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I didn’t drop the ball on the keeper posts, things took precedence during the season.  But, guess what?  Keepers are back every Friday, so let’s talk keepers, boo.  In fact, let’s talk Starlin Castro.  That commie bastage.  In 2011, his line looked like 91/10/66/.307/22.  That was hitting third or higher (mostly leadoff) for a Cubs team that found a bread-crumbed rat in its offensive fried chicken.  You can’t argue with those numbers.  I mean, you can, but then you’d be arguing with numbers and that makes you crazy.  You may as well be wearing a suit of someone else’s hair while ripping tags off of mattresses at a department store.  Seriously, write loco on your neck and tell the pretty girl to stop looking pretty because she’s making you uncomfortable with your Hantz tattoo that is hard to read even after you spell it out for people.  So what can we expect of Starlin Castro for next year, and what makes him a 2012 fantasy baseball keeper?

With a .344 BABIP, Castro hit .307, but he wasn’t necessarily lucky.  He tends to have a slightly bloated BABIP, if the past indicates the odd future.  He will give you a .300 average every day and twice on Muesday.  He opens a portal to another world where Syd Barrett is playing guitar and BABIPs are inflated.  Truth.  Face it.  At 21 years old, Castro had 207 hits.  I remember when that meant something.  Strangely enough, I don’t remember what it meant.  Probably that the hitter got a lot of plate appearances, which Castro did — 715 PAs, which is the same amount of PAs Michael Bay had on Pearl Harbor.  I do think the 10 homers is around Castro’s ceiling for the next year or two.  Mark him down for 7 to 12 HRs. His steals last year also look about peaked.  For 2012, you’re going to get around 18 to 25.  I’m not usually a big fan of this type of player.  The type that gives his value on average and counting stats.  If he has an unlucky year, a lot of his value could go out the window.  That window being metaphorical but lined with the loveliest curtains.  What it comes back to with Castro, you’re getting him for next year cheaper than his value will be because of where you drafted him last year.  It’s all about keepers, ya’ll!  For 2012, I’d put him down for 100/8/60/.315/24.  The runs and RBIs may tweak a little from now until March depending on what the Cubs do with their offense during the offseason, but that’s pretty close to what you’re getting.  So you got fidelity for Castro?  You best.

67 Responses

  1. Racehorse says:
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    Grey-ski

    Always great to click on Razzball the moment you drop your post to the strains of ‘Shine on your Crazy Diamond’ Parts I thru IX. Doubly great to then see you included a Syd Barrett blurp. I’m a simple guy, and I luv stuff like that.

    My dynasty league doesn’t wait for the end of the world series to start trading…. so what do you think about me trading Brandon Beachy for Danny Espinosa? Yes, no, or hold?

  2. TheNewGuy says:
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    Hi Grey talking of keepers am coming down to my final keepers now.

    Next one is Madison Bumgarner. Had a very nice year for me and I definately want to keep him. Do you think he could develop into a Cole Hamels type ace as a similar type pitcher, therefore be worth keeping longer?

    My choices are 1yr ($9), 2yrs ($12), or 3yrs ($14). Which do you like the most.

  3. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    No keepers for me, so I’ll just share the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard on Baseball Tonight possibly ever. John Kruk claimed that A-Rod isn’t to blame for his postseason chokiness… that New York is to blame. His evidence? That A-Rod is relaxed and swings more free on the road, but tenses up and strangles the bat at home.

    Silly me, I thought being able to handle pressure was something the professional athlete is responsible for. Maybe I just missed the introduction to the “Opposite Sketch” segment of the show. Or perhaps I’m expecting too much of John Kruk, and it’s my fault that his opinion is whack and he spits out garbage.

  4. Hardcore Midget says:
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    Trying to decide between Castro or Jay Bruce for 2 more years as my final keeper. Also keeping Kemp, Votto, Lincecum and Desmond Jennings. Seeing as I already am keeping 2 OFs, I should keep Castro, right?

  5. Tony says:
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    @Hardcore Midget: i’d keep bruce over starlin…. draft alexie ramirez in the 12th round and you can get almost the same production as starlin, or snatch Starlin back up in the draft….

    @Awesomus Maximus: ya you’d think a guy that makes 250 million + could handle the pressure? Man im glad the yankees and boston are out of it.

  6. Kris says:
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    What the “odd future” mention referencing the LA hipster rap supergroup???
    You would think Casro’s value will continue to climb with experience (2011- age 21 season!) stacking a couple (Fielder?, David Wright?) behind him would help…

  7. I really don’t have much else to back up this claim other than my eyes (I watch a decent amount of Cubs games), but I am going to guess at some point (not sure when) Castro is going to hit around 20 HRs/year.

    He squares up so many pitches with hard hit line drives, I think that as time progresses a number of those will turn into HRs.

    Now the increase in HRs might have an inverse linear relationship with SBs, so his value between those two categories may remain somewhat stagnant.

  8. Wake Up says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: I tend to agree with the latter. I’m more surprised when he says something interesting. Not the reverse.
    It just seems like piling on with ARod at this point. Were you actually surprised when he struck out?

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Racehorse: I’d take Espinosa, but it’s fair.

    @TheNewGuy: I like him, could see keeping him for 3 years, but pitchers are pretty unpredictable so I probably wouldn’t.

    @Awesomus Maximus: Yeah, I think you are expecting too much of Kruk. Or Kruky. Or Krukster. Or whatever they call him.

    @Hardcore Midget: Keep Bruce.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Frank the Rabbit: I think he will hit 20 homers at some point too. Just not in 2012. Maybe in two or three years.

  11. Boomer19 says:
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    I have a real mixed bag for my last keeper spot in my 14 team 5×5 roto(2 catcher..ugh) league. We keep six. My keepers are Tulo, J-Up, and Braun (final contract years) and probably Haren and Cain. I have to choose my sixth keeper out of Greinke, Feliz, Hosmer, Jordan Zimmerman, Ryan Roberts, Beachy, Alex Avila, Cuddyer, Trout. I have been actively trying to trade to upgrade for another bat but seems unlikely. I hate keeping three sp’s (we draft 5 sps and 5 rps) but is greinke the smart move?

    Have a great weekend!

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Boomer19: I’d probably keep Hosmer, or trade. You have a good weekend too!

  13. bonk says:
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    I’m kind of disappointed: I was going to make a snarky comment about the Cubs needing another infielder hitting an empty .290 ohnowaittheyhavethemALL.ALL. But now it turns out that Castro had a not-terrible year, whereas Darwin Barney/Jeff Baker/Blake DeWitt couldn’t even keep up *that* crappy level of production. Feh.

    However, if I date this comment back to the end of July (not coincidentally, when this Cubs fan basically stopped paying attention to the Cubs), it works pretty well…

  14. bonk says:
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    @Grey: Let me respectfully dissent from you re: Boomer19′s keeper…I’d keep Greinke, and trade Cain for another bat if necessary. Greinke led the majors in xFIP this year with a 2.56, and struck out 10.5 batters per 9 IP vs. just 2.36 BB/9, peripherals that compare favorably to his Cy Young year. I think he’s going to blow the league away next year.

  15. Seth says:
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    Long-time reader, first-time poster. We drafted our fairly standard H2H league as a keeper league for the first this year. I can keep four:

    Votto
    Fielder
    Stanton
    C.Santana
    Assdribble
    A.Gordon
    Uggla
    Strasberg
    Lester
    and…a bunch of losers I’ll never draft again…

    Who would you keep? Any thoughts are appreciated. Thanks.

  16. Wake Up says:
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    @Grey: 55 extra base hits could suggest that power is coming at some point, but I agree that it probably will not be next year. I remember having a convo with Rudy about that earlier this year, as I thought his Castro HR projections were “a little Jamesian.” Also, I think that his HR total and his high BABIP will most likely have an inverse relationship, similar to when I dated the center on my high school’s girls basketball team. But, all the XBHs could simply mean that an increase in his Bro size is in his future.

  17. Boomer19 says:
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    @bonk: Thanks for the ideas (and of course yours Grey). I swing back and forth on these decisions. I guess that’s what the offseason is for! I can definitely get more value for Cain over Greinke now so it may be worth looking at. Any other thoughts? I’d love to package up for a high draft pick (big names like Pujols, Kemp, Verlander going back into the draft this year!) but I can’t see anyone giving one up.

    Thanks again.

  18. Boomer19 says:
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    Any thoughts on this trade offer?

    Votto/Lincecum for J-Upton/Verlander

    Which side do you like?

  19. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Actually, I have zero expectations for Krukeroni, so I don’t know why he’s blaming me.

    @Wake Up: I wouldn’t say “surprised,” but I feel bad for him more than I feel angry towards him. You’d think someone with A-Rod’s enormous talent level and experience would be able to just let that talent take over in high pressure situations.

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Boomer19: I tend to agree with Bonk. I’d go with Greinke over Cain too.

    @Seth: Votto, Fielder, Stanton, Asdrubal… Could go a number of ways with the last one.

    @Wake Up: Yeah, agreed. He’ll need to be refitted for his Bro.

    @Boomer19: Take Votto.

    @Awesomus Maximus: Ha

  21. TheNewGuy says:
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    Final keeper Grey, almost there! Gio Gonzalez, another good year aside from a rocky month or so, and another good young arm who could become great? My options are 1yr ($8), 2yrs ($11), 3yrs ($13). Go 2 years same as Mad-Bum? Thanks man!

  22. Beastdog says:
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    Shine On You Grey-zy Diamond.

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @TheNewGuy: Wish I knew how many teams were in this league… 2 years sounds about right.

    @Beastdog: Always!

  24. TheNewGuy says:
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    There’s 10 teams, mixed roto keeper :) . Thanks!

  25. royce! says:
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    Wow, T-Plush has a potty mouth.

    Other than that, what a great finish.

  26. black_toshiba says:
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    10 team h2h standard scoring(also QS cat)
    Chris Carpenter
    Jamie Hellickson
    Matt latos
    Who would u keep an why?
    Thanks

  27. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    Used fangraphs recommended xbabip calculator. It projects Castro at .347. Supports that he should maintain the .344 BABIP he sported this year.

  28. Steve says:
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    If the score stays like this I wonder if Murray Chass will call Halladay out for being unable to win the game for his team.

  29. chata says:
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    nice game !

  30. Steve says:
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    Howard performed as if it were the fantasy playoffs.

  31. chata says:
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    @Steve:

    chuckle .

  32. chata says:
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    watching the replay of ryan braun running the bases .
    he is really fast .

  33. chata says:
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    which team was it , that nyjer morgan picked a fight with ?
    was it the cards ??

  34. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: Pretty sure you picked Marcum as the NL starter in the All-Star game. You kinda suck at predictions. How bout World Series MVP?

  35. Steve says:
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    @chata: Marlins, wasn’t it?

  36. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Steve: lmao. First, the ‘ post, now Howard. Good work.

  37. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: If I were to suggest to Dan O’Dowd that he trade for a Toronto pitcher, who should I suggest? Personally, I think they’d all be undervalued. If Cecil had a solid year, he’d look like Cain-lite with all the shit hitters in the division.

  38. chata says:
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    sawx , yankees , phillies … major markets .

    world series tv ratings will be down .
    lots of football fans , now .

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: @chata: @Terrence Mann: Wow, can’t believe Philly got eliminated too. My Brewers/Tigers World Series pick in March isn’t looking too bad.

    @Terrence Mann: Romero

  40. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    yeah .
    march Grey is way smarter than you .

  41. Peter says:
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    Did you… just make a Survivor reference? Grey watches Survivor? I love Survivor! Razzball needs to make a fantasy Survivor league.

  42. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    looking at my potential keepers .

    will jesus montero have catcher eligiblity , on yahoo , for 2012 ?
    he had catcher eligibility this year , but ,

    cbs had him listed , this year , as dh …. not catcher ,
    but am not playing in any cbs leagues next year .

    so , what do you think about yahoo ??
    espn ???

    thanking you , in advance .

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: March Grey is the smartest Grey you’re gonna find. That’s why he’s March Grey.

    @Peter: Survivor’s one of my favorite shows ever. I’m actually sad more people aren’t watching it because I’m afraid it’ll get cancelled.

    @chata: He won’t start the year with catcher eligibility from what I can tell.

  44. boomer19 says:
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    Wow. I could have lost some big coin last night because I was sure Philly would win. That’s baseball.

    On the keeper front, is it safe to say you would trade either Hosmer or Cain for Stanton? Or maybe both if they were on the keeper bubble?

    Thanks yet again.

  45. black_toshiba says:
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    Who is the better keeper
    Sandoval or Lawrie?
    Thanks

  46. chata says:
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    terry francona … moving on .

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Who are you rooting for in Texas? Tigers? Rangers?

  48. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    better you should ask who i’m betting on , and then make a killing
    playing the opposite .

    over-all i’m rooting for texas , but i bet on the tigers in the 1st game .

    kinda bummed that arizona lost , ‘cuz i’ve been following them very closely for the past two years .
    kinda ashamed to admit it , but unless the A’s are playing a major market team , i usually watch the d-back games on the late night venue …. i like
    their broadcast team and aura .

    this is the 1st year that i didn’t load up my fantasy teams with rangers players , opting instead to draft/pick-up 3 guys each from the d-backs
    and brewers .

    who you got ?

  49. chata says:
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    man …. those ranger slickers that the fans are wearing are
    reminiscent of uglier times .

  50. chata says:
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    @chata:

    maybe a design change would be appropriate .

  51. Black Beard says:
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    6×5 (plus OPS), ten team, 7 keeper:

    Prince and A-Rod for Bautista and Andrus?

  52. chata says:
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    is eric karros that guy that causes havoc on those
    insurance commercials ?
    doppelganger ??

  53. Black Beard says:
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    @chata: Don’t think so, I would have enjoyed the rain delays much more had that been the case.

  54. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Yeah, I love the Diamondbacks broadcast team, but I want Tigers vs. Brewers just so my preseason picks pan out.

    @Black Beard: Prince side, pretty close.

  55. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    yeah .
    that was a great pre-season selection .

    best i had was pirates finishing ahead of astros and cubs .

  56. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: Thanks Grey. What if it was Prince and A-Rod for Bautista and Stanton?

  57. black_toshiba says:
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    Stubbs
    Maybin
    Aybar
    Choo
    Ackley
    Hardey
    Romero
    M Rivera
    Storen
    Which 3 would u keep?
    Thanks

  58. black_toshiba says:
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    got another keeper question for u sir
    12 team standard 5*5 roto
    my keepers as of now are
    Longo & Pedrioa
    I need one more; here are my options
    Cruz, Crawford, Pence & Harren
    which would u roll with?
    thanks

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Maybe my best preseason prediction ever as far as real baseball. Can you tell I’m proud? Now really make me proud Brewers and Tigers!

    @Black Beard: Stanton side

    @black_toshiba: Stubbs, Romero, Ackley

    @black_toshiba: Cruz

  60. Dude says:
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    Grey,
    Do you have any recommendations for websites that give you a laugh? I need some humor to fill the void until Razzball baseball gears up again…

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dude: I don’t read the internet. I’m probably gonna attempt to watch all Breaking Bad episodes during the offseason from 1st season on, since I haven’t seen any.

  62. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    i didn’t like castro at draft time .
    didn’t like watching him not give 100% on the field .

    but , if i were to change my opinion ,
    would that make me a castro convertible ?

  63. Dude says:
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    Thanks for the reply, Grey. I need to check out that show myself.

Comments are closed.