With great pride and bland post titling, I’d like to announce a Beta release of our fantasy baseball in-season player rater as well as two charts that highlight the differences between pitcher FIP vs. ERA and batter BABIP vs. AVG.
The player rater work is an adaptation of the Point Shares methodology I’ve used the last couple of years for pre-season and post-season player estimates. Here is a link to a favorable test I did earlier this year vs. ESPN’s player rater methodology. After some trial and error plus assistance from a variety of folks (Eric K at my favorite fantasy baseball escort service – EliteFantasyPlayers.com - and Doug at Dougstats.com among others), we now have a fairly automated system for updating in-season player rankings on a daily basis.
The Razzball Player rater is at –> Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and covers the following 5×5 league formats:
- ESPN Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
- Yahoo! Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
- AL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team
- NL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team
The table is ranked based on a players’ projected Point Shares (a player’s value in standings points vs. the average player with some factoring in of position). Dollar estimates are provided both for in-season as well as comparisons vs. pre-season estimates. Take the dollar estimates with a grain of salt for now – they should become more stable as the season goes on. You can filter by position (P for all pitchers, -P for all hitters) and sort by any of the columns (1 click ascending, two clicks descending).
There are two pages focused on popular hitter/pitcher stats outside of 5×5 (popularity based on our pre-season poll results). These tables are filterable/sortable as well.
- Hitting – OBP, SLG, OPS, Hits, Total Bases
- Pitching – Quality Starts, Holds, Losses
- The pitcher table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ pitchers – i.e. pitchers ranked in descending order based on the difference between their FIP and their ERA. For those wondering why I chose FIP vs. xFIP, I do not have access to the league-average fly ball to home run ratio nor pitcher HR:FB ratio. You may also find that my FIP estimates are slightly off from other sources – this is mainly because I cannot currently separate out intentional from non-intentional walks but it can also be due to how the ‘constant’ is applied to bring the league average FIP in the 3.20 range.
- The hitter table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ hitters - i.e. hitters ranked in descending order based on the difference between their current AVG and their expected AVG. A hitter’s expected AVG is calculated by applying a hitter’s 3-year BABIP to their in-season performance. 3-year BABIP was used as this stat does vary per hitter based on various factors (line drive rate, their speed, GB to FB ratio, etc.) but a hitter’s BABIP tends to be steady in the long run. Hitters with less than 100 AB in the previous 3 years are given the league average BABIP of .300.
I’ll do my best to keep these tables updated daily (generally by 10 AM EST). The last column of each chart reflects the last games included so it will be transparent when it has not been updated for a couple days. While I will do my best to keep on top of the moving pieces, please do not hesitate to provide the following information in the comments section of Grey and/or my posts:
- Any missing players from the tables (for now, I’m including any hitter/pitcher with 1+ AB or 0.1+ IP. That minimum threshold will likely increase as the year goes on.
- Any position eligibility changes based on 10 game in-season eligibility (I know Yahoo! is 5 games but prefer to make one change across both). For hitters where position eligibility seems imminent (e.g., Jesus Montero at catcher), I include the additional position and add an asterisk at the end of it.
- Any wonky data or functionality
Other potential FAQ:
- Will you ever have a ‘rest of season’ player rater?
- Maybe. Would be dependent on a respected projection source providing an uploadable file that is 1) updated on a regular basis, 2) accounts for expected playing time, and 3) is free.
- Will you create a dynamic player rater to reflect any conceivable league format?
- Not planning on it.
- Was your wife turned on by this accomplishment?
- Nope. She prefers it when I go Don Draper and fix shit around the house in a white t-shirt.