Pagan is different in my mind as he shouldnt be cheap (but that’s just splitting hairs). I’m a huge pagan supporter and will own him everywhere, I imagine!

I worry about Revere getting on base and think Torres is mostly done. But, very good points!

But yeah, grey and i didnt think this column was as interesting as this! I gotta figure out what i did and channel it into other writing!

My unique blend of conservatism and liberalism would result in some asinine policies…although it’d be cool to meet some of the sports teams, not the New York Giants though (i’m a bitter eagles fan).

If you want to start a PAC though, I’ll consider it!

Tb and runs should be near the top.

RBIs he’ll be maybe in the 30-45 range.

He doesnt strike out a ton, so that’s good.

He should post a .370 OBP, bat .300.

SBNET is kind of a toss up, was bad last year, but still think he’ll net 32 bases.

Looking forward for more debates!!

I looked at fangraphs too quickly when assessing his walk rate — it was actually right in line with his career (7.1% v 6.9%). Whoops.

If we didnt have contrarians like you, I wouldnt be able to get a good value on Ellsbury in this year’s draft!

I don’t mean to bash your analysis of Ellsbury in any way (although I will say his walk rate actually DECLINED last season!). We simply disagree about drafting strategy and that’s as common as sand grains on the beach.

Personally, I’ve always liked Ellsbury as well, but I like to think the world would be slightly less interesting without contrarians like myself.

Good luck and thanks for the article and the healthy debate.

I tend to agree that HR are slightly more reliable from year to year (just dont tell Adam Dunn’s fantasy owners . And that 59-54 number doesnt shock me at all.

However, I do think Ellsbury goes beyond being a mere base stealer. Given that he is capable of finishing in the top of almost every category he possesses something pure sluggers dont, i.e. the potential to be the best fantasy player.

That said, as you rightly point out, there is some uncertainty with Ellsbury. Will he maintain that elite speed as he hits for more power and ages? He wasnt as successful on the base paths last year, so it’s hard to say. I’m buying his track record over the last three full seasons and thinking 45 steals is entirely likely, especially as I think his power will diminish somewhat, resulting in more opportunities.

Is Prince Fielder a safer pick? Possibly, although he’s going to a difficult park/league. Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votter are pretty steady as well.

I prefer Ellsbury because he gives me something they dont: speed and the chance at being the best player in fantasy. I dont think there’s much chance of those other guys finishing #1 overall and I look at Ellsbury’s underlying stats, scouting reports and career arc and see his 2011 as not altogether abnormal.

Again, apologies for screwing up this conversation, I was entirely talking past you and missing your general point.

So you wanted some “facts”, so I did the hard work of pullin’ out the spreadsheet and giving you some facts that actually supported my theory. But now those facts aren’t good enough? A 5% difference is not that much of a difference? What exactly is the threshold that would impress you? A 50% difference?

If this 5% advantage for power hitters repeating their totals is found in other seasons, does my theory gain more strength or is it all meaningless because it goes against your side of the argument?

Stealing a base is a more physical act than hitting because there is a collision every time you steal a base, whether with the ground, the base or the defender (and often all three).

Do I also need a spreadsheet to prove that pitching is a more physical act than hitting?

We’ll see who ends up correct.