Comments on: Jake Peavy, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:43:30 +0000

@Grey: Cheers mate!

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:39:32 +0000

@Steve: Late 3rd round, early 4th.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:28:23 +0000

@Grey: So, 12-team you'd take him mid to late 3rd round? Or still hope that he falls into the 4th?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:24:41 +0000

@Steve: I wouldn't hesitate to grab Peavy in the 40s. So 10 team.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:17:21 +0000

@Grey: Dumb question, but is that 4th round in a 10- or 12-teamer?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:09:23 +0000

@Tim: I am worried a bit, but is he more riskier than Johan, whose numbers have gone down the last two years and has arm pain in the spring? Or more worried about Webb's Win Karma catching up to him? No. Pitchers are inherently risky, and I'd draft Peavy at the right spot. Say the 4th round.

By: Tim

Tim — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:03:57 +0000

Grey, I read the other day that Peavy had some difficulties after he pitched in the 2006 WBC. Now that he is pitching in the 2009 WBC, are you at all worried?

By: Grey

Grey — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 00:15:13 +0000

@Fred Barker: Ah... Cool, thanks!

By: Fred Barker

Fred Barker — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 22:53:16 +0000

Thanks, Grey. Yes, it does support your post. Just wanted you to know that there is a little love out here for ya’ (not the man-kind).

By: Grey

Grey — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 21:26:13 +0000

@Fred Barker: Sorry, man, I don't know what you're looking for from me. I think it's a very solid point. It could be explained away a bit that he excels against those hitters/teams because they aren't that good. Or maybe the West just knows him better and can exploit the few flaws he might have. Either way, it reinforces my post, doesn't it? I think he's just one of the top pitchers in the majors, no matter where he pitches. And if he were to be traded to the AL mid-season, he'd be pitching against people who know of him even less.

By: Fred Barker

Fred Barker — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 19:32:17 +0000

Grey, I would appreciate your review of my analysis of Peavy, comment #12.

By: Fred Barker

Fred Barker — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 08:38:10 +0000

Peavy’s career performance against the NL Central is +15% better than against the NL West.
Career against the West: 36-23, 3.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.89K/BB, 3.00 BB/9, 8.68 K/9
Career against the Central: 23-11, 2.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB, 2.89 BB/9, 9.36 K/9
That’s 48% lower ERA, 7% lower WHIP, 12% higher K/BB, 4% lower BB/9, 8% higher K/9 and 11% higher win percentage (.676 to .610). Overall an average +15% improved performance. These stats reflect seven years against the entire Central Division. Given a minimal threshhold of 40 innings pitched, there was not a single pitcher in all of Major League Baseball in 2008 that matched Peavy’s CAREER 3.24 K/BB, 2.89 BB/9, 9.36 K/9 against the Central division—not one.

By: Grey

Grey — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 07:05:26 +0000

@Doug Ault: Decent analogy, but Peavy's more baffling to me. There's no threat of shutting it down this year because of injury. Peavy is 27 years old coming off a year where he threw 170+ IP and an under 2.85 ERA and nearly a K/IP. Um, that's bad? People are overrating Wins. Don't go chasing Wins, people. Or they're reading too much into the WBC.

By: Doug Ault

Doug Ault — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 06:37:22 +0000

@Grey: So Peavy is this year’s Abert Pujols,with a slimmer waistline?,……maybe he’d be cheaper to scam in a trade

By: big o

big o — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 05:17:11 +0000

@Grey: sounds like something my 3rd grade teacher, mrs. topping , use to tell me . ('cept my name's not gordon)

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 03:06:17 +0000

@chuck: There's a time and a place, and obviously he comes with caveats. I'd trust him more than Harden at this point and would definitely classify him as someone to look at late. Actually, anyone that can put up a K/IP is someone you need to look at. @Jason: That's a great idea and I do a similar thing when I go over my rankings. Just because someone performed poorly in 2008 (Gordon), doesn't mean you should disregard them fully if they're young with potential.

By: Jason

Jason — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 03:00:58 +0000

I like to use my cheat sheets from the year prior late in the draft to find sleepers. Get them in that post-year post-hype stage.

By: chuck

chuck — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 02:57:59 +0000

I don’t mean to jump the gun, but I’m interested in seeing how you feel about Erik Bedard. He seems to be going crazy late in mocks for someone that was a top 10 SP at the beginning of last season. Not that he exactly deserves to go sooner, but he seems to be a pretty sneaky late round pick.

By: sean

sean — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 22:58:15 +0000

wonder, that is…

By: sean

sean — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 22:58:00 +0000

@eric: I wouldn’t how long it is before we see anti-WBC clauses in stars’ contracts…

By: Eric W

Eric W — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 22:30:03 +0000

lets just hope the Americans get knocked out early in the wbc to keep his arm as fresh as possible going in to the season

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 22:00:14 +0000

@sean: The fact that Russell Martin's going in the same neighborhood of Peavy is exactly that, criminal. Ugh, I'm getting mad again.

By: sean

sean — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 21:50:39 +0000

With an ADP of 44, he’s being drafted in the neighborhood of the first catchers off the board. I’d have to think there’s more value in Peavy than Russell Martin going 80/15/65/15/.280.

I don’t know that I’m jumping up in the third to take him, but I’m not a big believer in early pitching. With a little run support, he could be the #1 SP overall. It’s criminal to see him go in the fifth.