show them that the reason they were bitter was because he had done better than they had, not because he had been some kind of devil. And he did it in a way that wasn’t throwing it in their face, but rather, “Hey, we all came out here to play a game that we knew involved deception. It only makes sense to reward the person who did it better than everyone else.”

  30. chata says:
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    the O’s ? really ?? endy ???
    was judging reimold as a breaker-outer .
    besides that , i ain’t paying to go see a 33 year old judy out in left field ,
    with washington being only a half hour in the other direction .

  31. chata says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus:

    i have short-term memory something-or-other .
    who the heck is yul ?

  32. DWRlovesKAR_OLR says:
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    According to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan has the Rangers outbidding all teams for Yu Darvish.
    The amount as of now(nothing official yet) is 51.7 million posting fee.

  33. Doug Ault says:
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    @DWRlovesKAR_OLR: Based on the sparkling success rate of these transactions, I would have to say whoever lost, won

  34. chata says:
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    @Doug Ault:

    pretty small sample size , if that’s what you’re basing your decision on .

  35. Doug Ault says:
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    @chata: True, but the hype was similar for many of the failed experiments also.I’d rather spend the (100 mil minimum over 5 years total cost) on a more proven comodity.

  36. chata says:
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    @Doug Ault:

    for sure the ranger’s fan base is going to be divided on yu vs cj ,
    if only because of the money issue .

    the intriguing side of it , for me , would have been had cj signed on
    to pitch for the ham fighters .
    would he have found it easier to play with smaller balls ?

    that’s even a smaller sample size , but yu vs cj data for the next
    few years is a comparative that i would have followed closely .

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Yeah, agreed about Yul. I think overall they really need to get away from the returning players, but I like the concept for next season. I think it could bring a whole new dynamic having everyone together.

    @DWRlovesKAR_OLR: Yeah, saw that.

  38. Doug Ault says:
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    @chata: “would he have found it easier to play with smaller balls ?”

    There’s no need to get personal ;-)

  39. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @chata: Yul was on Cook Islands (better known as Survivor: Let’s Get Racist!) on the Asian-American tribe. He (with the help of ally and fellow Asian-American Becky) ran a fantastic strategic game, several times flipping the tables when his group was down in numbers.

    This was also the season where we first met Ozzie (of the Hispanic tribe). He (and Becky) lost to Yul in the (first ever) final tribal with three players rather than two. Despite deceiving as much as anyone had, he’s remembered as being an “honest player,” something that can only be attributed to the way he owned up to, and convincingly defended his strategy during the final tribal… not dissimilarly to the way Richard Hatch had done in Season One.

    Another neat parallel between Cook Islands and Borneo was that the runner up (Kelly Wigglesworth and Ozzie Lusth) was dominant in challenges, but failed to match their opponent in strategy and the social game.

  40. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Even if they keep doing it, I would be amazed if the returning players were able to last more than a few episodes. Next season’s concept sounds interesting… looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

    Did you notice that there was no mention of Redemption? This could mean that we’re just expected to understand that it’s now part of the game… or (hopefully) it means we’re done with that experiment.

  41. Grey, I adjusted Bill James’ projections by 25%* again and came up with 66/14/52/.254/14. Pretty close to your numbers again. I should keep track of this and see if this is an accurate way to weight Bill James.

    *batting average adjusted 1/4 of the last two numbers

  42. Vacation says:
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    11 team league. 6 keepers can be carried over each year. Keepers can be kept indefinitely (the same owner has had Pujoles and Hanley on lockdown forever) and no draft rounds are surrendered in exchange for keepers. My keepers are:

    Miguel Cabrera
    Ellsbury
    McCutcheon
    Lincecum

    Need to pick 2 more from this pool:

    Nelson Cruz
    Brian McCann
    Yovanni Gallardo
    Craig Kimbrel
    Michael Young

    Which two do I pick? Also, am I crazy to consider trading Lincecum for Lawrie this offseason? At some point Lincecum has to fade or get hurt, right? And if Lawrie is everything Grey says he’ll be, shouldn’t I be doing everything in my power to lock him down now?

  43. Ben says:
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    I love Kipnis, but I’d take Kasha Varnishkes over him in a heartbeat. That shit’s delicious.

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