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Go big or go home.  That’s not just what a casting agent says to men trying to break into porn, but it’s also how we have to attack these overrated for fantasy baseball posts.  I could’ve went Jacob deGrom, but he’s too easy to ignore.  He had kelp noodles implanted in his elbow this offseason for tendons, but can any man subsist on sea greens?  Nope, so you know a diet of meatballs is coming this summer.  You can’t only go kelp noodles; you’re setting yourself up to yo-yo; Oprah would’ve told him that; semi-colons are fun.  Jake Arrieta feels far less obvious of a CTRL-ALT-DELETE from draft sheets.  At least according to ESPN, where they have him ranked in the top 30 overall.  Coincidentally, as of the writing of this post, ESPN has Arrieta ranked right next to our other favorite battering ram boy (he’d love that nickname), Daniel Murphy.  But this isn’t about deGrom or Murphy or deGromurphy.  This is about Arrieta.  Oh, double negatives be damned, this isn’t about not drafting any starter as early as Arrieta is going.  I would not draft a pitcher in the top 30, but this is about Jake Arrieta.  Anyway, why is Jake Arrieta overrated for 2017 fantasy baseball?

He’s a guy that can throw a no hitter this year, that’s right, I said it.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he has some outrageously great games in 2017, but we’re not looking for some great games if we’re drafting him top 30 overall.  We’re looking for a top five starter.  That he won’t be.  Last year his stats were:  18-8/3.10/1.08/190 in 197 1/3 IP.  To lay the cards on the table, that was the 12th best starter last year or 50th overall, and, because I’m feeling especially fair, if he were to finish that high again this year, I’d consider this post a bust for recognizing a bust.  Other than pointing out his postseason stats:  3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 IP, I won’t dwell on those either, other than saying extra innings and an extra month of pitching is never a good thing.  What I want to drill down to like Boyd Crowder looking for coal, Arrieta threw his fastball 65.4% of the time last year and lost a full mile off the velocity.  I.e., Velocity is not at full capacity without the electricity, and this sentence is citywide.  His fastball is mostly a sinker, and it’s a pitch that still works for him and why he’s a top starter.  Unfortunately, a lot of what made him one of the best pitchers in the game abandoned him last year:  the slider that Arrieta calls a cutter (a slutter?).  He stopped throwing it at one point, saying he lost the feel for it.  That would account for why he upped his fastball usage from 50.7% to 65.4% last year, which was 11th most in the majors.  When you throw one pitch that much, you get into a situation where hitters know what to expect.  Is it a good enough pitch that hitters can expect it but still not hit it?  I’d say a 3.69 ERA in the 2nd half with a 7.5 K/9 would say otherwise.  For those wondering about luck, he had a .219 BABIP in the 2nd half with a 4.11 xFIP.  He was getting hit hard and it wasn’t a matter of a few donks and a blast, which I believe is an Insane Clown Posse song too.  If you throw out his April of last year, his season ERA was 3.57.  NRA may like that ERA, but I don’t.  Peripheral-wise, I see comparisons to Kevin Gausman, Aaron Sanchez and teammate, John Lackey.  All solid pitchers, but not top five pitchers, just as Arrieta isn’t either.  In summation, Arrietain’ta.

 
  1. TimmyGoods says:
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    Yeah but…contract year for the one and only payday of his career. I’m all in on Jake this year.

    • swaggerjackers says:
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      @TimmyGoods: Are there stats to back up the contract year theory or is it just an empty narrative with no facts to back it up? I genuinely don’t know but I’m skeptical.

      • Mantis Toboggan MD says:
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        @swaggerjackers: facts say people actually DON’T improve in a year where they are about to get paid, but DO underperform in year AFTER they just got paid. shandler’s book has years of data to back this up.

  2. Cuthbert Allgood says:
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    I agree…but he is $9 in my league. Worth a pick at that price early?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Cuthbert Allgood:
      Depends on how early you want to draft him. I would not pass up on an elite bat for him.

      • Cuthbert Allgood says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: In a keeper league with contracts as well. With that being said, we start in round 5 of a draft really. I have to decide between taking a SP with my first pick, #8 or the best available hitter. I do not have a 2nd round pick…so I am making a pick based on who I think will be there in round 3. I know the hitter, I want Odor, will not last that long, but I am not sure if the value of Arrieta outweighs Odor.

        • JohnnyBeGood says:
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          @Cuthbert Allgood: great question..wondering same thing as well. In a keeper league where 40 guys already kept, picking 11 overall , with so many pitchers being kept. Go Odor or value in Arrieta??

    • Cram It says:
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      @Cuthbert Allgood: What do you mean early? Is this an auction? $9 is chump change, he’s worth that price but I don’t know what “early” means.

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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        @Cram It: Was wondering that myself

  3. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    NICE, a slutter! gotta love it!

  4. Jensen says:
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    Grey, question about SAGNOF. Do you care at all about how many steals you have leaving a draft? I tend to only do moderately in steals but always very well in saves. Maybe it’s because I have almost no patience for pitchers and will drop them on a whim but I hate dropping hitters I drafted and still think can turn things around (Yeah, I held Justin Upton all year last year). Do you just force yourself to keep a roster spot reserved for streaming steals or what? I have trouble in a 10 team league dropping Devon Travis or Jonathon Schoop just to add a guy who can get me steals but is that what I need to do if they are my worst hitters?

    • Cram It says:
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      @Jensen: You should have steals leaving the draft. SAGNOF essentially means not PAYING for steals at the draft and instead drafting lower cost guys to fill that category. If you’re doing moderately in steals while excelling in the other offensive categories, you should generally be fine. Schoop and Travis are borderline 10 team ownable depending on the roster depth.

      • The Grand Poppy says:
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        @Cram It: How is Schoop borderline ownable? He’s barely outside top 100 …

        • Cram It says:
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          @The Grand Poppy: Depends on depth. He’s ranked as the 11th 2B, so if there’s 10 teams…

          • The Grand Poppy says:
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            @Cram It: I guess I was assuming there was an MI slot, which would make him a starter everywhere, much less ownable.

            • Cram It says:
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              @Th@The Grand Poppy: True. It depends how his team is constructed really, rather than a general rule. A 10 teamer desperate for steals, one of those guys could be droppable still at MI for a Peraza say.

              • JoeG414 says:
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                @Cram It:
                Just saw a 12 team mixed BARF League were Schoop went pick 289. Wow.

                • The Grand Poppy says:
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                  @JoeG414: That is absolutely outrageous.

              • The Grand Poppy says:
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                @Cram It: I wish I played in more leagues where guys would drop 2B with 270/85/25/85 for Jose Peraza!!!

                • Cram It says:
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                  @The Grand Poppy: It’s a 10 teamer! And you’re giving Schoop a favorable line IMO.

                  • The Grand Poppy says:
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                    @Cram It: Lol. That was his line last year.

                    • Cram It says:
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                      @The Grand Poppy: Almost! If you’re rounding up. Steamer and Zips have him getting less than 70/25/75/.265, which I agree with more.

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Cram It: well that makes sense nonsense. So what if the 11th guy fits better for your team than the 10th?

            • Cram It says:
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              @Big Odio: I’m saying, where he is ranked, just outside the top 100, it’s MATHEMATICALLY plausible that those guys aren’t starting on your team in a 10 teamer, so it’s not ridiculous to call Travis and Schoop borderline. OBVIOUSLY those guys further down the list may fit your needs better.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Schoop won’t be at 100% in April, there’s shallow leagues out there

                • Cram It says:
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                  @Grey: That’s all I was trying to say.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    This Odio guy likes to troll, I think

                    • Cram It says:
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                      @Grey: Odious

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Indeed

              • The Grand Poppy says:
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                @Cram It: I thought your initial post said ownable, which is different from starting. 10 team league has roughly 100 starting batters, roughly 200 rostered players (in shallow formats).

                • Cram It says:
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                  @The Grand Poppy: In that case, my bad. I was framing his worth in the context of his question. Sure, he could be bench bat. So if he’s a bench bat for you and you’re desperate for steals, still you could drop one of those guys for a need.

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Cram It: I was just working through the logic of this statement made by you

                “Depends on depth. He’s ranked as the 11th 2B, so if there’s 10 teams”

                • Cram It says:
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                  @Big Odio: My logic was based on math, and the math there puts him on the border.

            • Cram It says:
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              @Big Odio: In THIS case, the team need is steals, so a 25 HR .260 guy may NOT fit your team needs.

              • Mantis Toboggan MD says:
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                @Cram It: when troll tries to cross a troll’s bridge.

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Jensen:
      agree with Cram

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jensen: In a ten team league, you can stream multiple spots in your lineup… In my leagues, I don’t leave the draft with no steals, I just don’t pay for them

      • Jensen says:
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        @Grey: I snagged Jankowski late. I just always feel I run into the same problem of not wanting to drop a guy just so I can stream for steals when the guy I am dropping is overall much more valuable. Maybe I am leaving my drafts with too few steals if that is the case. EX: Schoop vs Andrus.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I like Jankowski late for that reason…. Andrus will be available on waivers in a 10 team league too

  5. Roger Podacter says:
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    Back in 2015 Jakey slid into place,
    Slutter, slutter, slutter, all up in your face,
    A lot of hitters trying to hit it but they had no grace,
    Some said he’ll be the best, but now is that the case?

    I have a quest of drafting right with a plan,
    Without that, you’ll think Kevin Pillar is superman,
    So Albright come and hit us with the funky Hawks,
    and show us how these guys are overrated like the fuckin’ Sawx,

    Not total shit, but their draft positions ploppy,
    You’re doomed for 12th place if ESPN is your copy,
    So be top notch baby, believe in the razz,
    and you have all the fake points coming right out ya azz.

    • Lincecuminmypants says:
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      @Roger Podacter: Well played. I wish your team more hits than the Braves or the Yankees.

      • Roger Podacter says:
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        @Grey: NOLA with a nice outing today. Mardi-Gras baby.

        *salivates*

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha… Skin to win!

  6. AntBanks says:
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    Good stuff, I’m down on Arrieta as well. I’ve read your rankings, so don’t accuse me of laziness, but I was curious how you might rank guys in a Points League, where volume matters.

    I have a tier of Verlander, Cueto, Yu, Price, and Arrieta. In points leagues are you as down on Price and Arrieta? Are you as high on Yu?

    • AntBanks says:
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      Go ahead and drop Price from that tier. Let the fun begin…

      • peacecoast says:
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        @AntBanks: boom

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @AntBanks: If you read my rankings, you know I don’t like Price

      • peacecoast says:
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        @Grey: I think he meant the MRI and the visit to Dr. Doom

        • peacecoast says:
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          @peacecoast: I meant antbanks of course!

  7. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Great piece that I hope none of my leaguemates see, Grey!

    Speaking of SPs, would you feel perfectly fine having the trio of Duffy / Salazar or Lackey / Hill as the top of your rotation in a 12 team H2H categories league?

    Auction draft but unlimited waiver grabs (capped at 3 per week), so I’d love to focus my auction budget even more heavily than usual on hitters, spending only $60 or so (out of $260) on pitching, then stream a-plenty.

    Thanks!

    Thanks!

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Cram It: The way I typed that was misleading . . . meant the trio of (1) Duffy, (2) Salazar or Lackey, and (3) Hill.

        Totally forget about the pairing tool! And yes, you’re completely right (in fact, the pairing tool would bump me to the next tier before grabbing the third guy of that group).

        Thanks!

  8. Five -On-One says:
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    So – Had my first draft last night (12-team, 5×5). I’ve posted my team below (with the round in parens). Appreciate any thoughts/evaluations. I know drafting Kershaw in the first round is frowned upon in these parts, but appreciate all feedback nonetheless. Thanks.

    C – Tom Murphy (20)
    1B – Freeman (2)
    2B – Odor (5)
    3B – Rendon (9)
    SS – Story (3)
    CI – Franco (14)
    MI – Travis (18)
    OF – Desmond (4)
    OF – Trumbo (6)
    OF – Benintendi (10)
    OF – Buxton (12)
    OF – Mazara (17)
    U – Peralta (22)
    SP – Kershaw (1)
    SP – Maeda (8)
    SP – Paxton (13)
    SP – Manaea (15)
    SP – Snell (21)
    RP – Melancon (7)
    RP – Colome (11)
    RP – Watson (16)
    BE – Glasnow (23)
    BE – Haninger (24)
    BE – Street (25)

    • JoeG414 says:
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      @Five -On-One: what was your pick number ? Snake draft ? Oder went around 60th overall ?

      • Five-On-One says:
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        @JoeG414: Snake Draft. Second Pick. So Odor was 50th overall.

    • Darek says:
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      @Five -On-One:

      I was in that draft (fistful of yen) and felt pretty good, considering I don’t like the end of the first round slots this year. I think it puts one at a disadvantage. Prob best value pick was Odor at 34. Wasn’t planning on another MI but couldn’t pass him up. Sanchez is an odd pick for me- I never draft catchers early. But Steamer values him at $26 so I went for him. Kinda messed me up and some catchers I like late were hanging around forever, so I kinda regretted it.

      First RCL draft but I’ve looked at others and knew RP would have increased demand, but one guy went all RP for his staff, so that made them even more scarce.

      C Sanchez (7)
      1B C Davis (8)
      2b Turner (1)
      SS Correa (2)
      3b Franco (12)
      MI Odor (3)
      CI Cron (19)
      OF Cruz (4)
      OF Herrera (11)
      OF Tomas (17)
      OF Pence (18)
      OF Pillar (23)
      Ut Suarez (22)

      BN Gardner (25)

      P Cueto (5)
      P Chapman (6)
      P Hamels (9)
      P Giles (10)
      P Nola (13)
      P Paxton (14)
      P Rodriquez (15)
      P Fulmer (16)
      P Madsen (20)

      BN Lorenzen- RP (21)
      BN Dull- RP (24)

      • Darek says:
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        @Darek:

        Meant to put this in the Great Knocke’s comment- that was the draft I was in.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Five -On-One: Your hitting looks decent, especially with Kershaw on pitching… Your outfield a little upsidey, but not bad…I’d take that team

  9. Mad Beach Bums says:
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    Yes! Slutter is easily the word of the day, now hopefully the rest of my day is as awesome as that word!

  10. The Grand Poppy says:
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    Your projection of 38 saves for Shawn Kelley looks like you think he’ll be the closer all year (they won’t trade for Papelbon 2.0 in July). Has anything changed for better or for worse on Kelley’s job security?

  11. The Great Knoche says:
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    First RCL last night. Picked 11th. Not to bad, got some decent values and late upside guys. However, Check out the ambulance Chasers that will be lining up for this one.

    C R. Martin (24)
    1B Rizzo (1)
    2B Cano (3)
    SS Peraza (12)
    3B Frazier (6)
    CI Healy (16)
    MI Swanson (15)
    OF Blackmon (2)
    OF Braun (4)
    OF Krush Davis (7)
    OF Eaton (9)
    OF Joc (14)
    U Renfroe (19)

    P Degrom (5)
    P Oh (8)
    P Rich Hill (10)
    P Familia (11)
    P Ramos (13)
    P Street (17)
    P Moore (18)
    P Jim Johnson (20)
    P Cotton (25)

    Bench Dickerson (21)
    Bench Gyorko (22)
    Bench Drury (23)

    Long live Gyorko.

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @The Great Knoche:
      I like your bats, not so sure about your SP’s, better hope Hill stays healthy and Moore and Cotton produce for you.

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: Yeah, Moore and Cotton are likely streamer spots anyway, but yes I am worried about health of Degrom and Hill.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Great Knoche: Ha, you might get 250 IP total from your starters… Hitting looks okay, little light on power

  12. Jason P. says:
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    In my 12-tm 5×5 keeper league, $260 in-season cap. I was offered Josh Bell ($3) for Aaron Sanchez, ($2). My league is gaga over pitching, to the tune of an historic 59/41 hit/pitch split. My other pitching keepers are likely James Paxton ($3), Cam Bedrosian ($3), Jon Gray ($6) and Mark Melancon ($12).

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Jason P.:
      I’d keep Sanchez.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Jason P.: Agree with MP

      • Jason P. says:
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        @Grey:

        I stood pat. Thanks for the feedback everyone!

  13. dhouse42 says:
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    Do you think deGrom is worth it in the 6th round of a 12-teamer? I’m seeing him there and I just take him, elbow concerns be damned because that’s a hell of a value if he’s healthy

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @dhouse42:
      Take Degrom and pray.

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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      @dhouse42: I’d take him…Every pitcher is a ticking time bomb for the most part anyway

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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        @Grey: Stop already

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You gotta be real with the Mets

          • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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            @Grey: I am, not worried about deGrom any more than anyone else

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Nope, I’d say you’re worrying a bit less than most

              • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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                @Grey: LOL…im not a worrier

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  You’re all “Mets news and chill”

  14. The Great Knoche says:
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    David Price going to see Dr. Freeze???

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @The Great Knoche:
      Just saw that..Great news for us Yankees fans! HAHAHAHA

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: Huzzah! Jose Quintana (and Todd Frazier?) to the Red Sox in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .

    • dhouse42 says:
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      @The Great Knoche:

      says he’s going for “second opinion” – but what was first opinion?

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        @dhouse42:
        MRI done first by team Doc.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @dhouse42: 1st opinion was “You’re so f*cked”

        • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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          @Grey: HAH

        • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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          @Grey: To which Price said, “no YOU’RE fake news!”

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            HA

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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        @dhouse42: It was an opinion he didnt like so hes trying for another.

  15. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    This schmohawk post was . . . justified.

  16. cf says:
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    I have to choose between Schoop ($5) and Ozuna ($4), 12 team roto (rosters are pretty deep). Who would you keep?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @cf:
      Schoop

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @cf: Apples/oranges, Schoop

  17. henncoop says:
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    In a slow draft of 50 rounds with 13th pick with 15 teams …I have Miggy, Marte & Odor…heading into the 4th pick (48th overall). I won’t pick again till pick 73. Do I need to go SP here??
    Carrasco, Archer, Degrom, C Mart or Stras are available
    But some nice bats out there with only 3 picks in front of me: Desmond, JD, K Seager & Rendon

    Any advice guys?

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @henncoop: I’d grab one more bat and then possibly go starter/starter or starter/closer at next turn. Load up on guys with rotation spots locked up later, you’ll need a bunch.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @henncoop: I’d push it one more round and hope a SP comes back to you… Take Desmond

      • henncoop says:
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        @Grey: Thanks Grey …Braun, Chapman & JD went in front of me …I took Desmond.
        Now I can sit on my hands & pray to the fantasy gods that some decent SP is there after the next 25 picks. SP seems to be going earlier then expected ADP. Maybe that’s more common with 15 teams.
        LOL at least Price was off the board.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, someone else drafted Price and now they’re only 5 rounds into a 50 round draft and they’ve already lost their best SP

  18. omar says:
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    Wanna pick your brain with a keeper question…

    8 (or 9, not sure yet) team AL Only 5×5 Standard Roto league. Can keep 3 players for one year off of current roster. Keepers for 2017 for my current squad are Mookie and Machado. Trying to decide on the 3rd.

    Options are:

    Xander
    Just Dong
    Darvish

    First thought is Xander, but Correa is draftable, and if I get a slot in the first 3 picks, I’m going with him in this format to lock him up for ’17 and ’18 (unless I get 1st pick, in which I get Trout). That would give me 3 SS eligible players. Odds are that this probably doesn’t happen, but it’s possible, though I could always slot one into and IF or Util position.

    Love Just Dong, but thinking I can probably draft him a little later.

    Typically never keep pitchers, but I’m wondering if I’m starting to get swayed by all the excitement I’m hearing/reading about Yu.

    Thoughts??

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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      @omar: J.D. for me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @omar: JD, draft Correa

  19. Count de Monetball says:
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    Dammit MEG, it hurts to read Arrieta is a schmo! ugg, i agree…
    Tell me who to smite and they shall be Schmo-ten

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Is that one hour and thirty minutes? I might have to set aside time next offseason

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Grey: Ha, you can just skip through it. Crazy Japanese wrestling, commented on by ICP. They are the worst ever, but pretty funny when commenting on weird barbed wire and thumbtack wrestling.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          We need ICP on the podcast, methinks

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Grey: To take subtle digs at them in the hopes they don’t realize? Sure. But you might want to reconsider if you’re looking to shoot the shit about the Great Milenko and chicken hunting. Actually, I’d listen to either.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Wow, are you a ICP fan? I don’t know anything about them other than their fans are called juggalos

              • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                @Grey: Haha, no, but I knew people back in high school who were fans. I might have had one album, but let’s not dwell on that low point.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I can’t even name a song by them

                  • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                    @Grey: Pick any combination of words out of chickens, Faygo, and clown. Bound to be dozens.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      HA… In that case, when are they in town for a concert?!

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      Well I’m going on the….pfft, only losers like them!

                      So if I join in on NFBC, that’s one less pair of sneakers I will buy.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, you don’t need anymore sneakers come on

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      I’m thinking about it.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It’s fun, you should… It’s super low maintenance compared to RCL… You draft 50 rounds and then there’s no waivers, you can change your lineup only bi-weekly too

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      I put my email into that Google thing in Rudy’s article. Is that it for now or do I actually need to sign up?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Rudy will contact you but doesn’t hurt and free to sign up (I believe), you can ask Rudy on his article though if not sure

  20. Hillman says:
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    Keep forever – Aaron Nola or Kevin Gausman? (5×5)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Coin flip…Who’s younger?

  21. Count de Monetball says:
    (link)

    I think it’s pretty funny that MLB is partnering with Game of Thrones, although I will be first in line on Daenerys Targaryen bobble head day! That girl throws some serious dracarys!!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Giancarlo Clegane!

  22. Jackie Treehorn says:
    (link)

    Hola Grey,

    Pick 3 keepers in a 10 team H2H w/ AVG and OPS — round to be kept in ()

    (6) – R. Braun
    (14) – D. Murphy
    (19) – J. Villar
    (23) – G. Sanchez
    (23) – A. Benintendi

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      19) – J. Villar
      (23) – G. Sanchez
      (23) – A. Benintendi

  23. ERad says:
    (link)

    Got a big interview tomorrow, put you down as my top reference!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I hope the interview is with Eric Karabell!

      • ERad says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Even better, Matthew Berry.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Are you applying to be his ‘pool noodle collector?’

          • ERad says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Hopefully one day! First is building a wall around his Wandy line

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I’m not paying for the Wandy wall!

              • ERad says:
                (link)

                @Grey: #notmyfantasywriter

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Smoke a joint, Sessions! Okay, I’m just saying shizz now

  24. The Dutchmen says:
    (link)

    Taiwan W. or V. Velasquez

  25. primetime says:
    (link)

    Grey, 10 Team Keeper League. HR/SB/R/RBI/OBP.

    I need to keep 4 offensive players.

    1B Freddie Freeman 1B | ATL
    3B Nolan Arenado 3B | COL
    SS Corey Seager SS | LAD
    OF Ryan Braun OF | MIL
    OF Starling Marte OF | PIT
    OF J.D. Martinez OF | DET
    OF Mark Trumbo OF | BAL

    Who would you hold onto?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
      (link)

      @primetime:
      Freeman
      Arenado
      Seager
      Marte

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      All of them? Oh, only four, bummer… Marte, Freeman, Arenado, Seager

  26. Q says:
    (link)

    Keep Robbie Ray or Matt Shoemaker? Either would be a 17th round pick.

    6th pitching cat is K/BB. That makes Shoemaker a shoe in, yes?

    Are you going to do H2H and Auction posts this year?

    Thanks

  27. Richard Davis says:
    (link)

    Can anyone direct me too, or give me a list of this year’s upcoming INTERNATIONAL prospects? I know MLB.com doesn’t usually have it out til about May. Everyone knows about Maitan from last year, and Otani for this year, but I’m looking for some other top players for THIS upcoming year I scoop up for the future in my Dynasty Draft. I just recently learned about Luis Robert, and it sounds like maybe I should have already knew about him lol. Any thoughts or projections on him, or any other top INTERNATIONALs for THIS year? Thanks in advance

      • Richard Davis says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Thanks for the links, but I was looking for something more along the lines of upcoming INTERNATIONAL prospects, who haven’t even signed, like Otani and Luis Robert

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh, ask Ralph, he might know, I don’t

          • Richard Davis says:
            (link)

            @Grey: No prob. Thanks anyways

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No problem!

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
      (link)

      @Richard Davis: otani won’t sign till right after MLB’s season is over. there’s many many articles about this (not razzball ones, just google otani)

  28. JoeG414 says:
    (link)

    Looks like I’ll get to pick my draft spot in a 12 team 5×5 roto. : 2-12 is available; Was thinking maybe 4th or 5th ? I could maybe get Arenado or Bryant, Whata think ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      4th works for me

  29. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
    (link)

    20 Team Dynasty H2H OBP. instead of avg.
    C.
    1b. Rizzo
    2b. D.Pedroia
    3b. J.Turner
    SS.
    IF. M.Napoli
    LF. S.Marte
    CF. K.Broxton
    RF. J.D. Martinez
    OF. M.Kepler
    Util.

    P. K.Maeda
    P. D.Duffy
    P. J.deGrom
    P. D.Salazar
    P.
    P.
    P.
    RP.
    RP.
    RP.
    I have a pick in about 12 spots coming up…Could go a few different ways…Arcia for SS/ Pence,Beltran or Moreland for Util/ or go with another pitcher Shoemaker, T.Walker, Or Lackey…Whats your thoughts on this.

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @JeF WiTh 1 F: Pick #247 for context

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Lackey being around at 247 is ludicrous

        • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
          (link)

          @Grey: He wont be around at 248 lol

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Ha

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arcia or SP, no question…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Likely just SP, even if it’s unglamorous like Lackey

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thats what im thinking….I can most likely get Arcias production from Alcides if i have to…Crazy draft man, can not believe how many teams went with prospects before even being close to finishing out their line ups.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, people always get prospect crazy way before they should in redrafts

          • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I get its a dynasty but why not draft to win now?? Strange…I like getting Napoli at 233 to fill that IF spot..With avg. out of the mix he fits nicely…Felt i needed some more pop in the line up

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, people overemphasize prospects in dynasty leagues… should always be win now

              • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Got Lackey

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Nice, he works w/ your team real nicely

                  • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Yeah the team as a whole has come together pretty good

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yup

  30. Member Berries says:
    (link)

    re: Zack Wheeler

    Fantasy Master Lothario

    What are your instincts on Zack Wheeler? what kind of upside could we expect should he stay healthy?

    He would be my #7 SP in a deep H2H league with standard categories plus holds. I could play it safe w/ Kazmir or a RP but i feel as if Wheeler may be the right gamble.

    What say you!?

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Member Berries: I dont think you get much from Wheeler this year..He’ll be on an innings limit and probably in the Pen for a while…Hes a better pick in 2018

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Member Berries: What size league because Kazmir isnt really playing it safe

      • Member Berries says:
        (link)

        @JeF WiTh 1 F:

        18 team – 25 player roster with 10 minor league spots

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s fine as 7th, I don’t trust him as my ranking say

  31. Ante Galic says:
    (link)

    Grey!

    Nice post!

    a. Was super busy all day until about one hour ago.

    b. Plenty of quality pitching available that guys don’t have to cream their pants for Arrieta. Plus everything you mentioned – 0.216 BABIP!!! That’ll never be repeated.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ante! I thought you were on the side of the road somewhere in Chad

  32. DonnieB says:
    (link)

    Keeper Question for 12 Team Roto with $300 cap. Here are my for sure guys:
    Arenado. $13
    Betts. $20
    Thor. $1
    C Seager. $10
    Chapman. $15
    I need to select three of the following 4 options:
    Machado. $56
    Yelich. $22
    R Osuna. $10
    Segura. $10
    I assume Segura is one. Do you agree and who would be other two between Machado,Yelich and Osuna?
    Thank Grey for all your help.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, Machado, Yelich

  33. nick the dick says:
    (link)

    Just watched Moonlight and had no idea that’s was what it was about going into it

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hahahaha, and?

      • nick the dick says:
        (link)

        @Grey: It was very good, I liked it. Deserving of all the insane praise? Maybe not. I get now why all the buzz and all the critics loving it. The issues. I also just watched Manchester By The Sea and I thought it was a better movie.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I liked Manchester a lot, but I liked Moonlight better… It felt completely lived in w/out any Hollywood BS

          • nick the dick says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Yeah I can see that, were both great. In Manchester, I thought they played the bits of humor into a depressing story so well. I watched em back to back nights and just found myself way deeper into Manchester

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Manchester fell apart a little for me at the end… So bleak w/out much redemption… Not that I disliked it…. So you rooting for Shirley tonight?

              • nick the dick says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Screw redemption, not everyone gets it. He got as much as he could with his nephew it seemed, he’s getting a 2 bedroom so he can come visit!…I don’t know if I can root for Shirley, I feel like the whole thing was an elaborate hoax. I sweeear during the credits I saw a producer named Cougs Albright. Maybe I’ve been spending too much time alone in my four cornered room staring at candles…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  You need a bowl of hugs like Casey Affleck

                  • nick the dick says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: I need redemption!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Get redemption with Shirley!

                  • nick the dick says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Seriously tho, I’ll be on team Shirley. Fuck it, awesome that we nailed 2 of the top 3 so i’ll be a good sport. Hug those judges!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Sadly I think the narrative is blowing in our face and the tide is lifting Brooke… whoa sailing metaphors!

                  • nick the dick says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Yeah she’s been riding high with a wave of momentum. Hopefully Shirl can take the wind out of her sails

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Hopefully Shirl goes for the bow

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Have either of you seen Captain Fantastic? One of my favorites from the season and very cool to see Viggo get some incredibly well-deserved recognition.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It’s like the one movie I haven’t seen from last year… I want to though

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Same thing for me (just saw it about a week ago). Highly recommended, and Viggo killed it in every scene.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              You know where Viggo was incredible? A History of Violence

              • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
                (link)

                @Grey: God yes. That scene when he’s by himself driving to his old stomping grounds, when he just silently changes characters to his old persona is pretty incredible.

                Also loved him in the Road + Eastern Promises (aka. why I stopped going to Russian mob spas twice a day)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Eastern Promises was good too… He’s so underrated… The Lance McCullers of movies

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
            (link)

            @nick the dick: Refreshingly different and just good all around, in the same vein as what Little Miss Sunshine felt like before a million movies afterwards tried to copy that same vibe.

  34. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! How’s my H2H categories (keep 5) team look? Daily lineups, OBP + OPS (no AVG) and QS.

    C – Martin
    1B – Freeman
    2B – Carpenter (feel like you’ll groan at this, but the dude is a .365+ obp / .850+ ops STL 3 hitter)
    SS – Story
    3B – Villar
    OF – Trout
    OF – Cruz (could have taken Stanton but got scared . . . wondering if I should have sucked it up and gone for Giancarlo)
    OF – Dahl
    UTL – Pederson
    Bench – Broxton (really love him in OBP, such that I broke the no bench bat rule).

    SPs – Duffy, Lackey, Hill, McCullers, Paxton, Shoemaker, Ray, Nova, Cotton, Urias, Richards ($1 lottery chip)

    RPs – Diaz, Giles, Herrera

    A little worried about pop if Cruz suddenly falls off (though Freeman and Joc should pop 28-30), but I think this team should post big counting stats and OBP and OPS ratios.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      How many teams?

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Sorry, 12 teams.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like the team, looks a little light on speed, which isn’t bad in an OPS H2H…. Pitching looks slightly injury prone, but I like the guys obvi

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks – during a mock draft I drafted basically the same team, but instead of Freeman + Carpenter, I went Trea Turner and Carlos Santana. Sounds like you would favor the Trea + Santana pairing over the one with Freeman (who Santana sort of fakes in OBP OPS)?

        Agreed on the SPs, though I guess that’s what you get when shopping at the five and dime. That being said, I drafted the elite closers hoping that I can flip them to my leaguemates for aces mid season when I’ve grabbed the Carter Capps’ and Nate Jones’ of the world.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, Trea/Santana are slightly better…

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
            (link)

            @Grey: thanks

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No problem

  35. Shits&Giggles says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey. I’m trying to finalize my keeper list and need a little advise. I have flexibility on my roster up the middle and in OF. That being said I’m narrowing it to 3 of these four. Thanks for your feedback. D Murphy $4. Cano $16 or Hanley Ramirez $4. Pollock $22. I’m thinking Hanley at that price is a steal with his position in that lineup. Murphy and Cano a toss up. Pollock who knows!

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
      (link)

      @Shits&Giggles: I’m not Grey (surprise!) and would defer to him, but I think Pollock is the odd man out. I’m a big Pollock fan, but you should be able to draft him at that price . . . and as much as I hate David Murphy, that’s a really cheap .300 with plenty of counting stats.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      D Murphy $4. Cano $16 or Hanley Ramirez

  36. Austin Millbarge says:
    (link)

    Grey – keeper question:

    8 team AL only Auction – $260 budget – only allowed to keep 5 players max:
    Springer – $25
    Odor – $22
    Bergman – $10
    Verlander – $19
    Shoemaker – $11
    Snell – $10
    Colome – $10
    Skaggs – $10
    Happ – $7

    I’m pretty convinced on the first 4, but the 5th is tougher. What do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d roll dice on Snell

      • Austin Millbarge says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Thanks

        Same question in NL
        Murphy – $20
        Blackmon – $20
        A. Diaz – $10
        Franco – $13
        Tommy Joseph – $10
        Oh – $10
        Nola – $11

        I feel good about Blackmon (as long as he doesn’t get traded to AL), Diaz, Franco, Oh. Am I better off keeping Joseph or Nola instead of Murphy and having the extra cash for draft?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nola

  37. henncoop says:
    (link)

    Back in my 15 team draft with 50 rounds …in the late 5th round. I have Miggy, Odor, Marte & Desmond & desperately need a SP or two. DeGrom & Stras both went recently.
    Best SP available are Cole, Duddy, Hamels, Maeda, Duffy, Tanaka, & Salazar …most of these would be picked 25 to 30 ahead of ADP. But SP seems to be going early
    I will have the 73rd & 78th picks then sit for 25 picks.
    Best bats are Hanley, Rendon, Trumbo, Frazier & Dahl
    Top 3 RP are off the board …might be a run before I pick again.
    Suggestions are happily appreciated

    • henncoop says:
      (link)

      @henncoop: Duffy** sorry

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You need an SP… Go off my rankings

      • henncoop says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Do I need 1 or 2 SPs? Could I go SP/RP with 4 RP now gone & a 25 pick wait. Might nice to have a guy like Diaz for Ks since I won’t have an elite SP.
        Thanks for the help …lol this should be fun …right?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          2 SPs

  38. henncoop says:
    (link)

    Sorry again …1 pick before me & another team with 2 picks after me have no SPs as well . I am freaking out just a bit

  39. Q says:
    (link)

    Strategy question for H2H categories:

    12 team league w standard roto rosters. 6×6 w OPS & K/BB as extra categories. Also, it’s SV+HLD, so lots of relievers have value and closers not scarce.

    We have daily lineup changes but only 5 add/drops per week.

    I’m wondering what is the best use of my 4 bench spots. Hitters, since it’s hard to batty call? Maybe platoon guys who are really good but only play part time? Multi position guys like Javier Baez or Gyorko? Starting pitchers to allow flexibility and benching guys in bad matchups? All MRs to try to win saves/holds and get ratio help?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      1 hitter, 3 SPs — Baez works

  40. Jason says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey

    I’m in a 12 team H2H keeper “keep forever” league. We have the following categories:
    R H HR RBI BB K SB TB AVG OPS and IP K/9 K/BB QS W ERA WHIP HRA SV+HLDs

    I want to improve my team’s pitching.

    I received an offer where I trade JDMart for DDuffy and Chapman

    At SP I have Arrieta Greinke Hill Lackey with Miller Diaz at RP
    At RF I have Cruz JD JoeyBats Conforto

    I like JD. He’s one of the premier power hitters in the league. But I’m wondering if I should do this deal or not. Is it enough value for JD? Ask for more?

    Which side would you want in a keeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It’s fair, you need JD more than Duffy/Chapman

      • Jason says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks

        We keep 20 in this league: here’s my keepers.

        1B – Edwin
        2B – Gordon
        3B – JRamirez
        SS – Segura
        CI – Kang
        MI – ADiaz
        LF – Thames
        CF – Pollock
        RF – Cruz
        OF – Bautista
        OF – Broxton
        UTIL – JD Martinez
        UTIL – VMart
        Bench – Conforto
        6 Pitchers listed above

        Given the above bats listed do you still think I need JD more than Duffy/Chapman?

        Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh he’s UTIL? Take Duffy/Aroldis

          • Jason says:
            (link)

            @Grey: yeah, I mean we play LF/CF/RF and two OF spots so I could slot him in RF/OF or one of two UTIL spots

  41. peacecoast says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Who do you like Revere or Span this year?

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
      (link)

      @peacecoast: revere if/when he gets playing time, which he doesn’t yet have.

  42. Kimo says:
    (link)

    Arrieta or Oh and next 3 years of Fulmer in a 14 team dynasty?

Comments are closed.