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With great pride and bland post titling, I’d like to announce a Beta release of our fantasy baseball in-season player rater as well as two charts that highlight the differences between pitcher FIP vs. ERA and batter BABIP vs. AVG.

The player rater work is an adaptation of the Point Shares methodology I’ve used the last couple of years for pre-season and post-season player estimates.  Here is a link to a favorable test I did earlier this year vs. ESPN’s player rater methodology.  After some trial and error plus assistance from a variety of folks (Eric K at my favorite fantasy baseball escort service – EliteFantasyPlayers.com - and Doug at Dougstats.com among others), we now have a fairly automated system for updating in-season player rankings on a daily basis.

The Razzball Player rater is at –> Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and covers the following 5×5 league formats:

  • ESPN Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
  • Yahoo! Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
  • AL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team
  • NL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team

The table is ranked based on a players’ projected Point Shares (a player’s value in standings points vs. the average player with some factoring in of position).  Dollar estimates are provided both for in-season as well as comparisons vs. pre-season estimates.  Take the dollar estimates with a grain of salt for now – they should become more stable as the season goes on.  You can filter by position (P for all pitchers, -P for all hitters) and sort by any of the columns (1 click ascending, two clicks descending).

There are two pages focused on popular hitter/pitcher stats outside of 5×5 (popularity based on our pre-season poll results).  These tables are filterable/sortable as well.

  • Hitting – OBP, SLG, OPS, Hits, Total Bases
  • Pitching – Quality Starts, Holds, Losses

Lastly, there are two tables that highlight differences between pitcher FIP vs. ERA and hitter BABIP vs AVG.

  • The pitcher table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ pitchers – i.e. pitchers ranked in descending order based on the difference between their FIP and their ERA.  For those wondering why I chose FIP vs. xFIP, I do not have access to the league-average fly ball to home run ratio nor pitcher HR:FB ratio.  You may also find that my FIP estimates are slightly off from other sources – this is mainly because I cannot currently separate out intentional from non-intentional walks but it can also be due to how the ‘constant’ is applied to bring the league average FIP in the 3.20 range.
  • The hitter table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ hitters - i.e. hitters ranked in descending order based on the difference between their current AVG and their expected AVG.  A hitter’s expected AVG is calculated by applying a hitter’s 3-year BABIP to their in-season performance.  3-year BABIP was used as this stat does vary per hitter based on various factors (line drive rate, their speed, GB to FB ratio, etc.) but a hitter’s BABIP tends to be steady in the long run.  Hitters with less than 100 AB in the previous 3 years are given the league average BABIP of .300.

I’ll do my best to keep these tables updated daily (generally by 10 AM EST).  The last column of each chart reflects the last games included so it will be transparent when it has not been updated for a couple days.  While I will do my best to keep on top of the moving pieces, please do not hesitate to provide the following information in the comments section of Grey and/or my posts:

  • Any missing players from the tables (for now, I’m including any hitter/pitcher with 1+ AB or 0.1+ IP.  That minimum threshold will likely increase as the year goes on.
  • Any position eligibility changes based on 10 game in-season eligibility (I know Yahoo! is 5 games but prefer to make one change across both).  For hitters where position eligibility seems imminent (e.g., Jesus Montero at catcher), I include the additional position and add an asterisk at the end of it.
  • Any wonky data or functionality

Other potential FAQ:

  • Will you ever have a ‘rest of season’ player rater?
    • Maybe.  Would be dependent on a respected projection source providing an uploadable file that is 1) updated on a regular basis, 2) accounts for expected playing time, and 3) is free.
  • Will you create a dynamic player rater to reflect any conceivable league format?
    • Not planning on it.
  • Was your wife turned on by this accomplishment?
    • Nope.  She prefers it when I go Don Draper and fix shit around the house in a white t-shirt.
  1. wilsoniam says:
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    me wilsonian.
    me no understand this.

    me in 8 team league.

    oooga oooga.

    Should I pick up reimold or should I pick up duda?
    should i take a walk today or should i go to the park?
    what about dinner? should i have chicken or vegetables?

    • @wilsoniam, 8 team mixed league…well, just use 10 team. not that far off. i like Reimold slightly more than Duda. walk in the park. chicken and vegetables.

      • wilsoniam says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, thank you!

  2. anon says:
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    This is awesome. Thanks for this and nice job. the FIP/ERA thing is awesome. Question tho – why FIP and not xFIP?

    • @anon, It’s in the post “…those wondering why I chose FIP vs. xFIP, I do not have access to the league-average fly ball to home run ratio nor pitcher HR:FB ratio. “

  3. royce! says:
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    Yeah, this is awesome, thanks Rudy! Are you planning to expand the amount of players in the BABIP v. AVG table? I’d like to know who has been unlucky, but it seems to only show who has been lucky.

    • @royce!, Fixed. Good catch.

      • royce! says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Thanks! I noticed it because I couldn’t find any of my players…wah waaaaah.

        • Hawk says:
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          @royce!,

          We must own the same players. Wah wah waaaaaahhh….

  4. Gavin says:
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    4th OF: Cody Ross, Presley or Rasmus? (Rasmus has been pissing me off for three years now).

    • @Gavin, I’d still take Rasmus. Feel your pain, though.

    • royce! says:
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      @Gavin, I’m still bullish on Rasmus- he appears to be the victim of bad BABIP luck- with a 29% line drive rate, he should have a much higher AVG.

  5. dingbat says:
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    This is a really awesome tool, but I think the BABIP sheet is currently buggy. I just looked at Matt Kemp, but the sheet shows his current AVG as .333 when it should be .455. Also, if you use .340 as his expected BABIP, then he should have ~10 non-homer hits + 6 homers for 16 total hits, good for an expected average of .372, rather than .228. Is the sheet possibly not counting home runs as hits?

    • MattTruss223 says:
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      @dingbat, Agreed, Krispie’s avg is shown as .278 when it’s .410 also.

    • @dingbat, Good catch. Fixed.

  6. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    This is truly a great addition to Razzball! Thanks!

    Evan Longoria shows as a SS in the position sort.

    • @VinWins, Thanks. Should be fixed in a little bit.

  7. Amsterdam says:
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    In an NL-only keeper league what side would you prefer?

    Pastornicky $5, Nicasio $2, H.Bailey $2

    OR

    Oscar Taveras (rookie contract, $5), Bedard $4, Clippard $3, Lombardozzi $5

    ?

    Thanks!

  8. JTin says:
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    I’ve tried my hand at in-season projections; what do you think of this methodology?

    1) Start with full-season projections from (Razzball, naturally), calculated on a per/AB & per/IP basis
    2) Take current season actual stats on a per/AB & per/IP basis & project full season stats (Small Sample Size, but will stabilize as season progresses)
    3) Weight the two projections by % of season gone by (i.e., real stats start out counting for 0% of the projections, by season’s end they are 100%, at All-Star break we’re taking a 50% sample of in-season production & weighting it 50% with how we thought the player would perform pre-season)
    4) Since all this is on an AB/IP basis, then you just calculate rest-of-season projected AB/IP to get the totals. My back-of-envelope projection for this is to take pre-season expected AB/IP and subtract current-season actual AB/IP to find the difference, adjusting for obvious Injury and/or PT changes.

    Also, this was built on the “War Room” framework, which enables me to calculate Roto standings in my league projected for rest of season – I can identify weak/strong spots much more easily, find complimentary trade partners, etc.

    Cons: A lot of maintenance – I’m only updating on a weekly basis because i have to pull in full-season stats, and adjust AB/IP projections. Also have to manually adjust for role changes – specifically new closers need to have their Saves per IP number adjusted dramatically.

    Any input on the statistical method behind this? Anything I’m missing in my calculations?

    • @JTin, Most projection systems weight previous season data on a sliding scale so that the most recent year is worth more than the year before, etc. I think the biggest flaw in your approach is that it doesn’t take any learning from the most recent year. I haven’t done the test to see what information – if any – is gleaned within the year.

      • JTin says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, If the original projection system I’m using already accounts for previous years (weights each year), shouldn’t that cover it?
        My stats are definitely a quick & dirty approach – I guess really I’m not doing projections myself at all, not weighting years, etc. I’m taking someone else’s pre-season projection work and modifying it as the season goes along by actual results. More of a roster-management/production-goal-tracking device than anything.

        • @JTin, It’s that you’re valuing this year’s performance as meaningless that’s the issue. My gut says the value of your output isn’t worth the time/energy to create it. But my gut is hungry so might just be bitter.

          • JTin says:
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            @Rudy Gamble, this year’s stats aren’t meaningless, just weighted very lightly at the start of the year. At what sample size would you place more weight on in-year stats as a predictor of future performance? Currently, my formula is set on a 1-1 ratio: % of season gone by = % of projection based on current season stats. How would your curve differ?

            • @JTin, i don’t know the right weight. but the current season data should inform the rest of season projection in some way. i’m hoping steamer takes this on soon

  9. MattTruss223 says:
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    This is a freaking sweet new toy, I feel like a kid on Christmas. Will be especially helpful as the season goes along. I heart Razzball. Thanks gentlemen!

    • @MattTruss223, You’re welcome!

  10. Tchaikovsky08 says:
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    Love this, thanks. I noticed Asdrubal Cabrera’s average is outdated. Just an FYI

    • @Tchaikovsky08, That might’ve been part of an AVG issue with the BABIP chart that’s now been fixed.

  11. Nonstoptalk says:
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    @Rudy Who do you like more Zito or Peavy?

  12. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    Nice work! Looking forward to opening this everyday and saying, “Whaddup, Player Rater?”

    Speaking of nothing: Melancon just got sent to AAA, after allowing 11 runs and five homers over just two innings.

    So do we still think he’s in line for saves in Boston? Is it safe to drop him?

    • @Baron Von Vulturewins, Drop Melancon. I don’t see him getting saves this year outside of AAA.

  13. JavierBC says:
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    I am certainly turned on.

  14. Holmes says:
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    I read a Brad Evans (of yahoo) article recently that was saying to sell on Stanton at this point, for he is projecting he only hits 20-25 hrs this year with the nagging injuries, any truth to this? Thanks.

    • @Holmes, I think if we all realized how hard it would be to hit HRs in Miami, he’d have gone lower in all drafts. That plus the knee injury. If you can get 2nd to 3rd round value for him, I’d take it. But I wouldn’t sell him for any cheaper than that.

  15. FYI, the Player Rater will next be updated on Saturday as I’ll be away from home for the rest of the week…

  16. jfmoon says:
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    great work rudy/grey!

    also – great job on the podcasts

  17. Ken Plane says:
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    Which side would you want in this trade, 5×5, 10 team roto, B Phillips and G Stanton for Cano and David Murphy

    • Hawk says:
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      @Ken Plane,

      For this year, I’d take the Cano side. If it’s a keeper league I’d take Stanton side.

  18. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    Rudy, this is fantastic!

    The 12 tm AL only format only shows 75 players

    • @The Talented Mr. Dope Man, thx. the al 12 team isn’t working right. willbe fixed on saturday

    • @The Talented Mr. Dope Man, Fixed!

  19. AbNormal says:
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    Thanks for the data Rudy. I recently had undertaken a similar attempt myself to compile and follow these and similar pitching statistics throughout the year as a way to evaluate pitching on the fly. I’m currently just attempting to follow each SP after their weekly starts, and RP/MRs every 10-15 IP, looking at their ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and BAbip (compared against their career BAbip). I feel this has been useful for me, especially very early on in the season with a smaller sample size, as it’s easy to spot outliers and look at players struggling and to make the judgement as to whether they are likely to approach career norms (or at least regress towards the mean).

    • @AbNormal, sorry i blew your advantage :)

  20. trick dad says:
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    better UTIL option this year: boesch or jd martinez?
    thanks!

  21. Giacomo says:
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    Rudy,
    Would you trade Hanley, Nelson Cruz and Josh Johnson for Andrus, McCutchen and Haren? I need steals, but I am afraid I might be giving up too much power. 12 team H2H OBP league.

    • @Giacomo, no way. too much

  22. bean says:
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    In a bubble………….Which side of this trade?

    Lincecum, Starlin Castro & CarGo FOR Buehrle, Stanton and Weeks

    (12-Team Roto NL Only)

    • Curse of the Goat says:
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      @bean, Lincecum, Castro and CarGo side EASILY wins that trade.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Curse of the Goat, In every area…absurdly imbalanced trade. That is veto worthy imo.

        • Curse of the Goat says:
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          @TheNewGuy, Totally agree. I can’t believe the question about which side is better has even been asked.

    • A Hill O' Beans says:
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      @bean, Not even close, I mean, usually each side of the trade should at least win a part of the deal.

      CarGo > Stanton
      Lincecum >>> Buehrle
      Castro >> Weeks (and it doesn’t even matter which Weeks it is)

  23. Charles says:
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    Does anyone know whether an analysis has been performed to show that xFIP is a reliable indicator of future ERA? And conversely, that BABIP is a reliable indicator of future AVG? I would love to see a graph of a player’s (or basket of players) xFIP and ERA across an entire season. The two metrics should converge, right?

    • @Charles, i’m sure it’s out there but i haven’t seen anything like this recently

  24. Curse of the Goat says:
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    I’m definitely using this tool to win my league for the 3rd year in a row. Thanks for the legwork Rudy!

    Quick question, I’m in need of OBP and Steals in my 13-team keeper league. Who do you like more this year from the perspective of their contributions to those two stats, Alex Presley or Dexter Fowler?

    Thanks!

    • @Curse of the Goat, presley

  25. crush says:
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    12 team, 5 x 5 plus errors (dont ask) – how do you rank: wilson ramos, lucroy, doumit, hundley, thole? thanks.

    • Curse of the Goat says:
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      @crush, I’d rank them Ramos, Lucroy, Thole, Doumit, Hundley

  26. jabroni says:
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    In a points league, any of these players so ownable that it’s offensive that they’re sitting on the waiver wire? (Have some guys like Arencibia, Trumbo and Brantley that need to be cut for them):

    J. Smoak
    L. Scott
    A. Presley
    T. Helton
    P. Bourjos
    I. Stewart
    D. Viciedo
    A. Rios
    A. Huff
    Or at catcher: J. Buck/W. Ramos/N. Hundley???

    Thanks for help.

  27. TheNewGuy says:
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    Awesome, just awesome.

    Not go the time to fully try it out right not but it looks like it’ll be great use during the season, this really is the best fantasy site out there.

    Great job guys, must take a hell of a lot of updating but its sure worth it.

  28. Nonstoptalk says:
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    Is it time to worry about Daniel Hudson yet? He’s pitching a lot better today but still walking a bunch and not striking anybody out.

    • Nonstoptalk says:
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      I think he heard me. 2 Ks and no BB last two innings. Although he did hive up a bomb to Pedro Alvarez of all people.

  29. BigWillie says:
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    I think I just creamed my jeans.

    For the first time ever I recommended your site to a friend who is new to fantasy baseball.

    The lack of recommendations in the past is the answer to the following SAT-style question:

    Gollum:The Ring
    Me:________ (hint: starts with “Razz” and ends with “ball”)

    You guys are too good to share.

    Nice work as usual.

    • prezii says:
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      @BigWillie, lol agreeddd. Its like a little crack shack in the woodworks you can just go and tweek out with no one knowing… Too bad i dont smoke crack but i can imagine the similarities..

  30. Arod's Frost says:
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    Thoughts on dropping Aybar for Cozart?

  31. jrock says:
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    Quick question!

    I dont have many steal options other than Reyes. Would you drop Tabata or Raburn for Rasmus? I kinda want to wait Raburn out… Thoughts?

    • Hawk says:
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      @jrock,

      If you are looking for steals, keep Tabata. Raburn and Rasmus are similar in their annual disappointment. Either is as likely as the other to have a good season.

  32. Chris says:
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    I’ve been offered Dan Uggla for my Felix Hernandez.

    RCL 12 team 5×5

    C Ramon Hernandez / Jesus Montero when he’s eligible
    1B Prince Fielder
    2B Dustin Ackley
    3B Brett Lawrie
    SS Derek Jeter
    MI Ruben Tejada
    CI Michael Young
    OF Giancarlo Stanton
    OF BJ Upton (DL)
    OF Torii Hunter
    OF Nick Markakis
    OF Austin Jackson
    UT Logan Morrison
    BN Adam Lind
    SP Felix Hernandez
    SP Zach Greinke
    SP Tommy Hanson
    SP Johan Santana
    SP Colby Lewis
    SP Trevor Cahill
    SP Matt Harrison
    RP Jonathon Papelbon
    RP Heath Bell
    RP Fernando Rodney
    RP Tyler Clippard

    Can I handle losing Felix for the needed upgrade at 2B?

  33. herschel says:
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    Pitt with back to back save ops just as hanrahan goes gimpy. Vent.

    • artie says:
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      @herschel, Tell me about it!! And a dude hitting .045 ruins the win for Hudson (i own him too)

  34. Zobmie says:
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    Great stuff. A useful tool that I’ll check in with often. I’d love to see one metric added for pitchers though. LOB% It’s just another useful tool to see how lucky a pitcher has been, and might cease to be in future.

    • @Zobmie, yup – but don’t have access to that stat

  35. Hawk says:
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    Rudy

    This is fantastic. I have always done the BABIP / current average comparison to help find in-season guys who have been unlucky and it’s normally a pain the ass. This makes my life MUCH easier!

    Thank you.

  36. Sam says:
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    Marcum/Motte for Cuddyer .. who wins the trade?

    • Tony says:
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      @Sam, depends what you need, i think its fairly even.

      • Sam says:
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        @Tony,

        I’m the one targeting Cuddyer. I have surplus of SPs. I can trade Ian Kennedy as well. Does Kennedy for Cuddyer have a better chance than the Marcum/Motte one?

        Thanks!

  37. Lincewhat? says:
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    I got offered Heyward (3 year $15) and Gio Gonzalez (1 years $16)

    for Lincecum (1 year $25). Should I bite the bullet and do it? Or should I not buy into the fear?

    • @Lincewhat?, i would do it

  38. EK says:
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    S Casilla or H. Rodriguez??

  39. Turk Wendell says:
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    Guys, this is great. I can’t wait to dork out with this.

  40. Tom Thumb says:
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    Send Giancarlo Stanton, Mia RF from OF to the Outfield
    Send Brandon Morrow, Tor SP from Bench to the Outfield
    Send Lance Lynn, StL RP from Bench to the Outfield

    Receive Justin Upton, Ari RF from the Outfield to Bench
    Receive Yu Darvish, Tex SP from the Outfield to Bench
    Receive Rick Porcello, Det SP from the Outfield to Bench

    I am the side receiving Upton obviously. Thoughts anyone? Grey? Rudy?

    • Tom Thumb says:
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      @Tom Thumb, OBP instead of AVG and XBH btw

      • Tom Thumb says:
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        @Tom Thumb, Concerned with Jupton’s Thumbton

    • @Tom Thumb, it’s about even. prefer upton side slightly b/c stanton’s knee plus crayola canyon seems worse than a jammed thumb

  41. Jay says:
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    I was just offered Carlos Beltran, Tixiera, and CJ Wilson for Albert Pujols. Should I trade Albert already or wait it out to see if his game improves??

    MY TEAM:
    Avila J. Weaver
    Pujols Billingsley
    Pedroia J. Shields
    Freese D. Price
    J. Hamilton
    Cuddyer
    McCutchen
    Cozart
    D. Gordon
    T. Hunter
    R. Zimmerman

  42. prezii says:
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    Just chump dumped(i think? Lol) kuroda and rick romero for lincecum. Thoughts? I like it but thats based on me thinkin the freak turns it around.

  43. BigWillie says:
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    @prezii, I really didn’t want to tell him, I soooooo wanted to keep my yap shut, but I figured it will take him at least one season to figure out all the Razzball terminology and shit, plus I figure I owe The ‘Stache and the ‘Fro a virgin mind not corrupted by the unimaginative garbage you see on 90% of the sites out there.

    • prezii says:
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      @BigWillie, yeah they deserve it. And one of the BEST things about it is that you dont have a bunch of “im so cool” kids postin pointless nonsense. Its good to come to a friendly knowledgable site where everyone isnt doggin every writer. There isnt the “omgg i should get paid for this stuff you suck” posts on every line. Granted… The writers on yahoo are pretty wack sometimes. Sorry but its the truthh, truth!

  44. exactly says:
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    Hey Rudy, i know it’s early in the season, but would you trade lester for lincecum? Both have faltered, who do you like to have the better year?

  45. Rags says:
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    Lol. Aroldis Chapman’s FIP is -0.8, but he’s stuck with merely a zero ERA. Poor unlucky guy…

  46. nick m. says:
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    Have 2 moves left for the week in a points league. Please pick the top 2 streaming options left this week. Thanks!
    Samardzija (@MIA)
    Alvarez (vs. TB)
    Harrison (@Det)
    Duffy (vs. Toronto)
    Gee (vs. SF)
    Vogelsong (@NYM)
    Noesi (vs. CWS)
    Niemann vs. Minn)
    Hochevar (vs. TOR)

  47. Muchacho says:
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    My wife also like me doing the Don Draper white t-shirt handyman thing. She takes it one step further though and makes me smoke full strength Malboros while fixing shit, which plays havoc with my asthma :(

    • @Muchacho, Ha. I just ask that my wife not call me by my real name, Dick.

  48. Chris says:
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    This is HUGE!! Big fan of the new player rater! Thanks for making this available.

Comments are closed.