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Member that first game J.P. Arencibia had in the big leagues?  He went 4-for-5 with 2 homers.  It was like the second coming of Johnny Bench.  Then he was Johnny Benched for multiple games because the Kays were trying to help Buck inflate his free agent value — or he had nudie pics of Gaston — and Arencibia went 1-for-30 the rest of the season.  With Buck taking his hustle somewhere else for 2011, it should be Arencibia’s job to lose.  Or loose, if lose and loose confuse you.  If Arencibia could hit for more average, he could challenge Wieters, Posey and Carlos Santana for value.  My thought is, he won’t.  So what can we expect for J.P. Arencibia in 2011 fantasy baseball?

In the minors, Arencibia’s OBP was wonky at times.  I don’t think he’s going to come out of the gate unwonky.  With each new level he was promoted to, his K-rate jumped.  2011 will be an adjustment year.  At least for the better part of it.  You know who Arenicbia reminds me of?  Of course you don’t.  I haven’t said it yet.  He reminds me of Napoli.  Arencibia will have strikeouts, a low average and a ton of homers (for a catcher).  Sounds like a “Yes, please and thank you,” to me.  He could be my last round of a draft catcher du jour in March.  What’s the worst that happens?  He goes 0-for-70 in March and you walk into a Kinko’s, photocopy your face and throw darts at yourself.  No!  You pick up someone else.  The best is, he gets 5 homers in April, you Ron Popeil him and end up with 20 homers on the year with an unattractive average.  I gave him the projections of 40/15/55/.240 in the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball.  But that could easily turn into 50/20/65/.255.  That’s the kind of line that looks awfully ‘just okay’ right now, but at catcher you’ll take it out to dinner and hope it kisses you goodnight.

  1. Van Hammersly says:
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    Grey: in a 12-team roto league with 2-year contracts, I am looking to acquire Miggy Cabrera from an owner that has to deal him before the draft or risk dumping Miggy back into the draft pool for nothing. Do you think it is wise for me to offer Hamilton and Posey (both of whom I could keep for ’11 and ’12) for Cabrera? Sound fair? Thanks (as always)!

  2. NewBVick says:
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    Kid could hit 20-30 if the playing time fell his way. But that average is ganna sting and harder than .240 I think. We’re not talking Mendoza line, but I think .230 if capable. Hopefully he can get a full seasons worth of AB’s with that kind of display.

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Van Hammersly: Sounds fair, no great deal.

    @NewBVick: Yeah, he could hit .220, but he’s a flyer, not bad at catcher.

  4. JustMatt says:
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    Grey – I’m in a 12-team league that allows 5 keepers each year. I have the rights to the following guys at the following prices:

    Mauer – $15
    Prado – $1
    Uggla – $13
    Wright – $29
    Pujols – $40
    Lilly – $2
    Tim Hudson – $1

    I know there’s not much frame of reference there but any two you like less than the others?

  5. Swagger Jackers says:
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    Would you rather have him or the catcher on the Rockies?

  6. wilsoniam says:
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    grey, i have miggy and votto in a keeper league…we have a 1b slot and 2 utils, so its not prob…that said…

    would you trade votto for tulo? (i dont have a SS keeper)

  7. JustMatt says:
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    Grey – one more question – this time catcher related. When I typed your catcher rankings into my spreadsheet I had Doumit at 17 and JP at 18. I just looked at your catcher rankings and those are reversed, so either I’m dislexic or you changed your mind after writing JP’s sleeper post.

    My league requires two catchers and I don’t like to spend cash on my second catcher, so I may be taking one from this range. I’ve seen Doumit ranked in the 15-20 range on various sites but no one has really commented on the fact that he’s penciled in as the backup catcher behind Snyder and the Overbay and Diaz signings don’t give him the opportunity for at-bats that he had last year at first and in the outfield. So, how is he a Top 20 catcher if he gets 200 ABs or how do you see him getting more than that?

  8. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: 10tm/keep 7/ 23 man roster (5OF MI&CI 2UT). I’m rolling with Fielder, Longoria, Kemp, J-Upton, Werth, Kershaw, & Wainwright. I have 2 1st round picks. Not sure what I should target first. Best MI available and biggest bat?

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @JustMatt: I change the rankings occasionally. Doumit’s moving down the rankings. He needs ABs is the problem. He could be as low as 20 by March.

  10. Tom Thumb says:
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    Grey,

    What are your thoughts on Kenley Jansen? Would your prefer him or someone like Beachy or Howell for holds?

  11. The Dude says:
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    @Grey: I’m in an OBP league (no AVG), would that increase or decrease J.P.’s value?

  12. camram003 says:
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    Grey,

    For all of your rankings, I know they are based on a 5×5 league but what should we go on as far as maximum innings pitched? I see pitchers values fluctuating based on 1000 inning maximum to 1900 inning maximum. What is your take? Thanks.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @camram003: Lower IP max, higher the SP value.

  14. Tom Thumb says:
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    Grey,

    Didn’t mean to ask so simplistic a question. What do you think about Jansen from watching him pitch? He used to be a catcher, correct? Do you think he hos gotten by on deception or his stuff is for real? I know he can hit 99 on the gun…

  15. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    I love the Ron Popeil line for catchers. Believe it or not, I was Ron Popeil for Halloween 2-3 years ago haha. One of my buddies threw out an idea for a few of us to be TV pitchmen. I volunteered for Popeil and spent $4 on the whole costume. Other guys backed out of the pitchmen idea but I had already invested that large sum of money so I stuck with it. 99% of the people I encountered had no idea who I was supposed to be but the few that did thought it was kinda cool. If I had to do it all over again, I wouldn’t change a thing!

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom Thumb: 99 MPH seems pretty for real.

    @Buddo Chezuski: That’s awesome! Yeah, the best costumes are the ones only 10% of the population knows.

  17. camram003 says:
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    @Grey: but what innings limit were your top 100 rankings based off of?

  18. Ben says:
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    Love the site grey. I (partially) owe my championship last year to your excellent advise. Could you evaluate a Yahoo 12 team h2h mock I did the other day?

    1. David Wright (NYM – 3B)
    2. Prince Fielder (Mil – 1B)
    3. Andrew McCutchen (Pit – OF)
    4. Brandon Phillips (Cin – 2B)
    5. Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
    6. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    7. Francisco Liriano (Min – SP)
    8. Chris Young (Ari – OF)
    9. Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
    10. Ian Desmond (Was – SS)
    11. Andrew Bailey (Oak – RP)
    12. Matt Garza (ChC – SP)
    13. Jorge Posada (NYY – C)
    14. Adam Lind (Tor – 1B,OF)
    15. Hiroki Kuroda (LAD – SP)
    16. C.J. Wilson (Tex – SP)
    17. Matt Capps (Min – RP)
    18. Juan Pierre (CWS – OF)
    19. Edwin Jackson (CWS – SP)
    20. Ian Kennedy (Ari – SP)
    21. James Shields (TB – SP)
    22. James McDonald (Pit – SP)
    23. Mike Minor (Atl – SP)

  19. ThePensive says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Thanks for keeping the site up and relevant even through the dead of winter. It’s like the little blades of grass poking up through the snow reminding us all that spring is on the way, if the blades of grass were also somehow dropping little spores of knowledge (What’s that? Grass doesn’t drop spores? Stop ruining my analogy).

    In a 8×8 (Hits, BB’s, K’s for hitters, Holds, Blown Saves, QS for pitchers) H2H league where I have too many keepers to choose from (I can keep 10, and I have 14 players in your top 100, so I’d like to trade quantity for quality), is it worth it to me to try to deal A-Rod/Ichiro/Price for Longoria/Lester?

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @camram003: 180 games started…

    @Ben: Looks like a rock solid mock. One of the better ones I’ve seen. Only issue will be average but since it’s H2H it’s not much of an issue.

    @ThePensive: No problem, thanks for the kind words! I’d take Longoria’s side there.

  21. Stephen says:
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    @ThePensive: re:Spores: Depends on what kind of grass you’re talking about.

  22. Waldo says:
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    Two spots have opened up in RCL 17. Email me at mayhewfan at gmail.com if you want in!

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Waldo: Keep the league sign up talk in the league sign up post, thanks.

  24. Wilsonian says:
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    In a league with W, L, SV, Ks, ERA, WHIP, Ks/9 which 2 RPs would you prefer out of these guys:

    League, Soriano, Dotel, Hensley, Motte, Kuo, Fuentes?

  25. Killer Joe says:
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    Grey, I need some advice on keepers for this season. I’m in a 14 team H2H league, and we can keep three players. These are my best players:

    Hunter Pence
    Brandon Phillips
    Mark Teixiera
    Zack Greinke
    John Lester
    Francisco Liriano

    The rest of them are pretty much all scrubs or just really old, so I left them off. I also have Strasburg (we can keep players forever) but I don’t know if it’s worth hanging on to him for a year of nothing. I’m thinking Tex, Lester, and either Phillips or Liriano. Suggestions?

  26. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: thanks man. Any reason not League? I was leaning him and Soriano with the injury to Aardsma and the possibility League may close for at least the first month of the season.

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: Cause saves are the only category that he’s better than those other two.

  28. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: valid point…thanks man, as usual. I needed the saves a little bit with only Kimbrel and Hanrahan on my roster, so I went with League (before you responded). I’ll look to try to get Soriano or Kuo with my next pick.

  29. Steve says:
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    @Grey: For real?

  30. mr baseball says:
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    I once dated an unattractive average

  31. patsox834 says:
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    Grey, I’m likin’ all of the love you’re showing for the Jays, haha – Morrow, Lind, Hill, Arencibia…can’t forget about Romero or Snider, either. Although then there’s Jose Bautista, but eh. He’s clearly the flukiest fluke that ever fluked in the whole fluke of flukes. I’m not sure what I just said, either….

  32. Leyland's Smokes says:
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    Grey-

    I saw a question on the top 100 post that I was interested in that I believe was misinterpreted.

    With all the top notch 1b – what are your thoughts on going with 2 1bs with the first couple picks grabbing some combo of A-Gon, Tex, Howard, or Prince? Are two potential 40HR guys worth sacrificing for a later reach in a shallow position?

    Thanks – Great site

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Leyland’s Smokes: I don’t think you should take two 1B back to back. Thanks for the kind words!

  34. Elijah says:
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    @Grey:

    I am interesting tho maybe in 2 1B in the top 5. Seems to me you never have too many 30+ HR guys and a good chunk are at 1B? Particularly in my 4 OF league.

  35. Bill Lumbergh says:
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    @Grey:
    Preparing for my draft in a 16 team H2H dynasty league. I’ve got the 16th pick in the snake draft. Normally I’d be happy to have that draft slot for the back-to-back picks, but my the only other Razzballer in the league (who is probably going to read this post) landed the 15th pick. I’m concerned about him poaching my draft targets (especially in the later rounds) and have found two owners (non-Razzballers) that are willing to trade draft positions (swap positions for all 20+ rounds).

    Should I swap for the guy picking 10th, the guy picking 12th, or stand pat at 16 and risk having my friend (@ #15) mess with my game plan?

    Thanks for the perspective?

  36. Jon N. says:
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    I would love to join another one of your leagues this year, it was fun last year.

    Hopefully space is still available.

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