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Happy New Year!  Or as I like to call it, Happy Birthday, Baby January!  We’re in the midst of doing our fantasy baseball sleepers, but I forget one more of the 2017 fantasy baseball rookies.  Not because he’s so good.  I forgot him because… Well, I forgot why I forgot him.  Great start to 17 after 20!  As I’ve previously mentioned on the aforementioned tip, I’m focusing on redraft leagues with these fantasy baseball rookies and if I could have my druthers and knew what druthers were, I’d go with guys that have had at least a taste of the major leagues already.  Enter stage right, J.P. Crawford.  Enter…stage…right…. J.P. Crawford!  Will someone please move the curtains?  Crawford is apparently finding it harder to find the stage as he is finding his power.  Last year, he had 7 HRs across Double and Triple-A in about 472 ABs.  Okay, prolly not ‘about 472 ABs’ prolly exactly 472 ABs, but I added the two levels in my head and might be a little off.  Why is it that player pages add major league players stats together when they’re traded but when they move across levels in the minors they don’t add anything?  I mean, I get it, it’s two different levels, but can’t they list the two levels separate then also have a third line with a combination of the stats?  I am literally the only that cares about this.  Yes, literally.  Okay, so not much power, but what about speed in the minors this year?  12 SBs.  Not sure what level of enthusiasm I’m supposed to show at this point.  Perhaps a lowercase yay with a small sigh?  He did hit around .250 (again, there’s no combo line and I’m not doing the math this time).  Around .250 or as I like to call it, who gives a fudge?  So, why am I even doing a post on Crawford or better, and more seguey… Anyway, what can we expect from J.P. Crawford for 2017 fantasy baseball?

Well, not much, but I’m a lot more enthusiastic about Crawford than his minor league numbers indicate.  In Double-A, he had a 18.1% walk percentage and a 12.7% K rate.  I can’t remember the last time a walk and strikeout rate in Double-A excited me, but that kinda stirs the pudding for a 21-year-old kid.  What is even more impressive, and I’m going to sound a lot more real basebally than fantasy basebally, but his game film.  Doode sparkles.  His video looks like a Major League All-Star.  That stroke of his bat makes me want to…Okay, I’m not finishing that sentence, but I’m excited.  He may have had only 7 HRs on the year, but you can see that stroke of his turning into a 17-22 HR guy.  Which is, I guess, kinda meh, until you remember his plate discipline reads as a guy that can hit .300+.  If he were 24 years old, I’d be less impressed, but he’s a few years away from 24, and 24 is still young!  His speed is there too to translate to a 20-steal guy.  20/20/.300 and likely leadoff hitter for ten years?  Yeah, I can see the enthusiasm for him.  Now, back to our real objective here, 2017 projections for Crawford?  Meh.  The Phils will promote him around June/July if he’s hitting in Triple-A, but I’d put his projections at merely 28/3/16/.261/7 in 220 ABs.

  1. Jason says:
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    Nice write-up Grey. I just acquired JP Crawford in my dynasty “keep forever” league for Grandal. I was badly in need of a SS and I like JP’s long-term value

    I have a question about another trade I’ve got on the table. I’m in a H2H 12-team 10×9 dynasty “keep forever” league. We have 40 man rosters. The categories are:

    R H HR RBI SB BB K AVG OPS TB and IP K/9 K/BB HR W QS WHIP ERA SV+HLD

    My team is on the older side and I’m trying to inject some youth into it but still compete this year

    I’ve received an offer where I trade Cueto/EE for TdFrazier/DDuffy/Conforto

    Is this offer fair or am I getting hosed? Am I selling low on Cueto/EE? Since this is a dynasty league I’m finding it hard to gauge the value properly. Do the deal, ask for more or stand pat?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Jason:

      I’d want more for JC and double E..

      Happy New Year Ante!

      • Tweak says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: Agree with MP here.

        Cueto has been one of the game’s best and most consistent starters since he came up. He’s been overshadowed by flashier arms, but he posted incredible numbers for pitching in Cincy. He’ll be 31 at the season’s start, but is pitching in San Fran (a solid pitcher’s park). He could conceivably have his best season this year.

        EE should rake with the Indians for at least this season. Maybe this offer is close if Cueto’s shoulder shows some stress again or Frazier gets traded to play 1B in Colorado.

        • Big Odio says:
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          @Tweak: his first two seasons were garbage and his third was okay in the era department and bad in the k’s.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jason: Don’t love it, ask for more/different

  2. goodfold2 says:
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    everybody that looks up minor league stats cares about that. the books do it right though (BA, prospectus, ron shander’s forecaster)

    bids are out and almost every hitter (and most pitchers) have been matched. my stanton bid won, with 23.001 mil for 4 years (2nd was 21.85 for 4 so i didn’t overbid much, which is nice). i was slightly off on bids for some others, and myself would’ve won all of these, except i specifically said i ONLY want one of these, since more than 1 would mess up budget pretty well (i’d be left with around 1.5 mil per player for last 8 roster spots). the guy who i barely beat to stanton went 18 mil for 6 YEARS on strasburg (that looks nuts currently)
    – freeman won with 18.56 (mine 20.001)
    – votto won with 16.5 (mine 19)
    – villar won with 14.5 mil (mine 18.001)
    – cargo 1 won with 16.5 (mine 18.001)

    my quintana was hit up for 13 mil for 3 years. we have till midday to match or not (i’d get a comp end of 1st round draft pick if i don’t match). problem of course is i won’t necessarily know whether i get stanton just before or just after i do this. if i match quintana and get stanton (i’d lean i don’t get stanton since almost every hitter has been matched, this particular owner has to pick whether or not he matches stanton and/or price at 16 per for 4 years)
    C d’arnaud
    CI (2) beltre
    MI (2) segura
    OF (3) altherr/rosario
    util (1) drury
    SP davies/quintana/sale/rey lopez (WSOX/urena (optimal about 6 starters)
    RP (6 slots) m.cabrera/n.jones/one of my prospect RP
    i’d have 3.94 per for 10 spots, and be pretty well set up as far as bidding decent money on SP.

    with that budget and stanton up in the air i’d guess still match on quintana (even though 3 years on pitchers seems scarier than hitters)

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: yeah stanton got matched, and due to not allowing only highest bid that was both won and not matched i’m screwed out of getting one of freeman/votto/villar/braun/cano/cargo 1, albeit that my bids were all high enough to win one of them. eh, i’ll have a lot more money for the open FA guys.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @goodfold2: Seems a little steep for Quintana

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Grey: hmm, i had written into budget 12 assuming he’d cost that. i was more worried about the 3 years than the amount. arrieta/price only cost 16, lester and scherzer got 20 in bidding. all 4 of those matched.

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @goodfold2: kershaw was 30 and matched. interesting that nobody is inbetween kershaw’s 30 and scherzer/lester’s 20.

  3. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    Long term who you got Crawford or Swanson?

    BTW go to B-Ref and hit hide partial, they’ll combine the MiLB stats. .250 was right though.

    His .339 SLG ….woof!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz:

      I’d take Swanson.

      If I remember correctly, an ex – pert on this site claimed Crawford is a D first kind of guy who won’t hit much..

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: I think they’re pretty close. Swanson has more power at the moment. The speed is pretty close, Crawford might be faster in a foot race but they both pick their spots. They’re more efficient base stealers than anything else. Big difference is Crawfords OBP, he’s a leadoff guy, Swanson’s more of a 2 hitter.

        Mid-season last year I ranked Swanson 22 and Crawford 32. So they’re close. Right now in an early version of my top 100 Swanson is 3 spots higher.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz:In 3 years, Crawford feels like 12/25/.310 Swanson like 17/20/.275

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            @Grey:
            To me in 3 years its feels like:

            Swanson 21/24/.305

            Crawford 10/20/.300

            Swanson reminds me, a lot, of a young Jeter..He has the bat and glove and those non fantasy stats called intangibles…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, could be on Swanson… 20/20 or 15/15 are relatively close…. I don’t know if the average will be that good, but could be, he’s young…. He definitely will have better defense than Jeter… Thankfully….

    • Tweak says:
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      @Malicious Phenoms: @Ralph Lifshitz: Tough call, especially with Swanson’s success thus far (small sample size acknowledged). I think I still take Crawford though because I like Philly as a hitter’s park better than Atlanta, assuming the new stadium is statistically close to the current one. I also like the offensive profile Philly is building (Hoskins, Cozens, Moniak, Nick Williams?, Alfaro, Franco, etc.) better than Atlanta’s apparently defensively-minded one.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Tweak: Park is true, but I’m not sold on the surrounding cast being better in Philly. None of those guys are Freddie Freeman. The hope is Franco is in that conversation with in a year or two. I also believe in Atlanta’s front office.

        Still big questions as to what Cozens and Williams develop into. To a lesser extent Hoskins and Alfaro. Also don’t forget, Atlanta’s young core of hitters is not too shabby either. Albies, Maitan, Demeritte, Riley, and Acuna is damn good. We’ll see if Alex Jackson can find a spark there too.

        • Tweak says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz: Fair enough. I feel like both teams have large enough pockets to bid on big name free agents (Machado, Harper,etc) when they become available. Their rebuild timing is about right as well.

          I hear you on Cozens, and especially Williams, but I think the same risks apply to Atlanta’s teen prospects (four of the six you mentioned). That’s not to say that I don’t agree that guys like Albies and Maitan are likely to be good.

          Maybe it ends up being that since Atlanta will probably have the better of the two rotations and each team has to face the arms of the Mets and Nats, Atlanta’s bats win by subtraction.

          Assuming they win their everyday SS positions, who ends up with the best SS in the division? Turner / Crawford / Swanson … the Mets have coming too. And Maitan, if he doesn’t get moved to 3B.

          • Tweak says:
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            @Tweak: … the Mets have Rosario coming too.***

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
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              @Tweak: I actually like Rosario better than both.

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Ralph Lifshitz: and isn’t turner staying in CF as of right now?

                • Tweak says:
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                  @Big Odio: I assume the addition of Eaton solidifies CF for the Nats and allows Turner to move back to his more natural SS. Harper can stop attempting CF, so the corner OF positions are locked down too.

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Tweak: Eaton doesn’t have the arm for cf

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Tweak: I forgot they traded Espinoza…makes me wonder when Werth goes on DL does turner move back to outfield and they let difo or someone else play SS

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Tweak: Yeah, Maitan is sort of the Moniak in the equation. Meaning the far off teen with loads of talent. Albies though young is further along than any of the Phillies guys.

            I have little faith that Cozens 2016 is real. Everything screams Reading aided.

            Turner’s the best fantasy SS in the division.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: You know, I was kinda hoping someone would’ve told me how to combine the MiLB stats… Thanks, Ralph! I think Crawford long term

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: Haha no problem, I’m usually scouring minor league stats across three sites 3-4 times a week. Prospector life.

        Yeah, it’s really close. I don’t foresee the high steals totals you do with Crawford, but I could be wrong. I see him as a .280/15/10/.380 (OBP) guy.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That’s boring… I hope he’s more than that.. At least for ex-prospector Mike, too much heartbreak for his Phils already…. No foolsies, I think it’s too early to say how much Crawford’s power develops

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: I agree on that, I see his power ceiling higher than most evaluators. I love his swing as you mentioned, our evals diverge with his speed. I dont think he’s a 25 steal guy.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              That’s fair enough, and you think he’ll be up this June too?

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: It wouldn’t shock me, they’ve been very aggressive with him. Then again the teams lineup needs to warrant it. This sounds awful, but Freddy Galvis gave them a sneaky 20/17 season, and dreadlocks. He’s God awful, and is probably the poster boy for juice balls, but might be useful in the interim.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, you’re right… Useful doesn’t do them any good, but they might not realize that

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: Crawford’s so young I think they delay his arbitration clock a second long as possible.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, could be, guess we’ll see

  4. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Nice write up Grey! In a keep 7 forever, who would be your one reserve round prospect stash (after Moncada)?

    Austin Meadows? Brendan Rogers? Someone else?

    Seems like Meadows is ready to contribute as soon as he’s given the chance / as soon as there’s a Cutch trade or significant OF injury…

    I like the idea of grabbing a Kiermaier/Leonys type as OF5 with Meadows ready to plug in if given the chance.

    Thanks!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:
      I would go Rodgers, he could be in Colorado in 2018. Power like his at SS/2B is hard to find and hitting in Coors..BOOM!

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: thanks! Rogers would also be good Story (who I have) insurance.

        Would you still take Rogers first even if he doesn’t play in 2017? The keep 7 cap makes it tough to keep prospects unless they are moncada level (but it sounds like you really love Rogers, and I don’t doubt the upside given him and Coors).

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Rodgers is in my top 5. I might go Brinson over Meadows.

          Meadows gets hurt a lot, and there’s no guarantee he’s in Pittsburgh this year. I expect Brinson to 100% be in Milwaukee come Mid-June.

          • Old School Brother says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz:

            Brinson is gonna be the shizz

  5. Quimmy says:
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    January Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Quimmy: January Quimmy!

  6. RD says:
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    Happy New Year everyone at Razz!

    Early keeper question:
    Freeman
    Altuve
    Donaldson
    McCutchen
    Bautista
    Polanco
    Cruz
    Trout
    DeGrom
    Arrieta
    Taillon

    Who would you keep for 2017.
    OBP league I can keep 8.
    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @RD: Happy New Year! Not Taillon, Bautista, Polanco — I see it’s OBP, but don’t see a way around losing Bautista

  7. jack florida says:
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    happy new year and thanks for the great info all year round—–keeper questions will follow soon, i am sure

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @jack florida:
      Happy New Year Jack. Hope you are well and have a great 2017!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha… That was me!

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: the blackest jew I know

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That’s a high compliment

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Maybe the highest I can receive

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha… He grabbed him by his butt and shirt and drove him into the ground like a spike… I need someone to do these things for me!

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: what a great accident

  8. Mike

    Mike says:
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    Let’s say you have a friend who isn’t allowed within 300 ft of Maikel Franco…would you recommend JP as someone to watch? As a shortstop I imagine he’d fit comfortably in the back of most vans.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      There’s our resident Phillie creeper! Speaking of creepers, I hear there’s an opening to get in the ground floor of blog writing…

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        ha!

        strenfs…eggzlent speling
        weegnesses…prefekshunist

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You should start with “Hello World”

          • Mike

            Mike says:
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            lol

            My instructor was Mr Langley…and…he…taught me…to sing…a song.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Mr. Langley needs to eat a D! Sorry, my resolution was to say eat a D more

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: this time try to get someone who actually treats it like a creeper and not a buy the hot player column.

    • Test Kitchen says:
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      @Mike: Hey Mike, just wanted to say welcome back! (Sorry if you’ve been back and I just haven’t noticed, I’m just starting to get back in the swing of things…) Really appreciated your contributions to the site, your prospect advice and insight is second to none. Hope all is well!

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        thanks!

  9. Test Kitchen says:
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    Grey,

    Arrita plus which SS is fair value for Synder:

    Story
    Villar
    Lindor

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Arrieta and any of them

      • Test Kitchen says:
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        @Grey: Appreciate it. Ive got all 3 SS and am trying to find a way to upgrade Arrieta because hes probably the only pitcher I’ll keep. My offense is deep. Obviously don’t want to force anything though.

        I take it you think Arrieta and any of them isn’t really close to Synder?

        Looking forward to your ranks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I’d hold

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