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Any reasonable man (which, technically, I am not, alas…) would tell you Jake Lamb is not a 2017 sleeper.  Last year, he had a line of 81/29/91/.249/6.  That alone should mean he isn’t a sleeper.  On our Player Rater, he was a top 15 3rd baseman last year.  I’ve seen him drafted after 200 overall already, so some have forgotten about him.  I’m not pointing any fingers, which is difficult because I’m wearing a giant, pointing Hulk Hogan foam finger.  Perhaps Lamb was too closely associated with Passover and, hence, ignored.  I think this is religious mores or less inaccurate.  If you think it has something to do with Lamb’s 2nd half, you’re getting shawarmer.  But his 1st half had us screaming, “Shanks, Lamb!  You’re my gyro!”   When the summer hit, Lamb was baaaahd in August and September, but wasn’t he mint in the sprig?  So mint, he was making others jelly.  All right, I’m gonna eat lunch and come back for the 2nd paragraph.  So, what can we expect from Jake Lamb for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Wanna handle the 2nd part of that first, on what makes Jake Lamb a sleeper.  That will also will inform what to expect.  I’m gonna guess in some leagues, Lamb won’t be a sleeper.   In some smarter leagues, he’s going to be ignored due to his 2nd half, and, in some more casual leagues (casual leagues is like when the real estate agent calls a house with plumping problems ‘rustic’), Lamb is going to be forgotten.  Let’s talk about the so-called smarter leagues first, and those disqualifying Lamb due to his 2nd half.  These people aren’t smarter.  I mean, they might be, I haven’t seen all of their individual Sporcle test results, but they consider themselves smarter, so we will too.  In the 1st half, Lamb had 20 HRs and hit .291.  In the 2nd half, he hit 9 HRs and .197.  Maybe Lamb is a 1st half player.  I’d contend this is fine for 12-team leagues.  By the end of July, you can find someone else to replace Lamb in 95% of leagues.  95% is totally representative of no actual math, but there’s guys on waivers in most leagues.  Maybe Lamb was a 1st half guy because he’s young and wore out in the 2nd half.  Maybe Lamb was a 1st half guy because pitchers didn’t know how to attack him, then they adjusted, and, since he’s a major league hitter, he can adjust back.  Maybe his .240 BABIP in the 2nd half vs. his career .312 BABIP hurt him.  Maybe when he missed four days at the end of July with a bruised hand it was more serious than he let on.  Maybe he just sucks.  The last ‘maybe’ is the only bad maybe.  Yes, I’m partially waiting for balloons to fall from the ceiling notifying me that I’ve won the contest for using ‘maybe’ the most times in one paragraph.  So, we have one bad maybe and a bunch of whatever maybes.  Maybe we should look at a 26-year-old and ignore a bad 2nd half.  Yes, I like that maybe too.  As for the rustic leagues, they’re just not going to think about Lamb because they’re going to follow the ‘smarter’ players’ leads.  So, Lamb is the terrible player from August and September when he was getting unlucky and might’ve been injured because…?  Because he was terrible then?  I don’t buy it, and, as previously mentioned, if he’s bad in August and September again, doesn’t matter if he’s great again April thru July.  Will he sit against tougher lefties?  Yeah, likely, but that’s fine, you want him to sit vs. them because he’s not great against them.  I’m buying back into Lamb.  For 2017, I’ll give Lamb the projections of 76/26/81/.258/7 in 495 ABs with upside for more.

  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!

    Great article but then you’ve got 50% greatness in your name already, so I bet you’re great just getting to the bathroom first thing in the morning!

    a. Gonna love Lamb, just love the line of thinking. If things go south in August…cut bait and find something better. If it was youth and being tired from the ‘grind’ of a full season, he should be better in the 2nd half of 2017. Hence, better than you predicted. If his BABIP in the second half improves, which it should, then there’s that too!!! The flip side is possible too, though.

    Riddle me this.

    If pitchers adjusted to him in Aug/Sept of 2016 what’s to say they won’t just adopt that same principle in April/July 2017?? Huh?

    b. Some funny stuff from Farchana, USA. So the weather is getting slightly cooler; I say slightly because the day time high is still in the 80s – that’s like summer time in Milwaukee – hot enough right? Overnight low is in the low 60s, pleasant for sleeping right? Only the local Chadians are complaining that it’s sooo cold!!! I say F*** off, go live in northern Wisconsin for one winter season and come back say if it was cold. Everyone is like dressed up in 5 layers of clothing, rubbing their hands together like their in the huddle at Soldier Field for an NFL playoff game and wearing thick leather coats and wool hats (!!!) to stay warm! Crazy, right?

    It’s why Africa is lagging behind, inability to adjust.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Packers says:
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      @Ante GALIC: It’s 5 to 10 degrees outside here. The kids at the local high school where just a hoodie outside. Lot of folks with no hat or gloves on while I was out Christmas shopping.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: I’m like half & half…Half great, half Y A. Yeah, that’s a risk, but if he has adjusted, then he could be great for the whole season… There’s risk due to this, and why he’s not being drafted in the first 8 rounds as his numbers say he should be B. That’s hilarious… Sounds like LA… “We have a cold front coming thru… It’s gonna be 72.”

  2. Packers says:
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    Grey, in one of my 12 team keep all dynasty leagues where we start two 3bm I have K.Seagar, Lamb, Suarez and Healy. We carry 6 reserves. I picked Healy up late last year with the thoughts of trading one of these guys for some pitching help. Who would you try to trade and what type of SP help should I go after as a fair trade? I’ve tried a few offers to guys who I think could use a 3b upgrade but no response. I could wait and be patient and wait for injuries or once some managers figure out there guy is a platoon guy.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Packers: I’d trade Eugenio or Healy if I could get a decent return — maybe injury-concern Matz?

  3. Sisco (Chance, that is) says:
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    If there’s one thing I love, it’s unreasonable articles featuring no actual math of any kind. Keep ’em coming!!

    I’m in a league in which Steve Pearce has 2nd base eligibility. Will he play enough for me to consider using him at 2nd over more established options, or am I talking myself into something stupid?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sisco (Chance, that is): Haha… You’re welcome! Pearce should be a platoon guy, but as of right now, he’s a starter… I don’t think he’ll be good enough to start every day in fantasy outside of 15 team or deeper leagues

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Grey: No I haven’t, I drive everywhere. This isn’t LA, can actually get around the city. Plus I live right in the city and just walk all around my neighborhood. Saw there was an article yesterday about one running a red light and causing an accident in San Francisco.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, that’s what made me think of it… They’re trying to put the kibosh on it in Cali

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Grey: Yeah my girl sent me a nerdist article about it gloating because she never wanted me to get that job. Didn’t they say it was the human’s fault for not taking control?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, made me laugh… “Uber says the car with no driver is the driver’s fault.”

              • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                @Grey: Ha. Damn, that could have been me injuring innocent people.

                Oh, wasn’t there another line from Uber about how the fact it was human error shows why they are trying to have driverless cars. Ha.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha, I can’t imagine what could go wrong with having a person sitting in the front seat with nothing to do except paying attention to a car that doesn’t require attention… So, can I nap or not?!

        • Big Odio says:
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          @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: LA is a huge city geographically, I belive one if the largest in the world. It is the OG driver city because everything is so far apart.

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Big Odio: Ok yeah that makes sense. I just always see that traffic and can’t imagine trying to actually drive in it.

  4. The JoGarza says:
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    Even better news, DBacks manager said they’re not looking to platoon Lamb. They want him to be a full-time player. Here’s hoping to 600+ PA!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The JoGarza: I had read that… My guess is he’ll still sit vs tougher lefties, and we’ll prolly want him to

  5. COURT-VISION says:
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    I love Laaaamb.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s got gamey!

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: give me some minteresting marmalade! Wait is that a thing? It should

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sounds like something you’d get at a farmer’s market… Is that mint in your marmalade? That’s minteresting marmalade

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Sounds like an off-brand candle scent you’d get at Bed, Bath, and Beyond.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Or something your girl concocted at Lush

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: at the farmers market it would be a bourbon barrel aged mint lavender blood orange bacon marmalade

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Orange blossom, man, cmon!

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: orange blossom? how old are you grandpa? Isn’t it time for you to have supper?

                • Packers says:
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                  @Big Odio: Now you more mind me of Johnny Cash. The Orange Blossom Special.

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Packers: well I do wear a lot of black

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I don’t even know what time it is right now, maybe… I am hungry

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: sun is still up? time for dinner

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It’s humid too… I’m in Mee-am-ee

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      are you going full Jew?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Full Jew/Cuban! Pink and aquamarine pants and floral shirt…. The cabbie drove me by where Jose Fernandez crashed… If there were no rocks there he would’ve went into a hotel, I mean, they were headed right towards a very busy section of town

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Greyman Roth!

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      after that outfit you wore to the Nick Capozzi invades San Diego tour stop I can believe anything. Did you go with the wicker fedora?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Listen to the fedora get wicker!

  6. nick the dick says:
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    Plumping problems? I can get a little rustic when too much whiskey is involved…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Brown liquor makes me sicker

    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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      @nick the dick: You see that track I posted above? That jam has your name written all over it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Get it, Nicky!

        • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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          @nick the dick: I’m here for you.

          Still haven’t given that Sick Jacken a full listen but it’s happening soon. Oh, I re-found that Davon and have been listening to that all week though, much thanks.

          • nick the dick says:
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            @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Nice, I wanna relisten that too. Get on that Jacken, Grey and Ralph dig it. I love the General Steele so much too. And actually a few dope tracks on the new DITC that I linked in Grey’s last post, overall not too bad an album for a bunch of old heads with no Big L

  7. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    What ever happened to Ugly Kid Joe? Great band!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      The Source gave them 5 mics, right?

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: They didn’t have enough mics to rate it! Though if the Source rated pop-metal bands with novelty songs they’d be Rolling Stone? Amirite?

        BTW listening to the podcast, it’s sort of amazing to hear JB talk himself into Thames. I love it when he cites “Non-Koren players” as though America homers in the KBO count more.

        Korean homers matter too JB…..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Honestly, I was thrown that he’d go as far to actually talk positively about Thames…. Goes to show me, never underestimate fandom… Speaking of rating albums, I was just looking at Low End Theory’s Wiki page, and Entertainment Weekly rated it a B saying it was just a’ight…

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Funny because they loved MC Hammer’s “Please Hammer Don’t Hurt Them”…..

            This line from the wiki is great…. James Bernard from Entertainment Weekly was critical of the music’s intellectual brand of hip hop, finding “little passion at the core” and calling it “the greatest hip-hop album that will never quicken my pulse”

            I’ll tell you something forget beats and rhymes it’s all about the acceleration of my pulse. If my heart rate doesn’t jump to Cocaine overdose levels then just toss that record.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, read that… then they tried to right that wrong with Midnight Marauders… while Rolling Stone said MM was terrible

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: are these current reviews or posting ones from when the albums came out?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  When album came out

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: ouch. I bet the thinking was only tough guy stuff will sell and this is not tough.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      The Rolling Stone pan said Tribe was trying to hard to sound gangsta

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      hahahaha, and that’s why, among many many many other reasons, rolling stone is the worst music mag ever. They know that being from a densely populated urban area aka the streets and gangster are completely different things…right?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I feel like tweeting the review at the critic and being like “too gangsta” huh?

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Big Odio: DO ITTTTTTTTTT!

  8. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Lamb or Toddfather all else equal? Is it close?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It’s close, Frazier

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: thanks – I’ll be sure to take Lamb if it turns out he’s significantly cheaper (which he probably will be) than Toddfather

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Exactly

  9. ERad says:
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    Sometimes I’ll just come to Razzball to see your avatar – and then realize you’re still pumpin out content.

    Happy to see you like Franco this year – I can keep him in a keep forever league as a 3rd round pick – already have Harper (1), Altuve (7), and Rizzo (9). Most teams keep 4 guys, so most of the top 40 is already taken before we start. You think it’s too much for Franco in the 3rd to keep forever?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It’s too expensive

      • ERad says:
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        @Grey: Figured as much – I can roll with Ozuna in the 19th for less of an investment

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  10. JB2 says:
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    Getting hyped for next year! Trying to repeat as champ in my keeper. Keep 3 of the following in a 6×6 (OPS, K/9, BB/9):

    Trumbo
    Odor
    Arenado
    Corey Seager
    Khrush Davis
    Starling
    Trea
    Villar
    Yu Darvish
    Salazar

    My heart says Nolan, Starling, Corey, and worry about pitching later. Thanks in advance, Grey.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Marte, Arenado, Trea… can’t go wrong with a bunch of them

    • Big Odio says:
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      @JB2: Seager, Nolan and Trea

  11. nick the dick says:
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    Shel and Big Hait represent represent-sent!

    • nick the dick says:
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      @nick the dick: Ah, should always ask if you watched first…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Nah, haven’t watched

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

  12. Paul Lamb says:
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    Who you rather have: Kimbrel and Correa or Stanton and GCole ?

    12 team 5×5 roto keeper (keep 12)
    Have C Seager Murphy up middle
    Have Trout Kemp and Schwarber in OF
    Have Darvish and Grienks at SP

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Cole/Stanton

      • Paul Lamb says:
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        Thanks G. Can’t wait for your Jan ranks.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  13. swaggerjackers says:
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    If he sits vs. lefties, is he an option in weekly leagues?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He want sit more than once every ten days, not much more than most guys

  14. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Hey Grey! Still working on different offers for my $30 Kershaw (keep 7 forever +$3/yr), what do you think of:

    $30 Kershaw for $7 Syndergaard?

    $30 Kershaw + $6 Khris for $7 Synder and one of $13 Dozier, $21 Giancarlo, $15 Pollock, or $20 Marte?

    Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Syndergaard in 1st… Syndergaard and Pollock works for me… Or Marte or Dozier or Stanton, that order

  15. Rich says:
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    Day old post so may have to comment on the next one, but is $4 Ozuna for $42 Rizzo a reasonable deal? 16 team 6 keeper with $10 increase each year, budget is$275, 6×6 (ops and holds) roto.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It is reasonable, I’d want Rizzo

  16. Shits&Giggles says:
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    Hello Grey. Would you rather. Have Alex Bergman for $1 or Marte for $12 in a keeper situation. Thanks

    • Shits&Giggles says:
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      @Shits&Giggles: Starling Marte that is

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Marte

  17. Son of Pitches says:
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    @ 6’2 and 220…. Lamb has ALL-STAR written all over him… and here is why…

    2013 A+ .255 ISO, 17% BB rate…. with a 156 wRC+
    2014 AA .233 ISO, 11,4 BB rate…. with a 162 wRC+
    2015 AAA & MLB… 12% BB rate…. with a 91 wRC+

    2016 MLB…. .260 ISO.. 10.8 BB rate… with a 114 wRC+

    My 2017 Projection… is a .250 ISO… 12% BB rate… with a 150 wRC+

    Making him an ELITE fantasy 3B for many years to come…. assuming he stays healthy.

    Time to get him now for pennies on the dollar….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agreed, good stuff!

  18. Q says:
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    Getting closer.

    I LOVE JANUARY GREY!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, thanks, Q!

  19. Coco Crisp's Fro says:
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    Play in a 12 team dynasty league H2H, Keep 22 active,8 reserves, and 18 minors. Got a trade for Noah Syndergaurd for Bautista, Heyward, Alex Gordon, and Vincent Valesquez. Would you pull the trigger? Just worried about age of the bats of Joey Bats, Heyward, and Gordon. Thanks. Love the articles. Keep the stuff coming!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Syndergaard

  20. Chaz says:
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    You mentioned you see him going later than 200 overall … where are you mock drafting? Didn’t know mocks were open this early

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I mocked with some CBS experts… if you google CBS 2017 mock you’ll prolly find it

  21. Robert Haywood says:
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    I can carryover one of these three players being Lamb, Musgrove or James Paxton. We get an extra category for hitters and I am plagued with the hitter first mentality. That would make my keepers being Altuve, Britton, Chapman, thornburg , Addison Reed and one of the three mentioned above for my last player. The last two because we get holds as a cat and who knows how long famila will be suspended for. Thanks for taking the time to read this.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Lamb

      • Robert Haywood says:
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        @Grey: Thanks. One more question. I can offerd eith the combo of Britton and Champman or Manny Machado. I like the idea of having Altuve at 2nd and Manny at SS. But is that closer combo better to have? Thanks for the fast response and I really liked your article. This is the first time I have found your work and enjoyed it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Manny

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