Comments on: It All AVGs Out

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 16:35:09 +0000

@JoeC, If I were a Samurai, I’d have committed Seppuku…yes I meant divisive *blushes*

By: JoeC

JoeC — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 16:27:57 +0000

“seemingly the most derisive topic since we had to choose a side on ‘great taste’ or ‘less filling’ for Miller Lite”

Derisive. I do not think that word means what you think it does!

Did you mean “divisive”?

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 15:36:15 +0000

@My My MY Kuroda, No Prob. Good luck!

By: My My MY Kuroda

My My MY Kuroda — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 15:23:48 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, Right – would need to drop a player to pick him up. I usually punt speed and hate that I have Crisp on my team right now. Will look to see who had him last year. Thanks,

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 14:31:55 +0000

@chata, Understandable concern to an extent. I wrote this when Giancarlo was just having a bit of a knee issue and it wasn’t looking as bad as it does now. LoMo is looking more and more like a ‘dings and bruises’ guy every day. Upton is back this weekend so should come close. I would’ve preferred Youk but was trying to prove a point by taking the lowest average between my two 3B that I liked (Pablo the other). I think Werth & Wells will be fine.

In the end, as I’m sure you know, it’s about the moves you make over the season that make your team. I just wanted to provide an exercise that reminds people to not overrate average when reviewing their players.

By: chata

chata — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 09:03:07 +0000

my concern , for this team , is the possible lack of playing time
for a bunch of your players .
the entire bottom half of your team , starting with your 3rd basemen ,
might not reach your AB projections .

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 05:23:18 +0000

@jimbo, To be fair, my deep league posts had Pablo as my #1 3B and I would’ve taken any of the 5 top 1Bs. I took Fielder because he had the lowest expected average. Uggla vs Phillips fell into the same boat. My write up was more to keep people mindful that being too focused on average makes you miss out on far more important counting stats.

Markakis has had a nice start. If he can return to 2008 form, you’ve got a great draft grab.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 05:17:20 +0000

@Eric, I’d drop LaRoche for Davis.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 05:16:45 +0000

@Mp, It may be. Definitely not a money shot right now.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 05:16:11 +0000

@My My My My Kuroda, Nice Knacks reference

So does that mean you’d have to drop someone to pick up Reimold? I like him and would take him over Crisp if speed isn’t a need. That said, I might test the market for Crisp before you turn him loose.

By: jimbo

jimbo — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 04:33:12 +0000

In a ‘moneyball’ sense I did draft a team this year that should dominate in avg. Votto, pablo, butler for example. I get the mantra ‘don’t be avg chasing avg’…but my strategy was to field a team strong across the board.

While some teams might take a prado later in the draft to ‘offset’ their stanton/reynolds duo, I opted for pablo/markakis/k johnson at a far cheaper cost.

Considering rbi and runs, I like the balance my guys offer at a relative discount. Plus, I’m sick of trying to make up avg later in the season!

By: Eric

Eric — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 04:24:59 +0000

Freddie Freeman and Ike davis have been dropped in my league. Which one should i pick up? Would drop either Adam LaRoche or Adam Lind

By: Mp

Mp — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 03:55:41 +0000

Tomorrows title should be “Is Lincecum Shot?”

By: My My My My Kuroda

My My My My Kuroda — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 03:54:12 +0000

Any thoughts on which of these two OF to roster in a 16 team H2H as a utility/fill-in for the light hitting COCO Crisp. Jesus Montero is my UTIL until he qualifies at Catcher. I have Lucas Duda right now, but like the tear that Reimold is on (2-3 HR, 2R, 2RBI off the bench Monday).

Thanks

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 01:21:01 +0000

@princerudynasim, Oh and hey

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 01:20:40 +0000

@princerudynasim, Too early. Lombardozzi profiles well as a utility infielder, but not much more. Espinosa is pretty streaky so him sitting and getting his head on straight is gonna happen from time to time.

By: princerudynasim

princerudynasim — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 01:15:14 +0000

what up Bones…..should Espinosa owner be worried about Lombardozzi or is it too early?

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:29:09 +0000

@Sean, Keep in mind how much a ‘balanced’ team relies upon for it to work out. Saying I’m taking an average risk simply feeds more into my point: worrying too much about average puts you at risk to miss out on the four other categories. I’m trying to defuse the notion that if a guy hits .300, he’s what you need on your team every time you draft. It sticks you with the infield I mentioned and doesn’t leave you competitive.

And another note: I take full responsibility for the risk I am taking. I drink responsibly.

By: Tony

Tony — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:25:23 +0000

ONC or GREY if you see this i just put up a fresh votto trade deal in the forums, if you could take a peek, i appreciate it.

By: Sean

Sean — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:13:38 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, What do you think is more likely, that something will happen to Castro (the single point of failure), or that someone like Uggla or Upton will suddenly jump 20 batting average points? I know what my guess would be. And yes that doesn’t mean you should have 6 empty batting averages on your team either… but any team should have more balance. Having a huge risk in a category and then saying “well anything could happen” is not taking responsibility for having taken that risk.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:10:20 +0000

@Jeff, depends on needs but I still think Grey’s line on both can apply:

http://razzball.com/top-80-outfielders-for-2012-fantasy-baseball/

http://razzball.com/top-40-outfielders-for-2012-fantasy-baseball/

I’d be a bit more patient in a 16 team. Too early to turn either loose in my opinion.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:05:15 +0000

@steve b, I’ll put it this way: you won’t win your league because you drafted Michael Young, Howie Kendrick, Billy Butler and Starlin Castro as your infield. In fact, I’d say you have a strong shot at losing because of it since the power/counting stats won’t be there. This is not a combination that gets you more points than the next guy but it’s a high average team. That’s why I say don’t let your team become average trying to avoid having a bad one.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 23:56:02 +0000

Thoughts on Rios. 16 team league. We start 4 OF, plus one bench spot and only have 4 bench spots.

My “5th OF’s” which I’m starting at the utility spot are Rios and Presley. I’m debating dropping Rios for some streaming starters and possible closers.

should I go for it and ride Presley or be patient with him? What kind of numbers do you expect from him this year?

By: steve b

steve b — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 23:43:28 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups,
Well theres a bunch of different ways to win.Couldnt you say the same for every stat or am I missing something here.To me it seems like your saying that you dont have to have the best average to win your league.But you dont need to have the most saves to win your league either.You just need to have more points than the second place team in any combination

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 23:06:29 +0000

@Sean, I think more the point I’m trying to make is, it’s a cat you shouldn’t be dependent on. Average can fluctuate plenty. Maybe he hits .280 or .290, but maybe someone else hits .280 or .290 that was expected to hit .260.

Now if I had Billy Butler, Castro, Howie Kendrick and Michael Young around the horn, we’d be talking about how much of the other cats I’d be missing out on. I’m trying to get people to not put too much emphasis on a category that is just that: one category.

By: Sean

Sean — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 23:02:27 +0000

You are heavily dependent on Castro. He regresses or gets hurt, you’ve blown the cat.

By: VinWins

VinWins — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 22:45:36 +0000

@Blue, Ha. So there’s no such thing as ratios, then. OK.

By: Blue

Blue — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 22:27:41 +0000

Average is a counting stat–hits and ABs, neither of which go down.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 22:01:52 +0000

@A Hill O’ Beans, Upside will forever be Belt. Unfortunately, someone needs to go upside Bochy’s gigantic head to be worth it. Murphy for playing time, Belt for dreamy upside time.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 22:01:10 +0000

@T.J., If those are your worst, I’d stay put. STL’s coaches are top notch with their staff and Jeff’s K:BB splits have me believing enough to keep onto him. I’d let them play their way out of your lineup and keep your eye on the horizon for guys like Bauer, Shelby Miller, and maybe Skaggs if he comes up. Good arms to watch while the guys you have prove it or disprove it.